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David Eastman, KP CHR Southeast, Atlanta, GA
     Don Bachman, MS, KP CHR, Portland, OR
  Daniel Ng, BSE, MBA, KP DOR, Oakland, CA
           Wei Tao, MS, KP DOR, Oakland, CA
Topics
 Background
 Survey of death data sources
   The SOURCE variable
 Methods of weaving death data together
   The CONFIDENCE variable
 Inter-source agreement analysis at KPGA
 VDW death data QA program preliminary findings
   Sprinkled throughout
Background
 VDW death files contain:
   Dates of death
     Qualifiers - data source, confidence, date
      imputation flag
    Causes of death
 Typically VDW sites have access to multiple
  sources of death data
 How data are woven together varies considerably
Death Data Sources
 HMO Membership
   Clarity Patient table
   Common membership
 Hospital Discharges
 State Death Certificates
 Social Security Administration
 National Death Index
 Tumor Data
 Clarity “Death Notes”
HMO Death Data: Pros and Cons
 Pros
   No probabilistic matching; unlikely to be the wrong person
   Gold standard at some HMOs
 Cons
   No cause of death information
   No inactive (prior) member deaths; death after disenrollment
    will probably be missed
   At some HMOs, family/employer must notify HMO; less
    rigorously reported & dates may be inaccurate.
   At other sites, hospital, home health and hospice care are well
    integrated in the EMR and provide very reliable death dates.
   At some sites, this method is more prone to false negatives
    than Gov’t data
Gov’t Death Data: Pros and Cons
 Pros
    HMO enrollment status at time of death is irrelevant; death after
     disenrollment more likely to be captured if it is part of the matching
     algorithm
    Some gov’t sources contain cause of death information
 Cons
    Probabalistic matching on names/dates/SSN/etc.; wrong person may
     get matched. Some sites cannot match on SSN which makes the
     method less reliable.
    Some sites do the matching themselves, some only get matches from
     the gov’t
    May be more far reaching than HMO data, but may not include
     deaths outside of HMO’s state(s)
    At some sites, this method is more prone to false positives than HMO
     data
The SOURCE Variable
 Spec definition: Source of death data?
 Spec values:
   S = State Death files
   N = National Death Index
   T = Tumor data
   Others are locally defined
 Based on preliminary QA results from 7 sites:
   5 sites use the State Death files (S)
   1 site uses National Death Index data (N)
   2 sites use the Tumor data (T)
   7 sites include “other” local codes
Methods of Weaving Death Data
Together
 Descriptions of methods used at:
   KPGA
   KPNC
   KPNW
KPGA Method - Step 1
Merge all possible death data into a research data
 warehouse table
KPGA Method – Step 2
Select the “best quality” data to populate the VDW


HMO sources favored
 (vs. Gov’t sources)

Confidence variable:
 source agreement &
 postmortem activity
KPNC Method
1.    Input Pre-Processing
      Combine member records containing demographic variables, contact dates,
        and membership dates
2.    QualityStage matching
      Probabilistic matching of KPNC members to CA state and SSA death records
3.    Initial Filtering
      Filter large number of match output records down to manageable size
      Resulting files (KPNC-CA and KPNC-SSA matches) have multiple matches
        per MRN
4.    Ranking & Selection
      Select the single, best match per MRN based on weighted comparison of
        match linkweights, demographic vars, and contact and membership dates
5.    Assign Final Variables
      Select best Death date
      Assign scores for overall confidence and confidence of CA and SSA matches
KPNW Method - Part 1
Internal KP data: only use reliable sources
 1. Patient table from Clarity. Most reliable & best source of death
     dates based on internal validation and subsequent CESR QA.
 2. Common Membership including a specific death table (older
     sources don’t include death dates, but do correctly identify dead
     patients)
 3. KPNW tumor registry
 4. Probabilistic match of KP members to OR and WA state data by
     CHR Staff (unlike other many other sites).
     OR & WA state don’t do the matching and won’t share SSNs.
     CHR staff match members from the past 2 years to the state
        data. Only current source of cause of death. 18-36 month
        lag.
KPNW Method - Part 2
 Been creating death files for several years
 Death files only include those who we believe have
    truly died
   Death dates from KP internal data appear very
    reliable based on CESR QA
   Death dates from the Tumor Registry and state data
    are also excellent but not as good as internal KP data
   Death more than 2 years after disenrollment will
    probably be missed with current system
   Would benefit from switching to a common HMORN
    confidence variable algorithm
The CONFIDENCE Variable
 Spec definition: “How you rate the accuracy of the
  observation based on source, match, # of reporting sources,
  discrepancies, etc.”
 Spec values: E=Excellent, F=Fair, P=Poor
 Based on preliminary QA results from 7 sites,
     by site:
    % E ranges from 20% to 100%
    % F ranges from 0% to 55%
    % P ranges from 0% to 50%
    % E + %F ranges from 50% to 100%
 The CONFIDENCE variable is inconsistently implemented!
The CONFIDENCE Variable
 What does the confidence variable measure?
   Likelihood of death?
   Accuracy of the death date?
   Likelihood that the cause of death information
   is linked to the correct person?
Inter-source Agreement Analysis at
KPGA
 Where do data come from?
 Corroborated deaths
 Inter-source death date agreement
 Postmortem activity
 Confidence distribution
Where Do Data Come From? (KPGA)
Corroborated Deaths (KPGA)
Inter-source Death Date Agreement
(KPGA)
Postmortem Activity (KPGA)
Confidence Distribution (KPGA)
Recommendations
 Create new confidence variables
   Confidence that the patient is really dead
   Confidence in the death date
   Confidence in the linkage to external source data
      KPNC has implemented these as local variables
 Develop a common algorithm to determine the
 values of these confidence variables to give them a
 common meaning.
Any Questions?

