1. Multiple Interactions Between Food and
Water Security
Developing an Agenda For Action in
South Asia
Uma Lele
Manmohan Agarwal
Sambuddha Goswami

2. Definition of Food Security
Food security: All people, at all times, have
physical, social and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets
their dietary needs and food preferences for an
active and healthy life.
(World Food Summit, 1996).
Availability, Access, Stability and Utilization.

3. Definition of Water Security
The availability of an acceptable quantity and quality
of water for health, livelihoods, ecosystems and
production, coupled with an acceptable level of water-
related risks to people, environments and economies.
----- D. Grey and C. Sadoff. ―Sink or Swim? Water security for growth and development‖. Water Policy
9(2007): 545-57.
Availability, Quality, Health, Livelihoods, Production, Acceptable
Levels of Risks? Environmental Sustainability
Destructive Nature of Water—floods and droughts

4. Despite Rapid Economic Growth
Largest Number of the world’s Largest Share of World’s
hungry in South Asia Undernourishment in 2010, by
Region (Millions)
Number of Undernourished Person
(Millions)
400,0
Northern Africa
350,0
Sub-Saharan Africa
300,0
Latin America and the
250,0
Caribbean
200,0 Eastern Asia
150,0 Eastern Asia (without
China)
100,0
South Asia
50,0
South Asia (without
0,0 India)
South-Eastern Asia
Western Asia
Source: FAO STATISTICS DIVISION

5. 1981 1990
Latin America
Population living below $ 1.25 a Population living below $ 1.25 a and the
Latin America Caribbean
day=1899.83 mil and the day=1818.45 mil 3%
Caribbean
3% Europe and
Rest of East Asia
Central Asia
Europe and and Pacific
Rest of East Asia 0%
China’s and Pacific
12%
Central Asia
0% Middle East and India
10% Middle East
and North
North Africa 24% Africa
Poverty India
22%
1%
Rest of South
1%
Rest of South
Share was Asia
7%
Asia
8%
the Sub-Saharan
Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
largest of China
11%
China
16%
A Much 44% 38%
Larger
Poverty
Incidence 2005 Europe and Central
in 1981 Population living below $ 1.25 a Asia
1%
day=1373.7mil
Latin America and
the Caribbean
Rest of East Asia 3%
Data Source: and Pacific
Middle East and
http://go.worldbank.org/NT2A1XUW India 8%
North Africa
33%
P0 (PovcalNet) Rest of South Asia 1%
GFAR Paper/ GAT Report 11%
Foot Note: The survey years for all
the regions except India are 1981, Sub-Saharan Africa
1990 and 2005 but for India the 28%
China
survey years are 1977.5, 1987.5 15%
and 2004.5.
South Asia 44% and SS Africa 28%
of Global Poverty In 2005

6.  Malnourishment worsened by Rising Prices

7. On Track for Poverty Reduction by 2015 But Off
Track on Food Security?

8. On Track on Water Access but Way Off Track on Sanitation

9. Lowest Per Capita Cultivated Land and Declining
Annual Growth Rates of Agricultural Population Acute Agricultural Land Pressure
in Developing Region 25
1,2 (1980-2007)
1 EAP(DEVELOPING EAP(DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES COUNTRIES ONLY--
20 20)
ONLY--20)
0,8 LAC(DEVELOPING
LAC(DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ONLY--
COUNTRIES 29)
0,6
ONLY--29) MENA(DEVELOPING
15 COUNTRIES ONLY--
0,4 MENA(DEVELOPI 12)
NG COUNTRIES
ONLY--12) SA(DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES ONLY--
0,2 8)
SA(8 COUNTRIES)
10 SSA(DEVELOPING
0 COUNTRIES ONLY--
1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2007 1980-2007 45)
SSA(DEVELOPING EASTERN EUROPE
-0,2 COUNTRIES
ONLY--45)
5
-0,4 ROW(DEVELOPED
REGION)
-0,6
0
-0,8 1980 1990 2000 2007
Source: FAOSTAT Source: FAOSTAT

