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www.thedialogue.org                                                                                                                                                   January 13-26, 2011




              BOARD OF ADVISORS                                  FEATURED Q&A
 Luis Anavitarte                 Franco Moccia
 VP & Research                   Consultant
                                                                 How Would Ecuador's Banking Referendum Affect the Economy?
 Director, Gartner Inc.                                                   A constitutional referendum


                                                                 Q
                         Edward L.                                                                                                       business groups? Also, it would seem
 Ernesto Armenteros Monahan Jr.                                           planned in Ecuador would ask                                   financial institutions would be banned
 Vice President,         Strategy Advisor                                 citizens whether to limit banks                                from investing in stocks. Would insurers
 Banco de Ahorro y                                                        to providing financial services                                also be banned from investing in stocks?
 Crédito Unión S.A.      Thomas Morante
                         Partner,                                only. Business interests outside the finan-                             Banning bank managers from holding
                         Holland & Knight, LLP                   cial sector could lead to conflicts of inter-                           stock would mean that bankers would
 Richard Child
 Founder,                                                        est, said the office of President Rafael                                essentially have to invest their equity over-
                         Manuel Orozco                           Correa. How would barring banks from                                    seas. A similar ban on bank directors
 Mattrix Group           Director, Remittances
                         & Development                           holdings outside of the financial services                              would mean the end of functioning bank
 Jeanne Del Casino Program, Inter-                               industry affect Ecuador's economy?                                      boards, since it makes little sense to have
 VP & Regional Credit American Dialogue                          Which companies would be most affect-                                   board members that have no link whatso-
 Officer, Latin American
 Banks, Moody's                                                  ed, and how would it affect consumers?                                  ever to the private economy. Consumers
                         Adalberto Palma-
 Investors Service       Gomez                                   What are the chances for the referen-                                   would not be directly affected, but some
                         Senior Partner,                         dum's passage?                                                          business groups would have to divest
 Michael Diaz Jr.        APERTURE S.C.                                                                                                                          Continued on page 3
 Partner,                                                                    Walter Spurrier, president of


                                                                 A
 Diaz, Reus & Targ, LLP Yoshihiro Sakai
                         Executive VP,                                       Grupo Spurrier and director of
 Ernesto Fernández Microfinance                                              Weekly Analysis in Guayaquil,
 Holmann                 International Corp.                                 Ecuador: "If the question is
 Chairman of the                                                 included in the referendum in its present
 Board, Ayucus           Jan Smith                               form (the referendum is still at a prelimi-
                         Former Managing
 Tom Haider              Director,                               nary stage), quite likely it would be
 Consultant              Kroll, Inc.                             approved, as bankers are not popular and
                                                                 the president is. But the Constitutional
 Earl Jarrett                    Roberto Teixeira                Court could object that it curtails the
 General Manager,                da Costa
                                 Board Member,                   rights of citizens—in this case, those of
 Jamaica National
 Building Society                SulAmérica S/A                  bankers and bank directors—and that in                                   Bradesco, Citibank Reportedly
                                                                 itself is unconstitutional. The devil is in the                          Interested in PanAmericano
 Thomas J.                                                       details. There are restrictions now on
 Mackell Jr.                                                     investments in nonfinancial businesses by                                Brazil's Banco Bradesco and U.S.-
 Chairman,                                                       banks. But many banks own insurance                                      based Citigroup are reportedly interest-
 United Benefits and
 Pension Services Inc.                                           companies. Would these investments be                                    ed in buying Banco PanAmericano,
    Subscribers may pose questions to the                        allowed, and thus, insurance be considered                               which is controlled by billionaire Silvio
    Board of Advisors for the Featured Q&A by                    part of the financial business? In which                                 Santos. See story on page 2.
    contacting Editor Gene Kuleta at:                            case, will insurance companies be barred
    gkuleta@thedialogue.org Masthead-                                                                                                     File Photo: Brazilian Government.
                           -End                                  from having linkages with nonfinancial


Inside This Issue
FEATURED Q&A: How Would Ecuador's                                Jamaican Lower House Approves                                           Inflation, Peso Shortage Drive
Banking Referendum Affect the Economy?.......1                   Wider Protections for Depositors........................2               Up Argentine Credit Card Debt ............................3
Bradesco, Citibank Express Interest                              Mexico's Gruma to Sell Most                                             Subscriber Notice: Yoshihiro Sakai Joins
in Buying Banco PanAmericano..........................2          of Stake in Banorte ................................................2   Financial Services Advisor Board .......................4
Santander Chile Planning to                                      Chile's CorpBanca Reports                                               Political and Economic News:
Increase Loans to $5.5 Billion ..............................2   38.7% Increase in Profit for 2010 .........................3            Haiti, Brazil, Cuba and More.............................4-5

Copyright © 2011, Inter-American Dialogue                                                                                                                                              Page 1 of 6
Inter-American Dialogue’s Financial Services Advisor                                                           January 13-26, 2010


