1. Jacob Gross*1
Tomoaki Muira1
Jonathan Deenik2
John Yanagida1
Russell Yost2
1Dept. of Natural Resource and
Environmental Management (NREM)
2Dept. of Tropical Plant and Soil Sciences
College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources
(CTAHR)

2. CTAHR Database & Geoportal
Centralize data relevant to
natural resource
management in Hawaii
Organize information to
support land use evaluation
and decision making
Provide user access to
information
2
Users
CTAHR
Database
Local Server
Geoportal

3. How will climate change impact agricultural land suitability in
Hawaii?
Temperature and Rainfall
Crop specific:
 Coffee
 Macadamia, Papaya,
Sweet potato, Cacao, Tea
3
Geoportal
Application
(late 21st century)
Research Objective:
Compare present land suitability vs. future land suitability

4. 2013 HI Rainfall Atlas
1978-2007 (250m)
Specific
Crop
Mean Total Rainfall
(Monthly or Annual)
Min & Max Temp
(Monthly)
Temperature Dataset
1971-2000 (500m)
Hawaii Regional
Climate Model
(HRCM)
SSURGO
Variable Size Polygons
Slope
USGS DEM
(10m)
Soil Drainage
Soil Depth
Soil pH
Minimum Score
2080-
2099

5. Evaluation procedure adapted from
Ramirez-Villegas et al. 2011
5
Crop Ecological
Requirements
Environmental
Datasets (Rasters)
Suitability Map
(Raster)
ArcGIS Python Script

6. PRESENT
FUTURE
2080 - 2099
Suitability
Score
Coffee

7. Major Crop
Locations
Core Crop
Lands
Melrose and Delparte 2012
North Kohala
Waimea
Hamakua
North Hilo
South Hilo
Keeau
Pahoa
Kau
Ocean View
Kona

8. Current Coffee Fields
Pahoa
Keaau
South Hilo
North Hilo
Hamakua
Waimea
North Kohala
Kona
Ocean View
Kau
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Weighted Mean Difference in Suitability Score
(per hectare)

9. Future rainfall and temperature estimates support
continued coffee production in the majority of
established locations on the Big Island.
Coffee crops in Hilo, Puna, and Hamakua districts
could experience production limitations caused by
increases in temperature and rainfall, especially if
related problems already exist .
9

10. Traditional rain-fed systems on Hawai`I
Sweet potato (`uala)
Kagawa and Vitousek (2012) Evaluated rain-fed dryland
agriculture
 Leeward Kohala Field System (LKFS)
Production locations likely shifted seasonally
 Lower elevation = winter crops
 Upper elevation = spring and summer crops

11. Sweet Potato
Optimal Season
Leeward Kohala
Field System

12. Sweet Potato
Optimal Season
Leeward Kohala
Field System

13. GIS crop suitability model can provide decision support materials
for Farmers & Planners:
 System is adaptable
 Adjustments to crop requirements
 New environmental datasets
 Can be applied to crops not currently grown in Hawaii
13

14. Acknowledgements
Funding Source:
Agribusiness Development Corporation
- Hawaii State Dept. of Agriculture
Climate Change Projections:
International Pacific Research Center
Dr. Kevin Hamilton
Dr. Chunxi Zhang
Coffee Extension Specialist:
Dr. Skip Bittenbender -CTAHR
CTAHR GeoPortal IT:
Nathan Dorman
Elsie Kawahara
http://gis.ctahr.hawaii.edu/

15. Sources Cited
 Giambelluca, Thomas W, Diaz, Henry F, & Luke, Mark SA. (2008).
Secular temperature changes in Hawai‘i. Geophysical Research
Letters, 35(12).
 Lauer, Axel, Zhang, Chunxi, Elison-Timm, Oliver, Wang, Yuqing, &
Hamilton, Kevin. (2013). Downscaling of Climate Change in the
Hawaii Region Using CMIP5 Results: On the Choice of the Forcing
Fields*. Journal of Climate, 26(24).
 Melrose, J, & Delparte, D. (2012). Hawai'i County Food Self-
Sufficiency Baseline 2012 (G. a. E. S. Department, Trans.): University
of Hawai'i at Hilo.
 Ramirez-Villegas, Julian, Jarvis, Andy, & Laderach, Peter. (2013).
Empirical approaches for assessing impacts of climate change on
agriculture: The EcoCrop model and a case study with grain
sorghum. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 170, 67-78.
 Timm, Oliver, & Diaz, Henry F. (2009). Synoptic-statistical approach
to regional downscaling of IPCC twenty-first-century climate
projections: seasonal rainfall over the Hawaiian Islands. Journal of
Climate, 22(16).
 Timm, Oliver, Takahashi, Mami, Giambelluca, Thomas W, & Diaz,
Henry F. (2013). On the relation between large‐scale circulation
pattern and heavy rain events over the Hawaiian Islands: Recent
trends and future changes. Journal of Geophysical Research:
Atmospheres, 118(10), 4129-4141.

16. 16
1. Rainfall
2. Temperature
3. Soil Drainage
4. Soil Depth
5. Soil pH
6. Slope
High Spatial
Variability
• Topography
• Substrate Age
• Climate
Natural Environmental
Conditions

17. Temperature
 Increasing Temperatures (Lauer et al. 2013)
 RCP4.5 (1.2 ˚- 2.9˚ C)
 RCP8.5 (2.3 ˚- 4.9˚ C)
 Stronger warming at higher elevations (Giambelluca et al. 2008)
Rainfall
 Increase in overall rainfall (~5%) (Timm and Diaz 2009)
 Increased drought in drier areas (Timm et al. 2013)
 ↑summer precipitation ↓winter precipitation (Timm and Diaz 2009)
 Increased risk of widespread heavy rain events is low (Timm et al. 2013)
 *High uncertainty in rainfall estimates (Lauer et al. 2013)
17

18. Agricultural Suitability Classification in Hawaii
1963-1972 LSB Hawaii Land Study Bureau
(University of Hawaii)
1957-1972 LCC Land Capability Classification – (USDA)
1977 ALISH Agricultural Lands of Importance to the State of
Hawaii – (USDA, Hawaii State Board of Agriculture)
1978-1986 LESA Hawaii Land Evaluation and Site Assessment
(HI LESA Commission)
18
1986-2007 HNRIS Hawaii Natural Resources Information System –
(CTAHR)

19. 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100
Hectares
% Suitability
Pahoa
CURRENT
FUTURE

20. 0
1000
2000
3000
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100
Hectares
% Suitability
Ka'u
CURRENT
FUTURE

21. 0
1000
2000
3000
4000
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100
Hectares
% Suitability
Kona
CURRENT
FUTURE