The speech was delivered in "New Era, New TV" seminar organized by Orange Labs Beijing. The presentation focuses on the business models and market trends of online video/TV and mobile TV.
1. Future of TV
Learning from China, Japan and Korea
about the future of TV and Video
Yiqun Bo, Consulting & Research Manager | +8* | www.plus8star.com
New Era, New TV Seminar | Orange Labs Beijing | December 2008
6. Agenda
1. Why China, Japan & Korea?
2. Is advertising the only valid business model?
3. Case studies of successful services
4. What are the barriers?
5. How about mobile?
10. Broadband infrastructure readiness
100%
3G penetration
80%
USA
60%
40%
Japa
Chin
n
a
20%
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
% of Internet connections above 5Mbps
(Source: Akamai, 1H2008)
11. Part 1 Conclusion
1. Why China, Japan and Korea?
China is the world’s largest market
Japan is the most “mobile literate”
Korea is the most “Internet literate”
14. China’s ad market breakdown
US$23.8
billion
Movie
Paper
TV 6% of total
ad market
Online
media
Outdoor
Online
TV/video
15. What if…?
Hockey Stick of
Broken Illusions
“The model is flawed”
Content / $
Content /
Costs
Curve of
Unclear Hope Advertisement
“We’re profitable!”
revenues
Everyone
Here
today
Costs start
before
Time
revenues
Source: Plus Eight Star
16. Facts and Assumptions
#1 | YouTube is still not profitable
#2 | Ad revenues grow “linearly” (?)
#3 | Content grows much faster
#4 | Costs follow content
#5 | Ad$/Content goes down
囧
#6 | …囧
25. Part 2 Conclusion
2. Is advertising the only valid
business model?
Ad-only models seem to have problems
Now, online video is already a media
So there must be some solutions…
29. 3 million subscribers
10 million Unique Visitors/month
2% CTR = 20x Naver! (leading portal)
P2P saves 40% expenses
30. Pandora TV vs. YouTube Korea
(Page Views)
Number of Page Views for Pandora TV and YouTube Korea
500
Page Views (million)
400
Pandora TV
300
200
Over 3 times!
100
YouTube
Korea
Jul.08
Aug.07
Sources: Daum directory
31. Pandora TV | Business Models
Companies Content Creators
(advertisers)
Provide advertising
contents with payment
Creating/posting and
>80% of total Sharing UCC contents
revenue
‘CUPI’ convertible
• Share ad revenue with virtual currency
content creators & sharers
• Charge users premium
content/option
33. Paying members:
7 million members in
200,000
total by Jun 08 (started July 2007)
Mobile members:
1.7 million
(started Aug 2007)
34. Breakdown by gender Breakdown by age
30s
18%
Female: 29%
>30
20s 8%
47%
Male: 71%
<20
27%
35. Main features
• Registration only
• On-video comments
– Over 1.2 billion comments on 1.1 million videos
– Average: 1,000 comments per video!
• Most of the content focus on local pop culture
– Anime, video-games, J-pop music videos, etc.
36.
37. The text on the videos is based on a
timeline, which allows a new form of
asynchronous communication. In
fact, we see ourselves as a
communication service using videos
-- at “Infinity Ventures Summit”, Nov. 2008, Sapporo
Seiji Sugimoto
CEO, Niwango
47. Afreeca TV | Business Model
1. Premium options 3. Create / Upload / Share
2. Use of Afreeca TV’s
cybercash ‘Star Balloon’
Broadizen
(Broadcast + Netizen)
Organizations/ Communities Advertising Companies
Providing ad platform
for advertisements
Setting-up of
broadcasting
system
58. Part 4 Conclusion
4. Where are the barriers?
Ecosystem different from traditional TV
Users pay for the right user experience
Need for 1-click payment systems
65. Mobile Service Trends: Japan
Mobile TV service “One Seg”
Twist screen
with data menu overlay
Decorated and animated mobile
Internet browsing (left)
messaging
66. Mobile Service Trends: Korea
Mobile TV Mobile web browsing service
Video phone call Mobile widget
68. Remaining Questions
What business models for mobile TV?
(data back-channel? M-commerce?)
Who pays for the infrastructure?
How to attract advertisers?
How to get the right content?
How to charge users for content?
69. Part 5 Conclusion
5. How about mobile?
It seems too late for broadcast mobile TV
Affordable alternatives
Ecosystem hard to create
70. Conclusion
1. Why looking at China, Japan & Korea?
• Advanced and innovative markets
2. Is advertising the only valid business model?
• No, other possibilities
3. Case studies of successful services
4. What are the barriers?
• Users are willing to pay
5. How about mobile?
• Unclear
73. There are more ideas
outside your country
than inside
Tom Kelley
CEO, IDEO
The 10 faces of Innovation
74. “Innovation Arbitrage”
About us
•
– +8* | Plus Eight Star is the leading cross-market and cross-cultural consultancy in Asia.
– We provide local expertise & global perspective on mobile and Internet innovation from
China, Japan and South Korea to add value to and accelerate the development of our
clients’ businesses.
Our services
•
– Analysis of proven best practices and business models from Asia
– Other services: executive study trips, market entry strategy, M&A advisory, partners
identification, negotiation support.
Founder & CEO: Benjamin Joffe
•
– 9 years experience with mobile & Internet in Asia
– Selected among “China’s Top 100 mobile industry influencers” in 2007
– Regular speaker at events on mobile and Internet in Asia
– Fluent in English, Japanese, French with working knowledge of Mandarin, Korean and
Spanish
75. Selected References
Adidas | E-commerce strategy for China, Japan & Korea
•
Bouygues Telecom | Cases studies of leading Asian Web 2.0 services
•
and virtual worlds
Deutsche Telekom / T-Online | Benchmark of Korean mobile & Internet
•
convergence strategies
Hemisphere | Analysis of mobile marketing best practices in Japan and
•
South Korea (Hemisphere is a leading digital advertising agency),
analysis of leading social platforms (SNS, virtual worlds, online games).
Microsoft | Analysis of Japan’s key players and market catalysts for
•
mobile commerce market positioning in China
DeNA | Case studies of the best practices of leading social networks in
•
China and South Korea (DeNA operates Mobile Game Town, Japan’s
leading mobile SNS service)
China Mobile | Benchmark of Korean leading online communities
•
Sands Capital Management | Evaluation of China’s investment
•
opportunities in social networks in China
76. Social Work
Mobile Monday
•
– Founder of the Mobile Monday forum in Beijing since 2006 (3,000+
members, 23 events, over 80 presentations).
Media
•
– Monthly column on Asian innovation for Asian Business Leaders (one of
the leading Chinese business magazines), numerous interviews in
international media.
Events
•
– Regular keynote speaker and moderator at Internet, Telecom, Media and
Investment events
e.g. ITU Asia, Asia Venture Capital Forum, China Mobility International Summit,
O’Reilly’s Graphing Social Patterns, Red Herring Asia, Media 08 Conference,
Wireless Developer Forum, Open Web Asia, XMediaLab, Mobile Monday Global
Summit, etc.)