Connect, Collaborate, Change

Connect, Collaborate,
Change
Opportunities for Information and Communication Technology
(ICT) to support a new movement for a sustainable society

A discussion paper by Forum for the Future

CONNECT, COLLABORATE, CHANGE

This report is part of O2’s series of sustainability discussions.
Our business ambition is to grow, but not at any cost. We have
an equal responsibility to use our technology and scale to do
more for society and the planet. And we are keen to discuss
the benefits of technology wherever we can.
O2 commissioned Forum for the Future to review and refresh
the current thinking on information and communication
technology (ICT) as an enabler of sustainability and also
highlight the areas of opportunity.
Our intention is to explore the themes raised in this report
with industry peers, customers, suppliers, employees, NGOs,
interest groups, government and other bodies.
We value your views and ideas. Please send comments to:
thinkbig@o2.com

O2 is a leading communications company for consumers and Forum for the Future is a non-profit organisation working
businesses in the UK, with over 22 million mobile customers and globally with business and government to create a sustainable
over 700,000 fixed broadband customers, as at 30 June 2011. future. It aims to transform the critical systems that we all depend
on, such as food, energy and finance, to make them fit for the
Telefónica UK Limited is part of Telefónica Europe plc, a business
challenges of the 21st century. Forum has 15 years’ experience
division of Telefónica S.A. which uses O2 as its commercial brand
inspiring new thinking, building creative partnerships and
in the UK, Ireland, Slovakia, Germany and the Czech Republic,
developing practical innovations to change our world.
and has 57.3 million customers across these markets.
The authors are James Taplin, Hugh Knowles and Sejal Mahida
Think Big is O2’s sustainability programme. It is designed to
at Forum for the Future.
stimulate social and environmental change in partnership with
Forum for the Future is a registered charity and a company limited by guarantee,
employees, customers and other stakeholders. registered in England and Wales.

www.o2.co.uk/thinkbig Registered office: Overseas House, 19-23 Ironmonger Row, London, EC1V 3QN, UK.
Registered charity no. 1040519. Company no. 2959712. VAT registration no. 677 7475 70.

www.forumforthefuture.org

2

CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION 5
The challenge 5
Opportunity and risk 6

THE CARBON CONTEXT 7

REVIEWING THE RESEARCH 8
a) By type of impact 8
b) By area of impact 9
c) By sector of impact 9

GETTING BACK TO BASICS: 11
A NEW ICT FRAMEWORK

Direct impacts 12
Indirect impacts 12
Systemic effects 13

APPLYING THE FRAMEWORK 14

NEW OPPORTUNITIES 15

MAKING THE CASE FOR 16
SYSTEMIC CHANGE
Redefining ownership 16
Rethinking finance 17
The data revolution and 19
radical transparency

CONCLUSIONS 21

APPENDIX 22

3


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Our lifestyles today are ultimately unsustainable. Only through a radical shift
in how people’s needs are met across the planet can we hope to confront
the great challenges of our time such as: climate change; poverty; population
growth; and food and energy security.

Opportunities for information and communication technology (ICT) to promote intrinsic
change are many and diverse, but we need to know how and where to look for them.

Research thinking to date naturally tends to look at how ICT can help people do existing
things more efficiently, especially in large organisations and institutions. As a result, in
our view, insufficient focus has been placed on the power of ICT to:

• enable individuals to do things completely differently;

• harness the ingenuity of the connected millions to create change together;

• encourage systemic shifts in the way society operates.

ICT could be one of the most powerful enablers of transformation we possess, and
companies like O2 have potential to support just the kind of disruptive change needed.

They can do this by:

• providing people with the platforms to connect;

• taking good ideas to a scale that fundamentally alters the way we live.

4

INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION

THE CARBON CONTEXT
TECHNOLOGY has always been a key driver of change. Today’s use of ICT, in
particular, is causing profound shifts in the way we interact, both with each
other, and with the everyday systems that underpin our lives. These include
the mechanisms we use to generate and consume energy, to produce our
food, to enable us to travel, or to provide us with homes. They are the

REVIEWING THE RESEARCH
building blocks of society.

Nowhere has this shift been more keenly felt than in the ubiquitous use of mobile. The roll-out
of mobile networks in sub-Saharan Africa, for example, has had a transformative impact on local
development, and on the ability of people to improve conditions for themselves. Here in the UK,
our ability to be informed in real-time about the world around us – and to pass on comment in

GETTING BACK TO BASICS:
turn – is revolutionising the way we eat, shop, travel and receive services such as healthcare

A NEW ICT FRAMEWORK
and banking.

THE CHALLENGE
Sustainability is the challenge of the 21st century. It’s about living in a way that achieves our goals
and aspirations without affecting the ability of others to meet theirs – now and in the future.

APPLYING THE FRAMEWORK
There’s now little doubt that our western consumer lifestyles are threatening the future. The
combination of climate change, food and energy security and population growth require a radical
shift in how we meet the needs of all across the planet.

For example, to stand a good chance of avoiding 2 degrees of warming and the resulting climate
change, we must dramatically reduce our global carbon emissions. This means that reduction rates
of approximately 9% per year are needed by as soon as 2015.1

NEW OPPORTUNITIES
To meet these challenges we must find radical solutions – and fast.

