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MarketShare
THIRD QUARTER 2011




A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RESIDENTIAL
REAL ESTATE MARKET IN THE VANCOUVER LOWER MAINLAND
OCTOBER 2011
TABLE OF
CONTENTS


           WELCOME TO MARKETSHARE                                   1

           RESEARCH METHODOLOGY                                    2

           OVERALL – MARKET SUMMARY                                3

           MARKET SUMMARIES

              Vancouver – Downtown                                 4
              Vancouver – West                                     5
              Vancouver – East                                     6
              Richmond/South Delta/Tsawwassen                      7
              Burnaby/New Westminster                              8
              North Shore: North Vancouver & West Vancouver        9
              Tri-Cities: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam & Port Moody   10
              Ridge Meadows: Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows            11
              Surrey Central/North Delta                           12
              South Surrey/White Rock                              13
              Cloverdale/Langley                                   14

           WHAT TO WATCH                                           15




                                                                        THIRD QUARTER 2011
WELCOME TO
MarketShare


As our team gathered to review and discuss our view                              Finally, as I mentioned in the last edition of MarketShare we have
                                                                                 committed to a long-term approach in building sales distribution channels
of the markets this past quarter, we were again
                                                                                 in China for both Vancouver and Toronto developers to satisfy what we
inspired to see such buoyant activity in Toronto and
                                                                                 believe will be sustained demand. We are increasing the size of our teams
Vancouver while economies around the world are                                   in this market, investing in technology, people development and
experiencing such volatility.                                                    communication infrastructure and building multiple partnerships with
                                                                                 banks, immigration agencies as well as with other real estate agencies.
The global macroeconomic view continues to lean towards the negative
                                                                                 Our aim is to be the ‘go to’ organization for Canadian real estate in China.
side. Depending on which economist you follow, the U.S. and Europe will
                                                                                 This year our teams in Hong Kong, Singapore and China have already sold
resolve their current issues soon and the world will ‘get back to business’
                                                                                 over USD $400 million of UK and Australian product. Together we are
or, they won’t. How the U.S. and multiple countries in Europe can run their
                                                                                 now expanding the market for Canadian product. We believe the best
finances into the ground with debt is simply mind-boggling (where’s their
                                                                                 approach to maximize success for Canadian developers in China is a
proforma?). What is even more amazing is that when they try to address the
                                                                                 long-term sustained approach as opposed to a “launch and leave”. For
problems, political partisanship and self-interest seemingly get in the way of
                                                                                 the right projects, we believe this is a long-term sales channel for
constructive and corrective action.
                                                                                 Canadian real estate but it is not a quick fix problem project solver.
While the global economy continues to experience many issues, the
                                                                                 In summary, while the global economy has caused angst over the past
Vancouver Lower Mainland real estate market continues to demonstrate
                                                                                 month or so the Vancouver Lower Mainland real estate market continues
resilience and reinforces that ‘this is the place to be’ for real estate
                                                                                 to perform steadily and assuming no major global economic meltdown we
developers. Low interest rates and an influx of new buyers into the market
                                                                                 expect it to continue.
will help to sustain this resilience. With current global economic challenges
expected to keep interest rates low into the foreseeable future, the             I hope you enjoy this edition of MarketShare and as always we welcome
Vancouver Lower Mainland is a great place to be a real estate buyer as well.     your thoughts and comments.

Looking ahead, we do however see challenges in the local market
surrounding the need for affordable housing options. In talking to our
colleagues in land sales the limited supply of quality new development sites
is resulting in escalating land prices. The higher the price for land, the
greater the price the buyer will be required to pay. At the same time the
number of active and planned projects may push construction costs higher,        Greg Ashley
again resulting in higher sales prices for the buyer. This situation will        PRESIDENT AND MANAGING PARTNER,
necessitate innovation. We are beginning to see this innovation on the           COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING
development side - more efficient floor plans and reduced parking being two
of them. If one lives close to transit or downtown and does not require a car
why does a developer have to build or provide the buyer a parking space?
And if one does have a car, there are under-utilized parking structures that
would be happy to offer long-term leases as an option to purchasing a
residence without parking. Our team is currently working on an innovative
project in Chinatown that offers exactly this.




THIRD QUARTER 2011                                                                                                                                              1
RESEARCH
Methodology


Urban Analytics (UAI) is Metro-Vancouver’s leading                                 buildings/projects. In all instances active sales range quoted in tables is
                                                                                   defined as “The active sales range in which 75 percent of sales of this product
source for analytical interpretation of relevant real
                                                                                   type occurred”.
estate market data, trends and strategic
recommendations.                                                                   This quarter we were also interested to find out how the rejection of the
                                                                                   HST and the ensuing uncertainty was impacting the new home market.
Urban Analytics Inc. (UAI) was engaged by Colliers to provide aggregate            We found that the impact has been modest on lower priced product.
data on the multi-family residential real estate market in the Vancouver           However, product priced between $525,000 and $1 million that completes
Lower Mainland.                                                                    prior to February 2013 appears to be getting hit the hardest. That said,
                                                                                   most end-user buyers (and many realtors) seeking product priced under
The methodology used to collect the data was as follows:
                                                                                   the $525,000 threshold simply don’t understand how the tax applies. So
GENERAL PARAMETERS                                                                 to avoid the confusion and encourage purchasing, many developers are
Vancouver Lower Mainland refers to the area from West Vancouver to                 now including the HST in the price. The provincial government must
Aldergrove. The focus of this study is limited to the multi-family market.         provide clarity on this issue swiftly.

MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA – NEW HOME SALES                                         Finally, with the continued “bubble” talk by economists based thousands
The primary method used to collect information is a personal visit to each         of miles from here, our analysts made a conscious effort to determine the
project being actively marketed. In addition to collecting current sales           amount of standing inventory and assess whether these concerns are
information, UAI representatives engage on-site sales staff to determine           warranted. We do not think they are as a) inventory levels do not present
additional relevant information such as incentive offerings, traffic trends and    a concern at this time, b) any speculative buying that is typical of a
active buyer profiles. In all instances active sales range quoted in tables is     growing bubble represents a microscopic fraction of the total buying
defined as “The per square foot sales range in which 75 percent of sales of this   activity taking place today and c) investors are taking a much longer term
product type occurred”.                                                            approach with their purchases, unlike 2006 to 2008 when most investors
                                                                                   had no intention – and in many cases no ability – to close on their
For the purposes of the MarketShare publications, UAI contacts various
                                                                                   purchases.
municipal planning departments along with developers (and/or their
representatives) of proposed new developments to determine the                     We hope you find this aggregate data combined with Colliers’
anticipated timing of their approval and marketing launch.                         analysis, observations and opinions thought provoking.


MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA – RESALE
The resale market provides an important barometer from which to assess
demand and determine pricing for new home projects. Accordingly, UAI
                                                                                   Michael Ferreira
closely monitors the resale market for multi-family homes in order to
                                                                                   PRINCIPAL, URBAN ANALYTICS INC.
identify trends that are relevant to the new home sector. However, the
breadth and depth of product for sale can create findings that are less than
helpful to the new home developer. As a result, UAI recommends studying
only product that is aged ten years or newer and valued at less than $1.2
million. While it could be argued that limiting the analysis to newer product
                                                                                   urban
                                                                                    A N A LY T I C S I N C

(i.e. five years or newer) would be more relevant to the new home sector,
we believe this would limit the sample size and potentially skew the data
towards a specific type of product available in a small number of specific         www.urbananalytics.ca



THIRD QUARTER 2011                                                                                                                                                   2
OVERALL – SUMMARY
VANCOUVER LOWER MAINLAND

As expected, Third Quarter sales were slower than the previous two quarters.        Finally, given the slower season and increased competition in markets
However, even accounting for the usual seasonal dip in sales during this            where the predominant buyer is an end user, such as Langley/Cloverdale
quarter, a total of 2,315 units were sold which is up 40 percent from the same      and Central Surrey/North Delta, a number of projects offered price-
quarter in 2010. Year to date, 9,681 units have been sold, or 108 percent of        reducing incentives while other of more centrally located projects worked
2010’s total sales volume. Our prediction of 12,000+ units sold in 2011             to generate sales through increased realtor commissions.
appears to be attainable.
                                                                                    RESALE MARKET:

Sales at new and high profile projects in False Creek, UBC, South Vancouver,        This past quarter, 1,792 multi-family homes were sold on MLS. Sales were

Richmond, Coquitlam, and South Surrey contributed greatly as did continued          up 48 percent over this same period last year. The increase was across all

demand for townhome product in all markets. Reasonably strong traffic and           product types with high rise representing the lowest increase at 22 percent,

sales activity during the first part of the quarter was reported. However,          low rise sales increasing by 70 percent and townhome sales increasing by

traffic and sales slowed towards the end of August and through September.           76 percent. However, when compared to the torrid pace of the Second
                                                                                    Quarter, sales were off 30 percent as a whole. Overall Third Quarter sales
Overall unsold inventory levels in the Lower Mainland were reduced by               were distributed across all product types as indicated in the following table.
approximately 10 percent in the Third Quarter relative to Second Quarter of
this year. Like many buyers, Mainland Chinese investors and end users were
                                                                                                                         HIGH RISE       LOW RISE       TOWNHOME         TOTALS
somewhat less active overall except for in key markets such as UBC.
                                                                                     Total Third Quarter Sales               722            478             592            1,792
Surprisingly, the first time or entry level buyer remained active taking
advantage of developer incentives and low interest rates.                            Total Active Listings                  1,961           1,403           1,458         4,822

NEW HOME MARKET:
                                                                                    THE QUARTER AHEAD:
In the Third Quarter 36 percent of sales occurred at high rise projects, which is
                                                                                    The Fourth Quarter of 2010 proved to be the most active sales period for
a 20 percent decrease compared to the previous quarter. Low rise sales
                                                                                    that year. This year, we think that it is unlikely we will see the same number
represented 38 percent of sales, which is up 12 percent from the previous
                                                                                    of sales due to the limited number of projects likely to launch in the Fourth
quarter while townhome sales increased by 6 percent to 26 percent. Of the
                                                                                    Quarter. We do however, still expect a positive quarter and continue to
7,067 units of inventory available to purchase 2,130 are complete with three
                                                                                    project annual sales of 12,000+ units.
projects accounting for approximately 31 percent of the completed and unsold
inventory. Active projects decreased by approximately 2 percent. Overall Third
Quarter performance across all product types is summarized in the following
table.
                                HIGH RISE   LOW RISE    TOWNHOME      TOTALS

 Total Third Quarter Sales         825         893          597        2,315

 Total Inventory                  3,484       2,404         1,179      7,067        W. Scott Brown
 Total Number Of Projects           80          99           94            273      SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WESTERN CANADA
                                                                                    COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING

                                                                                    Note To Reader - At the end of this report we have included a commentary on ‘What to Watch’
Like any typical summer there were a limited number of higher profile new           and invite you to read our thoughts on the future of the Lower Mainland market. In coming
project launches. These included: Concord Pacific/Millennium’s quiet and            editions, we will provide additional insight to the market through our ‘What to Watch’
                                                                                    commentary, critiquing our earlier assumptions and sharing your views.
successful release of Alexandra in the West End; China based Modern
Green’s UBC offering YU; Bastion’s re-launch of Opsal Steel, Forrester
Homes’ Granville Mews; Townline’s Magnolia at the Gardens; and,
Springbank’s Bloom.



THIRD QUARTER 2011                                                                                                                                                                3
MARKET SUMMARY
VANCOUVER – DOWNTOWN
       The ‘green light’ rating for Vancouver - Downtown is largely the result of the limited supply of product, the
       wildly successful response to the Alexandra project in the West End, and the continued steady absorptions
       at most existing pre-construction projects. A healthy supply of higher-end new and resale condominiums
       in this market has resulted in more moderate absorptions in this sector.


NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:                                 Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES
                                                                                                                                    t                        ll S
                                                                                                                                nS                         we
* The positive response to the Concord/                                                                                     nm
                                                                                                                               a                  Bid
                                                                                                                      De                                                                                                Me                                                                CANADA
                                                                                                                                                       St                                                                                                                                  PLACE
  Millennium offering Alexandra in the West                                                                                                        ero                                                         W
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          lvi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               lle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     St
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ge
                                                                                                                                               ard




                                                                                    Projected Q4
                                                                                                                                             C            St                                                            org
  End (75 of 85 units sold with little to no                                                                                                         ola                                                                      ia
                                                                       Q3 release                                                                 Nic                                                                              St
                                                                                                                                                                                                         St                                     Du
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ns
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Co
  advertising at average sale values upwards                                                       Ha                                                                                             Bute                                               mu                               W
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             rd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ov
                                                                                                      rw                                                                                                                                                ir S                              Ha      aSW
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                                                                                                          dS                                                                                                                                                    t                 Pe
                                                                                                              t        olaS              nS                                            lso                                                                                          nd        ng
  of $950 per square foot) illustrates the level                                                                    Nic            gh
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                                                                                                                                                                     Pe
                                                                                                                                                                               Co
                                                                                                                                                                                   mo
                                                                                                                                                                                           nS
                                                                                                                                                                                              t
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    t
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  of demand for well-located and optimally                                                                                              rvi                                     ll S      t
                                                                                                                                    Je                         St                    t
                                                                                                                                                          te
                                                     HIGH RISE                                                                                   Bu                                                                     St                                      St
  positioned product.                                                                                                                                                    low
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                     by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           St           St             ha
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* City-imposed moratorium on new                     LOW RISE                                                                                                                     rar                                                                                 am ie S

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                                                                                                                                                                                ur                                                                                  H                         po
                                                                                                                                                                               B                                                                                          mb y St          Ex

                                                                                                                                          ve
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  GM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Ca         t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               at BC PLACE PLA
  development approvals in the West End will                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Be
                                                                                                                             T                                                                                     St          Da                                                    STADIUM
                                                     TOWNHOME                                                              DS                                                                                 ur                    vie
                                                                                                                       RAR                                                                                mo                              St                                              lvd
  further exacerbate the demand/supply                                                                             BUR GE                                                                                y                                                                         cB
                                                                                                                    BRID                                                                              Se                                                                       cifi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Pa
                                                                                                                                                                           T
                                                                                                                                                                         ES
  imbalance for the foreseeable future in the                                                                                                         VIL
                                                                                                                                                         L
                                                                                                                                                   AN E
                                                    Maps for illustrative purposes                                                               GR RIDG
  Vancouver – Downtown market.                      only. Locations are approximate.                                                               B


* There are now five completed projects with
                                                   NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS
  a combined total of 76 units of standing                                                         Q3 ACTIVE                         Q3                                        Q3                                       ACTIVE SALES
                                                           PRODUCT
  inventory.                                                                                       PROJECTS                         SALES                                    SUPPLY                                     RANGE ($ PSF)
                                                          High Rise                                     13                          155                                        483                                           $690 - 710
                                                           Low Rise                                      n/a                            n/a                                         n/a                                                   n/a
                                                         Townhome                                        n/a                            n/a                                         n/a                                                   n/a


MLS RESALE - Q3 2011
                                                   MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
                                                                       ACTIVE LISTINGS                                        SOLD INVENTORY
* Overall months of supply is 6.7. This is up
                                                                                MONTHS                                                                % OF TOTAL                                                               AVG. DAYS                ACTIVE SALES RANGE
  from 4.6 in the Second Quarter of 2011.          PRODUCT            LISTINGS
                                                                               OF SUPPLY                                            #                   SOLD*
                                                                                                                                                                                                  $ PSF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ON MARKET                     (75% of sales)
                                                   High Rise            527                             6.7                   235                                   100                       $707                                      38             $364,000 - 828,000
* Overall sales were up 11 percent compared
  to this same quarter in 2010.                    Low Rise                   n/a                            n/a                   n/a                               n/a                              n/a                                 n/a                               n/a

* Average sale price of $707 per square foot       Townhome                   n/a                            n/a                   n/a                               n/a                              n/a                                 n/a                               n/a
  - this is 5 percent higher than during the       Change over the last quarter:     Increase,    Decrease,    No Change
                                                   * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category
  Third Quarter of 2010.
                                                   MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE
                                                                          AVG. PRICE                              $ PSF                   AVG. PRICE                                     $ PSF

                                                   PRODUCT                           1 BEDROOM                                                            2 BEDROOM

                                                   High Rise               $439,283                               $692                    $707,254                                       $721

                                                   Low Rise                         n/a                            n/a                                n/a                                     n/a
                                                   PRODUCT                          2 BEDROOM                                                             3 BEDROOM

                                                   Townhome                         n/a                            n/a                                n/a                                     n/a

THIRD QUARTER 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4
MARKET SUMMARY
VANCOUVER – WEST
        The ‘green light’ rating applied to the Vancouver - West market remains. While sales at most of the actively marketed
        projects remain steady, the amount of product contemplated for the South East False Creek neighbourhood over the
        next two to three years will make this a highly competitive market for the foreseeable future. Vancouver - Downtown
        product remains in higher demand than product in South East False Creek. That said, sales success at Kits 360 and
        6th + Fir illustrated the strong demand for product in the Kitsilano and Burrard Slopes areas.
 NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:                                    Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES
                                                                                                                                                                           Point G
                                                                                                                                                                                     rey Rd                        Cornwall St
* The positive response to the latest




                                                                                                      We
                                                                                                                                     4th Ave W                                                                                                                                                                       Gr




                                                                                                         sb
                                                                                                                    University of                                                                                                                                                                                      e at Nor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        the




                                                                                                           r oo
  condominium offering at UBC’s Wesbrook                                                                           British Columbia                10th Ave W                  BROADWAY W




                                                                                                            kM
                                                                                       Projected Q4
                                                                                                              all
  community, Modern Green’s YU, illustrates                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 12th Ave W
                                                                          Q3 release
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         12
                                                                                                                                                                                                16th Ave W

  the continued appeal of this neighbourhood




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Arbutus St
                                                                                                                                                                   Dunbar St
                                                                                                                                                       Crown St




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Macdonald St
                                                                                                                                                                                  Blenheim St
                                                                                                                  SW
                                                                                                                   M
  to the new immigrant Chinese buyers.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      King Edward Ave



                                                                                                                       ar
                                                                                                                          in
                                                                                                                               Dr



                                                                                                                          e
* There are indications the Mainland Chinese                                                                                                                                                                                                                                33rd Ave W                                   33rd Ave
                                                        HIGH RISE
  Buyer has discovered The Village on False




                                                                                                                                                                                                                    W Boulevard
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            41st Ave W
  Creek. Several units were sold to this buyer




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         GRANVILLE STREET
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         41st Ave
                                                        LOW RISE
  group during the Third Quarter.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Main St
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Cambie St




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Fraser St
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            49th Ave W
                                                        TOWNHOME




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oak St
* Local developer interest in assembled                                                                                                                                                                                 57th Ave W
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      57th A
  properties along the Cambie Corridor has




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                C.P.R
                                                       Maps for illustrative purposes
  apparently cooled in light of some seemingly




