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Engineering Responses to Changing Climate Klaus S. Lackner Columbia University
FRAMING THE DEBATE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Challenges ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Rethink the World Energy Infrastructure
New ideas change the world ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Unpredicted and unmodeled, these inventions changed the course of future societal developments in unexpected ways
21st Centuryโ€™s Emissions ??? Atmo-sphere 2000 Ocean Plants Coal Oil, Gas, Tars & Shales Methane Hydrates ๏‚ท   ๏‚ท   ๏‚ท   ๏‚ท   ๏‚ท   ๏‚ท ๏„ pH  <  0.3 39,000 Gt 50,000 Gt ??? Soil & Detritus 1800 constant Scales of Potential Carbon Sinks Carbon Resources Carbon Sources and Sinks 0 Gt 8,000 Gt 7,000 Gt 6,000 Gt 5,000 Gt 4,000 Gt 3,000 Gt 2,000 Gt 1,000 Gt 20th Century 2 ๏‚ด 3 ๏‚ด 4 ๏‚ด
180ppm increase in the air 30% of the Ocean acidified 30%  increase in Soil Carbon 50% increase in biomass Methane Hydrates  10,000 - 100,000 GtC The Mismatch in Carbon Sources and Sinks World Fossil Resource Estimate 21st century emissions  8000 GtC 4 ๏‚ด 3 ๏‚ด 1 ๏‚ด 2 ๏‚ด 5 ๏‚ด 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5  times current rate of emission???? 1800 - 2000 Fossil Carbon Consumption to date
Energy, Wealth, Economic Growth EIA Data for 2002 Norway   USA   France   UK   Brazil   Russia   India   China   $0.38/kWh (primary)
Todayโ€™s Energy Infrastructure ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mega-scale Projects Dominate Low Cost tied to Large Scale ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Todayโ€™s Technology Fails To Deliver Sufficient Energy โ€ฆ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],How much time do we have to make the change?
10 - 30 TeraWatt Primary Energy of Carbon Neutral 2050
Zero Carbon Renewable Energy  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Nuclear Energy for Zero Carbon ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fossil Fuels Energy in 2100 need not be more expensive than today Environment Rather Than Resource Limit Carbon Capture and Storage - Untested Technology
Carbon as Low Cost Energy Rogner 1997
Net Zero Carbon Economy Capture of distributed emissions CO 2  extraction  from air Permanent & safe disposal CO 2  from concentrated sources electricity or hydrogen Geological Storage  Mineral carbonate disposal
Underground Injection statoil
Storage Life Time 5000 Gt of C 200 years at 4 times current rates of emission Storage Slow Leak (0.04%/yr) 2 Gt/yr for 2500  years Current Emissions: 6Gt/year
Rockville Quarry Mg 3 Si 2 O 5 (OH) 4  + 3CO 2 (g)  ๏‚ฎ  3MgCO 3  + 2SiO 2  +2H 2 O(l)   +63kJ/mole
CO 2  N 2 H 2 O SO x , NO x  and other Pollutants Carbon  Air Zero Emission Principle Solid Waste Power Plant
Air Extraction can compensate for CO 2  emissions anywhere Art Courtesy Stonehaven CCS, Montreal 2NaOH + CO 2   ๏ƒ   Na 2 CO 3
Hydrogen or Air Extraction  Coal,Gas  Fossil  Fuel  Oil Hydrogen Gasoline Consumption Consumption Distribution Distribution CO 2  Transport Air Extraction CO 2  Disposal
Hydrogen or Air Extraction  Coal,Gas  Fossil  Fuel  Oil Hydrogen Gasoline Consumption Consumption Distribution Distribution CO 2  Transport Air Extraction CO 2  Disposal Cost  comparisons
Energy Source Energy Consumer H 2 O H 2 O O 2 O 2 Materially Closed Energy Cycles H 2 CO 2 CO 2 H 2 CH 2
C H O Fuels Oxidizer Combustion products Biomass CO Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas Town Gas Petroleum Coal Gasoline Benzene Carbon Hydrogen CO 2 H 2 O Oxygen Increasing Hydrogen Content  Increasing Oxidation State  Methane Free O 2 Free C- H
C H O Fuels Oxidizer Combustion products Biomass CO Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas Town Gas Petroleum Coal Gasoline Benzene Carbon Hydrogen CO 2 H 2 O Oxygen Increasing Hydrogen Content  Increasing Oxidation State  Methane Free O 2 Free C- H
C H O Fuels Oxidizer Combustion products Biomass CO Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas Town Gas Petroleum Coal Gasoline Benzene Carbon Hydrogen CO 2 H 2 O Oxygen Increasing Hydrogen Content  Increasing Oxidation State  Methane Free O 2 Free C- H
A Triad of Large Scale Options backed by a multitude of opportunities ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Markets will drive efficiency, conservation and alternative energy

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05_Day_1_Lackner

  • 1. Engineering Responses to Changing Climate Klaus S. Lackner Columbia University
  • 2.
