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2013
Unsustainability and Transition

   A Presentation by John Mauldin



    Author of ENDGAME and Editor of




          www.JohnMauldin.com
                                      www.JohnMauldin.com
Unsustainability

 If something cannot be
sustained, it will change.



                  www.JohnMauldin.com
What is Unsustainable?

 A world in which
   expenses rise
faster than income

                www.JohnMauldin.com
It’s the End of the World
As We Know It, and I Feel Fine
   No, Better Than Fine—
      I Am Excited!

                    www.JohnMauldin.com
1
          Debt
The End of the Developed
 World Debt Supercycle

                 www.JohnMauldin.com
2
  Unbalanced Entitlement
          Promises,
Primarily Pension and Health
            Care
   (Think Demographics!)
                    www.JohnMauldin.com
The World and Especially Progress is
              NOT Linear


   What is NOT Unsustainable
Food, Energy, Technological Change, Human
              Adaptation and
    Most Importantly Growth


                           www.JohnMauldin.com
Where are the
Current Sources of Unsustainability?
              1. Japan
             2. Europe
             3. The US
          4. Maybe China




                         www.JohnMauldin.com
Japan: A Bug In Search of a Windshield



                  Ja




                          www.JohnMauldin.com
Public Debt/GDP Projections




SOURCE: Bank of International Settlements



                                            www.JohnMauldin.com
France is the New Greece




SOURCE: Bank of International Settlements




                                            www.JohnMauldin.com
A Thought About Austerity

Of Course it Doesn’t “Work”




                     www.JohnMauldin.com
One Bubble to Rule Them All




                    www.JohnMauldin.com
The Great Experiment

     Keynes
        VS
    von Mises
        VS
      Fisher
        VS
    Friedman

                 www.JohnMauldin.com
Enter the New Economic Paradigm
   The World of Schumpeter and Minsky
Stability, Instability and Creative Destruction

             Joseph Schumpeter



         and Hyman Minsky


                               www.JohnMauldin.com
4
The Millennium Wave:
A World of Accelerating
Change and Abundance

                 www.JohnMauldin.com
2013
 The Transition to Sustainability
       Investment Theme:
Avoid What is Negatively Affected
    by the Unsustainable and
   Choose What Is Sustainable




                        www.JohnMauldin.com
What is The Characteristics
           of Sustainable?
1. It Serves Basic Human Needs
       -Food, Clothing, Housing, Social Networks!?!?
2. It is Adaptable and Antifragile
      -Technology, Communications
3. It Creates Ever Increasing Abundance at
   Lower Costs
      - Biotechnology, Robotics, Nanotechnology, Etc.

                                     www.JohnMauldin.com
For more information visit JohnMauldin.com




                              www.JohnMauldin.com

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Mauldin unsustainability wcc

  • 1. 2013 Unsustainability and Transition A Presentation by John Mauldin Author of ENDGAME and Editor of www.JohnMauldin.com www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 2. Unsustainability If something cannot be sustained, it will change. www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 3. What is Unsustainable? A world in which expenses rise faster than income www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 4. It’s the End of the World As We Know It, and I Feel Fine No, Better Than Fine— I Am Excited! www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 5. 1 Debt The End of the Developed World Debt Supercycle www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 6. 2 Unbalanced Entitlement Promises, Primarily Pension and Health Care (Think Demographics!) www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 7. The World and Especially Progress is NOT Linear What is NOT Unsustainable Food, Energy, Technological Change, Human Adaptation and Most Importantly Growth www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 8. Where are the Current Sources of Unsustainability? 1. Japan 2. Europe 3. The US 4. Maybe China www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 9. Japan: A Bug In Search of a Windshield Ja www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 10. Public Debt/GDP Projections SOURCE: Bank of International Settlements www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 11. France is the New Greece SOURCE: Bank of International Settlements www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 12. A Thought About Austerity Of Course it Doesn’t “Work” www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 13. One Bubble to Rule Them All www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 14. The Great Experiment Keynes VS von Mises VS Fisher VS Friedman www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 15. Enter the New Economic Paradigm The World of Schumpeter and Minsky Stability, Instability and Creative Destruction Joseph Schumpeter and Hyman Minsky www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 16. 4 The Millennium Wave: A World of Accelerating Change and Abundance www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 17. 2013 The Transition to Sustainability Investment Theme: Avoid What is Negatively Affected by the Unsustainable and Choose What Is Sustainable www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 18. What is The Characteristics of Sustainable? 1. It Serves Basic Human Needs -Food, Clothing, Housing, Social Networks!?!? 2. It is Adaptable and Antifragile -Technology, Communications 3. It Creates Ever Increasing Abundance at Lower Costs - Biotechnology, Robotics, Nanotechnology, Etc. www.JohnMauldin.com
  • 19. For more information visit JohnMauldin.com www.JohnMauldin.com