Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides brokerage services including receiving, executing, and transmitting orders. The document discusses August market recaps and perspectives for September, including key events in Greece, Germany, the ECB, and Spain. It also summarizes economic data and performance in the US, Europe, emerging markets, Portugal, and major stock indices. The disclaimer at the end notes that Fincor only provides brokerage services and the document should not be considered investment advice.

1. FINCOR – Sociedade Corretora, S.A.

2. Monthly Perspectives
September 3th, 2012
.
Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides services of reception, execution, and transmission of orders. The contents mentioned in this document do not
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said content or about any resulting effect that could have occurred.

3. August: Recap

4. Greece – September will be crucial
-Greece wants a 2 years delay to implement new austerity measures.
- But Juncker, Merkel and Hollande said that a decision will only be taken after Troika’s visit in September. All
they said if Greece wants to remain in the Eurozone they must accomplish the program designed to the
country.

5. Spain, what are you waiting for?
-Fitch said the country will need more then the The pressure over the Banking Sector continues as
€100B initially forecasted for its bailout. the Non-Performing Loans continues to increase.
-And Catalonia asked for a €5B bailout. Valencia
increased the amount asked from €3,5B to €4,5B.
Just these two regions spent half of the €18B
capacity of the Regional Rescue Fund.

6. Spain, what are you waiting for?
-Mariano Rajoy said that the country won’t need to raise taxes in 2013. As the economy is expected to
contract and with a target budget deficit of 6,3% for this year, is this situation sustainable?

7. ECB, what is your next There is still disagreement
step? about the policies to take
-There is a lots of talk in the markets saying that the Monti wants that the Bailout Funds of the Region to
ECB will define a limit to the yields of each country, gain a Banking Permission, something that Merkel is
and if that value is exceeded they will intervene against.
buying sovereign bonds.
-Bundesbank opposed immediately to this, and German court will have an important word on
PIMCO’s El-Erian also said this was a bad idea. September, 12.

8. Europe
-Economic data points to a contraction in the region.
PMI Manufacturing Industrial Production
65 4
3
60
2
55 1
Eurozone 0
50 Germany
Germany -1
45 France
Italy -2
-3 Italy
40 France
-4 UK
35 UK -5
30 -6
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12

9. US – Closer than ever from QE3
-Bernanke at Jackson Hole: “Unless the economy begins to grow more quickly than it is recently, the
unemployment is likely to remain far above levels consistent with maximum employment”.
US: Unemployment Rate
11
10
9 8,3
8
7
6
5
4
-A previous study from the FED revealed that the natural rate for country’s unemployment is 6%. Statements
from several FED members points to incremental stimulus in the economy, how close to QE3?

10. US – The economy seems recovering
US: Housing Starts US: Building Permits
1000 900
850
900 811
800
800 746 750
700 700
650
600
600
500
550
400 500

11. US – The economy seems recovering
U. Michigan Confidence US: Consumer Confidence
85 80
80 70
74,3 60,6
75
60
70
50
65
40
60
55 30
50 20

12. US – The economy seems recovering
US: Leading Indicators
2
1 0,4
0
-1
-2
-3
-4

13. US – The economy seems recovering
-But we should pay attention to the consistent manufacturing data that points to a possible slowdown
US: Empire Manufacturing US: Philadelphia FED Index
40 50
30 40
30
20
20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-5,85 -7,1
-20
-20
-30
-30 -40
-40 -50
US: Dallas FED Index US: Richmond Fed Index
30 40
20 30
10 20
0
10
-10 -1,6
0
-20
-10
-30 -9
-40 -20
-50 -30
-60 -40
-70 -50

14. New highs on Apple and new lows on Facebook
700 40
680
660 35
640
620 30
600
Apple Price
580 25
Facebook Price
560
540 20
520
500 15
-Samsung will pay a fine of $1,05B to Apple for violation of patents. The company faces the risk of being
forbidden to sell its products on the US.