ICT is already demonstrating that, with more information and connectivity, people can start to
do things differently. And in doing so, it has the power to generate and rapidly spread new ideas
that can positively disrupt the status quo. For example, a recent report by Gartner Group estimates
that the peer-to-peer financial-lending market will reach $5 billion by 2013.2 Rachel Botsman has
estimated that the consumer peer-to-peer rental market will become a $26 billion sector.3 Both of
MAKING THE CASE FOR
SYSTEMIC CHANGE

these trends have been driven by developments in ICT.
CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX

1
Tyndall Centre: www.transitionculture.org/wp-content/uploads/kevin-anderson-2.ppt
2
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1272313
3
What’s Mine is Yours: The rise of collaborative consumption http://www.rachelbotsman.com/book/
5


OPPORTUNITY AND RISK
There are big opportunities to use ICT to create radical new approaches, but the sector
is still developing fast. So, as with all new frontiers, it’s important to be clear about both
the potential and the risks. Technology is not inherently sustainable after all, and its
deployment can incur significant costs in terms of resources, power and social inequality.
It can also create unintended knock-on effects.

However, since this report was primarily commissioned to look into the opportunities
that ICT presents, we will not be discussing the threats in any detail. Many of the direct
impacts such as e-waste, device accumulation or the rebound effect still require
considerable action to address them, but these are well documented elsewhere. Of
greater concern may be the relatively new or emerging issues that are currently less well
documented and which need urgent attention from the ICT industry. Some of these
risks such as net neutrality, over consumption online, privacy, exclusion and access to ICT
as a human right, could cause systemic change and we welcome further discussion on
these topics.

A number of authoritative reports have started to look at the benefits of ICT for
sustainability, as well as the scale of the potential savings that could be made. We have
used some of these as the foundation for our framework and to provide an overview
of current opinion. We have then applied our own thinking in the areas of systems
innovation,4 future trends and weak signals5 to highlight additional impacts and
opportunities.

We hope to establish that ICT can promote real systemic change. Rather than only
looking at how technology can improve transport systems, for example, we want to
explore how it can change the way we live and work, so that transport needs are vastly
reduced or removed altogether.

Thanks to the excellent work that has gone before, we are by no means starting from
scratch. The potential for change is discussed in earlier research.6 We aim to build on
that, by focusing on new and emerging trends that can inspire change on a scale that’s
commensurate with the challenges we face.

4
http://www.forumforthefuture.org/blog/what-system-innovation
5
Refers to new behaviours or emerging technologies that are yet to become mainstream
6
For example, SMART 2020 – published by the Global e-Sustainability Initiative and The Climate Group in 2008: see ‘Transform’ section at:
6 www.smart2020.org/_assets/files/02_Smart2020Report.pdf

INTRODUCTION
THE CARBON CONTEXT

THE CARBON CONTEXT
One of ICT’s most frequently cited sustainability benefits is the role it can
play in cutting the carbon emissions that contribute to climate change.

Switching a physical activity for a digital one offers great scope for removing the need for
carbon-intensive travel, for example. And ICT’s ability to process complex data to help humans,
or machines, make intelligent decisions can further increase efficiency.

But ICT itself is not without negative sustainability impacts. Its use of energy in particular is a
source of concern and questions remain about whether savings across society might be negated
by the carbon cost of ICT’s manufacture and delivery.

There is no definitive answer yet. ICT operators have generally been poor at clearly demonstrating
their full carbon budgets and few, if any, can yet demonstrate that an x% rise in the carbon they

emit results in a y% fall in emissions across society.

A NEW ICT FRAMEWORK
Various reports try to predict ICT’s future carbon balance. Among the most comprehensive is
Smart 2020, published by The Climate Group for the Global e-Sustainability Initiative in 2008.
This calculates that although ICT emissions will grow to 1.43 GtCO2e7 by 2020, the growth will be
offset by society-wide reductions of five times greater (7.8 GtCO2e).

Not everyone agrees with these figures, and some have voiced concerns that the ICT sector is

developing without due regard to its own energy efficiency, thus threatening to become part
of the problem. They argue that the actual future carbon savings will be significantly smaller.
Nevertheless, Smart 2020 is often still considered to be a solid benchmark on this subject, and is
most regularly quoted by the industry itself. In reality, however, any haggling over relative projected
savings is probably futile, given the uncertainties about the future and the assumptions we need
to make to overcome them. In particular, we hope that the application of ICT in entirely new and
unpredictable ways means that future opportunities will far exceed anything that can be estimated

NEW OPPORTUNITIES
and extrapolated from where we are now.

So, while the Smart 2020 findings are as solid and robust as any, future carbon savings will
depend on things that we can easily predict, like the intelligent design and application of
equipment, and on factors we can’t, like the sheer speed and direction of technology change.
Add to that the human element – how people are likely to behave in future – and forecasting
becomes more difficult still. MAKING THE CASE FOR
SYSTEMIC CHANGE

Not surprisingly then, the standard research paradigm frequently remains how ICT can make
existing operations more efficient. In order to provide credible numbers, most reports rightly focus
on the areas of society where predictions are increasingly certain. They look at the potential carbon
savings predominantly from ‘top-down’ business and policy interventions, or machine-to-machine
exchanges. And whilst this approach undoubtedly focuses on areas where big carbon savings need
to be made, the role of peer-to-peer human interaction in shaping the future is far less clear.
CONCLUSIONS

Most studies therefore omit one of the most unpredictable but potentially disruptive trends we see
– the huge opportunities for change that come when exponential numbers of people use ICT to do
things entirely differently, thus causing systemic shifts in how we meet human needs.
APPENDIX

7
Gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents: a measure of the total climate change impact of an operation which takes into account all global
warming impacts from all emissions and converts them into a standard Carbon Dioxide measure. 7


There are almost as many ways to classify the opportunities for ICT as
there are reports on the subject. This makes it understandably difficult for
an organisation to clearly identify how and where ICT can be applied for
maximum sustainability gain.