  FINANCIAL SERVICES BRIEFS                  Financial Services News
  Mexico's Gruma to Sell
  Most of Stake in Banorte                   Bradesco, Citibank Express Interest             told El Mercurio in an interview published
  Mexico's Gruma said Jan. 21 that it        in Buying Banco PanAmericano                    Jan. 22. An increase of that size would
  is planning to sell most of its stake                                                      amount to a 17 percent increase from
                                             Brazil's Banco Bradesco and U.S.-based          2010. The bank is seeking to boost loans
  in Grupo Financiero Banorte
                                             Citigroup have expressed interest in buy-       to $18 billion within three years and the
  through a secondary offering, Dow          ing Banco PanAmericano, Brazilian               increase would come mainly from financ-
  Jones reported. Gruma, a maker of          newspaper Folha de São Paulo reported           ing to medium and small enterprises and
  corn flour and tortillas, has an 8.8       Jan. 22. However, Silvio Santos, who con-       individuals, Mauricio Larraín told the
  percent stake in the banking group.        trols the Brazil-based bank that received       Santiago-based newspaper. The bank
  In a filing with Mexico's stock            an emergency injection of capital last year,    wants to add 80,000 new customers and
  exchange, Gruma said its global                                                            open 20 new branches to add to the more
  offering of as many as 156 million                                                         than 400 currently operating in the coun-
  shares of Banorte will be made                                                             try, said Larraín. After the global financial
                                                 PanAmericano received an                    crisis, Santander Chile became the
  through a public offering in Mexico
  and a private offering in the United          emergency capital injection of               Spanish bank's fourth largest operation,
  States and other foreign countries.                                                        after Brazil, Spain and Britain. The
                                                 approximately $1.5 billion                  Chilean unit contributed 8 percent of
  BofA Merrill Lynch Names Rosen                          in November.                       Santander's total profits. Santander
  To Investment Banking Post                                                                 Chile's growth will be funded through the
                                                                                             bank's profits and bond sales in Chile, the
  Bank of America Merrill Lynch              became reluctant to sell PanAmericano           United States, Europe and Asia, said
  announced Jan. 12 that it has named        when negotiations began looking into a          Larraín.
  Mark Rosen as its head of Latin            possible selling price for the bank, the
  American investment banking.               newspaper reported. Officials from              Jamaican Lower House Approves
  Based in New York, Rosen will be           Bradesco, Citibank and PanAmericano             Wider Protections for Depositors
  responsible for the company's              refused to publicly comment for the
  investment banking franchise for the       report, which cited unnamed executives          Jamaica's House of Representatives has
  entire region except for Brazil.           who are part of the discussions. Santos'        approved a package of wider protections
  Before joining Bank of America             holding group, Grupo Silvio Santos on           for depositors under the country's
  Merrill Lynch, Rosen worked at             Nov. 9 borrowed approximately 2.5 billion       Deposit Insurance Act, the Jamaica
  Credit Suisse for 12 years as head of      reais ($1.5 billion) from Brazil's Deposit      Gleaner reported Jan. 21. The changes,
                                             Insurance Fund, a nongovernmental               which still must pass the Senate to take
  Latin American and Caribbean
                                             banking guarantor, after the country's          effect, affect depositors with trust
  financial institutions investment          central bank discovered accounting prob-        accounts and in instances where financial
  banking. Before that he was head of        lems     in    PanAmericano's       books.      institutions merge. Now, the Jamaica
  Latin American M&A at Barclays.            PanAmericano's controlling shareholders,        Deposit Insurance Corporation, or JDIC,
                                             which include Brazil-based Caixa                will be able to make direct payments to
  Allpoint Network Adds More
  Than 2,500 ATMs in Mexico                  Econômica Federal, have previously said         depositors who have accounts in dis-
                                             PanAmericano is not for sale, Reuters           tressed banks and other financial institu-
  U.S.-based interbank network               reported. Nevertheless, speculation has         tions     when     the
  Allpoint said Jan. 18 that it has          continued about a possible acquisition of       accounts are part of a
  added 2,500 automated teller               the bank. Brazilian lender Banco BMG,           trust. Previously, the
  machines in Mexico in locations            which specializes in loans to consumers, is     corporation was lim-
  including OXXO convenience stores.         also reportedly interested in taking over       ited to making one
  The machines are owned by                  PanAmericano.                                   payment of as much
  Cardtronics, the world's largest non-                                                      as 600,000 Jamaican
  bank owner of ATMs, said Bethesda,
                                             Santander Chile Planning to                     dollars ($7,080) for
                                             Increase Loans to $5.5 Billion                  each trust account. McKain
  Md.-based Allpoint. The company                                                            The changes give each File Photo: JDIC.
  already has ATMs in the United             The Chilean unit of Banco Santander is          individual depositor
  States, Britain and Australia and says     planning to increase loans to $5.5 billion      in the trust protection for that amount.
  it operates the world's largest sur-       this year as it works to attract more clients   "Now we can recognize each beneficiary,
  charge-free ATM network.                   to the bank, Santander Chile's president        rather than just the trustee," said the

Copyright © 2011, Inter-American Dialogue                                                                                     Page 2 of 6
Inter-American Dialogue’s Financial Services Advisor                                                             January 13-26, 2010


JDIC's chief executive offer, Antoinette        Featured Q&A
McKain. In addition, the changes also           Continued from page 1
allow depositors to make separate claims        themselves from holdings –either finan-         too. The mandatory divesture of finan-
if they have accounts in two or more            cial or nonfinancial, according to their        cial assets would severely damage local
institutions that are forced to merge           preference. Much would also depend on           investment in small markets like
under       distressed     circumstances.       how the constitutional mandate would            Ecuador. Financial regulation is a techni-
Claimants must file for compensation            be regulated through laws, and the latter       cal issue that should not be decided by
within two years of any mergers. "We have       through regulations."                           referendums. The solvency risk to avoid
been trying to get these changes in place
                                                            Franco Moccia, member of the


                                                 A
for a long time now," said McKain.
                                                            Financial Services Advisor
Chile's CorpBanca Reports 38.7%                             board, consultant and former
Increase in Profit for 2010                                 president of Citibank Ecuador:
                                                 "Technical and regulatory matters, such
                                                                                                     “ Financial regulation is a
                                                                                                 technical issue that should not be
Chilean bank CorpBanca, the country's            as financial regulations, are unlikely to be
fifth largest in terms of loans, said Jan. 14
in a preliminary earnings report it a had
                                                 effective if they are set by national refer-
                                                 endums. Would other financial regula-
                                                                                                  decided through referendums.         ”
                                                                                                                          — Franco Moccia
net income of $241.5 million for the year        tion matters such as mandatory cash
2010, a 38.7 percent increase from the           requirements, net worth needs etc. be
previous year, Dow Jones reported.               discussed at a national level and decided
Earlier this month, CorpBanca said it will       via referendums too? Efficient capital
use a planned $750 million capital               markets have independent financial             channeling deposit money to companies
increase to boost lending to large Chilean       authorities with technical skills to deal      related to banks' owners is effectively
corporations, Bloomberg News reported.           with these issues. Almost everywhere an        regulated by tools different than pro-
Banco do Brasil is in negotiations with          interest rate cap would be approved by a       hibiting financial institutions owners to
CorpBanca over the investment.                   referendum creating the severe market          have assets in other industries. The
                                                 distortion in a competitive financial          Ecuadorean government initiative looks
Credit Card News                                 market. Financial regulation to avoid
                                                 lending to related parties is standard in
                                                                                                like a political battle against specific
                                                                                                financial institutions rather than a regu-
                                                 financial markets and is designed to           latory matter and, if approved, will nega-
Inflation, Peso Shortage Drive Up                avoid solvency problems. The risk is mit-      tively impact local and foreign direct
Argentine Credit Card Debt                       igated by setting a very small percentage      investment."
                                                 of the bank net worth to be lent to 'relat-
                                                                                                          César Coronel Jones, founding


                                                                                                A
Accelerating inflation and a shortage of         ed parties' vis-à-vis a bigger percentage
pesos in Argentina is driving Argentines'        allowed for unrelated borrowers. The                     partner at Coronel & Pérez in
credit card debt to record levels as con-        related parties' definition goes from per-               Guayaquil, Ecuador: "At the
sumers meet difficulties finding cash to         centage of direct and indirect ownership                 moment, President Correa's
purchase goods, Bloomberg News report-           to financial supervisor opinion. Small         referendum has high possibilities of been
ed Jan. 24. In December, Argentines              capital markets usually have local con-        approved due to the president's high
charged 26 billion pesos ($6.6 billion) on       glomerates with portfolios diversified in      popularity and the significant political
                                                 different industries and usually have          capital that is invested in the referen-
                                                 financial institutions in their portfolios     dum. However, there is a risk that the
                                                                                                                     Continued on page 6
        Private economists believe
            Argentina's annual
                                                the United States, which stands at 14 per-      high as 27 percent. "It makes sense to use
           rate of inflation is as              cent. Soaring consumer prices are push-         credit cards because, first, you don't have
                                                ing down the savings rate in Argentina,         the cash but, on top of that, real rates are
            high as 27 percent.
                                                where borrowers are wary of banks in the        so negative, and sometimes there are pro-
                                                wake of the government's $95 billion debt       motions where you pay for purchases
                                                default a decade ago, Daniel Volberg, an        over 12 months," Boris Segura, an econo-
credit cards, a 49 percent increase from        economist at Morgan Stanley in New              mist at Nomura Securities International
the same month a year earlier, according        York, told Bloomberg News. The govern-          in New York, told the news service.
to the central bank. Argentine credit cards     ment said annual inflation totaled 10.9         Climbing prices for food and commodi-
carry an average interest rate of 30.5 per-     percent last year, but private economists       ties, along with the U.S. Federal Reserve's
cent, more than twice the average rate in       believe the actual rate of inflation is as      printing of dollars to spur the U.S. econo-

