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Tourism Barometer
 Snapshot Q2 2012
  Expectations of the
Greek Hospitality Sector




       April 2012
Barometer Snapshot Q2 2012
• This quarter no detailed analysis per region and per hotel category as all
  barometers are deeply red coloured. The climate is very negative.
• Both city and resort hoteliers are very pessimistic for the coming quarter
  as well as for 2012 as a whole.
• City hotels
    – City hoteliers are very negative in terms of occupancy and rate development
      for both the second quarter as well as for 2012 in general. Very few hoteliers
      expect a better performance compared to 2011.
• Resort hotels
    – For the second quarter resort hotels are not optimistic. Falling occupancy
      and rates are forecasted by hoteliers for both their own properties and for the
      market as a whole.
    – Some resort hoteliers show a bit of optimism for the overall performance of
      2012, but only for their own hotels, as for the market in general they expect
      sharply falling occupancy and room rates in comparison with 2011.
How to read the Quarter meters
•      All the meters reflect the hoteliers’ projections for current Quarter with
       respect to Occupancy (OCC) and the Average Room Rate (ARR) for:
         – their Own Hotels, in the top half of each page
         – the Market Overall, in the bottom of each page

                                                                                           37% expects
                             The needle shows the                                         stabilisation –
                              overall expectation /                                   between -2% and +2%
                                    feeling1
                                                                                                 18% expects an
           19% expects a                                                                            increase -
            decrease –                                           37%                           between 2% and 5%
                                                 19%
        between 2% and 5%
                                                                        18%
                                           19%
                                                                          7%
          19% expects a                                                                                7% expects an
           decrease –                                                                                   increase –
          more than 5%                                                                                 more than 5%


1
    The position of the arrow is based on the weighted average of the projections for increases and decreases, where the
    increases / decreases of more than 5% have a weight twice as high as the increases / decreases of between 2% and 5%
                                                            50.0%
Expectations for 2012 Q2
                                              «MY HOTEL»


      All hotels
                                   17%                                         26%
                                           23%
Overall hoteliers are      47%                                     45%                 16%
very pessimistic on the                       10%                                            7%
outlook of the coming                            3%
                                                                                              7%

quarter based on the
                                  ΟCC                                       ARR
performance of the first
quarters and bookings.

A fast majority expects                  «MARKET IN GENERAL»
severe declines in                50%                                        50%
occupancy and room
rates for the second               27%
                            47%                                     62%              10%
quarter. Very few
hoteliers expect                                                                           17%
                                            23%                                              3%
improvements                                                                                 7%
                                                  3%
compared to the same
quarter last year.                ΟCC                                       ARR



                                          % of respondents that expected
                           Decrease       Decrease     Stability         Increase      Increase
                                  50%                                         50%
                           >5%            2 – 5%       -2% - +2%         2 – 5%        >5%
Expectations for 2012
                                                   «MY HOTEL»


      All hotels
                                17%                                                 17%
                                        21%
                                                                                          10%
The outlook for 2012     38%                  10%
                                                                     52%
                                                                                            7%
as a whole is negative
                                               14%                                              14%
as well, although more
hoteliers show some
                                 ΟCC                                          ARR
optimism compared to
the forecast for the
second quarter.
                                            «MARKET IN GENERAL»
The expected                                                                   50%
performance of their              50%

own hotel units is                    14%
                                             17%                      62%             10%
better than for the       52%                                                             17%
market in general, but                        7%
                                                                                                3%
overall hoteliers are                              10%                                          7%
very pessimistic and
expect falling                   ΟCC                                          ARR
occupancy levels and
room rates.
                                            % of respondents that expected
                          Decrease          Decrease     Stability         Increase       Increase
                          >5%    50%        2 – 5%       -2% - +2%         2 – 5%
                                                                                50%       >5%
Expectations for 2012 Q2
                                                  «MY HOTEL»


     City hotels
                             71%                                                  13%
                                           5%                       60%
After the first quarter                         6%                                      12%
city hoteliers remain
                                                 12%                                     14%
clearly very
pessimistic, which
                                   ΟCC                                      ARR
applies for their own
hotels as well as for the
market as a whole.
                                          «MARKET IN GENERAL»
Between 60% - 70%                                                           49%
                                    49%
expects that occupancy
and room rates will           64%                                    71%
drop by more than 5%.                      21%
                                                                                    14%
                                                 7%                                      7%
85% expects for the                              7%                                       7%
market as a whole
declining occupancy                 ΟCC                                     ARR
and rates.
                                           % of respondents that expected
                            Decrease       Decrease     Stability    Increase       Increase
                            >5%    49%     2 – 5%       -2% - +2%    2 – 5%
                                                                          49%       >5%
Expectations for 2012
                                                   «MY HOTEL»


