This document discusses the challenges posed by the growing Haredi population in Israel. It notes that the Haredi population has a very high birth rate, low workforce participation especially among men, and high rates of welfare dependency due to lack of marketable education and exemptions from military service. Reliable data on the Haredi population is difficult to obtain due to non-participation in surveys. As the Haredi population grows as a proportion of Israelis, it raises questions about whether Israel can remain a modern economy under these conditions. The Haredi leadership resists changes that could threaten their socioeconomic model and survival of their community.

1. Haredi Invasion
Can Israel survive its
biggest challenge yet?

3. Jewish Religiosity Spectrum in Israel
Hiloni Masorati Dati Le’umi Haredi
Secular Traditional Modern Orthodox Ultra-Orthodox
less religious more religious
Religiosity in this context is simply defined as the average proportion of time devoted to religious-specific activities

4. Jewish Religiosity in Israel
Sephardim
Hiloni Masorati Dati Le’umi Haredi
Secular Traditional Modern Orthodox Ultra-Orthodox
Ashkenazim Ashkenazim

5. Haredi Data
• Reliable data on Haredi trends are difficult to obtain:
• Due to its inherent loose definition (floating signifier)
• Lack of participation in surveys
• 50% refusal rate (CBS study)
• Moreover, data is biased towards more moderate haredim
• For example, 35% of Haredi men completed military service
• This leads to an overreliance on anecdotes and poor
categorisation of datasets.
"The plural of anecdote is not data." (R. Brinner)

6. Haredi Data
Hiloni Masorati Dati Le’umi Haredi
Secular Traditional Modern Orthodox Ultra-Orthodox
Haredi
anecdotes

7. Haredi Data
Haredi data
categorisation
Hiloni Masorati Dati Le’umi Haredi
Secular Traditional Modern Orthodox Ultra-Orthodox

8. Key Economic & Social Issues
• Low participation in workforce (particularly for men)
• Lack of marketable education
• High birth rate (7-9 per woman)
• In Haredi cities, more than half are under the age of 15
• Large informal economic activity
• Exemption from military service
• Welfare dependency
As the proportion of Haredim grow, can Israel remain a modern
developed economy under these conditions?

9. Haredi Birth-rate
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Female-core Female-moderate

11. Difference in Growth Rates between
Arabs and Jews
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-0.50%

12. Comparison with Haredim outside
of Israel
• A common misperception is that Haredim in other
countries are far better integrated.
• Some key characteristics are, however, very similar:
• Welfare dependency
• High birth rate
• Lack of marketable education
• Informal economy

15. Haredi leadership
• The survival of the Haredi society is fundamentally
dependant on its socioeconomic characteristics.
• Financial dependence on the internal system acts as a
mechanism to prevent Haredim from defecting.
• Consequently, social punishments are very powerful.
• Lack of formal education, early marriage and high birth-
rate acts as lock-in mechanisms.
• The leadership are, therefore, resistant to any change - as
it is effectively a negotiation on the death of haredism

16. Summary & Policy Perspectives
• Acknowledging the fundamental threats to Haredi
survival, and that these cannot be separated its
economics characteristics.
• Welfare reform may also impact Haredi behaviour in
different way.
• Should government support be available to those
who leave the Haredi community?