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  • 4.
  • 5. 21st Centuryโ€™s Emissions ??? Atmo-sphere 2000 Ocean Plants Coal Oil, Gas, Tars & Shales Methane Hydrates ๏‚ท ๏‚ท ๏‚ท ๏‚ท ๏‚ท ๏‚ท ๏„ pH < 0.3 39,000 Gt 50,000 Gt ??? Soil & Detritus 1800 constant Scales of Potential Carbon Sinks Carbon Resources Carbon Sources and Sinks 0 Gt 8,000 Gt 7,000 Gt 6,000 Gt 5,000 Gt 4,000 Gt 3,000 Gt 2,000 Gt 1,000 Gt 20th Century 2 ๏‚ด 3 ๏‚ด 4 ๏‚ด
  • 6. 180ppm increase in the air 30% of the Ocean acidified 30% increase in Soil Carbon 50% increase in biomass Methane Hydrates 10,000 - 100,000 GtC The Mismatch in Carbon Sources and Sinks World Fossil Resource Estimate 21st century emissions 8000 GtC 4 ๏‚ด 3 ๏‚ด 1 ๏‚ด 2 ๏‚ด 5 ๏‚ด 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 times current rate of emission???? 1800 - 2000 Fossil Carbon Consumption to date
  • 7. Energy, Wealth, Economic Growth EIA Data for 2002 Norway USA France UK Brazil Russia India China $0.38/kWh (primary)
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. 10 - 30 TeraWatt Primary Energy of Carbon Neutral 2050
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. Fossil Fuels Energy in 2100 need not be more expensive than today Environment Rather Than Resource Limit Carbon Capture and Storage - Untested Technology
  • 15. Carbon as Low Cost Energy Rogner 1997
  • 16. Net Zero Carbon Economy Capture of distributed emissions CO 2 extraction from air Permanent & safe disposal CO 2 from concentrated sources electricity or hydrogen Geological Storage Mineral carbonate disposal
  • 18. Storage Life Time 5000 Gt of C 200 years at 4 times current rates of emission Storage Slow Leak (0.04%/yr) 2 Gt/yr for 2500 years Current Emissions: 6Gt/year
  • 19. Rockville Quarry Mg 3 Si 2 O 5 (OH) 4 + 3CO 2 (g) ๏‚ฎ 3MgCO 3 + 2SiO 2 +2H 2 O(l) +63kJ/mole
  • 20. CO 2 N 2 H 2 O SO x , NO x and other Pollutants Carbon Air Zero Emission Principle Solid Waste Power Plant
  • 21. Air Extraction can compensate for CO 2 emissions anywhere Art Courtesy Stonehaven CCS, Montreal 2NaOH + CO 2 ๏ƒ  Na 2 CO 3
  • 22. Hydrogen or Air Extraction Coal,Gas Fossil Fuel Oil Hydrogen Gasoline Consumption Consumption Distribution Distribution CO 2 Transport Air Extraction CO 2 Disposal
  • 23. Hydrogen or Air Extraction Coal,Gas Fossil Fuel Oil Hydrogen Gasoline Consumption Consumption Distribution Distribution CO 2 Transport Air Extraction CO 2 Disposal Cost comparisons
  • 24. Energy Source Energy Consumer H 2 O H 2 O O 2 O 2 Materially Closed Energy Cycles H 2 CO 2 CO 2 H 2 CH 2
  • 25. C H O Fuels Oxidizer Combustion products Biomass CO Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas Town Gas Petroleum Coal Gasoline Benzene Carbon Hydrogen CO 2 H 2 O Oxygen Increasing Hydrogen Content Increasing Oxidation State Methane Free O 2 Free C- H
  • 26. C H O Fuels Oxidizer Combustion products Biomass CO Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas Town Gas Petroleum Coal Gasoline Benzene Carbon Hydrogen CO 2 H 2 O Oxygen Increasing Hydrogen Content Increasing Oxidation State Methane Free O 2 Free C- H
  • 27. C H O Fuels Oxidizer Combustion products Biomass CO Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas Town Gas Petroleum Coal Gasoline Benzene Carbon Hydrogen CO 2 H 2 O Oxygen Increasing Hydrogen Content Increasing Oxidation State Methane Free O 2 Free C- H
  • 28.