Most recent reports agree on the broad areas where ICT interventions could do the most good,
but there is no overall consistency within their findings on which to base decision-making: hardly
surprising, given the complexity of the sector, the almost limitless possibilities and the speed at
which ICT is evolving.

Consequently, reports tend to classify ICT and its sustainability potential on a more manageable
subset of indicators, generally using one or more of the following:

a) type of impact (direct or indirect)

b) area of impact (carbon, for example)

c) systems impacts (change that can be achieved within, say, buildings and transport systems, or
through the smart grid and dematerialisation8)

a) BY TYPE OF IMPACT
Some of the earliest reports use a three-pronged framework to describe, in varying terminologies,
the type of impact ICT has on society. Broadly, they are:

• Direct impacts – also known as ‘Making IT’, ‘first order’ or ‘primary effects’. These are the
social and environmental effects that ICT devices and services create during their lifecycle –
including the materials and energy used in production, the impact of use, disposal, and so on.

• Indirect impacts – also known as ‘Using IT’, ‘second order’ or ‘secondary effects’. These are the
effects of applying ICT to other processes (such as to the production of goods or to transport
systems, for example).

• Systemic impacts – also known as ‘Applying IT’, ‘third order’ or ‘tertiary effects’. These refer to
the longer-term adaptation of economic structures and consumer behaviour, made possible by
ICT and its services.

The advantage of this modus operandi is that it covers all technology and can be applied to all
areas of sustainability opportunity (rather than just carbon, for instance). It also gives an
indication of the relative ease of implementation and the magnitude of impact within each type
of ICT activity. In general terms, it gets harder to instigate initiatives when moving from Direct to
Indirect impacts, and onto Systemic actions, but the sustainable impact gained increases
dramatically as you do so.

But the methodology has limitations too. The possibilities for ICT interventions in society are so vast
that researchers find it useful to divide them into manageable chunks. As a result, most analyses
tend to focus only on one impact (usually carbon, or similar), and on some discrete areas of impact
(for example transport, work and energy).

8 8
The move from a physical activity to an electronic alternative

INTRODUCTION
B) BY AREA OF IMPACT C) BY SYSTEMS IMPACTS
The ICT sector is responsible for 2%-3% of global carbon emissions: its direct impact.

THE CARBON CONTEXT
Focusing attention here is vital, because operators have the power to manage their
absolute impact down.

Clearly, though, there are much bigger potential gains to be made if ICT can be used to
significantly reduce the remaining 97%-98%, via the indirect and systemic impact it can
have on society.

It’s on this area – the role of ICT to change the global carbon budget by reducing more
emissions than it produces – that most reports concentrate.

Where studies diverge, however, is in how they try to classify the opportunities. Table 1
(below) looks at seven recent studies, drawn from the ICT business, NGOs and analysts.

Table 1: Classification of ICT sustainability opportunities in a number of recent

A NEW ICT FRAMEWORK
representative reports

Broad categories of impact area
Dematerialisation
Cradle to cradle /

Remote sensing /
Smart buildings
Smart logistics

Smart motors
management

Efficient ICT

Smart cities

monitoring
equipment

Smart Grid

(travel)
waste

Report

Saving the climate at the
speed of light9 X X X

Smart 202010 X X X X X X

Impacts of ICTs on
Energy Efficiency11 X X X X X

NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Carbon Connections12 X X X X X

Reducing GHGs through
intense use of ICT13 X X X X X X

Using ICTs to tackle
Climate Change14 X X X X X X X

MAKING THE CASE FOR
SYSTEMIC CHANGE
Make IT Green15 X X X X X

Our table shows that none of the findings precisely match, so extrapolating a set of
guiding principles to help shape future action is somewhat challenging.16
CONCLUSIONS

9
WWF & ETNO, (2005). Saving the Climate @ the speed of light – First roadmap for reduced CO2 emissions in the EU and beyond ( (http://wwf.
panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/ict/) )
10
The Climate Group on behalf of the Global eSustainability Initiative (2008) Smart2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age
(www.smart2020.org/) )
11
bio Intelligence Service (2008) Impacts of Information and Communication Technologies on Energy Efficiency – final report to the European
Commission DG INFSO ( (www.ifap.ru/library/book373.pdf) )
12
Vodafone & Accenture (2009) Carbon Connections: Quantifying mobile’s role in tackling climate change ( (www.vodafone.com/content/dam/
vodafone/about/sustainability/2011/pdf/carbon_connections.pdf) )
13
IDC (2009) Reducing Greenhouse. IDC (2009) Reducing Greenhouse Gases Through Intense Use of Information and Communication Technology
(http://download.intel.com/pressroom/archive/reference/IDCWP31R.pdf) )
14
International Telecommunication Union (ITU) & Global eSustainability Initiative (2010) Using ICTs to Tackle Climate Change ( (www.itu.int/dms_
APPENDIX

pub/itu-t/oth/4B/01/T4B010000010001PDFE.pdf) )
15
Greenpeace International (2010) Make IT Green: Cloud computing and its contribution to climate change ( (www.greenpeace.org/international/
en/publications/reports/make-it-green-cloud-computing/) )
16
It should be noted, however, that the classifications of opportunity are our own, based on the areas of impact that each report identifies.
It would be possible for other commentators to reclassify them, but the findings would be the same: there is still insufficient commonality
between them to guide action. 9


One commonly identified opportunity is dematerialisation, found in all of the reports in Table 1. But
even here, different prospects are identified by different reports (Table 2).