Copyright © 2011, Inter-American Dialogue                                                                                       Page 3 of 6
Inter-American Dialogue’s Financial Services Advisor                                                           January 13-26, 2010


my are stoking inflation concerns around
the world.                                                             Subscriber Notice
Political News                                 Yoshihiro Sakai Joins Financial Services Advisor Board
                                               The Financial Services Advisor is pleased to announce that Yoshihiro Sakai, executive
Duvalier: Desire to Participate in             vice president and chief financial officer of Microfinance International Corp. in
Reconstruction Spurred Return                  Washington has joined the Board of Advisors.
Former Haitian dictator Jean-Claude
                                               Sakai joined Microfinance International last year after serving as
"Baby Doc" Duvalier said Jan. 21 that he
                                               senior advisor and senior economist at the Development Bank of
returned to Haiti on Jan. 16 so that he
                                               Japan, the Japanese government's finance arm. In that position, he
could participate in the impoverished
                                               was in charge of international business management and focused
country's reconstruction after its deadly
                                               largely on China.
earthquake a year ago, the Associated
Press reported. "When I made the deci-
                                               Prior to his work at the Development Bank of Japan, Sakai worked
sion to come back to Haiti to commemo-
                                               as leader of corporate strategy and managing director of Nomura
rate this sad anniversary with you, in our                                                                      Sakai
                                               Holdings in both New York and Tokyo, where he designed
country, I was ready for any kind of per-                                                                       File Photo: MFI.
                                               Nomura's global management structure and global strategy.
secution," Duvalier, 59, told reporters in
Port-au-Prince. "But I believe that the
                                               Before that, Sakai worked for 15 years at the Bank of Japan, the country's central bank,
desire to participate by your side in this
                                               in several management, operational and executive positions. Sakai directed and was
collaboration for the national reconstruc-
                                               involved in negotiations with foreign monetary authorities on behalf of the central
tion far outweighs any harassment I could
                                               bank. He also was manager of the bank's Financial and Payment System Office and
face." A Haitian court is currently weigh-
                                               senior examiner in the Banking Supervision Division and an officer of market opera-
ing whether Duvalier should be tried on
                                               tion in the Credit and Market Management Department.

                                               In addition, Sakai has been a fellow of the American Enterprise Institute and an
                                               adjunct fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He earned a mas-
                                               ter of business administration from the Stern School of Business at New York
                                               University and a master's degree in criminal justice from Boston University.


                                              Saturday with Dominican President              Brazil to Create Nationwide
                                              Leonel Fernández to discuss Haiti's            Disaster Prevention System
                                              cholera epidemic and political crisis. The
Duvalier                                      country's political future remains in          In the wake of floods and mudslides that
File Photo: Le Nouvelliste.                   question after the inconclusive first-         are confirmed to have killed more than
                                              round presidential election Nov. 28. A         800 people in areas north of Rio de
charges including corruption, embezzle-       runoff that had been scheduled for Jan. 16     Janeiro, Brazil will create a new disaster-
ment and torture. The charges stem from       was postponed and has not been resched-        prevention system, officials said Jan. 20,
his 1971-1986 rule, which ended with his      uled. On Jan. 21, the U.S. State               the Associated Press reported. In addi-
flying into exile following a popular         Department revoked the visas of about a        tion, the country's government will
revolt. He has spent most of the past 25      dozen Haitian government officials in an       spend $6.7 billion through 2014 on
years in France. Since his return to Haiti,   effort to pressure the government to drop      drainage and other similar projects in an
Duvalier has largely remained holed up in     its preferred candidate, Jude Célestin,        attempt to prevent future flooding, said
a Port-au-Prince luxury hotel and in a        from the presidential ballot. An               Planning Minister Miriam Belchoir. "We
private residence. Haitian President René     Organization of American States review         will prioritize those places where experts
Préval said Jan. 22 in the Dominican          found that former first lady Mirlande          say the problems are most serious,"
Republic that Duvalier was within his         Manigat and popular singer Michel              Belchoir said in a statement, the AP
rights to return to Haiti, but added he       "Sweet Micky" Martelly were the top vote-      reported. The government will invest
must now face justice. "If Duvalier is not    getters in the first round and should          $5.9 billion on initiatives to improve
in prison now, it is because he has not yet   advance to the runoff instead of Célestin.     drainage and the remainder on hillside-
been tried," said Préval, the AP reported.    Préval last week was reportedly displeased     stabilization projects. Municipalities that
Préval and Haitian Prime Minister Jean-       by the OAS report but he has not publicly      submit plans for such projects will be eli-
Max Bellerive met for four hours              commented on it.                               gible to receive about half of that fund-

Copyright © 2011, Inter-American Dialogue                                                                                    Page 4 of 6
Inter-American Dialogue’s Financial Services Advisor                                                           January 13-26, 2010



