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Semelhante a Richard Perez - GW Solar Symposium 2012 (20)
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Richard Perez - GW Solar Symposium 2012
- 1. SOLAR ENERGY: A Path to Energy Significance 4/12/12
DISPERSED PV GENERATION:
SOLAR RESOURCE VARIABILITY
Richard Perez
Tom Hoff
- 4. 0
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One-Minute Global Irradiance (W/sq.m)
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One-Minute Global Irradiance (W/sq.m)
-100%
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100%
Minute-to-Minute Change (%maximum yield)
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
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40%
60%
80%
Minute-to-Minute Change (%maximum yield)
SINGLE LOCATION
20 UNCORRELATED LOCATIONS
© R. Perez et al
Relative Variability = 1/√N
N locations
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
Variability = σ(∆kt*)
- 6. © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
16 Months of data -- 40 million data points
© R. Perez & T. Hoff
- 7. Virtual Networks
Time space = f (cloud speed)
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
400x400km satellite-
derived hi-resolution
one-minute data
16 Months of data -- 40 million data points16 Months of data -- 4 Billion data points
Very high density
modular networks
66 stations
- 8. -0.2
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
∆Kt*Correlation
Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute
One minute
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
- 9. -0.2
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0.2
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
∆Kt*Correlation
Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute
5-minutes
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
- 10. -0.2
0
0.2
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
∆Kt*Correlation
Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute
5-minutes
15-minutes
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
- 11. -0.2
0
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
∆Kt*Correlation
Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute
5-minutes
15-minutes
30-minutes
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
- 12. -0.2
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
∆Kt*Correlation
Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute
5-minutes
15-minutes
30-minutes
One Hour
HAWAII LAND Nov 2011
CLOUD SPEED 13 km/h
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
- 13. NEVADA Jun 1998
CLOUD SPEED 24 km/h
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
∆Kt*Correlation
Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute
5-minutes
15-minutes
30-minutes
One Hour
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
- 14. HAWAII Dec 2010
CLOUD SPEED 26 km/h
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
∆Kt*Correlation
Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute
5-minutes
15-minutes
30-minutes
One Hour
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
- 15. CENT. CALIFORNIA Mar 1998
CLOUD SPEED 30 km/h
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
∆Kt*Correlation
Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute
5-minutes
15-minutes
30-minutes
One Hour
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
- 16. SOUTH GT. PLAINS Dec 2010
CLOUD SPEED 44 km/h
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
∆Kt*Correlation
Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute
5-minutes
15-minutes
30-minutes
One Hour
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
- 18. 0
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CorrelationZeroCrossoverDistance(km)
FluctuationDeltaT(minutes)
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
∆t
ZeroCorrellationDistance
- 19. BASE GENERATION
VARIABLE GENERATION
SOLAR GENERATION STORAGE
CRITICAL TIME SCALE
Seconds Minutes Half Hour Hour
Small PV
Large PV or dist. feeder
Utility
Balancing Area
Application
Technical
Solutions
Interconnection Hardware
Voltage reg. devices
Storage
Load Management, contingency variable generation
SolarAnywhere
High Resolution
SolarAnywhere
Standard Resolution
© R. Perez & T. Hoff
- 20. CRITICAL TIME SCALE
Seconds Minutes Half Hour Hour
SolarAnywhere
High Resolution
SolarAnywhere
Standard Resolution
© R. Perez & T. Hoff
Measured and simulated
10 second fleet output
for a 4 km x 4 km region
- 21. © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
- 24. Hourly Variability divided by 5
3-Hour Variability divided by 5
6-Hour Variability divided by 5
0
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0 5 10 15
CorrelationZeroCrossoverDistance(km)
FluctuationDeltaT(minutes)
∆t = 24 hours
Source: Marc Perez, Columbia University
∆t
ZeroCorrellationDistance
- 28. 0.10 0.23 0.28 0.33 0.38 0.43 0.48 0.53 0.58 0.63 0.68 0.73 0.78 0.83 0.88 0.93 0.98
10 x10 km 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 1.7% 3.9% 11.6% 79.2%
Clearness Index
Distributed
resource
footprint
30x30 km 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1.0% 1.9% 2.9% 7.5% 84.3%
70x70 km 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 3.9% 94.4%
90x90 km 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.0% 97.8%
110x110 km 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 97.3%
50x50 km 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 1.2% 97.6%
A/C Solar Peak Shaving Guarantee increases with resource distribution
15-year Clearness Index distribution for all hours with T >88F, Central CA
Probability of having less than a 90% ideal solar resource: ZERO
10x10km30x30km50x50km70x70km90x90km110x110km
© R. Perez & T. Hoff
- 29. More intense cloud impact
More intense turbidity impact
FLAT PLATE vs. CONCENTRATION
Capacityfactor
© R. Perez & T. Hoff