4. 11
10.6
High
10
Medium
Low
9 8.9
8
Population (in billions)
7.4
7
6.1
6
5
4
3 2.5
2
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
UN Population Projections
5. Africa
Asia
10 Latin America and the Caribbean
Oceania
9 Northern America
Europe
8
Population (in billions)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2250 2250 2300
UN Population Projections by Region
9. Food supply improvements. Public health
improvements. Decline in infectious disease.
Health education. Literacy. Living Costs.
Urbanization. Value Systems.
Influencing Factors
10. 65
Age
Male Female
15
Stage 1: Expanding Stage 2: Expanding Stage 3: Stationary Stage 4: Contracting
Developing Developed
Population Pyramids
11. Stag
e Country 2003 Birth 2003 Death 2011 Birth 2011 Death
1 Nigeria 38 13.7 35.5 16
Guatemal
2 a 35 6.7 26.9 4.9
3 Mexico 21.9 4.9 19.1 4.8
4 Sweden 9.7 10.5 10.1 10.2
Stages and Example Data
12. Climate Change.
Food Preferences.
Resource
Constraints.
Energy.
Global Implications
18. Literacy
Variable
The Model with Literacy Variable
19. Selected Variables
4
4
6B
2
2
3B
0
0
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40
Time (Year)
Daughter to Mother ratio : Nigeria_education
Daughter to Mother ratio : Nigeria
Desired BR : Nigeria_education
Desired BR : Nigeria
Total pop : Nigeria_education
Total pop : Nigeria
BOT with Literacy Variable compared
20. Total pop
6B
4.5 B
3B
1.5 B
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40
Time (Year)
Total pop : Nigeria_education
Total pop : Nigeria
Total Population BOT with Variable
The systems model developed considers the following variables and behaviors as key in understanding the essential theory of the demographic transition. First, the amount of females is broken up into 11 different stocks ranging from “Age 0-4” to “Age 50 and Up”. The incremental stocks, or cohort breakdowns, were determined by (A) infant mortality rate and (B) female reproductive changes that take place between “Ages 15-19”. (See Endnote ? for a detailed variable list). On the right side of the model, each cohort stock is linked to a “Death Rate”, “Age Specific Mortality Rate (ASMR)”, and “Deaths”, which in turn determine the number of “Survivors” per cohort. The crude death rate is defined as the total number of deaths per year per 1000 people. Whereas the ASMR is refers to the total number of deaths per year per 1000 people of a given age. Since we wanted to manipulate the model, the ASMR feeds into the crude death rate and is combined in turn with a general mortality factor. So, for instance if a new technology is introduced within society we can observe its impact by altering the “General Mortality Factor” variable. The left side of the model is focused on “Desired Family Size” and the “Birth Rate”. Beginning at cohort, “Age 15-19”, birth rate per cohort is determined by factoring in the “Desired Birth Rate” which stems from “Desired Family Size”. The “Mother to Daughter Ratio” influences the “Net Change” in “Desired Family Size”. When daughters observe that less infants make it to adulthood they are inclined to have a greater number of children. Conversely, when accounting for decreases in birth rates, as more infants live to adulthood and it costs more to have a child the “Desired Family Size” decreases.