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     .
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  SE Marine
                                                       only. Locations are approximate.                                                                                                                                                                                     70th Ave W                   Kent Ave N




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     O
  irrational land sale values attained earlier this
  year.                                               NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS
                                                                                                         Q3 ACTIVE                     Q3                       Q3                                                  ACTIVE SALES
* Marine Gateway at the foot of Cambie Street is             PRODUCT
                                                                                                         PROJECTS                     SALES                   SUPPLY                                                RANGE ($ PSF)
  anticipated to launch in the First Quarter of              High Rise                                            18                  226                         948                                                             $680 - 750
  2012 rather than in the Fourth Quarter of this
                                                             Low Rise                                             3                       6                       14                                                          $600 - 680
  year.
                                                            Townhome                                               3                      3                       50                                                              $670 - 700


 MLS RESALE - Q3 2011
                                                      MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
                                                                         ACTIVE LISTINGS                                            SOLD INVENTORY
* Active listings for low and high rise product
                                                                                   MONTHS                                                        % OF TOTAL                                                         AVG. DAYS                                                      ACTIVE SALES RANGE
  increased by 43 percent compared to the             PRODUCT            LISTINGS
                                                                                  OF SUPPLY                                           #            SOLD*
                                                                                                                                                                                      $ PSF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ON MARKET                                                           (75% of sales)
  Third Quarter of 2010.                              High Rise             172                                   8.5               61               43                          $723                                                      41                                    $309,900 - 940,000

* At the same time, overall sales have                Low Rise              125                                    7.1              53               38                          $706                                                      51                                    $427,000 - 796,600
  increased by 81 percent compared to the             Townhome                52                                  5.8               27               19                          $663                                                      26                                             $575,000 - 1.1M
  Third Quarter of 2010.                              Change over the last quarter:     Increase,    Decrease,    No Change
                                                      * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category
* The townhome sector showed the strongest
  sales increase compared to this same                MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE
  quarter last year. This helps explain the low                              AVG. PRICE                                    $ PSF          AVG. PRICE                           $ PSF
  ‘average days on market’ for townhome               PRODUCT                           1 BEDROOM                                                2 BEDROOM
  product.
                                                      High Rise                $391,383                                    $643           $785,205                             $758

                                                      Low Rise                $432,950                                     $659           $649,891                             $717
                                                      PRODUCT                          2 BEDROOM                                                 3 BEDROOM

                                                      Townhome                $805,321                                     $665           $952,303                             $671

THIRD QUARTER 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5
MARKET SUMMARY
VANCOUVER – EAST
        Limited supply of new multi-family home product is the primary reason for the continued ‘green light’
        rating for this market. The Main and Fraser Street corridors continue to attract new home buyers seeking
        more affordable pricing in quickly gentrifying areas. Developers contemplating new projects in Vancouver
        - East should be conscious of the fact buyers are typically seeking greater value here relative to more
        established Vancouver - West neighbourhoods.
 NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:                                    Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               morial Bridge
* Polygon continues to receive a very positive




                                                                                                                   St
                                                                                                                an
                                                                                                              nm
                                                                                                                                                                                                     McGill St
  response to its New Water development at




                                                                                                        De
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Eton St




                                                                                                              Da cific
                                                                                       Projected Q4
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Dundas St




                                                                                                                vie
  the River District.



                                                                                                                 Pa
                                                                          Q3 release




                                                                                                                    St
                                                                                                                                                                                     HASTINGS STREET E




                                                                                                                       St




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Willingdon Ave
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Parker St




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Gilmore Ave
* The execution and marketing of many of the                                                                                                                                                         Venables St




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Holdom St
                                                                                                                                                                          Clark Dr
  low rise projects located along Kingsway has                                                                                               Gr                                                      1st Ave
                                                                                                                                               e at Nor
                                                                                                                                                          thern
                                                                                                                                                                  Wy
  been poor.
                                                        HIGH RISE                                                                                                                    BROADWAY E
                                                                                                                12th Ave W
                                                                                                                                                          12th Ave E
* Panther Constructors Ltd. is set to launch its                                                                                                                                                                              Grandview Hwy
                                                        LOW RISE




                                                                                                                                                                                        Nanaimo St
                                                                                                                                                             KIN                                                                                               Canada Wy




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Renfrew St
                                                                                                                                                                  GS




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Rupert St
  first residential project, The Flats at 219                                                                                                                       WA




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Wayburne Dr
                                                                                                               King Edward Ave                                        Y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Kincaid St                                                       Spro
  Georgia East, early in the Fourth Quarter.            TOWNHOME
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Collingwood
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Moscrop St
  This innovative project is the first of its kind                                                             33rd Ave W                        33rd Ave E                                                                                                                                                        Deer Lake Pk

  for Chinatown.                                                                                               41st Ave W
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Burke St
                                                       Maps for illustrative purposes
                                                                                                      TREET




                                                                                                                                                 41st Ave E                                                                                                                      Gran
                                                       only. Locations are approximate.                                                                                                                                                                                              ge S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         t
* Two Vancouver - East areas that will see
  increased development activity in the coming        NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS
  quarters are Chinatown and a large land                                                             Q3 ACTIVE                    Q3                  Q3                                        ACTIVE SALES
                                                             PRODUCT
                                                                                                      PROJECTS                    SALES              SUPPLY                                      RANGE ($ PSF)
  assembly adjacent to the Collingwood Village
                                                             High Rise                                          2                     27              120                                            $580 - 630
  community near Kingsway and Boundary.
                                                             Low Rise                                           16                130                 185                                            $480 - 530
                                                            Townhome                                           4                      6                   39                                         $450 - 500


 MLS RESALE - Q3 2011
                                                      MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
                                                                         ACTIVE LISTINGS                                        SOLD INVENTORY
* Average sale values for high rise product
                                                                                   MONTHS                                                  % OF TOTAL                                         AVG. DAYS                                      ACTIVE SALES RANGE
  increased 8 percent over the Third Quarter of       PRODUCT            LISTINGS
                                                                                  OF SUPPLY                                       #          SOLD*
                                                                                                                                                                        $ PSF
                                                                                                                                                                                             ON MARKET                                           (75% of sales)
  2010.                                               High Rise             107                                7.8               41             39                     $554                             34                                   $328,888 - 557,500