ing, Belchoir added. Every year, Brazil          new controls to stem the flow of weapons       POLITICAL & ECONOMIC BRIEFS
suffers widespread floods and mudslides,         into Mexico as part of its efforts to help
but the disasters that have occurred in          Mexico fight the cartels. The administra-      Cuba Halts Mail Deliveries
the past week could become the worst             tion is committed to "doing what could be      to the United States
natural disaster the country has ever            done" to require U.S. gun dealers near the     Cuba's state postal service
faced. In addition, a new early-warning                                                         announced Jan. 21 that it has sus-
system will use radar and a recently pur-                                                       pended deliveries to the United
chased supercomputer to help authori-                                                           States as a result of security meas-
ties monitor severe weather, providing
                                                                                                ures that have led to the return of
                      authorities     more
                      time to order evacua-
                                                      “ The drug traffickers are                U.S.-bound mail to the island,
                                                    not going to give up without                Agence France-Presse reported.
                      tions if necessary,
                      said
                      Mercadante,
                                    Aloízio
                                         the
                                                         a terrible fight.    ”                 Direct mail service between the two
                                                                                                countries was halted in 1963, but
                                                                          — Hillary Clinton
                      country's science and                                                     talks in 2009 led to deliveries routed
                      technology minister.                                                      through Mexico and Canada. State
                      The government has                                                        Department officials said the United
Mercadente            not yet determined                                                        States has not imposed new restric-
File Photo: Brazilian
                      the system's cost, he      Mexican border to report instances in          tions on Cuban mail and that serv-
Government.           told radio reporters       which buyers purchase several high-pow-        ice interruptions are likely due to
                      in an interview. On        ered rifles, the cartels' weapon of choice.    third country air carriers' inability
Jan. 19, the World Bank said it may fund         Already, Washington has provided Mexico
                                                                                                to transport additional mail.
a project to reform Brazil's civil-defense       hundreds of millions of dollars in sup-
system. In addition, the bank will provide       port, including training and technology,       Guatemala Extends State of Siege
a loan of $485 million to reconstruct            and this year will provide the country an      in Violence-Plagued Province
homes after this month's flooding and            additional half-billion dollars worth of
also relocate people living in areas at risk     equipment and training. Since Mexican          Guatemala will extend a month-
of floods and mudslides. The death toll          President Felipe Calderón launched his         long state of siege that began on
after the floods are expected to reach           offensive against the cartels at the begin-    Dec. 19 in the province of Alta
1,000, said Mercadente, who added 5 mil-         ning of his term in late 2006, more than       Verapaz for an extra month, the
lion people live in at-risk areas.               34,600 people have been killed in drug-        Associated Press reported Jan. 18.
                                                 related violence in Mexico.                    Guatemalan President Álvaro
Clinton Urges Mexico to Keep                                                                    Colom said the efforts have been
Fighting 'Messy' Drug War                        Economic News                                  successful but "more needs to be
                                                                                                done" in the area, which was taken
During a visit to the central Mexican city                                                      over by Mexico's Zetas drug gang in
of Guanajuato, U.S. Secretary of State           Brazil's Central Bank Hikes Key                2008. The siege allows the army to
Hillary Clinton on Jan. 24 urged Mexico's        Interest Rate to 11.25 Percent
                                                                                                conduct searches and detain sus-
government to continue fighting what she
called its "messy" war against drug cartels,     Brazil's central bank on Jan. 19 raised its    pects without warrants, ban gun
the Associated Press reported. "It is messy.     benchmark overnight rate a half point to       possession and control local media.
It causes lots of terrible things to be on the   11.25 percent, beginning a series of rate
                                                                                                Mexico's Central Bank Keeps
news," Clinton said after a meeting with         increases amid rising concerns about           Benchmark Rate at 4.5 Percent
her counterpart, Mexican Foreign                 inflation and a strengthening real,
Minister Patricia Espinosa. Mexico has no        Bloomberg News reported. The bank's            Mexico's central bank on Jan. 21
alternative other than fighting drug traf-       policy committee, led by new central           voted to keep its benchmark interest
fickers head-on, said Clinton. "The drug         bank chief Alexandre Tombini, voted            rate at 4.5 percent, saying that infla-
traffickers are not going to give up with-       unanimously to boost the Selic rate for        tion would continue to slow this
out a terrible fight. And they do things         the first time since July. Inflation grew      year despite an increase in global
that are just barbaric—like beheading            more last month than economists had            commodities prices, Bloomberg
people," she said. "It is meant to intimi-       expected. The year-end inflation rate          News reported. Luis Flores, an econ-
date. It is meant to have the public say,        stood at 5.91 percent, the fastest calen-
                                                                                                omist at Ixe Grupo Financiero, told
'Just leave them alone and they won't            dar-year rate since 2004 when inflation
                                                                                                the news service that the probability
bother me.' But a president cannot do            increased 7.6 percent. The central bank's
that." Clinton also said the administration      target for inflation is 4.5 percent, plus or   of a rate increase will begin to rise
of U.S. President Barack Obama will use          minus two percentage points.                   in six or seven months.

Copyright © 2011, Inter-American Dialogue                                                                                     Page 5 of 6
Inter-American Dialogue’s Financial Services Advisor                                                                          January 13-26, 2010


Featured Q&A                                                                                             Financial Services Advisor
Continued from page 3                                                                                          is published biweekly by the
opposition will find in the referendum              banking sector per se. After years of eco-                   Inter-American Dialogue
                                                                                                                     Copyright © 2011
an opportunity to consolidate them-                 nomic and political turmoil, Ecuador is
selves and that a "No" campaign, sup-               in the midst of an ongoing media war.                               Erik Brand
                                                                                                                General Manager, Publishing
ported by various sectors, will take shape          The private media remains concentrated                        ebrand@thedialogue.org
and backfire against the president. The             in the hands of a limited number of
                                                                                                                        Gene Kuleta
fact that the referendum also includes              powerful conglomerates, some with both                                Editor
other sensible issues, like the reorganiza-         financial sector and media sector inter-                      gkuleta@thedialogue.org
                                                    ests. The conflict is part of an overall bat-
                                                                                                                       Rachel Sadon
                                                    tle between the left-populist government                      Reporter, Assistant Editor
     “ The possible approval of                     and the traditional economic elite.
                                                    President Correa is highly sensitive to
                                                                                                                  rsadon@thedialogue.org

       this referendum could                        media criticism and views the media as
                                                                                                          Inter-American Dialogue
   significantly change Ecuador's                   the primary opposition force. The presi-
                                                    dent is an astute campaigner and will                         Michael Shifter, President
         business climate.                  ”       likely garner enough support to pass the
                                                    referendum. The proposed change is
                                                                                                              Peter Hakim, President Emeritus
                            — César Coronel Jones                                                    Katherine Anderson, V.P., Finance & Administration
                                                    likely to have less of an impact on the
                                                    banking system than the overall eco-                      Genaro Arriagada, Senior Fellow
tion of the judiciary and provisions to             nomic environment and changes that                    Joan Caivano, Director, Special Projects
exert more control over the media, could            have already been forced upon the bank-                   Paul Isbell, Visiting Senior Fellow
provoke a negative reaction and consoli-            ing system in Ecuador. While the finan-                      Claudio Loser, Senior Fellow
date opposition forces against President            cial system has enjoyed steady deposit
                                                                                                                 Nora Lustig, Senior Fellow
Correa. As for the possibility of prohibit-         and credit growth during the past sever-
ing banks, their main shareholders and              al years, we expect the pace of growth to                        Aurea Molto, Fellow
directors from controlling different busi-          slow significantly in 2011-12 as a result              Manuel Orozco, Director, Remittances
nesses, the impact could be very signifi-           of general uncertainty about economic                      and Development Program
cant. Many groups have assets in stocks             policy, as well as policies that are specifi-            Tamara Ortega Goodspeed, Senior
that allow them to control or have signif-          cally detrimental to the banking system.                      Associate, Education
icant presence in banks and this new law            In 2007, the government passed a law                    Marifeli Pérez-Stable, Senior Fellow
will force them to sell their stock in              aimed at lowering costs in the banking              Jeffrey Puryear, Vice President, Social Policy
banks. Likewise, many important banks               system by establishing maximum inter-                         Viron Vaky, Senior Fellow
and their shareholders or directors con-            est rates and eliminating commissions.
trol commercial, industrial and agricul-            In 2010, the government's interventions
tural enterprises and this new law will             included a new requirement that banks           The Inter-American Dialogue's Financial
force them to get rid of those businesses           bring onshore liquid assets that they           Services Advisor is published biweekly, with
or resign their bank positions. In sum,             hold abroad. The banking system suffers         the exception of major holidays, from
the possible approval of this referendum            from a poor payment culture. The diffi-         1211 Connecticut Avenue, Suite 510
could significantly change Ecuador's                culty in recovering loans and collateral        Washington, DC 20036
                                                                                                    Phone: 202-822-9002 Fax: 202-822-9553
business climate. Bankers will have to              leads banks to roll over problem loans          www.thedialogue.org
concentrate their investments in that               rather than fully provision for them,
sector and won't be allowed to invest in            which raises costs for banks. An extra          Subscription Inquiries are welcomed at
other economic sectors. This could                  burden for private banks is that                freetrial@thedialogue.org
encourage them to invest in foreign                 President Correa has actively sought to
                                                                                                    The opinions expressed by the members of the Board
countries. Also, many nonfinancial com-             expand the role of public sector banks in       of Advisors and by guest commentators do not nec-
panies won't be able to associate with              Ecuador. Historically debtors have selec-       essarily represent those of the publisher. The analysis
banks in order to obtain investment."               tively chosen to repay loans to private—        is the sole view of each Advisor and does not neces-
                                                    not public—banks. This could signal             sarily represent the views of their respective employ-
         Richard Francis, director of                                                               ers or firms. The information in this report has been