     City hotels
                                      14%
                                            7%                        72%
                            50%
For 2012 city hoteliers                      14%                                    15%
forecast falling                                                                      6%
                                                 14%
occupancy and room                                                                        6%
rates resulting in a very
                                    ΟCC                                       ARR
negative climate. The
majority expects drops
of 5% and more.
                                            «MARKET IN GENERAL»
About 28%, however,
                                    50%                                       49%
expects increasing
occupancy levels for          64%           6%                        71%
their own hotel units,                        6%
                                                 8%                                 15%
while 23% expects this                                                                6%
trend for the market as                            15%
                                                                                          8%
a whole.
                                    ΟCC                                       ARR
With respect to rates
very few are optimistic.
                                             % of respondents that expected
                            Decrease         Decrease     Stability    Increase     Increase
                            >5%    49%       2 – 5%       -2% - +2%    2 – 5%
                                                                            49%     >5%
Expectations for 2012 Q2
                                                     «MY HOTEL»


   Resort hotels
                                  25%          38%                                38%
For Q2 resort hoteliers
expect falling             25%                       6%                 31%              31%
occupancy and                                        6%
pressure on room
                                        ΟCC                                      ARR
rates. For the market in
general hoteliers are
more negative than for
their own hotel units                         «MARKET IN GENERAL»
both in terms of                                                                  49%
                                        49%
occupancy and rates.
                                        31%
                                                                                    7%
A majority expects                                                      54%              27%
falling occupancy and                            38%
                            31%
rates for both their own                                                                   13%

hotels and for the
market in general.                      ΟCC                                      ARR



                                               % of respondents that expected
                             Decrease          Decrease     Stability         Increase   Increase
                                    49%                                            50%
                             >5%               2 – 5%       -2% - +2%         2 – 5%     >5%
Expectations for 2012
                                                        «MY HOTEL»


   Resort hotels
                                 20%         33%                                20%    13% 7%
Resort hoteliers have
                                                   7%
turned clearly negative    27%                                       33%                         27%
                                                   13%
for their performance of
2012, while in Q1 they
                                       ΟCC                                      ARR
were still slightly
pessimistic.

For their own hotels                          «MARKET IN GENERAL»
about 20% expect
                                       50%                                      50%
improvements in
occupancy levels and                   20%                                            7%
a third of the hoteliers                       27%                       53%
                                                                                           27%
                             40%
expect increasing room
                                                   7%
rates.                                               7%
                                                                                                 13%


Still, the outlook is                  ΟCC                                      ARR
overall negative and
very negative for the
market as a whole for                          % of respondents that expected
2012.                        Decrease          Decrease      Stability     Increase         Increase
                             >5%    51%        2 – 5%        -2% - +2%          50%
                                                                           2 – 5%           >5%
Tourism Barometer
      2012 Q2
    Expectations
Greek Hospitality Sector




   4, Sekeri Street
   106 74 Athens
   Phone: +30 210 3605002
   Fax:   +30 210 3606935
   Web: www.gbrconsulting.gr
   Email: info@gbrconsulting.gr

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GBR tourism barometer 2012 Q2

