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Ten Dominant Trends In Technology 2008 Fall 2008 Version
1. Ten Trends in Technology
That Will Shape How We Plan and
Execute Beyond 2008
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
2. A Humbling but Short History of
Futurology…
1899: “Everything that can be invented has been
invented.” – Charles Duell, U.S. Commissioner of Patents
1900: “There is nothing new to be discovered in
physics now.” – Lord Kelvin
1905: “E=mc2”
1923: “There is no likelihood man can ever tap the
power of the atom.” – Nobel Prize-winning physicist Robert
Millikan
1923: “Who wants to hear actors talk?” – Harry Warner
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
3. A Humbling but Short History of
Futurology…
1943: “The future market for computers is about five
or six.” – Thomas Watson, Sr.
1965: “The concept is interesting and well formed.
But in order to earn better than a ‘C’, the idea must
be feasible.” – Long forgotten Yale professor
1968: “I am a HAL 9000 computer, production
number three. I became operational at the HAL
plant in Urbana Illinois on January 12th 1997quot;
1972: “There’s no reason anyone would want a
computer in their home.” – Ken Olson
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
4. We must remember that…
“It’s
tough to make predictions,
especially about the future.”
Yogi Berra
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5. Our theme for today:
INNOVATION…
Technology will cause
“game-changing”
behaviors in our
business or personal
lives.
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
6. Why do we obsess over innovation?
“Every day we are saying,
‘How can we keep this customer
happy?’ How can we get ahead in
innovation by doing this?
Because if we don’t, somebody
else will.”
– Bill Gates
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
7. But then again…
“You can observe a lot just by
watching...”
Yogi Berra
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
8. So Here Come
Ten Trends That Will Shape
2008 & Beyond…
…And their impact on how you
lead
manage
work and
compete…
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
9. 1. The GROWING SCOPE of the INTERNET
In three years, 20 typical
California households will
generate as much traffic as
the entire Internet did in
1995.
Source: Charles Giancarlo, San Francisco Chronicle, 12/14/06
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
10. Every week 12MM people join the Internet,
most from outside the USA.
Unintended consequences of the Internet’s
expansion:
Big media transformation
Birth of the long tail
Social networking
Democratization of content
Power to the artist
Disrupted distribution
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
11. 1. The GROWING SCOPE of the INTERNET
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
12. 22% of the world population now
Internet enabled – June 30th, 2008
WORLD INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION STATISTICS
Internet Usage Usage
Population Internet Users % Population
World Regions Usage, % of Growth
( 2008 Est.) Dec/31, 2000 ( Penetration )
Latest Data World 2000-2008
Africa 955,206,348 4,514,400 51,065,630 5.3 % 3.5 % 1,031.2 %
Asia 3,776,181,949 114,304,000 578,538,257 15.3 % 39.5 % 406.1 %
Europe 800,401,065 105,096,093 384,633,765 48.1 % 26.3 % 266.0 %
Middle East 197,090,443 3,284,800 41,939,200 21.3 % 2.9 % 1,176.8 %
North America 337,167,248 108,096,800 248,241,969 73.6 % 17.0 % 129.6 %
Latin
576,091,673 18,068,919 139,009,209 24.1 % 9.5 % 669.3 %
America/Caribbean
Oceania / Australia 33,981,562 7,620,480 20,204,331 59.5 % 1.4 % 165.1 %
WORLD TOTAL 6,676,120,288 360,985,492 1,463,632,361 21.9 % 100.0 % 305.5 %
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
13. Users on the Internet by REGION
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14. Users on the Internet 6/30/08 by LANGUAGE
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16. 1. The GROWING SCOPE of the INTERNET
156,000,000 hostnames, 66,000,000 are active
Total Sites Across All Domains August 1995 - December 2007
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17. 1. The GROWING SCOPE of the INTERNET
How can your enterprise
capture at least its share
of this expanding
marketplace?