Table 2: Elements of dematerialisation opportunities in a number of recent
representative reports

Broad categories of impact area within dematerialisation
Videoconferencing/

e-billing / paperless
(incl. digital goods)

Route planning /
(incl. e-taxation)
e-Government

Mobile work /

management
virtualisation

virtual office
telepresence

e-commerce

e-Education
Hardware

e-Health

goods
office
Report

Saving the climate at the
speed of light X X X X X X X

Smart 2020 X X X X X X

Impacts of ICTs on
Energy Efficiency X X X X

Carbon Connections X X X X

Reducing GHGs through
intense use of ICT X X X

Using ICTs to tackle
Climate Change X X X

Make IT Green X X X X X X

The table also reveals that – for simplicity – reports tend to include a mix of technologies
(videoconference, hardware virtualisation); many types of implementation (e-billing, mobile office,
e-commerce, route planning); and several types of sector (e-Government, e-Health, e-Education).
The difficulty for those who want to use ICT for sustainability is the lack of a common approach.

What is needed, we believe, is a simple framework that enables us to more clearly identify future
opportunities and risks, and more readily pinpoint where action is likely to lead to most gain.

10

INTRODUCTION
GETTING BACK TO BASICS: A NEW ICT FRAMEWORK

THE CARBON CONTEXT
To better spot opportunities for ICT, we need to return to basics. In doing
so, it becomes easier to establish where ICT can achieve the biggest
sustainability gains by enabling entire system change (in energy and finance,
for example).

Our framework in diagram 1 (below) attempts this. It charts the essential functions of ICT
equipment and maps the basic uses and applications they support.

Diagram 1

DIRECT
Making – IT ICT Equipment
1st Order

A NEW ICT FRAMEWORK
Primary

INDIRECT
Using – IT Information & Analysis Communicate
2nd Order
Secondary

Data as
Optimise Simplify Educate Connect Collaborate
product

Predict Automate

NEW OPPORTUNITIES
SYSTEMIC
Applying – IT Integrated Systems and New Cultural Norms
3rd Order
Tertiary
MAKING THE CASE FOR
SYSTEMIC CHANGE
CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX

8
ICT may have a role to play in the three remaining fundamental needs – freedom, subsistence and protection – but less clearly than for the
other six. 11


DIRECT IMPACTS
ICT equipment has a direct impact on wider society, stretching from the supply chain to end-of-
life. Impacts include raw materials (sourcing, toxicity, supply chain management); energy (in
manufacturing, logistics and device use); and disposal (recycling and e-waste).

INDIRECT IMPACTS
ICT is, of course, the acronym for Information and Communication Technology. The ‘Technology’
part comes under direct impacts. The ‘Information and Communication’ part forms the two main
uses of ICT (see diagram 1). These are responsible for the indirect impact that ICT has on society
and, in order to distinguish between them, we’ve termed them a) ‘Information and Analysis’, and
b) ‘Communicate’.

a) Information and analysis
This is the area of ICT that has data at its heart.

On the one hand, data can be a product in its own right – a digital substitute for physical goods,
such as music or photographs.

On the other, it can be used for computational analysis, predominantly by machines, and is the
branch of ICT where machine-to-machine (M2M) activities take place. When humans do get
involved they are presented with data on which to act, such as when drivers are presented with
real-time traffic information so as to avoid congestion and make better routing decisions.

Information and analysis is used for two inter-related purposes: a) to simplify complex data and
b) to optimise decision-making by assessing a range of variables in order to predict the best or
most efficient next course of action. The financial industry has been using these ICT skills to
trade more rapidly for decades, and businesses increasingly employ optimising software to look
for efficiencies.

b) Communicate
This category refers to person-to-person (P2P) communication. We’ve split it into three main
areas: education; connection; and collaboration.

Education is essentially the one-way flow of communication. It includes the sharing of
information from many sources to a single recipient (such as an individual gaining expert
knowledge from the internet), or from one source to many recipients (such as e-learning, when
a teacher informs a number of pupils over a wide geography).

Collaboration involves the two-way flow of information and ideas. It is supported by technology,
such as video-conferencing, and can be used to find innovative new ways of doing things, to share
goods and services, and to bring people together around a common cause.

Connect recognises that – aside from aspiring to be educated or involved with others
collaboratively – people always need to keep in touch. A whole raft of human needs is satisfied
by making simple connections. Chilean economist Manfred Max Neef identified nine fundamental
human needs, some of which – like understanding, creation and participation – are met by
education and/or collaboration tools. Others – such as identify, leisure and affection – fall within
our Connect17 category.

17
ICT also has a role to play in the three remaining fundamental needs – freedom, subsistence and protection – but less clearly than for the
12 other six.

