This is an edited version of a presentation at the March 19, 2010 Books 2.0 event at Olswang in London see http://www.books20.net. More comments are available via the Twitter #books20 hashtag.
Topics: the toxic assumptions of the music industry and what book publishers could learn from them, the reality of upside-down consumers (digital access first), the ecology of selling access vs selling copies, the Napster-Moment in eBooks - and what to do about (or rather, with) it, the characteristics of 'Reading 2.0', the new definition of books, media as a service and the potentials of 'content in the cloud', the future role of publishers... and much more. More details at http://gerd.fm/az1L3s
5. 2 clear mid- to long-term trends:
In Commerce, the importance of
many physical things will decline -
and almost anything ‘digital’ will grow
In Media, anything that provides
‘only copies’ will decline in
importance - almost anything that
provides context, relevance and
‘real experiences’ will grow
6. In the Future of Books,
Retail may well become...
Re-Mail
Re-Link
Re-Package
10. What does the Future look like,
and how can we delay it?
11. Welcome to the past ;)
What does the Future look like,
and how can we delay it?
12. An crucial requirement: Trusting the Users
From the recent survey: “Essentials of Digital
Books from the Consumer’s Point of View “
*DBW via Slideshare
13. Books: the Napster Moment is here
Ubiquitous availability of digital copies of
books is absolutely certain, and imminent
15. Growth in eBook adoption and the
resulting changes in book publishing
are likely be to be extremely
exponential ...not linear
(Ray Kurzweil Huffington Post)
17. Soon: The other 3 Billion (O3B)
Wikipedia: “by allowing direct connection to core networks and 3G Cellular/
WiMAX towers, the O3b Networks system will completely change the
economics of telecommunications infrastructure in the world's fastest-
growing markets for communications services”
20. And what’s new about that......?
• Controlled by the users
• Cross-media by default
• Interactive
• Inter-connected and social,
by default
• Location-aware
• Blurring the lines between
reading stuff (fka Books)
and watching (fka TV)
21. “Walk into the Book”
Augmented Reality
3D Screens
Holography
Smell
22. User Interfaces make all the difference
The computer is work.
The iPhone is ... kind of work.
The iPad / Tablet is... not work
27. Media Evolutions
Past: obtaining information (data) and
communication was (is) important
Present: access to relevant content
becomes more important
Soon: context / social / real-time and
the experience becomes the crucial
differentiator
28. C
on
Re
Packaging is
T EX lev
T an
ce
is is
Content is King
29. What matters is no longer that we
can actually connect and ‘download‘
all of it but who we connect with and
what we actually get i.e.
Content, Context,
Curation,
The Experience
36. Content 2.0: the pricing logic flips
Price Users
100
75
50
25
0
Was Will be
37. Books 2.0: where is the value?
Content i.e. ‘The Words’
Context i.e. Why? How?
Curation & Services 15%
“People Like Me”
Interactivity 30%
5%
Packaging & Formats
10%
20% 20%
100%
Content / Copy
38. No recipe. Yet.
Content i.e. ‘the words’ 11%
22%
Context i.e. why?
Curation & Services
33%
People Like Me
Interactivity 33%
Packaging & Format
20%
30% 40% 5%
45%
10%
10% 5%
15% 20%
39. I pay, you pay, they pay *tx to Shelly Palmer
Advertisers
Bundles Telecoms
Subscriptions Device Makers
Flat Rates Consumers
Governments Social Payments
Micro-Payments
40. I pay, you pay, they pay *tx to Shelly Palmer
SubscriptionsMicro-Payments
Advertisers
Consumers
Bundles Telecoms
Flat Rates
Social Payments
Governments Device Makers
54. A definitive future: Social Books
Social feeds have enabled content discovery through friends
Overwhelmed with choices, consumers increasingly turn to each other
Social networks proliferate to third party sites, friends go everywhere
Source: Gigya
55. Books online = conversation = free marketing
Kevin Kelly: "In the new world of books,
every bit informs another; every page
reads all the other pages”
58. Publisher 2.0
• Filtering, curation, context-making
• Aggregation and connecting things
• All that boring logistical & practical
stuff (aka ‘services’ and
platforms)
• All things that require serious scale
(yes, that does still matter) or real
leverage
• All that expertise that is non-core
for the writer
60. Publisher 2.0 Bu t. ..
• Writers will need to take on a lot
more responsibilities, and become
equal partners
• The financial relationships will shift
more towards agenting models
• Tim OReilly: “...add more value than
you extract” may be a tough mission
63. Advertising will be re-born
as... Content - and we will
actually want to see it!
Advertising will
continue to pay
for a lot of
‘free’ content
Mobile, video, social, location, augmented reality
= major shifts in what ‘advertising’ actually means