10. By 2050 Growing Urban and Agricultural Population
LAC (South America+ Central LAC (South America+
America+ Caribbean) Central America+ Caribbean)
Total Urban Population, by Region Total Agricultural Population, by Region (Developing Region)
(Est. & Proj. 2008) (Developing Region)
(Est. & Proj. 2008)
(1000) (1000)
1600000 SSA (Middle+ Eastern+ 900000 SSA (Middle+ Eastern+
Southern+ Western Africa) Southern+ Western Africa)
(Developing Region) (Developing Region)
800000
1400000 MENA (Middle East Asia+ MENA (Middle East Asia+
Northern Africa) (Developing Northern Africa) (Developing
Region) Region)
700000
1200000 Eastern Asia (Excluding Eastern Asia (Excluding
Japan) and Oceania( Japan) and Oceania(
Excluding Australia+ New Excluding Australia+ New
Zealand) (Developing Region) 600000 Zealand) (Developing
1000000 Central Asia+ Western Asia
Region)
Central Asia+ Western Asia
(Excluding Middle East Asian (Excluding Middle East Asian
Countries) 500000 Countries)
800000
South Asia ( 8 Countries South Asia ( 8 Countries
only)(Developing Region) only)(Developing Region)
400000
600000
South-Eastern Asia South-Eastern Asia
(Developing Region) 300000 (Developing Region)
400000
Eastern Europe (Developed
200000 Eastern Europe (Developed
Region)
Region)
200000
Rest of Europe (Developed 100000
Region) Rest of Europe (Developed
Region)
0
1961 2008 2030 2050 Other Developed Region 0
(Australia+ Canada+ Japan+ 1980 2008 2020 Other Developed Region
New Zealand+ USA) (Australia+ Canada+ Japan+
Source: FAOSTAT 2011 Source: FAOSTAT 2011 New Zealand+ USA)
 Situation worse by 2050

11. Slower TFP Growth in South Asia than South East Asia
Agricultural TFP Indexes
(1961-2007)
[South Asia--7 Countries Only] Afghanistan
300
Bangladesh
250 Bhutan
Base Year 1961=100
200 India
Nepal
150
Pakistan
100
Sri Lanka
50 North-East
Asia
South-East
0 Asia
* Data for Maldives are not available
NOTE: Source of TFP Indexes figures is Fuglie, K. 2010. Total factor productivity in the global agricultural economy:
Evidence from FAO data, in The Shifting Patterns of Agricultural Production and Productivity Worldwide. Eds. Julian
Alston, Bruce Babcock, Philip Pardey. Ames, Iowa: Midwest Agribusiness Trade and Research Information Center,
pp 63-95.

12. Large Yield Gap Between East Asia and South Asia
South Asia and East Asia Region: Yield Growth of Total Cereal
(Hg/Ha)
(1961-2009)
450
400
Base Year 1961=100
350
300
250
200
East Asia
150
South Asia
100
50
0
Source: FAOSTAT 2011
Note: South Asia Region (8 countries only) --- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
East Asia Region (5 countries only)—China, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Japan, Mongolia, Republic of Korea.

13. Rapid Growth of Wheat and Rice Production Slow
Growth in Rainfed Food Crops
South Asia Region: Principal Cereal Production
(Tonnes)
(1961-2009)
450000000
400000000
350000000
300000000
Wheat
250000000 Rice, paddy
Sorghum
200000000
Millet
150000000 Maize
Barley
100000000 Buckwheat
50000000
0
Source: FAOSTAT 2011

14. SA’s High Vulnerability to Climate Change
Extreme Weather
 Already 750 million people affected by a natural disasters
in past two decades.
 230,000 deaths
 US$45 billion in damages
Melting of Glaciers in the Himalayas
Sea-level Rise Affecting cities with high populations
Higher Temperatures
Variable Rainfall
Overall 2% Loss of GDP of India by some models

15. Likely Impacts
• Greatly Increased Risk and Uncertainty
• Yield declines—Maize, vs. Rice and Wheat
• Greater Crop and livestock losses
• Change in the World Agricultural Production and Trade
• Biofuels

16. 85 to 95 Percent of Water Use in Agriculture?
WATER-FOOD SECURITY-CLIMATE CHANGE
NEXUS—M. Aiti Kadi
WATER
IWRM
FS
AGRICULTURE CLIMATE
CHANGE
16
AITKADI

17. Declining Net Aid and Falling Shares of
Agriculture in Aid
Aid Flows as % of GDP, by
Region
1982-2007
7
6
5
4
EAP
LAC
3
SA
SSA
2
1
0
1982-90 1991-2000 2001-05 2007
Source: WDR & WDI
FAO. 2009. The State of Food Insecurity in the World: Agarwal and Lele, Forthcoming
Economic Crises – Impacts and Lessons Learned.
Rome: FAO.

18. Focus Workshop on Needed Policies, Investment
Choices and Institutions
Is treatment of climate- water- interactions in national plans adequate? –
E.g. Treatment of Increased Risks and Uncertainty in Research and
Development
Are investment choices right in Policies and Infrastructure development?
E.g. Surface Irrigation vs Ground Water Development vs.
conjunctive use?
Is there a Ground Water Development Policy/Strategy?
Are Energy subsidies/shortages leading to over exploitation of water?
Are Water Related Institutions (both Government and Community Level
from national to local) Effective in addressing issues of efficiency, equity
and sustainability

19. Large Scope to Increase Inter-Regional
and Global-National Cooperation
• An Effective Web based Communication
• GIS Data and Just in Time Distribution
• Investment in Knowledge Generation to Promote Multisectoral
planning
• Demand Management of Water and Crops
• More and Better M and E
• Rapid Translation of Lessons into Action