INTRODUCTION
SYSTEMIC EFFECTS
Systemic change can occur when technologies are taken to such a scale they transform

THE CARBON CONTEXT
social systems. Bearing this in mind, it may seem a little misleading that our framework
clearly separates systemic effects from indirect impacts, when the two can in reality be
viewed as a continuum. We have opted to make this distinction because not all indirect
impacts can scale-up to create systemic change. Conversely, systemic change can also
occur when a technology facilitates a change that was not its primary purpose.18

We’ve chosen two main types of systemic change: ‘integrated systems’ and ‘new
cultural norms’.

Integrated systems emerge when ICT is applied to one or more sectors of society to
optimise and/or simplify a process. One example is the smart grid of the future, which will
use dynamic technology to predict the actions of users connected to it through transport
and infrastructure systems to deliver more reliable, economic and sustainable electricity.

A NEW ICT FRAMEWORK
New cultural norms occur when a technology or idea has reached such a saturation point
that it fundamentally shifts the way people behave. One example is the music industry,
which has been radically transformed by the consumption and sharing of digital media.
Another is the emergence of collaborative consumption in which the benefits of ‘stuff’
(cars, handbags, drills and so on) are available to the many, without having to be owned
outright by individuals.

Diagram 2 shows the difference between indirect and systemic impacts on our health and
transport systems. It also flags up the enabling potential of technology applications.

Diagram 2
Indirect/2nd Order Systemic/3rd Order
(INCREMENTAL) (BEHAVIOUR CHANGE)

NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Preventative measure
HEALTH Sharing of data in hospitals
e.g. exercise and fitness

Better logistics/more Enabling car sharing or
TRANSPORT efficient engines rural work hubs
MAKING THE CASE FOR
SYSTEMIC CHANGE
CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX

18
Mobile banking is a good example. See the case study to follow. 13


We hope our framework serves as a tool for action as well as a stimulus for fresh
thinking about where interventions can successfully be made.

At a macro level, it can be used to look for interventions that can be made in a specific sector – by
identifying blockages to more sustainable transport, for example. In this way, it can help to answer
questions like: what simplified information do people need to make better transport choices; which public
services need to make these choices more attractive; and how can ICT deliver this in the right way and at
the right time?

Equally, since a lot of transport is undertaken not for the journey’s sake, but to connect, collaborate or
educate, how can ICT better fulfil these needs? Maybe you know the answers to these questions already,
but what about if you apply similar questions to the finance sector, or food, or construction?

Alternatively, at a micro level, an ICT business, device or technology could be placed in the ‘Direct ICT
Equipment’ position at the top of our framework to help people assess their operations and total impacts.
Are they pursuing all potential sustainability avenues, or are there additional directions that they could
take? How and where could they filter the sustainability benefits of their business down to the indirect
levels? Finally, it may also be possible to start at the bottom by identifying a powerful systemic change and
work upwards through the framework to understand what ICT interventions and equipment is needed to
deliver it.

14

INTRODUCTION
NEW OPPORTUNITIES

THE CARBON CONTEXT
Diagram 3: mapping other analyses into our framework

DIRECT
Making – IT ICT Equipment
1st Order
Primary

Efficient ICT e-Waste
Cradle to Cradle
Equipment Management

Information & Analysis Communicate

A NEW ICT FRAMEWORK
INDIRECT
Data as
Using – IT Optimise Simplify Educate Connect Collaborate
product
2nd Order
Secondary

Smart Smart Smart Smart
Dematerialisation
Grid Logistics Cities Buildings

Predict Automate

Remote Sensing
Smart Motors
& Monitoring

NEW OPPORTUNITIES
SYSTEMIC
Applying – IT Integrated Systems and New Cultural Norms
3rd Order
Tertiary

Diagram 3 includes (in red) the general areas of current focus for sustainable ICT. As we
have noted, different assessors use different parameters to describe potential MAKING THE CASE FOR
SYSTEMIC CHANGE

sustainability wins, but our diagram represents their core positions (see Appendix).

For instance, most of the ‘Smart’-suite of potential interventions involve optimising
sustainability performance using multiple data sources (e.g. vehicles for smarter logistics,
or homes and cars for smarter grids). Some smart solutions involve simplifying
information as well, so that humans can more easily interact with systems (such as
smart buildings), but many operate without human control.
CONCLUSIONS

Dematerialisation solutions, on the other hand, are often about creating opportunities
for people (individuals or institutions) to communicate better, either through peer-to-
peer collaboration (virtual meetings), or via education (government-to-people, company-
to-client).

As discussed earlier, while most sustainability initiatives currently sit within indirect impacts,
there is scope for some, or all, to cause systemic change if taken to scale across society.
APPENDIX

15


MAKING THE CASE FOR SYSTEMIC CHANGE
We have selected three areas of activity to demonstrate how technology
applications can change systems for the better. While our choices –
ownership, finance and data – are subjective, they help to highlight
some of the most interesting emerging trends.

REDEFINING OWNERSHIP
It’s no longer necessary for anyone undertaking a DIY project or wanting to do the weekly shop to
physically own their own drill or car. Use of technology to keep track of where things are located
means that, increasingly, we can find the services we need, establish the cost of rental, and hire
them for a period of time at a touch of a button.

Collaborative consumption helps people gain the value of using what they require without the
need to buy it. It also avoids waste of raw materials and the energy used to manufacture products
that would otherwise sit idle for much of their life (for example, legend suggests that the average
drill is used for only 12 minutes in its entire lifetime).

A widespread shift away from individual ownership has profound implications for the consumption
of resources by society. It also presents opportunities for a new, more sustainable relationship
between producers and consumers, based on buying a service (such as entertainment) rather
than a product (such as a TV).

