VNI Global (Andres Maz), Power Point
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- 1. Cisco Visual Networking Index: Internet Traffic Growth Forecast Lucas Oloco, Director Service Provider June 9 2014 9th Annual Latin America Forecast Update 2013–2018 Andres Maz, Director Technology Policy
- 2. Cisco Confidential 2© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. The Network Effect of the Beautiful Game Just the IP streaming and digital broadcast of the World Cup is estimated to be 4.3 Exabytes… …Nearly equal to the total 2013 broadband traffic for Australia (4.6 Exabytes)
- 3. Cisco Confidential 3© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Exabytes per Month 50 51 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 IP Traffic in 2013 Projected in 2010 Actual
- 4. Cisco Confidential 4© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Key Trends 1 Dramatic growth continues… driven by video 2 Wide range of devices, applications and requirements 3 Wireless surpasses Fixed
- 5. Cisco Confidential 5© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 51 62 76 91 110 132 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Global IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global IP Traffic will Increase 2.6X from 2013 to 2018 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 21% CAGR Exabytes per Month
- 6. Cisco Confidential 6© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 3.5 4.4 5.3 6.4 7.6 8.9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Latin America IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line LATAM IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.5X from 2013 to 2018 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 21% CAGR Exabytes per Month
- 7. Cisco Confidential 7© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. More Video Viewing 79% of All IP Traffic Faster Broadband Speeds 2.6-Fold Speed Increase More Devices 21 Billion Connections More Internet Users 4 Billion Internet Users Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers, 2013–2018 Growth Catalysts
- 8. Cisco Confidential 8© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Latin America IP Video Traffic Growth IP Video Will Account for 81% of Global IP Traffic by 2018 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Petabytes per Month 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Gaming (0.03%, 0.06%) File Sharing (18%, 7%) Web/Data (23%, 12%) IP VOD (4%, 10%) Internet Video (55%, 71%) 21% CAGR 2013–2018 * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share
- 9. Cisco Confidential 9© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Key Trends 1 Dramatic growth continues… driven by video 2 Wide range of devices, applications and requirements 3 Wireless surpasses Fixed
- 10. Cisco Confidential 10© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Devices Matter: Monthly Traffic per Device (2013) =Tablet Ultra High Definition TV Laptop/PC Internet Set-Top or Dongle 4.0 GB = 22.9 GB* 22.7 GB = 8.0 GB * Includes IP VoD Traffic Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 = =Smartphone 1.0 GB =M2M Module 78 MB
- 11. Cisco Confidential 11© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Increasing Video Definition By 2018, More than 20% of Connected Flat Panel TV Sets will be 4K 1 8 28 63 119 202 0 50 100 150 200 250 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 SD 2 Mbps HD 7.2 Mbps UHD 18 Mbps Connected 4K TV Sets (M) Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
- 12. Cisco Confidential 12© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M More than a Third of the Total Connections * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 11% CAGR Billions of Devices 0 5 10 15 20 25 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 M2M (18.6%,35.2%) Smartphones (14.1%,19.1%) Non-Smartphones (37.6%,16.8%) TV (10.0%,12.8%) PCs (12.2%,7.0%) Tablets (2.3%,5.0%) Other Portable Devices (5.2%,4.1%)
- 13. Cisco Confidential 13© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 57% of Global IP Traffic Exabytes per Month 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.1%) Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.4%) M2M (0.4%,2.8%) Tablets (2.2%,14.0%) Smartphones (3.5%,16.3%) TV (26.5%,23.6%) PCs (67.2%,42.8%) 21% CAGR * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
- 14. Cisco Confidential 14© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Internet of Everything Smart Cars Will Have Nearly 4 M2M Modules Per Car by 2018 Average Traffic Grows 13.3X, From 3PB to 41PB Smart Cars Traffic (PB/Month) Source: Machina Research, Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Smart Cars (M) 35 57 90 136 192 256 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3 5 8 15 25 41 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
- 15. Cisco Confidential 15© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Residential Services By 2018, Online Video Will Grow the Fastest; Digital TV Will Have Highest Adoption Online Music Social Networking Online Video Online Gaming VoIP Digital TV Video on Demand Time Delayed TV 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2018 % Adoption Note: By 2018, the global residential fixed internet population will be 2.5 billion; the number of global TV households will be 1.8 billion. CAGR 2013–2018
- 16. Cisco Confidential 16© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Business Services By 2018 Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile SMS Will Have the Highest Adoption CAGR 2013–2018 Note: By 2018, the global business Internet population will be 2.1 billion; the number of business mobile users will be 582 million. SMS Mobile Email Room Based Video Conferencing IP Telephony Business LBS Audio Conferencing Desktop Video Conferencing Web Conferencing w/o Video -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 2018 % Adoption
- 17. Cisco Confidential 17© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Busy Hour versus Average Hour Busy Hour Will Be 3.3x Higher Than Average Hour by 2018 Ratio of Busy Hour to Average Hour Traffic 2.7 2.5 2.5 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.6 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.4 2.9 3.2 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Global APAC LATAM NA WE CEE MEA Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
- 18. Cisco Confidential 18© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour The Internet is the Next Primetime Medium for Video Traffic (Gbps) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Average Hour Busy Hour Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 28% CAGR 23% CAGR
- 19. Cisco Confidential 19© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Key Trends 1 Dramatic growth continues… driven by video 2 Wide range of devices, applications and requirements 3 Wireless surpasses Fixed
- 20. Cisco Confidential 20© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Will Surpass Fixed/Wired With 49% IP Traffic Share by 2018 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Petabytes per Month 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mobile Data (61% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (12% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (71% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR) 39% 36% 12% 21% CAGR 2013–2018 13%
- 21. Cisco Confidential 21© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Key Takeaways • Wide range of devices, applications, requirements • Internet of Everything is real • Wireless dominates access and is essential
- 22. Cisco Confidential 22© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Policy Implications • Networks need to be managed • Not all bits created equal • Wide range of device requirements • Average is not good enough • Need more spectrum – licensed and unlicensed • Wi-Fi essential and growing • Billions of M2M devices with diverse spectrum requirements
- 23. Cisco Confidential 23© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco VNI Web Sites • Press Releases • White Papers / FAQs • Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: ask-vnisa@cisco.com IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni Service Adoption Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vnisa
- 24. Thank you.
