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Texas Electric Market Restructuring
    A Customer Success Story




              C. John Wilder
          Chief Executive Officer

              June 14, 2005
Today’s Agenda
                   From                        To


   Market
   Market        Regulation             A truly competitive
Restructuring
Restructuring                           market




Texas Power
Texas Power      No customer choice     Full customer control
Restructuring
Restructuring



    TXU’s
    TXU’s        A regulated monopoly   An industrial
Transformation
Transformation                          energy company

                                                              1
Over Time Restructuring Allows Customers To Capture The
Benefits Of Open Markets And Competition…

                               Efficiency




                              Increased
                               Increased
                              consumer
                               consumer
                                value
                                 value

             Investment                         Innovation

••Over the long term open markets allocate resources better than monopolies
   Over the long term open markets allocate resources better than monopolies
  and regulators
   and regulators
••quot;Competition on its worst day is better than regulation on its best day.”
   quot;Competition on its worst day is better than regulation on its best day.”
                                                 Pat Wood, FERC Chairman
                                                  Pat Wood, FERC Chairman

                                                                               2
…Evidenced By The Improvements Made Across
Multiple Industries
Increased
investment...                               …Efficiency...                      ...And innovation
                                            Percent of available airline seat
US Telecom investment                       miles filled                        New cable services
93-04; $ billions                           77-00; Percent                      96-04; No units
                                                                71                Access to over 300
                            33        44%
                                      44%                              27%
                                                                       27%
                                                   56                             channels (from 30)
      23
                                                                                  HDTV technology
                                                                                  DSL (Internet
                                                                                  broadband)
                                                                                  Pay-per-View
  93-96                  97-04                    77            00                Digital Video
Pre-                                           Pre-                               Recorder
deregulation                                   deregulation
                                                                                  Parental controls

     “Markets can both price and allocate capital; not just allocate,”
      “Markets can both price and allocate capital; not just allocate,”
                                                                                  Financial Times
                                                                                   Financial Times
Source: British telecom, O&D survey
                                                                                                      3
These Improvements Have Led To Lower Prices For
Consumers…

Crashing prices: Airline prices   Cheap calls: US long distance Trucking prices (truckload)
79-05; Index of real prices       80-05; Index of real          67-05; Index of real $/ton
(1979=100)                        revenue/minute (1980=100)     (1967=100)


                                                                    100
      100                            100
                   45%                            86%                           37%
                   45%                            86%                           37%

                                                                                 63
                    55


                                                   14


                                                                    67
       79                            80                                         Today
                   Today                         Today




  A competitive market forces the efficiency gains through to the customer in
  A competitive market forces the efficiency gains through to the customer in
              the form of lower prices and value added services
               the form of lower prices and value added services
                                                                                        4
…And Difficult Transitions For The Former Monopolies:
 Declining Financial Flexibility…
                            AAA   AA    A     BBB    BB    B        CCC    D
Bankruptcies
                                                               04
                                        90
                 American                                      04
                                        90

                                                                      04
                                        90                            04
                                        90
                 Delta
 96   Airlines
                 United                        90                          04
                                               90                          04



                 AT&T             90                 04
                                  90                 04
 69   Telecom    Qwest             90                 04
                                   90                 04
                 MCI                                 90                    02
                                                     90                    02


                 Yellow            90           04
                                   90           04
 37   Trucking
                 Ryder                   90    04
                                         90    04


                                                                           5
…And Poor Returns

Poor returns: Annual total return to shareholders (CAGR)
83-03; Percent
                                        90%
         13.0


                                                                      6.9     5.7
                                              5.8
                    3.5                               3.1
                                Average


                           -2.0
                                                               -5.1
                                      -6.3
     S&P 500 American Delta          United   AT&T   Qwest     MCI    Ryder   Yellow

                          Airlines                   Telecom            Trucking

  There is not a single industrial deregulated incumbent that has outperformed
   There is not a single industrial deregulated incumbent that has outperformed
                     the broader market over the last 20 years
                      the broader market over the last 20 years
Source: Compustat
                                                                                       6
Today’s Agenda
                   From                        To


   Market
   Market        Regulation             A truly competitive
Restructuring
Restructuring                           market




Texas Power
Texas Power      No customer choice     Full customer control
Restructuring
Restructuring



