Future of Housing, with Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com

Lessons from the Future for Housing
Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008

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Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved
For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 1


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Never Sold Homes

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Green Valley Ranch subdivision, April 4, 2008
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Ap 5
2008
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California
Florida
Colorado
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In healthier times finance was but one part of the
economy, the means for raising capital investment to
apply to productive capacity. For the past two
decades, we have allowed it to become an end in
itself.
- James Howard Kunstler

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ARM Reset Schedule

Jan07 Jan08 Jan09
Credit Suisse 12 March 2007 ©



Jan10 Jan11 Jan2012
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Our Situation
Debt / liquidity
Real estate revaluation
Long term investment priorities
Health Care
Energy / Climate Change
Infrastructure
Education
Culture

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Society A Society B
Everyone lives in 4,000- Everyone lives in 2,500-
square-foot houses and square-foot houses and
has no free time for has 45 minutes available
exercise each day. for exercise each day.
has time to get together has time to get together
with friends one evening with friends four evenings
each month. each month.
has one week of has four weeks of
vacation each year. vacation each year.
Adapted from Robert H. Frank, Falling Behind

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Largest Fries Option

1970 2007

2.6 oz 7 oz

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1972 Honda Civic

1,500 pounds

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2007 Honda Civic

2,904 pounds

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Average Store Sizes

Grocery stores:
1994 35,100 sq. ft.
2006 48,750 sq. ft.

Current “Supercenter” sizes:

Wal-Mart Supercenter 197,000 sq. ft.
Fred Meyer 150,000 sq. ft.
SuperTarget 174,000 sq. ft.

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Context Matters
It’s different from envy.
It’s natural to want to keep up with
surroundings/peer group.
Context has a “trickle-down” effect.
When a pro athlete builds a 20,000 square foot house,
their peers build 12,000 square foot houses.
Middle-income people don’t care about 12,000 square
foot houses.
But when a middle-income person builds a 5,000
square foot house, 1,500sf starts to sound tiny… so
others build & buy 3,500 square foot houses.

Robert H. Frank, Falling Behind

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1950 Average New Home

980 square feet for 3.4 people

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1960’s

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1970’s

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1980’s

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1990’s

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2000’s

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NOW: 5,000-8,000 Sq. Ft. Homes

For 2.6
people

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What Is Your Image Of
The Future?

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Lessons from the Future
At the end of the great
suburban build-out
Peak oil and climate
crisis
Income inequality
Age wave
We are at the beginning
of a reinvention of the
home

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The meta-cycle of suburban development, including
“housing” and all its accessories in roads and chain
stores, is hitting the wall of peak oil. The suburban
build out is over. This will come as an agonizing
surprise to many. The failure to make infinite
suburbanization the permanent basis for an
economy will rock our society for years to come.
- James Howard Kunstler 2007

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Result: Less Oil for Export

Net Oil Exports

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“By 2010, the production of the fuel that has
driven the world’s economy will start to rapidly
decline. This will conflict with the steadily
increasing demand for oil. The collision of these
two trends will lead to shortages and increased
prices, providing a strong incentive to shift to
alternative fuel resources…Due to unequal
distribution through the world of oil and gas supply
and consumption, [the upcoming] transition will
result in significant shifts in global power and
wealth.”
Ray Leonard,Vice-President-Eurasia,
Kuwait Energy Company
2001 and June 27, 2008

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Environmental
tipping points
visible

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Arbor Day Planting Map

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www.williamcalvin.com
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www.williamcalvin.com
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Environment & Energy
Lesson
End of cheap oil and a melting world
mean taking green leadership, and the
good news is we have most or all of
what we need to do this fast: build a
grid that downloads and uploads,
upgrade our buildings and community
design, and we nearly have all the new
community & transportation designs
we need

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Konarka Technologies, Technology Review July/August 2004
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NanoSolar.com



Grid Power

Heiner Gärtner saved the family farm by
turning it into a solar electricity plant with
10,050 solar panels.
200 Acre Farm, SE Germany
$600,000 per year in electricity sales
1000 pigs, waste into biogas

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Average Incomes
Fell for Most in 2000-2005
NYT August 21, 2007

Nearly half of Americans reported
incomes of less than $30,000,
and two-thirds make less than
$50,000.

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Change in Before Tax Income
1949-1979

+116 +100 +111 +114 +99 +86
120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
Bottom Second Middle Fourth Top 20% Top 5%
20% 20% 20% 20%

Census Bureau ©



Change in Before Tax Income
1979-2003

+3.5 +9.1 +12.6 +21.5 +45.7 +68
70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
Bottom Second Middle Fourth Top 20% Top 5%
20% 20% 20% 20%

Census Bureau ©



What has the middle-class
done to keep up?

Working longer hours
Reduced savings
Increased indebtedness
Longer commutes
Growing sleep deprivation
Public service cutbacks


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Income and wealth inequality have been rising
sharply in the United States for several decades,
exacting a heavy toll on middle-income families.
When market forces cause inequality to grow, public
policy in most countries pushes in the opposite
direction. That was also once the pattern in the
United States. But more recently, we have
responded by cutting taxes for the wealthy and
reducing services for the needy. Historians will
someday struggle to explain this puzzling reversal.

- Robert H. Frank


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Age Wave Implication
Increasingly, 65-somethings will be
facing large homes with dark
bedrooms, lots of yard work, and a
rusting basketball hoop over the
garage. How many graying boomers
will actually live in those 5000sf
McMansions? Will you? But who
else can afford them?

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Reinventing the Home

TECHNOLOGY
Green evolutions
Nanotech and Materials
IT and Automation
Re-thinking Processes: the need for
order of magnitude improvement in
cost

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Greening the Home
Green evolutions 22% of electricity
Energy used for lighting in
Lighting U.S. Switch to
Appliances alternatives saves
80 coal plants or
Roof-top Solar
30 nuclear plants
Passive energy
Integrated
Wind energy Controls – 50-80%
Non-destructive tear- savings
downs Advanced gas hot
….. water heater –
20-30% savings

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Aging the Home
1st Floor Master Rocker switches
Dual Suites Adjustable counters
Wide hall ways
Ramps, slopes
Decreasing
Contrasting size & cost by
Steps one-half

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LA 1950 2007 74 homes 2017 2027
Beanfields

2037 2047 2057 LA 2067

Paul Glover dream, http://www.ithacahours.com/losangeles.html ©



Conclusion:
It is Time to Reinvent
Home and Community
Energy & Environment Homes Could Become…
Challenges The center for living,
Facing turbulent, unequal working, caring
economic time In communities going
A world in which back to future
60,000,000 new people Nanotech and Materials
per year will need shelter, IT and Automation
including the aging Need: Breakthrough
30% turnover in housing thinking in design & cost
stock at a minimum

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Imagine a place which leaves you enough
time to do other things. Imagine a place
which will leave you enough money to
enjoy your life. Imagine a place where
your soul is at peace. This place already
exists.

It is time to reinvent housing…
for all of us.

Zenkaya.com
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Future of Housing, with Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com

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Future of Housing, with Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com