A
                                                    problems for Ecuador down the road."
                                                                                                    obtained from reliable sources, but neither its accu-
         sovereign ratings at Standard                                                              racy and completeness, nor the opinions based there-
         and Poor's in New York: "The                                                               on, are guaranteed. If you have any questions relating
         real aim of the proposed                   The Advisor welcomes reactions to the           to the contents of this publication, contact the edito-
change deals more with the long-stand-              Q&A above. Readers can write editor             rial offices of the Inter-American Dialogue. Contents
ing struggle between President Correa               Gene Kuleta at gkuleta@thedialogue.org          of this report may not be reproduced, stored in a
                                                                                                    retrieval system, or transmitted without prior written
and the national media and less with the            with comments.                                  permission from the publisher.

Copyright © 2011, Inter-American Dialogue                                                                                                       Page 6 of 6

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Inter-American Dialogues

  • 1. www.thedialogue.org January 13-26, 2011 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A Luis Anavitarte Franco Moccia VP & Research Consultant How Would Ecuador's Banking Referendum Affect the Economy? Director, Gartner Inc. A constitutional referendum Q Edward L. business groups? Also, it would seem Ernesto Armenteros Monahan Jr. planned in Ecuador would ask financial institutions would be banned Vice President, Strategy Advisor citizens whether to limit banks from investing in stocks. Would insurers Banco de Ahorro y to providing financial services also be banned from investing in stocks? Crédito Unión S.A. Thomas Morante Partner, only. Business interests outside the finan- Banning bank managers from holding Holland & Knight, LLP cial sector could lead to conflicts of inter- stock would mean that bankers would Richard Child Founder, est, said the office of President Rafael essentially have to invest their equity over- Manuel Orozco Correa. How would barring banks from seas. A similar ban on bank directors Mattrix Group Director, Remittances & Development holdings outside of the financial services would mean the end of functioning bank Jeanne Del Casino Program, Inter- industry affect Ecuador's economy? boards, since it makes little sense to have VP & Regional Credit American Dialogue Which companies would be most affect- board members that have no link whatso- Officer, Latin American Banks, Moody's ed, and how would it affect consumers? ever to the private economy. Consumers Adalberto Palma- Investors Service Gomez What are the chances for the referen- would not be directly affected, but some Senior Partner, dum's passage? business groups would have to divest Michael Diaz Jr. APERTURE S.C. Continued on page 3 Partner, Walter Spurrier, president of A Diaz, Reus & Targ, LLP Yoshihiro Sakai Executive VP, Grupo Spurrier and director of Ernesto Fernández Microfinance Weekly Analysis in Guayaquil, Holmann International Corp. Ecuador: "If the question is Chairman of the included in the referendum in its present Board, Ayucus Jan Smith form (the referendum is still at a prelimi- Former Managing Tom Haider Director, nary stage), quite likely it would be Consultant Kroll, Inc. approved, as bankers are not popular and the president is. But the Constitutional Earl Jarrett Roberto Teixeira Court could object that it curtails the General Manager, da Costa Board Member, rights of citizens—in this case, those of Jamaica National Building Society SulAmérica S/A bankers and bank directors—and that in Bradesco, Citibank Reportedly itself is unconstitutional. The devil is in the Interested in PanAmericano Thomas J. details. There are restrictions now on Mackell Jr. investments in nonfinancial businesses by Brazil's Banco Bradesco and U.S.- Chairman, banks. But many banks own insurance based Citigroup are reportedly interest- United Benefits and Pension Services Inc. companies. Would these investments be ed in buying Banco PanAmericano, Subscribers may pose questions to the allowed, and thus, insurance be considered which is controlled by billionaire Silvio Board of Advisors for the Featured Q&A by part of the financial business? In which Santos. See story on page 2. contacting Editor Gene Kuleta at: case, will insurance companies be barred gkuleta@thedialogue.org Masthead- File Photo: Brazilian Government. -End from having linkages with nonfinancial Inside This Issue FEATURED Q&A: How Would Ecuador's Jamaican Lower House Approves Inflation, Peso Shortage Drive Banking Referendum Affect the Economy?.......1 Wider Protections for Depositors........................2 Up Argentine Credit Card Debt ............................3 Bradesco, Citibank Express Interest Mexico's Gruma to Sell Most Subscriber Notice: Yoshihiro Sakai Joins in Buying Banco PanAmericano..........................2 of Stake in Banorte ................................................2 Financial Services Advisor Board .......................4 Santander Chile Planning to Chile's CorpBanca Reports Political and Economic News: Increase Loans to $5.5 Billion ..............................2 38.7% Increase in Profit for 2010 .........................3 Haiti, Brazil, Cuba and More.............................4-5 Copyright © 2011, Inter-American Dialogue Page 1 of 6
  • 2. Inter-American Dialogue’s Financial Services Advisor January 13-26, 2010 FINANCIAL SERVICES BRIEFS Financial Services News Mexico's Gruma to Sell Most of Stake in Banorte Bradesco, Citibank Express Interest told El Mercurio in an interview published Mexico's Gruma said Jan. 21 that it in Buying Banco PanAmericano Jan. 22. An increase of that size would is planning to sell most of its stake amount to a 17 percent increase from Brazil's Banco Bradesco and U.S.-based 2010. The bank is seeking to boost loans in Grupo Financiero Banorte Citigroup have expressed interest in buy- to $18 billion within three years and the through a secondary offering, Dow ing Banco PanAmericano, Brazilian increase would come mainly from financ- Jones reported. Gruma, a maker of newspaper Folha de São Paulo reported ing to medium and small enterprises and corn flour and tortillas, has an 8.8 Jan. 22. However, Silvio Santos, who con- individuals, Mauricio Larraín told the percent stake in the banking group. trols the Brazil-based bank that received Santiago-based newspaper. The bank In a filing with Mexico's stock an emergency injection of capital last year, wants to add 80,000 new customers and exchange, Gruma said its global open 20 new branches to add to the more offering of as many as 156 million than 400 currently operating in the coun- shares of Banorte will be made try, said Larraín. After the global financial PanAmericano received an crisis, Santander Chile became the through a public offering in Mexico and a private offering in the United emergency capital injection of Spanish bank's fourth largest operation, States and other foreign countries. after Brazil, Spain and Britain. The approximately $1.5 billion Chilean unit contributed 8 percent of BofA Merrill Lynch Names Rosen in November. Santander's total profits. Santander To Investment Banking Post Chile's growth will be funded through the bank's profits and bond sales in Chile, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch became reluctant to sell PanAmericano United States, Europe and Asia, said announced Jan. 12 that it has named when negotiations began looking into a Larraín. Mark Rosen as its head of Latin possible selling price for the bank, the American investment