Notas do Editor
- Internet viewing of the world cup could generate 1.3 Exabytes of Internet traffic. That’s almost as much traffic as traverses all of Brazil’s broadband connections in an entire month (1.4 Exabytes). Note: IPTV linear broadcast of the world cup games would likely generate an additional 3 exabytes. Calculation: 82.5 million people watch the World Cup Final streamed via the Internet, at a bit rate of 22.5 MB/min, for 120 minutes -> 222.8 PB 8.3 million people watch the other World Cup games (on average) streamed via the Internet, at a bit rate of 22.5 MB/min, for 90 minutes of each of the remaining 63 games (5670 minutes total) à 1.1 EB Note: 3.2 billion watched the last World Cup, 715 million for the finals alone. - http://www.adweek.com/news/advertising-branding/brazil-s-world-cup-marketers-dream-also-potential-nightmare-152890 Someday – everyday will like the World Cup final… the Super Bowl Sunday…
- The VNI methodology, while admittedly conservative in some respects, has proven to be consistently accurate, generally in alignment with actual traffic growth statistics reported by other sources and individual service providers.
- Here’s the top-line view… LATAM IP traffic will increase 2.6-fold from 2013 to 2018. IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21 percent during this period, reaching 9 exabytes per month by 2018, up from 3.47 exabytes per month in 2013. In Latin America, IP traffic reached 3.5 Exabytes per month in 2013, up from 2.5 Exabytes per month in 2012.
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- The sum of all forms of IP video (Internet video, IP VoD, video files exchanged through file sharing, video-streamed gaming, and videoconferencing) will continue to be in the range of 80 to 90 percent of total IP traffic. In Lat America, IP video traffic will account for 81 percent of traffic in 2018. IP Video In Latin America, IP video traffic will grow 3-fold from 2013 to 2018, a compound annual growth rate of 28%. In Latin America, IP video traffic will reach 7.2 Exabytes per month in 2018, up from 2.1 Exabytes per month in 2013. In Latin America, IP video will be 81% of all IP traffic in 2018, up from 60% in 2013. Internet Video In Latin America, Internet video traffic will grow 3-fold from 2013 to 2018, a compound annual growth rate of 27%. In Latin America, Internet video traffic will reach 6.2 Exabytes per month in 2018, up from 1.9 Exabytes per month in 2013. In Latin America, total Internet video traffic (business and consumer, combined) will be 79% of all Internet traffic in 2018, up from 59% in 2013.
- Different devices consume different amounts of data Note that traffic is growing at a much higher rate than the grow of users and Internet video viewers --- and what’s partially driving that is the fact that those users are migrating to devices that are much more bandwidth intensive Globally, M2M modules will average 0.514 GB per month, up from 0.078 GB in 2013. Globally, Smartphones will average 5.4 GB per month, up from 1.0 GB in 2013. Globally, Tablets will average 18.0 GB per month, up from 4.0 GB in 2013. Globally, PCs will average 39.2 GB per month, up from 22.7 GB in 2013. Globally, Connected 4K TVs will average 26.3 GB per month, up from 22.9 GB in 2013.
