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Climate 
Change 
mitigation: 
IPCC 
report 
2014 
WG 
III 
1 
This is a faithful summary of the leading 
scientific consensus report produced in 2014 by 
the IPCC : "Climate Change 2014: Mitigation 
of Climate Change” 
Climate Change mitigation: practical measures to limit 
global warming IPCC report 2014 Working Group III 
How are uncertainties handled in this 
report? 
The 
IPCC 
uses 
a 
very 
specific 
language 
when 
it 
comes 
to 
expressing 
the 
degree 
of 
uncertainty 
or 
agreement 
for 
each 
statement 
in 
the 
fifth 
assessment 
report. 
For 
an 
overview 
of 
the 
specific 
meaning 
of 
each 
qualifier, 
you 
can 
read 
the 
relevant 
section 
in 
our 
summary 
of 
the 
Working 
Group 
I 
report. 
What is projected by emission scenarios? 
For 
scenarios 
without 
mitigation 
efforts 
beyond 
those 
in 
place 
today, 
greenhouse 
gas 
concentrations 
would 
reach 
750 
to 
over 
1300 
ppm 
CO2eq 
by 
2100 
(versus 
400 
ppm 
now). 
Global 
surface 
temperature 
would 
increase 
by 
2.5 
to 
7.8 
°C 
over 
pre-­‐industrial 
levels 
(high 
confidence). 
Greenhouse 
gases 
emissions 
are 
expected 
to 
continue 
to 
grow 
in 
all 
sectors 
except 
agriculture, 
forestry 
and 
other 
land 
uses 
(robust 
evidence, 
medium 
agreement). 
By 
2050, 
the 
emissions 
from 
the 
energy 
supply 
sector 
are 
projected 
to 
triple 
compared 
to 
2010, 
mainly 
from 
the 
electricity 
used 
in 
buildings 
and 
industry. 
Emissions 
from 
transport 
and 
buildings 
are 
projected 
to 
almost 
double, 
unless 
improvements 
in 
energy 
efficiency 
are 
accelerated 
(medium 
evidence, 
medium 
agreement). 
Scenarios 
limiting 
CO2eq 
concentrations 
to 
about 
450 
ppm 
by 
2100 
– 
necessary 
to 
limit 
global 
warming 
to 
2°C 
above 
pre-­‐industrial 
levels 
– 
require 
greenhouse 
gas 
emissions 
that 
are 
40% 
to 
70% 
lower 
in 
2050 
than 
in 
2010, 
and 
near 
zero 
in 
2100. 
This 
requires 
large-­‐scale 
global 
changes 
in 
the 
energy 
supply 
sector 
(robust 
evidence, 
high 
agreement). 
Scenarios 
that 
exceed 
650 
ppm 
CO2eq 
by 
2100 
are 
unlikely 
to 
limit 
global 
warming 
to 
2°C 
above 
pre-­‐ 
industrial 
levels. 
How can climate impact mitigations 
objectives best be reached? 
If 
mitigation 
efforts 
are 
delayed, 
it 
would 
be 
more 
difficult 
to 
limit 
global 
warming 
to 
2°C 
and 
the 
range 
of 
options 
would 
be 
more 
limited 
(high 
confidence). 
Infrastructure 
development 
and 
long-­‐lived 
products 
can 
lock 
a 
society 
into 
a 
pathway 
of 
high 
greenhouse 
gas 
emissions, 
something 
that 
can 
be 
difficult 
and 
costly 
to 
change. 
This 
reinforces 
the 
importance 
of 
early 
action 
for 
ambitious 
mitigation 
(robust 
evidence, 
high 
agreement). 
Since 
most 
greenhouse 
gases 
accumulate 
over 
time 
and 
mix 
globally, 
climate 
change 
can 
only 
be 
effectively 
mitigated 
if 
collective 
actions 
are 
taken 
at 
the 
global 
scale. 
International 
cooperation 
is 
needed 
to 
help 
developing 
and 
spreading 
environmentally 
sound 
technologies. 