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
18. 2. The Paradise of CHOICE
Consumer PULL, much less producer PUSH
End of the “hit-driven” economy in TV, music, movies, books
TIME and PLACE SHIFTING (TIVO, SlingBox)
We are leaving the “information age” and entering the “Age
of Recommendation”
69% of consumers research products online
62% look at online peer review
39% compare price across outlets
Using engines such as PriceGrabber, TripAdvisor, Shopping.com
Drives prices down, democratizes search…
Leads to accelerated product innovation: Want it NOW!
IP-TV, Podcast network: empowering smaller players.
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
19. 2. The Paradise of CHOICE
What is your company
doing to respond to this
new empowerment of the
purchaser?
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
20. 3. The AUDIENCE is the NETWORK
Democratization of production, distribution and search:
“Make it”, “Get it out there”, and “Help me find it”
Make it: PC music, Wikipedia, iMovie: The power of peer
production grows exponentially
Get it out there: Lulu, MySpace, CraigsList, YouTube, eBay,
Amazon Stores
Electronic distribution: finally bits not atoms.
Move the inventory way IN (central warehouse) or to the edge (eBay,
Amazon retailers) or way gone (iTunes)
Anyone can Sell (Amazon stores, eBay, CraigsList)
Anyone can publish (peer production: LuLu, YouTube, MySpace,
WikiPedia)
Anyone can help me find it (search): The Wisdom of Crowds:
TripAdvisor shopping bots, niche search engines.
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
21. 3. The AUDIENCE is the NETWORK
How are you tapping into
this game-changing
marketing opportunity?
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
22. 4. Increasing Computer Power
Drives Changes In Human Behavior
From emphasis upon productivity over last 25 years…
To changing the way we
share experiences
Communicate
preserve memories
access entertainment
learn, and
use health care
Distribution of innovation to resources around the world.
In the U.S. economy alone up to 12% of all labor activity could be
distributed and networked, from legal to administrative to restructuring
of R&D.
Cloud computing and “on demand” software (SAAS)
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
23. 4. Increasing Computer Power
Drives Changes In Human Behavior
What products or
services could you
add that you could
not deliver
‘yesterday’?
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
24. 5. “I AM THE OFFICE” – Mobile
Computing Changes Our Lives
Information and communications available everywhere.
Apple’s iPhone interface will start a revolution in usable
mobile computing devices.
Video-conferencing becoming a reality
Japan is the first country to see a reduction in PC purchases
year over year – in favor of mobile devices…
More than ½ of the people on the planet have cell phones- up
from 12% in 2000 (U.N. Telecoms study)
Unified communications
“I have an OFFICE in my pocket.”
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
25. 5. “I AM THE OFFICE” – Mobile
Computing Changes Our Lives
Have you and your
company taken
advantage of mobility
as a corporate
strategy?
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
26. 6. Consumer Electronics Spending
Dominated by HDTV, Convergence
CES Show ’08: 2,700 companies, 140,000 attendees, 140
countries
“Connected digital home” and “HD video” main trends.
Digital TV’s now in 56% of U.S. homes – Dec 2007
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
27. 6. Consumer Electronics Trends (Cont’d)
250 MM computers were sold in 2007.
Intel is working on 10x performance at 1/10 the power.
Over a BB transistors on a chip now shipping.
Gaming leads with US software sales of $7.8B in 2008.
Video games exceeded US box office receipts for first
time in 2005.
SINGLE CHIP CPU+VIDEO
NVIDIA is Forbes’ company of the year
NVIDIA RENDERING OF FACE
for video game. 754 M transistors
In G-Force 8800 GTS (up from
63 M in 2002)
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
28. 6. Consumer Electronics Trends (Cont’d)
Wireless electric charging of CE devices and...
Wireless power itself.
110 volts, 30 amps through the air
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
29. 6. Consumer Electronics Trends (Cont’d)
The “Digital home” entertainment servers
centralize content acquisition and storage.
HDTV’s connected to Media center
PC’s will triple again in 2008.
Gaming devices, downloaded
movies and seamless
entertainment
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
30. 6. Consumer Electronics Trends (Cont’d)
IP-TVs and WIFI phones are real and growing segment.
Devices will be driven by voice, gesture and.. Keyboard.
