1. Global Climate Change
Issues, Trends, Outlook
Community Advisory Council
Terry Dressler, Air Pollution Control Officer
December 14, 2005

2. The Greenhouse Effect

3. 2002 California Greenhouse Gases
(493 million metric tons)
HFCs Nitrous
Oxide
3%
7%
Methane
6%
Carbon
Dioxide
84%

4. 2002 California Greenhouse Gas
Emission Sources
Carbon Dioxide Transportation — 41%
Fossil fuel combustion Industrial — 23%
Methane
Electric Power — 20%
Fossil fuels
Ag & Forestry — 8%
Landfills, agriculture
Nitrous Oxide Others — 8%
Agriculture, cars
Hydrofluorocarbons
Refrigerants, solvents

5. Climate Change Indicators
Average temperature changes
Earth’s temperature increased by 1.5ºF during the 20th
century
10 warmest years of the last century all occurred with the
last 15 years
2001, 2002 and 2003 were three of the hottest years ever
recorded
Rising sea level – 7 inches in California since
1850
Shrinking snow pack – Spring runoff
decreased by 10%
Glacial retreat

6. Example of Glacial Retreat –
Glacier National Park 1911 - 2000

7. Potential Climate Change Impacts
Health
Air quality, weather-related mortality, infectious diseases
Agriculture
Crop yields, irrigation demands
Forests
Forest composition, geographic range, forest productivity
Water resources
Water supply, water quality, competition for water resources
Coastal areas
Beach erosion, inundation of coast wetlands, costs to
protect coastal communities
Species and natural areas
Loss of habitat and species

8. Climate Change Projections for
California – Next 100 Years
Greenhouse gas emissions are anticipated to rise by
32% between 1990 and 2020
Projections for warming suggest a global increase of
2.5ºF - 10.4ºF by 2100, with warming in
California even higher
Increased temperatures will result in more ground-
level ozone formation
Reduced snow-pack and stream flow in the Sierra
Nevada will affect water supplies

9. U.S. Impacts
The U.S. is responsible for about 25% of
global greenhouse gas emissions to
date, and our emissions continue to
increase.

10. Current Programs to
Address Climate Change
International
Kyoto Protocol emission targets — went into
effect on February 16, 2005 without US participation
Cities for Climate Change Protection
milestones
National
Research
Other States – Climate Action Plans and
inventories

11. Current Programs to
Address Climate Change
California
Emission reduction targets - Signed June 1, 2005
Goals: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions
to 2000 levels by 2010
to 1990 levels by 2020
to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050
California is the first state to regulate motor vehicle
greenhouse gas emissions
Reductions phased in starting model year 2009
Expected emissions reductions
By 2020: 18% GHG emissions, 6 tons/day of ozone forming
pollution
By 2030: 27% GHG emissions, 10 tons/day of ozone forming
pollution

12. Current Programs to
Address Climate Change
California Climate Registry
Voluntary effort with industries and utilities to
inventory and track their GHG emissions
California Energy Commission and Public
Utilities Commission
Energy efficiency and conservation measures,
Renewable Portfolio Standard

13. Current Programs to
Address Climate Change
Local
Air districts
criteria pollutant reduction programs also reduce
greenhouse gases
Public outreach programs
energy efficiency, alternate transportation
Bay Area AQMD, San Luis Obispo APCD
Adopted programs to inventory and address
greenhouse gas emissions
Santa Barbara County APCD
Public outreach, plans to develop database
structure next year

14. Global Climate Change
Questions, Discussion, Recommendations