- Tablets will grow the fastest at 29% CAGR (3.6 fold) M2Ms will grow more than 3 fold during the forecast period at 26% CAGR to 7.3 billion connections by 2018. Smartphones will more than double at 18% CAGR to nearly 4 billion units by 2018. Connected TVs (that include Flat panel TVs, STBs, DMAs, Blu ray disc players and gaming consoles) will double (2.1 fold) to 2.6 billion. PCs will decline -1% over the forecast period. There will be more tablets by the end of 2018 then laptops (848 million). Other portables: This category includes e-readers, handheld gaming consoles, video conferencing systems, IP Phones, NAS, digital cameras and camcorders, digital photo frames,
- Global IP traffic from non-PC devices was 33% of total IP traffic in 2013, and will be 57% of total IP traffic in 2018. Globally, PCs accounted for 67% of IP traffic in 2013, and will be 43% of IP traffic in 2018. Globally, TVs accounted for 26% of IP traffic in 2013, and will be 24% of IP traffic in 2018. Globally, portable devices such as smartphones and tablets accounted for 6% of IP traffic in 2013, and will be 31% of IP traffic in 2018. Globally, M2M modules accounted for 0.4% of IP traffic in 2013, and will be 3% of IP traffic in 2018. Other portables: This category includes e-readers, handheld gaming consoles, video conferencing systems, IP Phones, NAS, digital cameras and camcorders, digital photo frames,
- Between 2012 and 2013 the highest growth happened on the internet side in Online video 16% growth. On TV side VoD grew 17% Digital TV and PVR grew 15%. By 2018, Digital TV and Online Video will be the two most highly penetrated services (86% and 78% respectively). Fastest growth will come from Online Video (10%). Online Music and video are both driven by cloud based personal storage and sharing sites in addition to both copyrighted and user generated content use. PVR services will grow at 9%. "2012-13 YoY Growth" 2013 Penetration 2018 Penetration CAGR 2018 Res Internet Users 1,790,640,269 1,925,023,167 2,457,761,801 5.0% 0 Online Music 8.6% 46% 65% 7.1% 1,607,811,147 Social Networking 8.8% 52% 70% 6.0% 1,725,558,785 Online Video 15.7% 49% 78% 9.7% 1,912,227,373 Online Gaming 8.2% 46% 62% 6.3% 1,534,015,717 Res VoIP Users 8.2% 39% 49% 4.9% 1,215,604,962 Digital TV HH 15.5% 42% 86% 8.1% 1,517,120,405 VoD Subs 17.4% 12% 26% 8.1% 451,209,162 PVR Subs 14.6% 5% 11% 8.6% 197,738,278 Top online video sites by total minutes viewed: Google Sites FC2 inc. Youku & Tudou Dwango Co., Ltd. LETV.COM IQIYI.COM TENCENT Inc. Facebook Sohu.com Inc. Yahoo Sites NETFLIX.COM (11th rank)
- Between 2012 and 2013, the highest YoY growth was in Business LBS with a yoy growth of 47%, from 44m users to 65 million in 2013. Other significant YoY growth was in desktop video conferencing (44%) Business LBS is use of LBS services by the users whose subscription is paid by the companies/ businesses they work for. As such it includes but is not limited to services such as mobile force management - sales force and field force automation, fleet management etc. Lower growth in room based conferencing users. Single codec video conferencing systems grew but with the exception of LATAM all regions experienced a decline in executive conferencing systems and multi-codec systems. Because Multi-codec systems are typically fully managed, they are therefore expensive to keep. As unit sales drop, so does the network of units to connect to, therefore use drops off. Low use systems are decommissioned over time due to the high fixed cost of management. From 2013-2018, the fastest growing business service is expected to be desktop or personal video conferencing . The growth of personal video conferencing has recently accelerated based on the quality and price of new services and products - specifically UC-base video, but also availability of desktop video conferencing offers which can be standalone or integrated. Also, the growth of mobile clients is going to help this growth. Use of Web Conferencing without video on the other hand will show a decline with -1% CAGR. 2012-13 YoY Growth 2013 Penetration 2018 Penetration 2013-18 CAGR 2018 Business Mobile SMS 10% 81% 92% 5% 536,405,600 Business Mobile Email 27% 25% 52% 18% 299,877,600 Room Based Conf Users 14% 7% 8% 8% 158,534,314 Business IP Telephony 14% 11% 12% 8% 243,975,860 Business Mobile LBS 47% 12% 34% 25% 196,733,300 Audio Conf 9% 5% 7% 14% 143,329,967 Desktop Video Conf 44% 2% 11% 45% 238,286,822 Web Conf w/o Video 8% 1% 1% -1% 16,945,108
- Global Fixed/Wi-Fi was 41% of total IP traffic in 2013, and will be 49% of total IP traffic in 2018. Global Fixed/Wired was 56% of total IP traffic in 2013, and will be 39% of total IP traffic in 2018. Global Mobile was 3% of total IP traffic in 2013, and will be 12% of total IP traffic in 2018. • Here’s a key milestone projection: By 2017, fixed/wi-fi traffic will surpass fixed/wired traffic. This projection validates an important trend—network users don’t want to be tethered; there’s a preference for mobile networking when it’s available.
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