banking. newspaper reported. Officials from Jamaican Lower House Approves Based in New York, Rosen will be Bradesco, Citibank and PanAmericano Wider Protections for Depositors responsible for the company's refused to publicly comment for the investment banking franchise for the report, which cited unnamed executives Jamaica's House of Representatives has entire region except for Brazil. who are part of the discussions. Santos' approved a package of wider protections Before joining Bank of America holding group, Grupo Silvio Santos on for depositors under the country's Merrill Lynch, Rosen worked at Nov. 9 borrowed approximately 2.5 billion Deposit Insurance Act, the Jamaica Credit Suisse for 12 years as head of reais ($1.5 billion) from Brazil's Deposit Gleaner reported Jan. 21. The changes, Insurance Fund, a nongovernmental which still must pass the Senate to take Latin American and Caribbean banking guarantor, after the country's effect, affect depositors with trust financial institutions investment central bank discovered accounting prob- accounts and in instances where financial banking. Before that he was head of lems in PanAmericano's books. institutions merge. Now, the Jamaica Latin American M&A at Barclays. PanAmericano's controlling shareholders, Deposit Insurance Corporation, or JDIC, which include Brazil-based Caixa will be able to make direct payments to Allpoint Network Adds More Than 2,500 ATMs in Mexico Econômica Federal, have previously said depositors who have accounts in dis- PanAmericano is not for sale, Reuters tressed banks and other financial institu- U.S.-based interbank network reported. Nevertheless, speculation has tions when the Allpoint said Jan. 18 that it has continued about a possible acquisition of accounts are part of a added 2,500 automated teller the bank. Brazilian lender Banco BMG, trust. Previously, the machines in Mexico in locations which specializes in loans to consumers, is corporation was lim- including OXXO convenience stores. also reportedly interested in taking over ited to making one The machines are owned by PanAmericano. payment of as much Cardtronics, the world's largest non- as 600,000 Jamaican bank owner of ATMs, said Bethesda, Santander Chile Planning to dollars ($7,080) for Increase Loans to $5.5 Billion each trust account. McKain Md.-based Allpoint. The company The changes give each File Photo: JDIC. already has ATMs in the United The Chilean unit of Banco Santander is individual depositor States, Britain and Australia and says planning to increase loans to $5.5 billion in the trust protection for that amount. it operates the world's largest sur- this year as it works to attract more clients "Now we can recognize each beneficiary, charge-free ATM network. to the bank, Santander Chile's president rather than just the trustee," said the Copyright © 2011, Inter-American Dialogue Page 2 of 6
  • 3. Inter-American Dialogue’s Financial Services Advisor January 13-26, 2010 JDIC's chief executive offer, Antoinette Featured Q&A McKain. In addition, the changes also Continued from page 1 allow depositors to make separate claims themselves from holdings –either finan- too. The mandatory divesture of finan- if they have accounts in two or more cial or nonfinancial, according to their cial assets would severely damage local institutions that are forced to merge preference. Much would also depend on investment in small markets like under distressed circumstances. how the constitutional mandate would Ecuador. Financial regulation is a techni- Claimants must file for compensation be regulated through laws, and the latter cal issue that should not be decided by within two years of any mergers. "We have through regulations." referendums. The solvency risk to avoid been trying to get these changes in place Franco Moccia, member of the A for a long time now," said McKain. Financial Services Advisor Chile's CorpBanca Reports 38.7% board, consultant and former Increase in Profit for 2010 president of Citibank Ecuador: "Technical and regulatory matters, such “ Financial regulation is a technical issue that should not be Chilean bank CorpBanca, the country's as financial regulations, are unlikely to be fifth largest in terms of loans, said Jan. 14 in a preliminary earnings report it a had effective if they are set by national refer- endums. Would other financial regula- decided through referendums. ” — Franco Moccia net income of $241.5 million for the year tion matters such as mandatory cash 2010, a 38.7 percent increase from the requirements, net worth needs etc. be previous year, Dow Jones reported. discussed at a national level and decided Earlier this month, CorpBanca said it will via referendums too? Efficient capital use a planned $750 million capital markets have independent financial channeling deposit money to companies increase to boost lending to large Chilean authorities with technical skills to deal related to banks' owners is effectively corporations, Bloomberg News reported. with these issues. Almost everywhere an regulated by tools different than pro- Banco do Brasil is in negotiations with interest rate cap would be approved by a hibiting financial institutions owners to CorpBanca over the investment. referendum creating the severe market have assets in other industries. The distortion in a competitive financial Ecuadorean government initiative looks Credit Card News market. Financial regulation to avoid lending to related parties is standard in like a political battle against specific financial institutions rather than a regu- financial markets and is designed to latory matter and, if approved, will nega- Inflation, Peso Shortage Drive Up avoid solvency problems. The risk is mit- tively impact local and foreign direct Argentine Credit Card Debt igated by setting a very small percentage investment." of the bank net worth to be lent to 'relat- César Coronel Jones, founding A Accelerating inflation and a shortage of ed parties' vis-à-vis a bigger percentage pesos in Argentina is driving Argentines' allowed for unrelated borrowers. The partner at Coronel & Pérez in credit card debt to record levels as con- related parties' definition goes from per- Guayaquil, Ecuador: "At the sumers meet difficulties finding cash to centage of direct and indirect ownership moment, President Correa's purchase goods, Bloomberg News report- to financial supervisor opinion. Small referendum has high possibilities of been ed Jan. 24. In December, Argentines capital markets usually have local con- approved due to the president's high charged 26 billion pesos ($6.6 billion) on glomerates with portfolios diversified in popularity and the significant political different industries and usually have capital that is invested in the referen- financial institutions in their portfolios dum. However, there is a risk that the Continued on page 6 Private economists believe Argentina's annual the United States, which stands at 14 per- high as 27 percent. "It makes sense to use rate of inflation is as cent. Soaring consumer prices are push- credit cards because, first, you don't have ing down the savings rate in Argentina, the cash but, on top of that, real rates are high as 27 percent. where borrowers are wary of banks in the so negative, and sometimes there are pro- wake of the government's $95 billion debt motions where you pay for purchases default a decade ago, Daniel Volberg, an over 12 months," Boris Segura, an econo- credit cards, a 49 percent increase from economist at Morgan Stanley in New mist at Nomura Securities International the same month a year earlier, according York, told Bloomberg News. The govern- in New York, told the news service. to the central bank. Argentine credit cards ment said annual inflation totaled 10.9 Climbing prices for food and commodi- carry an average interest rate of 30.5 per- percent last year, but private economists ties, along with the U.S. Federal Reserve's cent, more than twice the average rate in believe the actual rate of inflation is as printing of dollars to spur the U.S. econo- Copyright © 2011, Inter-American Dialogue Page 3 of 6