* Active listings increased by 9 percent              Low Rise               117                               8.8              40              38                     $479                             72                                   $288,000 - 448,000
  compared to the previous quarter.                   Townhome                59                                7.1              25             24                     $484                             35                                   $522,000 - 765,000
* Overall sales were up 45 percent compared to        Change over the last quarter:     Increase,    Decrease,    No Change
                                                      * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category
  the Third Quarter of 2010 - much of which can
  be attributed to higher sales activity in the low   MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE
  rise condominium sector.                                                   AVG. PRICE                                 $ PSF         AVG. PRICE                  $ PSF

                                                      PRODUCT                           1 BEDROOM                                          2 BEDROOM

                                                      High Rise               $396,863                                  $569           $523,974                   $551

                                                      Low Rise                $329,487                                  $476           $398,114                   $483
                                                      PRODUCT                          2 BEDROOM                                           3 BEDROOM

                                                      Townhome                 $588,110                                 $492           $692,109                   $484

THIRD QUARTER 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        6
MARKET SUMMARY
RICHMOND/SOUTH DELTA/TSAWWASSEN
        Richmond retains its ‘green light’ rating as a result of the continued strong absorptions of high and low rise
        condominium product. The lack of new product releases in the Third Quarter also resulted in very little movement in
        achievable sale values. Developers contemplating new product here should be aware of the considerable amount of
        condominium product proceeding through the planning process, and design and position their projects appropriately.


 NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:                                  Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES




                                                                                                                                                             y
                                                                                                                                                               W




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Vulcan
                                                                                                                                                            er
* The most notable project launch of Third                                                                                                     Russ Bak
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Alderbridge Wy                                                                     RICHMOND ANNACIS HIGHW
  Quarter was Townline’s The Gardens low rise                                                                          River Rd




                                                                                     Projected Q4
  project on the former Fantasy Gardens                                                                                                                                                                          Westminster Hwy
                                                                        Q3 release




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   C.N.R.
  property. The positive response to the




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              No 8 Rd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            No. 7 Rd
                                                                                                                                           Granville Ave

  project’s first phase will likely result in the




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          THRUWAY
                                                                                                                                           Blundell Rd
  launch of Phase II during the Fourth Quarter.
                                                                                                            No. 1 Rd




                                                                                                                                                                   Gilbert Rd



                                                                                                                                                                                  No. 3 Rd




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      No. 4 Rd




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               No. 5 Rd




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         No. 6 Rd
                                                                                                                             Railway Ave




                                                                                                                                                                                                Garden City Rd
                                                      HIGH RISE                                                                            Francis Rd




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          FRASER - DELTA
* Slower absorptions in the high rise product
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                T
  category can be attributed to the lack of           LOW RISE                                                                             Williams Rd                                                                                                                                                                          I
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 H

  product launches in the market area. Most
                                                      TOWNHOME                                                                             Steveston Hwy                                                                                                                                                                   r Rd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Rive
  pre sale offerings for this product type are
                                                                                                                                                No. 2 Rd
                                                                                                          Steveston




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Shell Rd
  nearing the end of their respective sales                                                                             Moncton St

                                                     Maps for illustrative purposes
  campaigns.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Ge
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            or
                                                     only. Locations are approximate.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ge
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 M




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     a
* Note that the Quintet sales office has now
                                                    NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS
  closed to allow for the start of construction.                                                    Q3 ACTIVE                               Q3                                    Q3                                             ACTIVE SALES
                                                           PRODUCT
  Nearly 650 of the approximately 700 units in                                                      PROJECTS                               SALES                                SUPPLY                                           RANGE ($ PSF)

  this five-tower development are sold.                    High Rise                                  9                                     147                                 456                                               $540 - 590
                                                           Low Rise                                   7                                     119                                 204                                               $430 - 470
                                                          Townhome                                    14                                     31                                 126                                               $375 - 425


 MLS RESALE - Q3 2011
                                                    MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
                                                                       ACTIVE LISTINGS                                       SOLD INVENTORY
* Overall active listings are up 21 percent
                                                                                 MONTHS                                                                    % OF TOTAL                                                             AVG. DAYS                                      ACTIVE SALES RANGE
  compared to the Third Quarter of 2010.            PRODUCT            LISTINGS
                                                                                OF SUPPLY                                                  #                 SOLD*
                                                                                                                                                                                                $ PSF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ON MARKET                                           (75% of sales)

* Months of supply for high rise product is 11.     High Rise            308                           11                       84                                 38                          $521                                  66                                          $333,000 - 613,500
  This is up from 9 in the Third Quarter of last    Low Rise              144                         9.2                       47                                  21                         $445                                    51                                        $339,900 - 529,900
  year.
                                                    Townhome             225                          7.6                       89                                 40                          $410                                  49                                         $480,000 - 731,000
* Demand for townhome product remains
                                                    Change over the last quarter:     Increase,    Decrease,    No Change
  strong.                                           * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category


                                                    MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE
                                                                           AVG. PRICE                       $ PSF                              AVG. PRICE                                    $ PSF

                                                    PRODUCT                           1 BEDROOM                                                            2 BEDROOM

                                                    High Rise               $352,639                        $520                               $484,204                                      $520

                                                    Low Rise                $337,686                        $500                               $427,951                                      $442
                                                    PRODUCT                          2 BEDROOM                                                             3 BEDROOM

                                                    Townhome                $484,414                        $395                               $598,749                                      $410

THIRD QUARTER 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      7
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q3 - 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q3 - 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q3 - 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q3 - 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q3 - 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q3 - 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q3 - 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q3 - 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q3 - 2011
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Colliers Residential MarketShare Q3 - 2011