15. Emerging Markets
China: PMI Manufacturing
58
-Inflation in China fell to a of two years’ low, while
56
manufacturing data continues to show a slowdown
in the economy. 54
52
-Brazil announced that will invest BRL133B in the 50,1
50
next 25 years to develop roads, transports and
railway lines. The country cut SELIC from 8% to 7,5%. 48

16. Portugal
- BPI increased their capital in €200 million, by completing a rights offering of 400 million shares with a
subscription price of €0,5 each.
- Brisa successful tender from Tagus who now have over 85% of the company and 92% of its voting rights.
-Banif presented a loss of €125 million during 1H12, due to economic recession in Portugal and the increase
of NPLs. This month BANIF will announce a capital increase with the support of the Portuguese Government.
-Altri presented a profit of €15,85 million during the second quarter, beating all the analysts estimates.
-Banif and Cofina will join PSI20 Index on September 24th, after Brisa and Cimpor left.
-REN will launch in bonds €200 million, in a retail offering. It will have a maturity of 4 years and will pay a
coupon of 6,25%.

17. Performance
The markets had a positive performance in August, with a special regard to peripheral countries in Europe.
Last Chg. % Chg. %
Price MTD YTD
Europe
PSI 20 4998,86 6,63% -9,02%
Last Price Chg. % Chg. %
IBEX35 7420,5 10,13% -13,38%
MTD YTD
CAC 40 3413,07 3,69% 8,02%
10Y Bond Yields: Spread vs DAX 30 6970,79 2,93% 18,18%
FOREX
Euro/$ 1,2575 2,19% -2,98%
FTSE 100 5711,48 1,35% 2,50%
Germany FTSE MIB 15100,48 8,71% 0,07%
£/Euro 1,2624 0,86% -5,05%
Euro/Yen 98,46 -2,34% 1,22%
6,5 SMI 6388,01 -0,18% 7,61%
Eur/CHF 1,20081 0,03% 1,33%
Euro Stoxx 50 2436 4,64% 8,90%
6 Commodities
USA
5,523 CRB 491,13 1,80% 1,89%
5,5 DOW 30 13103,61 0,73% 7,25%
WTI Oil 96,88 9,67% -1,72%
S&P500 1407,68 2,06% 11,93%
5 Brent Oil 114,7 10,46% 9,69%
Spain Nasdaq 3066,314 4,31% 17,70%
4,513 Gold 1687,75 4,55% 7,93%
4,5 Latin America
Italy
Bovespa 56996,67 1,60% 0,43%
4
Mexbol 39820,04 -2,17% 7,40%
3,5 Asia
Nikkei 225 8839,91 3,33% 4,55%
Hang Seng 19482,57 -0,93% 5,69%

18. September

19. Europe
-Troika returns to Greece on September 5th. What
will be the outcome?
-Germany’s Constitutional Court takes a decision
about ESM on September 12th.
-Will the ECB advance with a Security Markets
Program?
-Results to the audit of the Spanish Banking Sector
are expected to be published during the month.

20. US – Will the QE3 be finally announced?
-Data about employment will have a high importance for a decision.
Non-Farm Payrolls Initial Jobless Claims
600 700 667
400 650
200 163
600
0
550
-200
500
-400
450
-600
400 374
-800
-1000 350

21. US – Will the QE3 be finally announced?
-PIMCO’s Bill Gross thinks that we are close of the QE3. “Unemployment is still above 8% and it’s obvious
that the FED isn’t comfortable”. Until unemployment is below 7% or inflation is higher than 2%, we should
continue to assist to additional stimulus from the FED.

22. Major risks for the markets
-Accordingly with PIMCO’s El-Erian, the 4 major risks for the global economy are the Fiscal Cliff in the US, the
Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe, a Geopolitical conflict and an economic slowdown from China.

23. Technical's tells us to buy

24. But Fundamentals are misleading
Vicious Cycle of Europe. We are currently on level 2.

25. Asset allocation
Long Term Positive but still conservative due to market risks
Corporate Bonds (name selection)
Emerging Markets Equities
European Equities
US Equities
Emerging Markets Currencies
Commodities
Sovereign Debt

26. Disclaimer
Disclaimer
A Fincor—Sociedade Corretora, S.A. fornece somente serviços de recepção,
transmissão e execução de ordens. Os conteúdos mencionados não constitui (e
não será concebido de forma a constituir) qualquer espécie de aconselhamento,
ou recomendação de investimento, ou um registo dos nossos preços de
negociação, ou uma oferta ou solicitação para a transacção de qualquer
instrumento financeiro. A Fincor—Sociedade Corretora, S.A. não aceitará
qualquer responsabilidade em consequência de qualquer uso que possa ser dado
ao referido conteúdo ou sobre qualquer efeito que daí advenha.

27. Contatos :
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1250-071 Lisboa, Portugal
Tel. +351 21 382 40 10
Fax.+351 21 380 30 49
fincor@fincor.pt
www.fincor.pt
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