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Weaving Death Data Sources for Accuracy

  • 1. David Eastman, KP CHR Southeast, Atlanta, GA Don Bachman, MS, KP CHR, Portland, OR Daniel Ng, BSE, MBA, KP DOR, Oakland, CA Wei Tao, MS, KP DOR, Oakland, CA
  • 2. Topics  Background  Survey of death data sources  The SOURCE variable  Methods of weaving death data together  The CONFIDENCE variable  Inter-source agreement analysis at KPGA  VDW death data QA program preliminary findings  Sprinkled throughout
  • 3. Background  VDW death files contain:  Dates of death  Qualifiers - data source, confidence, date imputation flag  Causes of death  Typically VDW sites have access to multiple sources of death data  How data are woven together varies considerably
  • 4. Death Data Sources  HMO Membership  Clarity Patient table  Common membership  Hospital Discharges  State Death Certificates  Social Security Administration  National Death Index  Tumor Data  Clarity “Death Notes”
  • 5. HMO Death Data: Pros and Cons  Pros  No probabilistic matching; unlikely to be the wrong person  Gold standard at some HMOs  Cons  No cause of death information  No inactive (prior) member deaths; death after disenrollment will probably be missed  At some HMOs, family/employer must notify HMO; less rigorously reported & dates may be inaccurate.  At other sites, hospital, home health and hospice care are well integrated in the EMR and provide very reliable death dates.  At some sites, this method is more prone to false negatives than Gov’t data
  • 6. Gov’t Death Data: Pros and Cons  Pros  HMO enrollment status at time of death is irrelevant; death after disenrollment more likely to be captured if it is part of the matching algorithm  Some gov’t sources contain cause of death information  Cons  Probabalistic matching on names/dates/SSN/etc.; wrong person may get matched. Some sites cannot match on SSN which makes the method less reliable.  Some sites do the matching themselves, some only get matches from the gov’t  May be more far reaching than HMO data, but may not include deaths outside of HMO’s state(s)  At some sites, this method is more prone to false positives than HMO data
  • 7. The SOURCE Variable  Spec definition: Source of death data?  Spec values:  S = State Death files  N = National Death Index  T = Tumor data  Others are locally defined  Based on preliminary QA results from 7 sites:  5 sites use the State Death files (S)  1 site uses National Death Index data (N)  2 sites use the Tumor data (T)  7 sites include “other” local codes
  • 8. Methods of Weaving Death Data Together  Descriptions of methods used at:  KPGA  KPNC  KPNW
  • 9. KPGA Method - Step 1 Merge all possible death data into a research data warehouse table
  • 10. KPGA Method – Step 2 Select the “best quality” data to populate the VDW HMO sources favored (vs. Gov’t sources) Confidence variable: source agreement & postmortem activity
  • 11. KPNC Method 1. Input Pre-Processing  Combine member records containing demographic variables, contact dates, and membership dates 2. QualityStage matching  Probabilistic matching of KPNC members to CA state and SSA death records 3. Initial Filtering  Filter large number of match output records down to manageable size  Resulting files (KPNC-CA and KPNC-SSA matches) have multiple matches per MRN 4. Ranking & Selection  Select the single, best match per MRN based on weighted comparison of match linkweights, demographic vars, and contact and membership dates 5. Assign Final Variables  Select best Death date  Assign scores for overall confidence and confidence of CA and SSA matches
  • 12. KPNW Method - Part 1 Internal KP data: only use reliable sources 1. Patient table from Clarity. Most reliable & best source of death dates based on internal validation and subsequent CESR QA. 2. Common Membership including a specific death table (older sources don’t include death dates, but do correctly identify dead patients) 3. KPNW tumor registry 4. Probabilistic match of KP members to OR and WA state data by CHR Staff (unlike other many other sites).  OR & WA state don’t do the matching and won’t share SSNs.  CHR staff match members from the past 2 years to the state data. Only current source of cause of death. 18-36 month lag.
  • 13. KPNW Method - Part 2  Been creating death files for several years  Death files only include those who we believe have truly died  Death dates from KP internal data appear very reliable based on CESR QA  Death dates from the Tumor Registry and state data are also excellent but not as good as internal KP data  Death more than 2 years after disenrollment will probably be missed with current system  Would benefit from switching to a common HMORN confidence variable algorithm
  • 14. The CONFIDENCE Variable  Spec definition: “How you rate the accuracy of the observation based on source, match, # of reporting sources, discrepancies, etc.”  Spec values: E=Excellent, F=Fair, P=Poor  Based on preliminary QA results from 7 sites, by site:  % E ranges from 20% to 100%  % F ranges from 0% to 55%  % P ranges from 0% to 50%  % E + %F ranges from 50% to 100%  The CONFIDENCE variable is inconsistently implemented!
  • 15. The CONFIDENCE Variable  What does the confidence variable measure?  Likelihood of death?  Accuracy of the death date?  Likelihood that the cause of death information is linked to the correct person?
  • 16. Inter-source Agreement Analysis at KPGA  Where do data come from?  Corroborated deaths  Inter-source death date agreement  Postmortem activity  Confidence distribution
  • 17. Where Do Data Come From? (KPGA)
  • 19. Inter-source Death Date Agreement (KPGA)
  • 22. Recommendations  Create new confidence variables  Confidence that the patient is really dead  Confidence in the death date  Confidence in the linkage to external source data  KPNC has implemented these as local variables  Develop a common algorithm to determine the values of these confidence variables to give them a common meaning.