Case studies
Barclays Cycle Hire is a public bicycle sharing scheme, which supports around 12,000 sustainable
journeys a day in London. It uses ICT to operate, and several mobile phone applications have been
developed to inform users about the locations and availability of bikes. It isn’t aimed at making
existing transport options more efficient, but at providing an entirely new transport system.

Neighborgoods9 is a national online platform that uses geo-location tools to enable people to
share a variety of goods, such as garden tools and sewing machines.

For more examples of collaborative consumption, visit http://www.collaborativeconsumption.com/
the-movement/snapshot-of-examples.php

16 9
www.neighborgoods.net

INTRODUCTION
RETHINKING FINANCE
The financial sector’s recent woes can partly be levelled at misuse of ICT. New financial

THE CARBON CONTEXT
practices that divest responsibility away from the individual and onto sophisticated
trading algorithms, or complex derivatives, would not have been possible without the
extraordinary number-crunching powers of ICT. But this is not a flaw pertaining to ICT
itself: the flaw is in its application.

For example, the same rapid calculation capabilities are being used to revolutionise the

way people access money. New services can now help people across the world, especially
the disadvantaged, gain finance that had previously been denied to them.

Microlending is a prime example. The system allows anyone to lend small amounts of
money to others who need it – at beneficial rates to both. With a sophisticated ICT
platform managing the transactions, risks to microlenders are removed and risks to the
system as a whole are minimised. For example, two of the most established platforms –

A NEW ICT FRAMEWORK
Kiva and Zopa – have default rates of 1.1% and 0.8% respectively, considerably lower
than mainstream banking.

Microlending still requires the input of a third party to act as intermediary. But ICT can
enable people to send money to one other directly. mPesa in Kenya has pioneered a
truly systemic revolution in the way people handle money, by allowing individuals to
transfer money from one mobile phone to another. The physical journeys involved in

transferring cash to remote parts of the country are removed. And in many areas, mPesa
serves as a currency in its own right, eliminating the need to carry cash by facilitating
money transfer by mobile at point of purchase. A scheme recently launched through a
collaboration between Moneygram and Movistar Remesas similarly allows the
international transfer of funds that is supported and facilitated by mobile networks.

The ability of ICT to bring people together in peer-to-peer systems that better serve their

NEW OPPORTUNITIES
collective needs is, therefore, compelling – and it is likely to drive many more systemic
changes, we believe.

MAKING THE CASE FOR
SYSTEMIC CHANGE
CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX

17


Case studies
Kickstarter is an online ‘crowdfunding’ platform that uses a threshold pledge system:
only when projects reach their funding target do they receive money. The platform takes
5% of the funds raised. Kickstarter raised US$75 million for over 10,000 projects between
April 200920 and late 2011 and several businesses used the scheme for initial funding.
Similar crowdfunding schemes have since been established, allowing people to invest
small sums at low risk in projects that inspire them, often for no financial return.

Peoplefund.it is similar to Kickstarter, but it focuses on getting sustainable projects
off the ground. Its aim is to become the platform for sustainability experiments.
Launched in November 2011, it had attracted more than £40K in pledges to great ideas
in its first week.

Bank Simple21 is a ‘personal banking alternative from a company that respects you’, built
from scratch using latest mobile phone technology.22 Irritated by bad design and surprise
fees, the founders are working to deliver a new, simpler banking concept that helps
people to manage their money, and to save and spend conveniently at less cost.

20
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter
21
banksimple.com
18 22
http://www.fastcodesign.com/1665303/first-look-at-banksimples-iphone-app

INTRODUCTION
THE DATA REVOLUTION AND RADICAL TRANSPARENCY

There is huge potential to collect, analyse and communicate data in a way that helps to transform

THE CARBON CONTEXT
critical systems, we believe. Our understanding of climate change, for example, has largely been
shaped by ICT’s analysis of complex data on a global scale.

More and more people are gaining access to a whole raft of information concerning their everyday
lives, as well as the tools to analyse it intelligently. With knowledge comes power, and the result is
a proliferation of initiatives that put the power to create change in everyone’s hands – thanks, in

many cases, to the mobile web.

Linked inextricably to the data revolution is the trend towards radical transparency. Access to
real-time information, coupled with peer-to-peer communication such as referrals and advice,
makes it now possible to know anything about everything at any particular time. This has multiple
and profound implications.

Take, for example, the Arab Spring uprisings. Their speed and success can partly be attributed to

A NEW ICT FRAMEWORK
the use of social networking to stay abreast of complex developments as they emerged. Clearly,
ICT has the power to help accelerate radical social change.

In everyday life, the use of smartphones, the mobile internet and applications like barcoo give
consumers greater knowledge – not only about what their community thinks is good or bad about
a particular product or purchase, but also where they can get it cheapest, or what they could buy

instead (see case studies below).

The impact on businesses is that it has become increasingly difficult to hide, control information
about brands, or cover up any (real or imagined) skeletons in the corporate closet. Naturally, the
tendency for progressive companies is to embrace this trend by becoming more open about their
impacts and publicly setting out plans to improve.

NEW OPPORTUNITIES
MAKING THE CASE FOR
SYSTEMIC CHANGE
CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX

19


Case studies
barcoo is a mobile phone-enabled scanner system which informs consumers about the products
they wish to buy, the sustainability credentials of the manufacturer, and where to buy the product
at the cheapest price. It then allows users to share their knowledge with friends and family.