OLED thin, bright display devices. Fold or roll ‘em.
Readius OLED rollup
Screen device.
Toshiba OLED 1.5” wide HDTV
Fujitsu fabric PC - OLED
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
31. 6. Consumer Electronics Trends
What is your company
doing to exceed the
expectations of your
newly-sophisticated
consumers?
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
32. 7. WEB 2.0 Enters the Mainstream
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
33. 7. WEB 2.0 Enters the Mainstream
Young people entering workforce will drive wide
deployment through the enterprise.
More effective way to communicate.
Businesses must adapt.
Facebook as a platform: 55 MM users. May 24th, 2007
launch of open API. Already over 18,000 applications.
Parallel to Internet browser as a container for applications.
One million new users each week, fastest growing group
over 35.
MySpace (falling from favor quickly). New open code…
Platforms to watch: LinkedIn, Facebook, Orkut.
Tools: Ning and Nexo to build your own.
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
34. 7. WEB 2.0 Enters the Mainstream
How can you better
communicate with your
stakeholders using new
tools and channels?
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
35. 8. WEB 3.0 – 4.0 / Way Beyond Search
Web 3.0: The Semantic or “natural language” Web:
Attach meta-data to information stored on the Web
Like a rich card catalog on top of online content
Turns the web into a relational database
Make search and unstructured data more accessible
Try www.powerset.com for an early example
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
37. 8. WEB 3.0 – 4.0 / Way Beyond Search
Web 4.0: The Ubiquitous Web: Connecting intelligence
into a network of smart markets, natural language agents
and more. Agents that know and reason as humans do.
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
38. 8. WEB 3.0 – 4.0 / Way Beyond Search
Web 1.0 – Web 4.0: From Nova Spivak, Radar Networks & Mills Davis, Project 10x
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
39. 8. WEB 3.0 - Way, Way Beyond Search
Does your marketing
message evoke
‘meaning’, not just
‘words’?
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
40. 9. EVERYTHING TURNS GREEN
Energy demand will grow 57% by 2030
US petroleum consumption will continue to rise from 17M
barrels/day in 1973, to 20M in 2006, and to 25M in 2030.
We have a “perfect storm” for innovation in energy today:
Energy price, volatility, global awareness & climate change
Every week 12MM people join the Internet, most from outside
the USA.. So…
Energy required to power the Internet doubles every 5 years.
35% of all energy in the home now drives computers and TV.
1/3 of all homes got rid of a CE device in 2007 – half in perfect
working order.
7% trashed. 9% recycled. 67% resold/gifted. 20% donated.
Greening I.T.: Minimize energy use; Reduce CO2 emissions;
and minimize electronic waste.
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
41. 9. EVERYTHING TURNS GREEN
What initiatives has your
company undertaken to
ensure the betterment
of our environment?
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
42. 10. The CIO becomes a Business Strategist
An important member of senior team - determining how to invest
capital more effectively to reduce costs, improve productivity and
achieve corporate objectives.
Process Improvement, not system build-out, will be Job #1
Division between I.T and operations will diminish, and
Emphasis on mining vast amounts of corp. data will increase
Enterprise applications will start losing their luster in favor of SaaS,
mashups, “On Demand” computing.
IT will reluctantly embrace Web 2.0
CIOs will turn IT into a operational line organization, not just
guardians and protectors of the network.
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
43. 10. The CIO becomes a Business Strategist
How are you adapting to
this new reality? What
can you do to improve
your positioning in the
enterprise?
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
44. Futurology Revisited (Have we learned anything?)
In 2002 “10 Trends”…
2009: Electronic banking replaces most cash
2010: Holistic health care widespread
2011: Translation software replaces most foreign
language teaching
2012: Organic farming boom cuts pesticide use by
one-half
2013: Half of all household waste recycled
2015: Manufacturing jobs sink to 10% of all U.S. work
2018: Half of all goods will be sold on-line…
(c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved
45. But then again…
“The future ain’t what it
used to be.”
Yogi Berra
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46. And…
“It may be your sole
purpose in life to serve as
a warning to others.”
Anonymous
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