  • 1. Tourism Barometer Snapshot Q2 2012 Expectations of the Greek Hospitality Sector April 2012
  • 2. Barometer Snapshot Q2 2012 • This quarter no detailed analysis per region and per hotel category as all barometers are deeply red coloured. The climate is very negative. • Both city and resort hoteliers are very pessimistic for the coming quarter as well as for 2012 as a whole. • City hotels – City hoteliers are very negative in terms of occupancy and rate development for both the second quarter as well as for 2012 in general. Very few hoteliers expect a better performance compared to 2011. • Resort hotels – For the second quarter resort hotels are not optimistic. Falling occupancy and rates are forecasted by hoteliers for both their own properties and for the market as a whole. – Some resort hoteliers show a bit of optimism for the overall performance of 2012, but only for their own hotels, as for the market in general they expect sharply falling occupancy and room rates in comparison with 2011.
  • 3. How to read the Quarter meters • All the meters reflect the hoteliers’ projections for current Quarter with respect to Occupancy (OCC) and the Average Room Rate (ARR) for: – their Own Hotels, in the top half of each page – the Market Overall, in the bottom of each page 37% expects The needle shows the stabilisation – overall expectation / between -2% and +2% feeling1 18% expects an 19% expects a increase - decrease – 37% between 2% and 5% 19% between 2% and 5% 18% 19% 7% 19% expects a 7% expects an decrease – increase – more than 5% more than 5% 1 The position of the arrow is based on the weighted average of the projections for increases and decreases, where the increases / decreases of more than 5% have a weight twice as high as the increases / decreases of between 2% and 5% 50.0%
  • 4. Expectations for 2012 Q2 «MY HOTEL» All hotels 17% 26% 23% Overall hoteliers are 47% 45% 16% very pessimistic on the 10% 7% outlook of the coming 3% 7% quarter based on the ΟCC ARR performance of the first quarters and bookings. A fast majority expects «MARKET IN GENERAL» severe declines in 50% 50% occupancy and room rates for the second 27% 47% 62% 10% quarter. Very few hoteliers expect 17% 23% 3% improvements 7% 3% compared to the same quarter last year. ΟCC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase 50% 50% >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 5. Expectations for 2012 «MY HOTEL» All hotels 17% 17% 21% 10% The outlook for 2012 38% 10% 52% 7% as a whole is negative 14% 14% as well, although more hoteliers show some ΟCC ARR optimism compared to the forecast for the second quarter. «MARKET IN GENERAL» The expected 50% performance of their 50% own hotel units is 14% 17% 62% 10% better than for the 52% 17% market in general, but 7% 3% overall hoteliers are 10% 7% very pessimistic and expect falling ΟCC ARR occupancy levels and room rates. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 50% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 50% >5%
  • 6. Expectations for 2012 Q2 «MY HOTEL» City hotels 71% 13% 5% 60% After the first quarter 6% 12% city hoteliers remain 12% 14% clearly very pessimistic, which ΟCC ARR applies for their own hotels as well as for the market as a whole. «MARKET IN GENERAL» Between 60% - 70% 49% 49% expects that occupancy and room rates will 64% 71% drop by more than 5%. 21% 14% 7% 7% 85% expects for the 7% 7% market as a whole declining occupancy ΟCC ARR and rates. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 49% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 49% >5%
  • 7. Expectations for 2012 «MY HOTEL» City hotels 14% 7% 72% 50% For 2012 city hoteliers 14% 15% forecast falling 6% 14% occupancy and room 6% rates resulting in a very ΟCC ARR negative climate. The majority expects drops of 5% and more. «MARKET IN GENERAL» About 28%, however, 50% 49% expects increasing occupancy levels for 64% 6% 71% their own hotel units, 6% 8% 15% while 23% expects this 6% trend for the market as 15% 8% a whole. ΟCC ARR With respect to rates very few are optimistic. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 49% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 49% >5%
  • 8. Expectations for 2012 Q2 «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 25% 38% 38% For Q2 resort hoteliers expect falling 25% 6% 31% 31% occupancy and 6% pressure on room ΟCC ARR rates. For the market in general hoteliers are more negative than for their own hotel units «MARKET IN GENERAL» both in terms of 49% 49% occupancy and rates. 31% 7% A majority expects 54% 27% falling occupancy and 38% 31% rates for both their own 13% hotels and for the market in general. ΟCC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase 49% 50% >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 9. Expectations for 2012 «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 20% 33% 20% 13% 7% Resort hoteliers have 7% turned clearly negative 27% 33% 27% 13% for their performance of 2012, while in Q1 they ΟCC ARR were still slightly pessimistic. For their own hotels «MARKET IN GENERAL» about 20% expect 50% 50% improvements in occupancy levels and 20% 7% a third of the hoteliers 27% 53% 27% 40% expect increasing room 7% rates. 7% 13% Still, the outlook is ΟCC ARR overall negative and very negative for the market as a whole for % of respondents that expected 2012. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 51% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 50% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 10. Tourism Barometer 2012 Q2 Expectations Greek Hospitality Sector 4, Sekeri Street 106 74 Athens Phone: +30 210 3605002 Fax: +30 210 3606935 Web: www.gbrconsulting.gr Email: info@gbrconsulting.gr