Impact of biofuel production on world nitrogen fertilizer demand: current situation and outlook, Patrick Heffer, IFA, International Fertilizer Industry Association. http://www.fertilizer.org 5th International Nitrogen Conference, INI 2010, New Delhi India

1. 09/12/2010
IMPACT OF BIOFUEL PRODUCTION
ON WORLD NITROGEN FERTILIZER
DEMAND: CURRENT SITUATION
AND OUTLOOK
Patrick Heffer, IFA
5th International Nitrogen Conference
3-7 December 2010, New Delhi, India
Contents
 Biofuel production: current situation and outlook
 Main feedstocks used for biofuel production
 Nitrogen fertilizer use by crop
 Nitrogen use efficiency: current trend and outlook
 Anticipated evolution of fertilizer use by crop
 Nitrogen fertilizer application to biofuel feedstocks
o Current situation
o Outlook to 2019
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Biofuel Production:
Current Situation and Outlook
Outlook for World Ethanol and
Biodiesel Production (billion liters)
74.3 Bl ethanol + 158.8 Bl ethanol +
15.2 Bl biodiesel 41.2 Bl biodiesel
in 2007-09 in 2019
2007-09: 86% of the
ethanol output used
as biofuel
2019: 93% of the
ethanol output to be
used as biofuel
Source: OECD-FAO
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3. 09/12/2010
Outlook for World Ethanol and
Biodiesel Production (billion liters)
US ethanol + Brazilian ethanol +
EU ethanol + EU biodiesel =
Source: OECD-FAO • 82% of total output in 2007-09
• 81% of total output in 2019
Main Feedstocks Used
for Biofuel Production
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4. 09/12/2010
World Ethanol Production by
Feedstock
Source: OECD-FAO
World Biodiesel Production by
Feedstock
Source: OECD-FAO
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5. 09/12/2010
Share of Feedstocks Used for Biofuel
Production from Global Production
Source: OECD-FAO
Share of Feedstocks Used for Biofuel
Production from Total Production
Ethanol Feedstocks Biodiesel Feedstocks
62%
88%
37%
Source: FAPRI
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6. 09/12/2010
Nitrogen Fertilizer Use by Crop
N Fertilizer Use by Crop at
the Global Level in 2007/08
Source: IFA
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7. 09/12/2010
N Fertilizer Use by Crop in Biofuel
Producing Countries in 2007/08
Source: IFA
Nitrogen Use Efficiency:
Current Trend and Outlook
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8. 09/12/2010
N Fertilizer Use Efficiency (PFPN)
in Maize Production in the USA
Source: Snyder (2009)
N Fertilizer Use Efficiency (PFPN)
in Sugar Cane Production in Brazil
Source: Cunha and Prochnow (unpublished data)
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Evolution* of N Fertilizer Deliveries
vs. Grain Production in France
cereal + rapeseed production
N fertilizer deliveries (*) relative evolution (1990 = 100)
Source: UNIFA
Anticipated Evolution of
Nitrogen Fertilizer Use by Crop
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10. 09/12/2010
Anticipated Evolution of N Fertilizer
Use by Crop (for ethanol feedstocks)
Share of Total Domestic
N Fertilizer Consumption (%) Volume (Mt N)
Source: IFA
Anticipated Evolution of N Fertilizer
Use by Crop (for biodiesel feedstocks)
Share of Total Domestic
N Fertilizer Consumption (%) Volume (Mt N)
Source: IFA
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11. 09/12/2010
Nitrogen Fertilizer Applications
to Biofuel Feedstocks:
Current Situation
Total N Fertilizer Use in the Main
Biofuel-Producing Countries (Mt N)
Source: IFA
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12. 09/12/2010
Fertilizer Applications to Biofuel
Feedstocks in 2008/09 (Mt nutrients)
3.0% of world consumption
4.8%
2.5%
Source: IFA
Nitrogen Fertilizer Applications
to Biofuel Feedstocks:
Outlook to 2019
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13. 09/12/2010
N Fertilizer Applications to Ethanol
Feedstocks (Mt N)
N Fertilizer Applications to Ethanol
Feedstocks (Mt N)
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14. 09/12/2010
N Fertilizer Applications to Biodiesel
Feedstocks (Mt N)
World N Fertilizer Applications to
Total Biofuel Feedstocks (Mt N)
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15. 09/12/2010
for questions/comments:
pheffer@fertilizer.org
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