OPOWER uses a digital platform to reinvent the way utilities companies interact with customers.
Built on a sustainability promise, it gives utilities providers the technology to simplify information
about household energy use and to show people how to make savings. OPOWER aims to be the
‘new normal’ for energy purchasing by creating a trusted community of consumers who use
energy more efficiently and economically.

THE CARBON DISCLOSURE PROJECT is an ICT-based platform designed to encourage
corporations to become more transparent about their carbon budgets. Part of the trend towards
open governance, it enables investors to add listed companies’ carbon credentials to their
deliberations when making investment decisions.

Fishing with 3G networks is a Brazilian initiative run through the Vivo 3G network. It uses
data to help bring economic development to small-scale fishing communities whilst enhancing
the sustainability of the fish stocks that they depend on at the same time. Fishermen provide daily
data on the number and species of fish caught, and can then sell their catch directly to customers
through an online market. This data is also used by government agencies to inform their
sustainability programmes, and can be used to monitor fish stocks and water quality. The system
can then direct boats away from over-exploited areas, and into sustainable fishing grounds that
can provide a better catch and hence an improvement of family income.

20

INTRODUCTION
CONCLUSIONS

THE CARBON CONTEXT
Given today’s critical sustainability challenges, we must urgently look for
disruptive ideas and solutions that could rise to the challenges we face.

ICT has potential to support and sustain the kinds of disruptive ideas and solutions that could rise
to the challenges we face. The opportunities are limited only by imagination.

We have applied a framework that looks at direct, indirect and systemic impacts to help review
opportunities for ICT to deliver such change. Our approach also helps to highlight where the
benefits might be greatest, and flags the risks that require far more attention.

One of greatest areas of potential is for ICT to create new behaviours or systems, rather than
simply alter current ways of doing things. Take, for example, different models of ownership
described in this report, specifically the adoption of car-sharing to reduce congestion as opposed

to traffic management applications. ICT makes disruptive change such as this not only far easier

A NEW ICT FRAMEWORK
but something that people desire, thanks to a shift in culture norms. In this example, a new
generation of consumers is less concerned about car ownership, in part because ICT offers easy
access to sharing schemes. It also helps to spread the word and reinforce the shift.

Disruptive change ultimately comes when people are inspired to do things differently. As a
platform from which to experiment, ICT has the ability to drive good ideas. It enables people to

test and grow initiatives with relatively little infrastructure and allows rapid learning without huge
resource or cost. Indeed, the more approaches we try and share, the more likely we are to succeed.

Our focus differs from the other reports reviewed, which generally assume that carbon savings
come mostly from improving infrastructure and doing business more efficiently. Instead, we feel
that more should be made of how ICT can help individuals across the globe to connect, share
ideas, adopt different approaches and act collectively to improve society.

NEW OPPORTUNITIES
One of the main precursors to systemic change is achieving the widespread connections and
collaboration needed to take disruptive change to a scale where it becomes the ‘new normal’.
Communication Companies are well placed to do this.

As devices gain functionality and mobile technology reaches a greater proportion of the planet’s
population, ICT companies have a unique opportunity to help people collaborate – and to harness
the ideas and ingenuity of millions at the same time.
MAKING THE CASE FOR
SYSTEMIC CHANGE
CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX

21


APPENDIX
A summary of the sustainability initiatives identified in the reports we reviewed, together with our classifications of the
basic impact areas of each.

1) Saving the climate at the speed of light1


cradle / waste

Smart motors
management

Efficient ICT

Dematerial-

Smart cities

monitoring
equipment

Smart Grid

buildings
Cradle to

sensing /
logistics

Remote
(travel)
isation

Smart

Smart
Impact area

A new and more efficient meeting culture: Travel replacement
Example: Videoconference, Audio-conference, Other areas – X
e.g. tele-education & tele-health
Sustainable consumption: Dematerialisation Example: Virtual
answering machine, Online phone billing, Web-taxation, Other X
areas – e.g. e-paper & digital film
Sustainable Community / City planning: Combined measures
Example: Flexi-work, Other areas – e.g. flexible car ownership, X X X
e-commerce, e-business, intelligent building heating

2) Smart 20202

cradle / waste

Smart motors
management

Efficient ICT

Dematerial-

Smart cities

monitoring
equipment

Smart Grid

buildings
Cradle to

sensing /
logistics

Remote
(travel)
isation

Smart

Smart
Impact area

The direct effect X

Dematerialisation Example: Online media, E-commerce, E-paper,
X
Videoconferencing, Telecommuting
Smart motor systems Example: Variable speed drives X

Smart logistics Example: Optimised routes & loading X

Smart buildings Example: Building management systems, power
X
shut-offs at end of day
Smart grids Example: Reduced transmission losses, demand
X
management

3) Impacts of ICTs on energy efficiency3

cradle / waste

Smart motors
management

Efficient ICT

Dematerial-

Smart cities

monitoring
equipment

Smart Grid

buildings
Cradle to

sensing /
logistics

Remote
(travel)
isation

Smart

Smart

Impact area

ICT energy efficiency and direct impacts Example: Social and
X
environmental effects
Low Energy Building Example: HVAC systems & lighting systems X

Industrial Equipment and Automation Example: Electrical Drivers,
X
Motors, Pumps and Fans, Automation & power management
Energy grids and Power Distribution Example: Supply & demand
X
management system, including metering & pricing
Dematerialisation of Society Example: e-government, teleconferencing,
X
e-work, e-commerce, dematerialised goods & services