  • 4. Inter-American Dialogue’s Financial Services Advisor January 13-26, 2010 my are stoking inflation concerns around the world. Subscriber Notice Political News Yoshihiro Sakai Joins Financial Services Advisor Board The Financial Services Advisor is pleased to announce that Yoshihiro Sakai, executive Duvalier: Desire to Participate in vice president and chief financial officer of Microfinance International Corp. in Reconstruction Spurred Return Washington has joined the Board of Advisors. Former Haitian dictator Jean-Claude Sakai joined Microfinance International last year after serving as "Baby Doc" Duvalier said Jan. 21 that he senior advisor and senior economist at the Development Bank of returned to Haiti on Jan. 16 so that he Japan, the Japanese government's finance arm. In that position, he could participate in the impoverished was in charge of international business management and focused country's reconstruction after its deadly largely on China. earthquake a year ago, the Associated Press reported. "When I made the deci- Prior to his work at the Development Bank of Japan, Sakai worked sion to come back to Haiti to commemo- as leader of corporate strategy and managing director of Nomura rate this sad anniversary with you, in our Sakai Holdings in both New York and Tokyo, where he designed country, I was ready for any kind of per- File Photo: MFI. Nomura's global management structure and global strategy. secution," Duvalier, 59, told reporters in Port-au-Prince. "But I believe that the Before that, Sakai worked for 15 years at the Bank of Japan, the country's central bank, desire to participate by your side in this in several management, operational and executive positions. Sakai directed and was collaboration for the national reconstruc- involved in negotiations with foreign monetary authorities on behalf of the central tion far outweighs any harassment I could bank. He also was manager of the bank's Financial and Payment System Office and face." A Haitian court is currently weigh- senior examiner in the Banking Supervision Division and an officer of market opera- ing whether Duvalier should be tried on tion in the Credit and Market Management Department. In addition, Sakai has been a fellow of the American Enterprise Institute and an adjunct fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He earned a mas- ter of business administration from the Stern School of Business at New York University and a master's degree in criminal justice from Boston University. Saturday with Dominican President Brazil to Create Nationwide Leonel Fernández to discuss Haiti's Disaster Prevention System cholera epidemic and political crisis. The Duvalier country's political future remains in In the wake of floods and mudslides that File Photo: Le Nouvelliste. question after the inconclusive first- are confirmed to have killed more than round presidential election Nov. 28. A 800 people in areas north of Rio de charges including corruption, embezzle- runoff that had been scheduled for Jan. 16 Janeiro, Brazil will create a new disaster- ment and torture. The charges stem from was postponed and has not been resched- prevention system, officials said Jan. 20, his 1971-1986 rule, which ended with his uled. On Jan. 21, the U.S. State the Associated Press reported. In addi- flying into exile following a popular Department revoked the visas of about a tion, the country's government will revolt. He has spent most of the past 25 dozen Haitian government officials in an spend $6.7 billion through 2014 on years in France. Since his return to Haiti, effort to pressure the government to drop drainage and other similar projects in an Duvalier has largely remained holed up in its preferred candidate, Jude Célestin, attempt to prevent future flooding, said a Port-au-Prince luxury hotel and in a from the presidential ballot. An Planning Minister Miriam Belchoir. "We private residence. Haitian President René Organization of American States review will prioritize those places where experts Préval said Jan. 22 in the Dominican found that former first lady Mirlande say the problems are most serious," Republic that Duvalier was within his Manigat and popular singer Michel Belchoir said in a statement, the AP rights to return to Haiti, but added he "Sweet Micky" Martelly were the top vote- reported. The government will invest must now face justice. "If Duvalier is not getters in the first round and should $5.9 billion on initiatives to improve in prison now, it is because he has not yet advance to the runoff instead of Célestin. drainage and the remainder on hillside- been tried," said Préval, the AP reported. Préval last week was reportedly displeased stabilization projects. Municipalities that Préval and Haitian Prime Minister Jean- by the OAS report but he has not publicly submit plans for such projects will be eli- Max Bellerive met for four hours commented on it. gible to receive about half of that fund- Copyright © 2011, Inter-American Dialogue Page 4 of 6
  • 5. Inter-American Dialogue’s Financial Services Advisor January 13-26, 2010 ing, Belchoir added. Every year, Brazil new controls to stem the flow of weapons POLITICAL & ECONOMIC BRIEFS suffers widespread floods and mudslides, into Mexico as part of its efforts to help but the disasters that have occurred in Mexico fight the cartels. The administra- Cuba Halts Mail Deliveries the past week could become the worst tion is committed to "doing what could be to the United States natural disaster the country has ever done" to require U.S. gun dealers near the Cuba's state postal service faced. In addition, a new early-warning announced Jan. 21 that it has sus- system will use radar and a recently pur- pended deliveries to the United chased supercomputer to help authori- States as a result of security meas- ties monitor severe weather, providing ures that have led to the return of authorities more time to order evacua- “ The drug traffickers are U.S.-bound mail to the island, not going to give up without Agence France-Presse reported. tions if necessary, said Mercadante, Aloízio the a terrible fight. ” Direct mail service between the two countries was halted in 1963, but — Hillary Clinton country's science and talks in 2009 led to deliveries routed technology minister. through Mexico and Canada. State The government has Department officials said the United Mercadente not yet determined States has not imposed new restric- File Photo: Brazilian the system's cost, he Mexican border to report instances in tions on Cuban mail and that serv- Government. told radio reporters which buyers purchase several high-pow- ice interruptions are likely due to in an interview. On ered rifles, the cartels' weapon of choice. third country air carriers' inability Jan. 19, the World Bank said it may fund Already, Washington has provided Mexico to transport additional mail. a project to reform Brazil's civil-defense hundreds of millions of dollars in sup- system. In addition, the bank will provide port, including training and technology, Guatemala Extends State of Siege a loan of $485 million to reconstruct and this year will provide the country an in Violence-Plagued Province homes after this month's flooding and additional half-billion dollars worth of also relocate people living in areas at risk equipment and training. Since Mexican Guatemala will extend a month- of floods and mudslides. The death toll President Felipe Calderón launched his long state of siege that began on after the floods are expected to reach offensive against the cartels at the begin- Dec. 19 in the province of Alta 1,000, said Mercadente, who added 5 mil- ning of his term in late 2006, more than Verapaz for an extra month, the lion people live in at-risk areas. 