In 
order 
to 
accurately 
estimate 
the 
benefits 
of 
mitigation, 
the 
full 
range 
of 
possible 
impacts 
of 
climate 
change 
need 
to 
be 
taken 
into 
account 
by 
social, 
economic 
and 
ethical 
analyses. 
What are the possible mitigation measures? 
Major 
options 
needed 
to 
reach 
the 
maximum 
concentration 
objective 
of 
450 
ppm 
CO2eq 
include: 
Replacing 
coal-­‐fired 
power 
plants 
with 
modern, 
highly 
efficient 
natural 
gas 
power 
plants, 
provided 
that 
natural 
gas 
is 
available 
and 
that 
gas 
leaks 
are 
kept 
low 
during 
extraction 
and 
distribution; 
More 
efficient 
energy 
use, 
as 
well 
as 
tripling 
to 
nearly 
quadrupling 
the 
share 
of 
zero-­‐ 
and 
low-­‐carbon 
energy 
sources 
by 
the 
year 
2050; 
this 
includes 
renewables, 
nuclear 
energy, 
fossil 
energy 
with 
CO2 
capture 
and 
storage 
(CCS), 
and 
bioenergy 
with 
CCS 
(BECCS). 
Reducing 
CO2 
emissions 
in 
all 
transport 
modes, 
through 
technical 
improvements, 
behavioural 
changes, 
as 
well 
as 
new 
infrastructure 
and 
urban 
redevelopment 
investments. 
Would decarbonising and CO2 storage 
technologies be effective mitigation tools?
The 
energy 
supply 
is 
currently 
largely 
dominated 
by 
carbon 
intensive 
fossil 
fuels. 
Decarbonising 
it, 
i.e. 
reducing 
the 
amount 
of 
carbon 
it 
releases, 
is 
a 
key 
requirement 
to 
stabilize 
emissions 
below 
580 
ppm 
CO2eq 
by 
2100 
(robust 
evidence, 
high 
agreement). 
However 
in 
the 
near-­‐term, 
there 
may 
be 
more 
to 
be 
gained 
by 
increasing 
energy 
efficiency 
than 
by 
decarbonising 
energy 
supply. 
Carbon 
Storage 
technologies 
currently 
exist, 
but 
there 
is 
a 
need 
for 
regulatory 
incentives 
to 
deploy 
them 
on 
a 
large 
scale. 
Combining 
bioenergy 
with 
carbon 
capture 
and 
storage 
(BECCS) 
can 
bring 
net 
negative 
emissions. 
How can individuals contribute to the 
reduction of greenhouse gas emissions? 
Individuals 
could 
substantially 
lower 
emissions 
by 
changing 
their 
diet, 
reducing 
food 
waste, 
and 
modifying 
consumption 
patterns 
such 
as 
mobility 
demand 
and 
modes, 
energy 
use 
in 
households, 
choice 
of 
longer-­‐lasting 
products. 
Such 
changes 
in 
behaviour 
may 
improve 
energy 
efficiency 
by 
20 
to 
30 
% 
in 
2030 
(medium 
evidence, 
medium 
agreement). 
In 
developed 
countries, 
lifestyle 
and 
behavioural 
changes 
could 
reduce 
energy 
demand 
in 
buildings 
by 
up 
to 
20% 
in 
the 
short 
term 
and 
by 
up 
to 
50% 
by 
mid-­‐century. 
What would be the cost of climate change 
mitigation? 
If 
all 
countries 
would 
begin 
mitigation 
measures 
immediately 
and 
on 
the 
same 
basis, 
reaching 
concentrations 
of 
about 
450ppm 
CO2eq 
by 
2100 
entails 
losses 
in 
global 
consumption 
of 
1 
to 
4% 
in 
2030, 
2 
to 
6% 
in 
2050, 
and 
3 
to 
11% 
in 
2100. 
This 
is 
quite 
small 
considering 
that 
global 
consumption 
should 
grow 
anywhere 
from 
300% 
to 
over 
900% 
during 
this 
century. 
Delaying 
mitigation 
would 
increase 
the 
costs. 