4) Carbon Connections 4

cradle / waste

Smart motors
management

Efficient ICT

Dematerial-

Smart cities

monitoring
equipment

Smart Grid

buildings
Cradle to

sensing /
logistics

Remote
(travel)
isation

Smart

Smart

Impact area

Dematerialisation Example: Mobile telepresence, virtual office,
X
mobile delivery notifications for e-commerce
Smart grid Example: Energy network monitoring, smart meter:
X
micro-power generation, smart meter: grid loading optimisation
Smart logistics Example: Centralised tracking, decentralised tracking,
X
loading optimisation, onboard telematics, remote supply control
Smart cities Example: Synchronised traffic & alert system X

Smart manufacturing Example: High value product remote
X
monitoring module

22

INTRODUCTION
THE CARBON CONTEXT
5) Reducing GHGs through intense use of ICT5


cradle / waste

Smart motors
management

Efficient ICT

Dematerial-

Smart cities

monitoring
equipment

Smart Grid

buildings
Cradle to

sensing /
logistics

Remote
(travel)
isation

Smart

Smart
Impact area

Energy Generation and Distribution Example: Transmission and
Distribution Network Management, Smart metering, Renewable X
energy management systems, Intelligent Power Generation
Industry Example: Intelligent motor controllers, Industrial process X X
automation, Digital commercial printing
Transport Example: Supply chain & logistic optimisation, Private
transport optimisation,Virtual conferencing / telecommuting, X X X
Efficient vehicles, Traffic flow optimisation
Buildings Example: Energy management systems, Smart lighting
(automation), Intelligent building design, Teleworking, X X X
Demand-side management

A NEW ICT FRAMEWORK
6) Using ICTs to tackle Climate Change 6

cradle / waste

Smart motors
management

Efficient ICT

Dematerial-

Smart cities

monitoring
equipment

Smart Grid

buildings
Cradle to

sensing /
logistics

Remote
(travel)
isation

Smart

Smart
Impact area

Actions on adaptation to climate change Example: Monitoring

the global ecosystem, Addressing resource shortages. Monitoring
deforestation. Waste management. Increasing energy supply X X X X
efficiency & use of renewables. Climate Change Education
Healthcare
Actions to reduce GHG emissions Example: More efficient ICT
X
hardware
Actions on mitigation of Climate Change Example: Reducing Carbon
emissions in other sectors, Smart grids, Promoting smart industries, X X X X
Reducing or replacing travel, Smart logistics

7) Make IT Green7


NEW OPPORTUNITIES
cradle / waste

Smart motors
management

Efficient ICT

Dematerial-

Smart cities

monitoring
equipment

Smart Grid

buildings
Cradle to

sensing /
logistics

Remote
(travel)
isation

Smart

Smart

Impact area

Smartgrid Example: Integration & management of distributed
power generation, demand management, distributed storage X
systems, wireless grid management, vehicle to grid charging/
storage, demand response
Transportation Example: More efficient ICT hardware X
MAKING THE CASE FOR
SYSTEMIC CHANGE

Dematerialisation Example: Teleconference & meeting facilitation,
route planning/goods management, desktop virtualisation, smart X X
appliances, e-books, e-music, paperless workspace, digital photos,
cloud/virtualisation of servers
Buildings Example: Real-time transfer of information, smart meter
connectivity, GHG management dashboards, building energy X
management
Information Management Example: Facility level GHG management,
X
supply chain management and GHG reporting
CONCLUSIONS

1
WWF & ETNO, (2005). Saving the Climate @ the speed of light – First roadmap for reduced CO2 emissions in the EU and beyond
(http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/ict/)
2
The Climate Group on behalf of the Global eSustainability Initiative (2008) Smart2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age
(www.smart2020.org/)
3
bio Intelligence Service (2008) Impacts of Information and Communication Technologies on Energy Efficiency – final report to the European
Commission DG INFSO (www.ifap.ru/library/book373.pdf)
4
Vodafone & Accenture (2009) Carbon Connections: Quantifying mobile’s role in tackling climate change
(www.vodafone.com/content/dam/vodafone/about/sustainability/2011/pdf/carbon_connections.pdf)
5
IDC (2009) Reducing Greenhouse Gases Through Intense Use of Information and Communication Technology
(http://download.intel.com/pressroom/archive/reference/IDCWP31R.pdf)
APPENDIX

6
International Telecommunication Union (ITU) & Global eSustainability Initiative (2010) Using ICTs to Tackle Climate Change
(www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-t/oth/4B/01/T4B010000010001PDFE.pdf)
7
Greenpeace International (2010) Make IT Green: Cloud computing and its contribution to climate change
(www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/reports/make-it-green-cloud-computing/)
23

The Cover and Text pages for this booklet have been printed on 50% recycled material which is fully FSC accredited.
This discussion paper contains the views of Forum for the Future, not those of Telefónica.
Telefónica UK Limited is a partner of Forum for the Future.
© Forum for the Future December 2011.
Telefónica UK Limited. Registered in England no. 1743099. Registered Office: 260 Bath Road, Slough, SL1 4DX.

Connect, Collaborate, Change

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (20)

Similar to Connect, Collaborate, Change

Similar to Connect, Collaborate, Change (20)

More from Forum for the Future

More from Forum for the Future (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Connect, Collaborate, Change