This document discusses trends in housing preferences and how they are shaping development in Maine. It notes that over half of all homebuyers fall into three categories - Small Town Civics, Young Turks, and Introspectives - but only a small portion of new housing addresses their preferences. Four forces - the recession, gas prices, connectivity, and generation Y - are changing the market. Younger generations prefer walkable urban and small town living near amenities over car-dependent suburbs. Developers are starting to tap into this demand through mixed-use projects, mill redevelopment, transit-oriented development, and infill that support walkability.

1. Smart Money on Smart Growth
Trends since 2006
Evan Richert
2012 GrowSmart Maine Summit

2. A Few Old Friends
Small Town Civics
Young Turks
Introspectives

3. The Untapped Market
Share of All
Homebuyers Share Not Served
Small Town Civics 24% 70%
Young Turks 12% 36%
Introspectives 15% 35%
Totals
51% 37%

5. 4 Forces Shaping Market Preferences:
• Great Recession
• Gasoline Prices
• Connectivity
• Rise of GenY

6. Charting Maine’s
Future Released

7. Charting Maine’s
Future Released
Source: D. Short, Advisors Pspective, Inc.

8. Shifting Breakeven Cost, Housing + Commuting
Portland Area

9. Shifting Breakeven Costs, Housing + Commuting
Bangor Area
Housing + Commuting Costs
(work in Bangor)
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
Commuting Cost
$5,000 Housing Cost
$0

10. Connectivity since 2006
3-Ring Bind
Active Twitter Accounts, 2007 v 2012 Three-Ring Binder
160
140,000,000
140
120
Millions
100
80
60
40
20
50,000
0
Charting Maine’s 2007 2012
Future Released;
Twitter est. 2006

11. Est. Maine Population
by Generation, 2011
0 100 200 300 400
Thousands
>65 yrs
Baby Boom 382,000
Gen X
Gen Y 301,000
0-9 yrs

12. Where Gen Y Lives and Works
“They are willing to pay for the ability to walk. They don’t want to
be in a cookie-cutter type of development. The suburbs will need
to evolve to be attractive to Gen Y.”
-- Melina Duggal, RCLCO Real Estate Advisors, 2011 NAHB
Current Location of Gen-Y Current and Projected Location of
Owners Gen Y Work Places
Urban Urban
72%
(Downtown, In-City 49% (Downtown, In-City
N'hood, Small City) N'hood, Small City)
Suburbs (Older & Suburbs (Older & 21%
Outlying)
38% Outlying)
2015
2010
Source: ULI, 2011
6%
Rural Community 14% Rural Community
0% 20% 40% 60% Source: ULI, 2011 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

13. Fewer and Shorter Vehicle Trips
Change in Vehicle Trips and Miles
Per Person 18-34 yrs old, 2001-2009
0.0%
-5.0% -4.2%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-16.6%
-20.0%
-21.5%
-25.0%
Population 18-34 Vehicle trips Vehicle miles
Source: NHTS, US Dept of Transportation

14. Importance of Walking Distance to
Shopping, Gathering Spaces: Gen Y
Essential 14%
Preferable 50%
Not an Issue 36%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Source: ULI, “Generation Y: America’s New Housing Wave,” 2011

15. Tapping into the Market

16. Dunstan Crossing…

17. …And Eastern Village

18. Flexible, Networked Work Space
PelotonLabs,
Portland
Think Tank,
Portland
CoLab
Gardiner

19. New Wave of Mill Redevelopment
Hathaway Creative Center,
Waterville
Sanford Mill,
Bates Mill and Sanford
Fountain Park,
Lewiston

20. New Life for Downtown Waterfronts:
Entertainment
Bangor Waterfront Pavilion

21. Infill on <5000 sf Lots, So. Portland
Photos: Kristel Sheesley

22. Seeping into the Official Language
Transit-Oriented Development TIF
District (Orono-UMaine Shuttle)
Traditional Neighborhood Development
(TND) Zoning District, Scarborough
Form-Based Zoning Walkability
(Standish) (walkscore.com)

23. A Few Old Friends
Small Town Civics
Young Turks
Introspectives