  • 1. MarketShare THIRD QUARTER 2011 A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET IN THE VANCOUVER LOWER MAINLAND OCTOBER 2011
  • 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS WELCOME TO MARKETSHARE 1 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 2 OVERALL – MARKET SUMMARY 3 MARKET SUMMARIES Vancouver – Downtown 4 Vancouver – West 5 Vancouver – East 6 Richmond/South Delta/Tsawwassen 7 Burnaby/New Westminster 8 North Shore: North Vancouver & West Vancouver 9 Tri-Cities: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam & Port Moody 10 Ridge Meadows: Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows 11 Surrey Central/North Delta 12 South Surrey/White Rock 13 Cloverdale/Langley 14 WHAT TO WATCH 15 THIRD QUARTER 2011
  • 3. WELCOME TO MarketShare As our team gathered to review and discuss our view Finally, as I mentioned in the last edition of MarketShare we have committed to a long-term approach in building sales distribution channels of the markets this past quarter, we were again in China for both Vancouver and Toronto developers to satisfy what we inspired to see such buoyant activity in Toronto and believe will be sustained demand. We are increasing the size of our teams Vancouver while economies around the world are in this market, investing in technology, people development and experiencing such volatility. communication infrastructure and building multiple partnerships with banks, immigration agencies as well as with other real estate agencies. The global macroeconomic view continues to lean towards the negative Our aim is to be the ‘go to’ organization for Canadian real estate in China. side. Depending on which economist you follow, the U.S. and Europe will This year our teams in Hong Kong, Singapore and China have already sold resolve their current issues soon and the world will ‘get back to business’ over USD $400 million of UK and Australian product. Together we are or, they won’t. How the U.S. and multiple countries in Europe can run their now expanding the market for Canadian product. We believe the best finances into the ground with debt is simply mind-boggling (where’s their approach to maximize success for Canadian developers in China is a proforma?). What is even more amazing is that when they try to address the long-term sustained approach as opposed to a “launch and leave”. For problems, political partisanship and self-interest seemingly get in the way of the right projects, we believe this is a long-term sales channel for constructive and corrective action. Canadian real estate but it is not a quick fix problem project solver. While the global economy continues to experience many issues, the In summary, while the global economy has caused angst over the past Vancouver Lower Mainland real estate market continues to demonstrate month or so the Vancouver Lower Mainland real estate market continues resilience and reinforces that ‘this is the place to be’ for real estate to perform steadily and assuming no major global economic meltdown we developers. Low interest rates and an influx of new buyers into the market expect it to continue. will help to sustain this resilience. With current global economic challenges expected to keep interest rates low into the foreseeable future, the I hope you enjoy this edition of MarketShare and as always we welcome Vancouver Lower Mainland is a great place to be a real estate buyer as well. your thoughts and comments. Looking ahead, we do however see challenges in the local market surrounding the need for affordable housing options. In talking to our colleagues in land sales the limited supply of quality new development sites is resulting in escalating land prices. The higher the price for land, the greater the price the buyer will be required to pay. At the same time the number of active and planned projects may push construction costs higher, Greg Ashley again resulting in higher sales prices for the buyer. This situation will PRESIDENT AND MANAGING PARTNER, necessitate innovation. We are beginning to see this innovation on the COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING development side - more efficient floor plans and reduced parking being two of them. If one lives close to transit or downtown and does not require a car why does a developer have to build or provide the buyer a parking space? And if one does have a car, there are under-utilized parking structures that would be happy to offer long-term leases as an option to purchasing a residence without parking. Our team is currently working on an innovative project in Chinatown that offers exactly this. THIRD QUARTER 2011 1
  • 4. RESEARCH Methodology Urban Analytics (UAI) is Metro-Vancouver’s leading buildings/projects. In all instances active sales range quoted in tables is defined as “The active sales range in which 75 percent of sales of this product source for analytical interpretation of relevant real type occurred”. estate market data, trends and strategic recommendations. This quarter we were also interested to find out how the rejection of the HST and the ensuing uncertainty was impacting the new home market. Urban Analytics Inc. (UAI) was engaged by Colliers to provide aggregate We found that the impact has been modest on lower priced product. data on the multi-family residential real estate market in the Vancouver However, product priced between $525,000 and $1 million that completes Lower Mainland. prior to February 2013 appears to be getting hit the hardest. That said, most end-user buyers (and many realtors) seeking product priced under The methodology used to collect the data was as follows: the $525,000 threshold simply don’t understand how the tax applies. So GENERAL PARAMETERS to avoid the confusion and encourage purchasing, many developers are Vancouver Lower Mainland refers to the area from West Vancouver to now including the HST in the price. The provincial government must Aldergrove. The focus of this study is limited to the multi-family market. provide clarity on this issue swiftly. MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA – NEW HOME SALES Finally, with the continued “bubble” talk by economists based thousands The primary method used to collect information is a personal visit to each of miles from here, our analysts made a conscious effort to determine the project being actively marketed. In addition to collecting current sales amount of standing inventory and assess whether these concerns are information, UAI representatives engage on-site sales staff to determine warranted. We do not think they are as a) inventory levels do not present additional relevant information such as incentive offerings, traffic trends and a concern at this time, b) any speculative buying that is typical of a active buyer profiles. In all instances active sales range quoted in tables is growing bubble represents a microscopic fraction of the total buying defined as “The per square foot sales range in which 75 percent of sales of this activity taking place today and c) investors are taking a much longer term product type occurred”. approach with their purchases, unlike 2006 to 2008 when most investors had no intention – and in many cases no ability – to close on their For the purposes of the MarketShare publications, UAI contacts various purchases. municipal planning departments along with developers (and/or their representatives) of proposed new developments to determine the We hope you find this aggregate data combined with Colliers’ anticipated timing of their approval and marketing launch. analysis, observations and opinions thought provoking. MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA – RESALE The resale market provides an important barometer from which to assess demand and determine pricing for new home projects. Accordingly, UAI Michael Ferreira closely monitors the resale market for multi-family homes in order to PRINCIPAL, URBAN ANALYTICS INC. identify trends that are relevant to the new home sector. However, the breadth and depth of product for sale can create findings that are less than helpful to the new home developer. As a result, UAI recommends studying only product that is aged ten years or newer and valued at less than $1.2 million. While it could be argued that limiting the analysis to newer product urban A N A LY T I C S I N C (i.e. five years or newer) would be more relevant to the new home sector, we believe this would limit the sample size and potentially skew the data towards a specific type of product available in a small number of specific www.urbananalytics.ca THIRD QUARTER 2011 2