The 
distribution 
of 
the 
costs 
would 
vary: 
the 
majority 
of 
mitigation 
efforts 
would 
take 
place 
in 
countries 
where 
future 
emissions 
are 
expected 
to 
be 
highest, 
as 
well 
as 
in 
sectors 
where 
key 
mitigation 
technologies 
are 
effective. 
Mitigation 
measures 
entail 
a 
wide 
range 
of 
possible 
adverse 
side-­‐effects 
as 
well 
as 
co-­‐benefits, 
which 
have 
not 
been 
well 
quantified. 
For 
instance, 
the 
land 
used 
to 
plant 
trees 
as 
carbon 
sink 
cannot 
be 
used 
for 
human 
food, 
animal 
feed 
or 
bioenergy 
crops. 
How will mitigation affect the energy 
industry? 
Revenues 
from 
the 
export 
of 
coal 
and 
oil 
are 
expected 
to 
decrease 
(high 
confidence). 
The 
effect 
on 
natural 
gas 
exports 
is 
more 
uncertain. 
Nuclear 
energy 
could 
make 
an 
increasing 
contribution 
to 
low-­‐carbon 
energy 
supply, 
but 
a 
variety 
of 
barriers 
and 
risks 
exist 
(robust 
evidence, 
high 
agreement). 
New 
technologies 
addressing 
some 
of 
these 
issues 
are 
being 
Climate 
Change 
mitigation: 
IPCC 
report 
2014 
WG 
III 
2 
investigated 
and 
progress 
has 
been 
made 
in 
nuclear 
safety 
and 
waste 
disposal. 
Methane, 
biofuels 
and 
electricity 
produced 
from 
low-­‐ 
carbon 
sources 
are 
already 
increasing 
their 
share 
in 
the 
transport 
sector; 
hydrogen 
fuels 
from 
low-­‐carbon 
sources 
are 
an 
option 
for 
the 
longer 
term.soil. 
European 
policies 
of 
air 
quality 
have 
had 
considerable 
success 
in 
the 
past 
in 
reducing 
air 
pollution. 
You 
can 
find 
this 
summary, 
along 
with 
a 
more 
detailed 
one 
on 
the 
GreenFacts 
website 
at: 
http://www.greenfacts.org/en/climate-­‐mitigation-­‐limiting-­‐ 
warming/index.htm 
The 
source 
document 
for 
this 
summary 
can 
be 
found 
on 
the 
IPCC 
website: 
http://www.ipcc.ch/

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Climate Change mitigation: practical measures to limit global warming IPCC report 2014 Working Group III

  • 1. Climate Change mitigation: IPCC report 2014 WG III 1 This is a faithful summary of the leading scientific consensus report produced in 2014 by the IPCC : "Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change” Climate Change mitigation: practical measures to limit global warming IPCC report 2014 Working Group III How are uncertainties handled in this report? The IPCC uses a very specific language when it comes to expressing the degree of uncertainty or agreement for each statement in the fifth assessment report. For an overview of the specific meaning of each qualifier, you can read the relevant section in our summary of the Working Group I report. What is projected by emission scenarios? For scenarios without mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, greenhouse gas concentrations would reach 750 to over 1300 ppm CO2eq by 2100 (versus 400 ppm now). Global surface temperature would increase by 2.5 to 7.8 °C over pre-­‐industrial levels (high confidence). Greenhouse gases emissions are expected to continue to grow in all sectors except agriculture, forestry and other land uses (robust evidence, medium agreement). By 2050, the emissions from the energy supply sector are projected to triple compared to 2010, mainly from the electricity used in buildings and industry. Emissions from transport and buildings are projected to almost double, unless improvements in energy efficiency are accelerated (medium evidence, medium agreement). Scenarios limiting CO2eq concentrations to about 450 ppm by 2100 – necessary to limit global warming to 2°C above pre-­‐industrial levels – require greenhouse gas emissions that are 40% to 70% lower in 2050 than in 2010, and near zero in 2100. This requires large-­‐scale global changes in the energy supply sector (robust evidence, high agreement). Scenarios that exceed 650 ppm CO2eq by 2100 are unlikely to limit global warming to 2°C above pre-­‐ industrial levels. How can climate impact mitigations objectives best be reached? If mitigation efforts are delayed, it would be more difficult to limit global warming to 2°C and the range of options would be more limited (high confidence). Infrastructure development and long-­‐lived products can lock a society into a pathway of high greenhouse gas emissions, something that can be difficult and costly to change. This reinforces the importance of early action for ambitious mitigation (robust evidence, high agreement). Since most greenhouse gases accumulate over time and mix globally, climate