1. Consulting Partners Meeting
Port of Spain, Trinidad, 28 June 2014
GLOBAL STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
Water Security & Growth Futures
Dr Mohamed Ait Kadi
Chair GWP Technical Committee

2. Plan of this talk
1. What are the impacts of water
insecurity/security on the growth
futures?
2. How can we enable effective and
sustainable use of water resources?
• Conclusion

3. « As the global economy grows, so
will its thirst. This is not an issue of
rich or poor, north or south. All
regions are experiencing the
problem of water stress. There is still
enough water for all of us – but only
so long as we keep it clean, use it
more wisely and share it fairely.
Gouvernements must engage and
lead, and the private sector also has
a role to play in this effort.. »
Ban Ki-Moon
Secretary –
General
UN, New York

4. Plan of this talk
1. What are the impacts of water
insecurity/security on the growth
futures?
2. How can we enable effective and
sustainable use of water resources?
• Conclusion

5. Mohamed Ait Kadi GWP/TEC
5
Thomas Malthus
1766 - 1834

6. M. AIT-KADI
« Thirst for water & Hunger for Land »

7. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1960 1990 2025
Africa
World
Asia
MENA
‘000 m3

8. In the 20th Century,
Population Grew Three-fold,
But
Water Use Grew Six-fold!
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Km3
Year
Business As Usual
DomDmd IndDmd LvstkDmd IrriDmd.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Km3
Year
Optimistic
DomDmd IndDmd LvstkDmd IrriDmd.

9. Limits to Growth
Conclusion in 1972
“If the present growth trends in world
population, industrialization, pollution, food
production, and resource depletion continue
unchanged, the limits to (physical) growth on
this planet will be reached sometime within
the next one hundred years. The most
probable result will be a rather sudden and
uncontrollable decline in both population and
industrial capacity.”

10. Poster Created for the 1972
Smithsonian Presentation

11. Already today, water-scarce regions account for 36% of
global population (2.5 Bn) and 22% of global GDP (9.4
trillion USD)
11
How many people live in
water short areas (%)?
How much GDP is generated in
water scarce regions (%)?
> 50
< 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
No data
> 40%
20 - 40%
0 - 20%
2010
36
18
46
> 40%
0 - 20%
19
22
2010
20 - 40%
59
2010
SOURCE: IFPRI
2.5 Bn people
9.4 trillion
USD2
Water stress, percent of total renewable water
withdrawn
1 >40% water stress
2 Year 2000 prices

12. If we are to ensure sustained
economic growth, human
security and political stability
over the next decades how we
manage water is becoming an
urgent issue for our societies !!

13. 13
Both supply and demand pressures lead to water stress and
associated risks
Demand pressures Supply pressures
▪ Population growth – direct
– Increased domestic /
urban use
– Increased food demand
▪ Economic growth –
– Increased urban water
use
– Increased industrial
water use
– More water-intensive
diets
▪ Climate change
– Increased crop water
demand
– More reservoir
evaporation
▪ Spatial / temporal
mismatch between supply
and demand
▪ More expensive supply
curve to transport water
▪ Continued water quality
deterioration
▪ Climate change pressures
– Reduced availability with
increased intensity
– Increase in frequency and
intensity of extreme
events damage to
infrastructure & unreliable
supply
– In some cases, decline in
renewable water
Localized ground
water overdraft
Pressures on
ecosystems
(quantity and
quality impacts)
Impact on cost
and viability of
activities, and
increased
competition
across water-
using sectors
Economic /
political conflict
Impacts of Water Stress
Risk to growth!
13

14. Core question on “water
and growth” futures
Given the imperative of water
for underpinning growth…
 …to what extent can
gains in efficiency and
water productivity
(output per drop)
enable higher levels of
growth?
Water
demand
(growth
drivers)
Water
supply
Water stress and
risk to growth!
CR-IFPRI

15. Synergies between Water Securtiy
and Green Growth
Characteristics of Green
Growth
Characteristics of Water
Security
 Ensure enough water for social and
economic development
 Ensure adequate water for
maintaining eco-systems
 Sustainable water availability for
future generations
 Balance the intrinsic value of water
with its uses for human survival
and welfare
 Harness productive power of water
 Minimise the destructive power of
water
 Maintain water quality and avoid
pollution and degradation
15
More effective use of natural
resources in economic growth
Valuing eco-systems
Inter-generational economic
policies
Increased use of renewable
sources of energy
Protection of vital assets from
climate related disasters
Reduce waste of resources –
and finance

16. Under business-as-usual water productivity and medium
growth, 52% of population and 45% of GDP are in
regions at risk due to water stress
16
> 40%
20 - 40%
0 - 20%
2050
52
16
32
2010
36
18
46
> 40%
20 - 40%
0 - 20%
2050
45
25
30
2010
22
19
59
Business as usual (BAU) water productivity, medium growth,
2050
1 >40% water stress
2 Year 2000 prices
SOURCE: IFPRI; team analysis
How many people live in
water short areas?
How much GDP is generated in
water scarce regions?
▪ 4.7 Bn
people,
70% of
2010 pop.
▪ Increase
by 90%
compared
to 2010
▪ 63 trillion
USD2
1.5 x 2010
total GDP
▪ Increase
by 570%
compared
to 2010
Water stress, percent of total renewable water
withdrawn > 50
30 - 40
40 - 50< 20
20 - 30
No data

17. In a “blue world”, water stress can be substantially reduced, with ~1
Bn people and 17 trillion USD2 GDP coming from less water scarce
areas1
17
"Blue" high-productivity scenario medium growth, 2050
SOURCE: IFPRI; team analysis
Water stress, percent of total renewable water
withdrawn
> 40%
20 - 40%
0 - 20%
2050-
Blue
38
2050-
BAU
41
21
16
32
52
38
2050-
BAU
33
2050-
Blue
45
25
30
28
> 40%
20 - 40%
0 - 20%
How much GDP is generated in
water scarce regions?
▪ Decrease
of 11% to
BAU
▪ 1 Bn peo-
ple in less
scarce
regions
▪ Decrease
12% com-
pared to
2010
▪ 17,000 Bn
USD2 in
less scarce
regions
How many people live in
water short areas?
> 50
< 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
No data
1 >40% water stress
2 Based on year 2000 prices

18. Plan of this talk
1. What are the impacts of water
insecurity/security on the growth
futures?
2. How can we enable effective and
sustainable use of water resources?
• Conclusion

19. New Enabling Environment & Instruments
• Policy instruments that promote complementarities (economic,
social, env); & leverage change
• Fiscal instruments: measures that give a price to environmental
goods
• Strengthened institutional arrangements that function within
increasing complexity, cutting across sectoral silos and sovereign
boundaries.
• A new generation of financial instruments that share risk between
governments and investors; make new technology affordable
• Skills development: a new and evolving set of skills to support water
management reforms
• Information and monitoring: set targets, define trajectories and
gather the right information to monitor progress (eg . Water security
indicators)
• Innovation planning: increasing water productivity…
19
Mohamed Ait Kadi GWP/TEC

20. Plan of this talk
1. What are the impacts of water
insecurity/security on the growth
futures?
2. How can we enable effective and
sustainable use of water resources
• Conclusion

21. Conclusion
 The size of today’s water
security challenge should not be
underestimated.
 While the scale and complexity
of this multidimensional
challenge are huge, solutions
are within reach.
 Understanding the connectivity
between the multiple
dimensions of water security is
a critical step in effective policy
design, policy implementation,
and consensus building.

22. Thank You!!!