  • 5. OVERALL – SUMMARY VANCOUVER LOWER MAINLAND As expected, Third Quarter sales were slower than the previous two quarters. Finally, given the slower season and increased competition in markets However, even accounting for the usual seasonal dip in sales during this where the predominant buyer is an end user, such as Langley/Cloverdale quarter, a total of 2,315 units were sold which is up 40 percent from the same and Central Surrey/North Delta, a number of projects offered price- quarter in 2010. Year to date, 9,681 units have been sold, or 108 percent of reducing incentives while other of more centrally located projects worked 2010’s total sales volume. Our prediction of 12,000+ units sold in 2011 to generate sales through increased realtor commissions. appears to be attainable. RESALE MARKET: Sales at new and high profile projects in False Creek, UBC, South Vancouver, This past quarter, 1,792 multi-family homes were sold on MLS. Sales were Richmond, Coquitlam, and South Surrey contributed greatly as did continued up 48 percent over this same period last year. The increase was across all demand for townhome product in all markets. Reasonably strong traffic and product types with high rise representing the lowest increase at 22 percent, sales activity during the first part of the quarter was reported. However, low rise sales increasing by 70 percent and townhome sales increasing by traffic and sales slowed towards the end of August and through September. 76 percent. However, when compared to the torrid pace of the Second Quarter, sales were off 30 percent as a whole. Overall Third Quarter sales Overall unsold inventory levels in the Lower Mainland were reduced by were distributed across all product types as indicated in the following table. approximately 10 percent in the Third Quarter relative to Second Quarter of this year. Like many buyers, Mainland Chinese investors and end users were HIGH RISE LOW RISE TOWNHOME TOTALS somewhat less active overall except for in key markets such as UBC. Total Third Quarter Sales 722 478 592 1,792 Surprisingly, the first time or entry level buyer remained active taking advantage of developer incentives and low interest rates. Total Active Listings 1,961 1,403 1,458 4,822 NEW HOME MARKET: THE QUARTER AHEAD: In the Third Quarter 36 percent of sales occurred at high rise projects, which is The Fourth Quarter of 2010 proved to be the most active sales period for a 20 percent decrease compared to the previous quarter. Low rise sales that year. This year, we think that it is unlikely we will see the same number represented 38 percent of sales, which is up 12 percent from the previous of sales due to the limited number of projects likely to launch in the Fourth quarter while townhome sales increased by 6 percent to 26 percent. Of the Quarter. We do however, still expect a positive quarter and continue to 7,067 units of inventory available to purchase 2,130 are complete with three project annual sales of 12,000+ units. projects accounting for approximately 31 percent of the completed and unsold inventory. Active projects decreased by approximately 2 percent. Overall Third Quarter performance across all product types is summarized in the following table. HIGH RISE LOW RISE TOWNHOME TOTALS Total Third Quarter Sales 825 893 597 2,315 Total Inventory 3,484 2,404 1,179 7,067 W. Scott Brown Total Number Of Projects 80 99 94 273 SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WESTERN CANADA COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING Note To Reader - At the end of this report we have included a commentary on ‘What to Watch’ Like any typical summer there were a limited number of higher profile new and invite you to read our thoughts on the future of the Lower Mainland market. In coming project launches. These included: Concord Pacific/Millennium’s quiet and editions, we will provide additional insight to the market through our ‘What to Watch’ commentary, critiquing our earlier assumptions and sharing your views. successful release of Alexandra in the West End; China based Modern Green’s UBC offering YU; Bastion’s re-launch of Opsal Steel, Forrester Homes’ Granville Mews; Townline’s Magnolia at the Gardens; and, Springbank’s Bloom. THIRD QUARTER 2011 3
  • 6. MARKET SUMMARY VANCOUVER – DOWNTOWN The ‘green light’ rating for Vancouver - Downtown is largely the result of the limited supply of product, the wildly successful response to the Alexandra project in the West End, and the continued steady absorptions at most existing pre-construction projects. A healthy supply of higher-end new and resale condominiums in this market has resulted in more moderate absorptions in this sector. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES t ll S nS we * The positive response to the Concord/ nm a Bid De Me CANADA St PLACE Millennium offering Alexandra in the West ero W lvi lle St Ge ard Projected Q4 C St org End (75 of 85 units sold with little to no ola ia Q3 release Nic St St Du ns Co advertising at average sale values upwards Ha Bute mu W rd ov rw ir S Ha aSW oo t t Ne W sti t ater dS t Pe t olaS nS lso nd ng of $950 per square foot) illustrates the level Nic gh to Pe Co mo nS t er St sS t ou St Br s n dra xS of demand for well-located and optimally rvi ll S t Je St t te HIGH RISE Bu St St positioned product. low St rn by St St ha rds K Pa ur Ho St cifi Th we vil le Ric r nS t me Be cS St Ho ran ilto d Ho ac t d G t Blv * City-imposed moratorium on new LOW RISE rar am ie S hA ur H po B mb y St Ex ve GM Ca t at BC PLACE PLA development approvals in the West End will Be T St Da STADIUM TOWNHOME DS ur vie RAR mo St lvd further exacerbate the demand/supply BUR GE y cB BRID Se cifi Pa T ES imbalance for the foreseeable future in the VIL L AN E Maps for illustrative purposes GR RIDG Vancouver – Downtown market. only. Locations are approximate. B * There are now five completed projects with NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS a combined total of 76 units of standing Q3 ACTIVE Q3 Q3 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT inventory. PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) High Rise 13 155 483 $690 - 710 Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a MLS RESALE - Q3 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age) MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY * Overall months of supply is 6.7. This is up MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE from 4.6 in the Second Quarter of 2011. PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) High Rise 527 6.7 235 100 $707 38 $364,000 - 828,000 * Overall sales were up 11 percent compared to this same quarter in 2010. Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a * Average sale price of $707 per square foot Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a - this is 5 percent higher than during the Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category Third Quarter of 2010. MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM High Rise $439,283 $692 $707,254 $721 Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a THIRD QUARTER 2011 4