change can only be effectively mitigated if collective actions are taken at the global scale. International cooperation is needed to help developing and spreading environmentally sound technologies. In order to accurately estimate the benefits of mitigation, the full range of possible impacts of climate change need to be taken into account by social, economic and ethical analyses. What are the possible mitigation measures? Major options needed to reach the maximum concentration objective of 450 ppm CO2eq include: Replacing coal-­‐fired power plants with modern, highly efficient natural gas power plants, provided that natural gas is available and that gas leaks are kept low during extraction and distribution; More efficient energy use, as well as tripling to nearly quadrupling the share of zero-­‐ and low-­‐carbon energy sources by the year 2050; this includes renewables, nuclear energy, fossil energy with CO2 capture and storage (CCS), and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS). Reducing CO2 emissions in all transport modes, through technical improvements, behavioural changes, as well as new infrastructure and urban redevelopment investments. Would decarbonising and CO2 storage technologies be effective mitigation tools?
  • 2. The energy supply is currently largely dominated by carbon intensive fossil fuels. Decarbonising it, i.e. reducing the amount of carbon it releases, is a key requirement to stabilize emissions below 580 ppm CO2eq by 2100 (robust evidence, high agreement). However in the near-­‐term, there may be more to be gained by increasing energy efficiency than by decarbonising energy supply. Carbon Storage technologies currently exist, but there is a need for regulatory incentives to deploy them on a large scale. Combining bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can bring net negative emissions. How can individuals contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions? Individuals could substantially lower emissions by changing their diet, reducing food waste, and modifying consumption patterns such as mobility demand and modes, energy use in households, choice of longer-­‐lasting products. Such changes in behaviour may improve energy efficiency by 20 to 30 % in 2030 (medium evidence, medium agreement). In developed countries, lifestyle and behavioural changes could reduce energy demand in buildings by up to 20% in the short term and by up to 50% by mid-­‐century. What would be the cost of climate change mitigation? If all countries would begin mitigation measures immediately and on the same basis, reaching concentrations of about 450ppm CO2eq by 2100 entails losses in global consumption of 1 to 4% in 2030, 2 to 6% in 2050, and 3 to 11% in 2100. This is quite small considering that global consumption should grow anywhere from 300% to over 900% during this century. Delaying mitigation would increase the costs. The distribution of the costs would vary: the majority of mitigation efforts would take place in countries where future emissions are expected to be highest, as well as in sectors where key mitigation technologies are effective. Mitigation measures entail a wide range of possible adverse side-­‐effects as well as co-­‐benefits, which have not been well quantified. For instance, the land used to plant trees as carbon sink cannot be used for human food, animal feed or bioenergy crops. How will mitigation affect the energy industry? Revenues from the export of coal and oil are expected to decrease (high confidence). The effect on natural gas exports is more uncertain. Nuclear energy could make an increasing contribution to low-­‐carbon energy supply, but a variety of barriers and risks exist (robust evidence, high agreement). New technologies addressing some of these issues are being Climate Change mitigation: IPCC report 2014 WG III 2 investigated and progress has been made in nuclear safety and waste disposal. Methane, biofuels and electricity produced from low-­‐ carbon sources are already increasing their share in the transport sector; hydrogen fuels from low-­‐carbon sources are an option for the longer term.soil. European policies of air quality have had considerable success in the past in reducing air pollution. You can find this summary, along with a more detailed one on the GreenFacts website at: http://www.greenfacts.org/en/climate-­‐mitigation-­‐limiting-­‐ warming/index.htm The source document for this summary can be found on the IPCC website: http://www.ipcc.ch/