34,600 people have been killed in drug- Associated Press reported Jan. 18. related violence in Mexico. Guatemalan President Álvaro Clinton Urges Mexico to Keep Colom said the efforts have been Fighting 'Messy' Drug War Economic News successful but "more needs to be done" in the area, which was taken During a visit to the central Mexican city over by Mexico's Zetas drug gang in of Guanajuato, U.S. Secretary of State Brazil's Central Bank Hikes Key 2008. The siege allows the army to Hillary Clinton on Jan. 24 urged Mexico's Interest Rate to 11.25 Percent conduct searches and detain sus- government to continue fighting what she called its "messy" war against drug cartels, Brazil's central bank on Jan. 19 raised its pects without warrants, ban gun the Associated Press reported. "It is messy. benchmark overnight rate a half point to possession and control local media. It causes lots of terrible things to be on the 11.25 percent, beginning a series of rate Mexico's Central Bank Keeps news," Clinton said after a meeting with increases amid rising concerns about Benchmark Rate at 4.5 Percent her counterpart, Mexican Foreign inflation and a strengthening real, Minister Patricia Espinosa. Mexico has no Bloomberg News reported. The bank's Mexico's central bank on Jan. 21 alternative other than fighting drug traf- policy committee, led by new central voted to keep its benchmark interest fickers head-on, said Clinton. "The drug bank chief Alexandre Tombini, voted rate at 4.5 percent, saying that infla- traffickers are not going to give up with- unanimously to boost the Selic rate for tion would continue to slow this out a terrible fight. And they do things the first time since July. Inflation grew year despite an increase in global that are just barbaric—like beheading more last month than economists had commodities prices, Bloomberg people," she said. "It is meant to intimi- expected. The year-end inflation rate News reported. Luis Flores, an econ- date. It is meant to have the public say, stood at 5.91 percent, the fastest calen- omist at Ixe Grupo Financiero, told 'Just leave them alone and they won't dar-year rate since 2004 when inflation the news service that the probability bother me.' But a president cannot do increased 7.6 percent. The central bank's that." Clinton also said the administration target for inflation is 4.5 percent, plus or of a rate increase will begin to rise of U.S. President Barack Obama will use minus two percentage points. in six or seven months. Copyright © 2011, Inter-American Dialogue Page 5 of 6
  • 6. Inter-American Dialogue’s Financial Services Advisor January 13-26, 2010 Featured Q&A Financial Services Advisor Continued from page 3 is published biweekly by the opposition will find in the referendum banking sector per se. After years of eco- Inter-American Dialogue Copyright © 2011 an opportunity to consolidate them- nomic and political turmoil, Ecuador is selves and that a "No" campaign, sup- in the midst of an ongoing media war. Erik Brand General Manager, Publishing ported by various sectors, will take shape The private media remains concentrated ebrand@thedialogue.org and backfire against the president. The in the hands of a limited number of Gene Kuleta fact that the referendum also includes powerful conglomerates, some with both Editor other sensible issues, like the reorganiza- financial sector and media sector inter- gkuleta@thedialogue.org ests. The conflict is part of an overall bat- Rachel Sadon tle between the left-populist government Reporter, Assistant Editor “ The possible approval of and the traditional economic elite. President Correa is highly sensitive to rsadon@thedialogue.org this referendum could media criticism and views the media as Inter-American Dialogue significantly change Ecuador's the primary opposition force. The presi- dent is an astute campaigner and will Michael Shifter, President business climate. ” likely garner enough support to pass the referendum. The proposed change is Peter Hakim, President Emeritus — César Coronel Jones Katherine Anderson, V.P., Finance & Administration likely to have less of an impact on the banking system than the overall eco- Genaro Arriagada, Senior Fellow tion of the judiciary and provisions to nomic environment and changes that Joan Caivano, Director, Special Projects exert more control over the media, could have already been forced upon the bank- Paul Isbell, Visiting Senior Fellow provoke a negative reaction and consoli- ing system in Ecuador. While the finan- Claudio Loser, Senior Fellow date opposition forces against President cial system has enjoyed steady deposit Nora Lustig, Senior Fellow Correa. As for the possibility of prohibit- and credit growth during the past sever- ing banks, their main shareholders and al years, we expect the pace of growth to Aurea Molto, Fellow directors from controlling different busi- slow significantly in 2011-12 as a result Manuel Orozco, Director, Remittances nesses, the impact could be very signifi- of general uncertainty about economic and Development Program cant. Many groups have assets in stocks policy, as well as policies that are specifi- Tamara Ortega Goodspeed, Senior that allow them to control or have signif- cally detrimental to the banking system. Associate, Education icant presence in banks and this new law In 2007, the government passed a law Marifeli Pérez-Stable, Senior Fellow will force them to sell their stock in aimed at lowering costs in the banking Jeffrey Puryear, Vice President, Social Policy banks. Likewise, many important banks system by establishing maximum inter- Viron Vaky, Senior Fellow and their shareholders or directors con- est rates and eliminating commissions. trol commercial, industrial and agricul- In 2010, the government's interventions tural enterprises and this new law will included a new requirement that banks The Inter-American Dialogue's Financial force them to get rid of those businesses bring onshore liquid assets that they Services Advisor is published biweekly, with or resign their bank positions. In sum, hold abroad. The banking system suffers the exception of major holidays, from the possible approval of this referendum from a poor payment culture. The diffi- 1211 Connecticut Avenue, Suite 510 could significantly change Ecuador's culty in recovering loans and collateral Washington, DC 20036 Phone: 202-822-9002 Fax: 202-822-9553 business climate. Bankers will have to leads banks to roll over problem loans www.thedialogue.org concentrate their investments in that rather than fully provision for them, sector and won't be allowed to invest in which raises costs for banks. An extra Subscription Inquiries are welcomed at other economic sectors. This could burden for private banks is that freetrial@thedialogue.org encourage them to invest in foreign President Correa has actively sought to The opinions expressed by the members of the Board countries. Also, many nonfinancial com- expand the role of public sector banks in of Advisors and by guest commentators do not nec- panies won't be able to associate with Ecuador. Historically debtors have selec- essarily represent those of the publisher. The analysis banks in order to obtain investment." tively chosen to repay loans to private— is the sole view of each Advisor and does not neces- not public—banks. This could signal sarily represent the views of their respective employ- Richard Francis, director of ers or firms. The information in this report has been A problems for Ecuador down the road." obtained from reliable sources, but neither its accu- sovereign ratings at Standard racy and completeness, nor the opinions based there- and Poor's in New York: "The on, are guaranteed. If you have any questions relating real aim of the proposed The Advisor welcomes reactions to the to the contents of this publication, contact the edito- change deals more with the long-stand- Q&A above. Readers can write editor rial offices of the Inter-American Dialogue. Contents ing struggle between President Correa Gene Kuleta at gkuleta@thedialogue.org of this report may not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted without prior written and the national media and less with the with comments. permission from the publisher. Copyright © 2011, Inter-American Dialogue Page 6 of 6