  • 7. MARKET SUMMARY VANCOUVER – WEST The ‘green light’ rating applied to the Vancouver - West market remains. While sales at most of the actively marketed projects remain steady, the amount of product contemplated for the South East False Creek neighbourhood over the next two to three years will make this a highly competitive market for the foreseeable future. Vancouver - Downtown product remains in higher demand than product in South East False Creek. That said, sales success at Kits 360 and 6th + Fir illustrated the strong demand for product in the Kitsilano and Burrard Slopes areas. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES Point G rey Rd Cornwall St * The positive response to the latest We 4th Ave W Gr sb University of e at Nor the r oo condominium offering at UBC’s Wesbrook British Columbia 10th Ave W BROADWAY W kM Projected Q4 all community, Modern Green’s YU, illustrates 12th Ave W Q3 release 12 16th Ave W the continued appeal of this neighbourhood Arbutus St Dunbar St Crown St Macdonald St Blenheim St SW M to the new immigrant Chinese buyers. King Edward Ave ar in Dr e * There are indications the Mainland Chinese 33rd Ave W 33rd Ave HIGH RISE Buyer has discovered The Village on False W Boulevard 41st Ave W Creek. Several units were sold to this buyer GRANVILLE STREET 41st Ave LOW RISE group during the Third Quarter. Main St Cambie St Fraser St 49th Ave W TOWNHOME Oak St * Local developer interest in assembled 57th Ave W 57th A properties along the Cambie Corridor has C.P.R Maps for illustrative purposes apparently cooled in light of some seemingly . SE Marine only. Locations are approximate. 70th Ave W Kent Ave N O irrational land sale values attained earlier this year. NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS Q3 ACTIVE Q3 Q3 ACTIVE SALES * Marine Gateway at the foot of Cambie Street is PRODUCT PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) anticipated to launch in the First Quarter of High Rise 18 226 948 $680 - 750 2012 rather than in the Fourth Quarter of this Low Rise 3 6 14 $600 - 680 year. Townhome 3 3 50 $670 - 700 MLS RESALE - Q3 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age) MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY * Active listings for low and high rise product MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE increased by 43 percent compared to the PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) Third Quarter of 2010. High Rise 172 8.5 61 43 $723 41 $309,900 - 940,000 * At the same time, overall sales have Low Rise 125 7.1 53 38 $706 51 $427,000 - 796,600 increased by 81 percent compared to the Townhome 52 5.8 27 19 $663 26 $575,000 - 1.1M Third Quarter of 2010. Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category * The townhome sector showed the strongest sales increase compared to this same MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE quarter last year. This helps explain the low AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF ‘average days on market’ for townhome PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM product. High Rise $391,383 $643 $785,205 $758 Low Rise $432,950 $659 $649,891 $717 PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome $805,321 $665 $952,303 $671 THIRD QUARTER 2011 5
  • 8. MARKET SUMMARY VANCOUVER – EAST Limited supply of new multi-family home product is the primary reason for the continued ‘green light’ rating for this market. The Main and Fraser Street corridors continue to attract new home buyers seeking more affordable pricing in quickly gentrifying areas. Developers contemplating new projects in Vancouver - East should be conscious of the fact buyers are typically seeking greater value here relative to more established Vancouver - West neighbourhoods. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES morial Bridge * Polygon continues to receive a very positive St an nm McGill St response to its New Water development at De Eton St Da cific Projected Q4 Dundas St vie the River District. Pa Q3 release St HASTINGS STREET E St Willingdon Ave Parker St Gilmore Ave * The execution and marketing of many of the Venables St Holdom St Clark Dr low rise projects located along Kingsway has Gr 1st Ave e at Nor thern Wy been poor. HIGH RISE BROADWAY E 12th Ave W 12th Ave E * Panther Constructors Ltd. is set to launch its Grandview Hwy LOW RISE Nanaimo St KIN Canada Wy Renfrew St GS Rupert St first residential project, The Flats at 219 WA Wayburne Dr King Edward Ave Y Kincaid St Spro Georgia East, early in the Fourth Quarter. TOWNHOME Collingwood Moscrop St This innovative project is the first of its kind 33rd Ave W 33rd Ave E Deer Lake Pk for Chinatown. 41st Ave W Burke St Maps for illustrative purposes TREET 41st Ave E Gran only. Locations are approximate. ge S t * Two Vancouver - East areas that will see increased development activity in the coming NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS quarters are Chinatown and a large land Q3 ACTIVE Q3 Q3 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) assembly adjacent to the Collingwood Village High Rise 2 27 120 $580 - 630 community near Kingsway and Boundary. Low Rise 16 130 185 $480 - 530 Townhome 4 6 39 $450 - 500 MLS RESALE - Q3 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age) MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY * Average sale values for high rise product MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE increased 8 percent over the Third Quarter of PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) 2010. High Rise 107 7.8 41 39 $554 34 $328,888 - 557,500 * Active listings increased by 9 percent Low Rise 117 8.8 40 38 $479 72 $288,000 - 448,000 compared to the previous quarter. Townhome 59 7.1 25 24 $484 35 $522,000 - 765,000 * Overall sales were up 45 percent compared to Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category the Third Quarter of 2010 - much of which can be attributed to higher sales activity in the low MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE rise condominium sector. AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM High Rise $396,863 $569 $523,974 $551 Low Rise $329,487 $476 $398,114 $483 PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome $588,110 $492 $692,109 $484 THIRD QUARTER 2011 6
  • 9. MARKET SUMMARY RICHMOND/SOUTH DELTA/TSAWWASSEN Richmond retains its ‘green light’ rating as a result of the continued strong absorptions of high and low rise condominium product. The lack of new product releases in the Third Quarter also resulted in very little movement in achievable sale values. Developers contemplating new product here should be aware of the considerable amount of condominium product proceeding through the planning process, and design and position their projects appropriately. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES y W Vulcan er * The most notable project launch of Third Russ Bak Alderbridge Wy RICHMOND ANNACIS HIGHW Quarter was Townline’s The Gardens low rise River Rd Projected Q4 project on the former Fantasy Gardens Westminster Hwy Q3 release C.N.R. property. The positive response to the No 8 Rd No. 7 Rd Granville Ave project’s first phase will likely result in the THRUWAY Blundell Rd launch of Phase II during the Fourth Quarter. No. 1 Rd Gilbert Rd No. 3 Rd No. 4 Rd No. 5 Rd No. 6 Rd Railway Ave Garden City Rd HIGH RISE Francis Rd FRASER - DELTA * Slower absorptions in the high rise product T category can be attributed to the lack of LOW RISE Williams Rd I H product launches in the market area. Most TOWNHOME Steveston Hwy r Rd Rive pre sale offerings for this product type are No. 2 Rd Steveston Shell Rd nearing the end of their respective sales Moncton St Maps for illustrative purposes campaigns. Ge or only. Locations are approximate. ge M t a * Note that the Quintet sales office has now NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS closed to allow for the start of construction. Q3 ACTIVE Q3 Q3 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT Nearly 650 of the approximately 700 units in PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) this five-tower development are sold. High Rise 9 147 456 $540 - 590 Low Rise 7 119 204 $430 - 470 Townhome 14 31 126 $375 - 425 MLS RESALE - Q3 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age) MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY * Overall active listings are up 21 percent MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE compared to the Third Quarter of 2010. PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) * Months of supply for high rise product is 11. High Rise 308 11 84 38 $521 66 $333,000 - 613,500 This is up from 9 in the Third Quarter of last Low Rise 144 9.2 47 21 $445 51 $339,900 - 529,900 year. Townhome 225 7.6 89 40 $410 49 $480,000 - 731,000 * Demand for townhome product remains Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change strong. * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM High Rise $352,639 $520 $484,204 $520 Low Rise $337,686 $500 $427,951 $442 PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome $484,414 $395 $598,749 $410 THIRD QUARTER 2011 7