    TXU’s
    TXU’s        A regulated monopoly   An industrial
Transformation
Transformation                          energy company

                                                              7
The Texas Electric Market Is One Of The Largest In The
 World And Now One Of Only A Few Competitive Retail
 Markets
Electricity consumption                                                           Competitive retail
02; TWh

     3,660




              1,457

                      971
                            780
                                  513   510   487   415         344
                                                          352         320
                                                                            267   218   196

   United     Japan   Germany Canada    Brazil      Texas      Spain
   States
         China    Russia    India  France    United      South    Australia
                                           Kingdom       Korea
                            Texas is the 11th biggest market in the world
                             Texas is the 11th biggest market in the world
Source: EIA                                                                                       8
Texas Restructuring Has “Unbundled” The Electric Power
Value Chain And Restructured Many Activities
                                                                            Competitive


                                    Transmission
                 Generation                                  Distribution

                                      Restructuring


           Generation         Transmission                           Retail
                                                   Distribution

                                                                     59 active retailers
           67 generators                5 T&D
Examples    ANP                              AEP Central              Cirro
            Calpine                          AEP North                Constellation
            Constellation                    CenterPoint              Direct Energy
            Exelon                           TNMP                     Entergy
            FPL                              TXU Electric Delivery    First Choice
            Sempra                                                    GEXA
            Texas Genco                                               Green Mountain
            TXU Power                                                 Reliant Energy
                                                                      TXU Energy
      Restructuring has brought a variety of new players into the market
      Restructuring has brought a variety of new players into the market
                                                                                      9
Competition Has Led To The Formation Of Many Different
Business Models                              Where companies participate

                                             …to many different models:
                                             Participate in…                   Examples

                                             All segments                       TXU Corp
                                                               GTDR




   Texas evolved from an                     T&D only                           CenterPoint
                                                                   TD
                                                               G           R


   integrated model…                                                            AEP Central/North
Genera- Trans- Distri-
                         Retail              Retail only                        Reliant Energy
                                                                           R
                                                               G   T   D
tion    mission bution
                                                                                Green Mountain
  5 regulated, integrated companies

                                             Retail and                         Centrica (Direct)
                                                               G           R
                                                                   T   D

                                             generation                         Calpine
                                                                                Constellation
                                                                                FPL/Gexa
                                                                                (pending)
                                             Generation                         Texas Genco
                                                               G   T   D   R

                                             only
••Only time will tell which business models will succeed
   Only time will tell which business models will succeed
••As the market continues to mature, the winning business model may continue to change
   As the market continues to mature, the winning business model may continue to change
                                                                                               10
ERCOT Was Designed So That Customers Could Capture
The Benefits Of Open Markets And Competition
                    What Texas Did Right            How Customers Benefited

                                                      Significant investment in
                     Simple bilateral market
                                                      state of the art
                     Expedited permitting and
 Wholesale
 Wholesale                                            technology (efficient
                     interconnection
                                                      CCGT)
                                                      Improved operational
                                                      performance
                     PTB provided headroom            Many competitive options
                     and mechanism to pass            Lower prices than
 Retail
 Retail              on commodity changes             under continued regulation
                     Low barriers for entry           New products (loyalty
                     Immediate competitive            programs, “green power”)
                     pricing for customers

The Texas Legislature correctly designed the retail framework to:
 The Texas Legislature correctly designed the retail framework to:
•• Ensure Texans have access to reliable electricity at competitive prices and
    Ensure Texans have access to reliable electricity at competitive prices and
   improved customer service
    improved customer service
•• Foster competitive behavior and encourage entrepreneurship, while
    Foster competitive behavior and encourage entrepreneurship, while
   continuing to protect consumers
    continuing to protect consumers                                               11
Restructuring Spurred Massive Generation Investment In
  The ERCOT Market…                           In rate base
                                                                                                   Not in rate base
 Capacity additions
 90-04; GW1
                  90-97 Additions= 6 GW                                               98-04 Additions= 26 GW

                                                                                                    6.6
                                              PURA 95                   SB7                               5.7
                                                                                             5.5
                                              (wholesale                (retail
                                                                                                                 4.4
                                              competition)              competition)

                                                                                                                       2.9
                    1.7
                                            1.1
                                                    1.0      0.8                       0.7
                                    0.6                                   0.5
                                                                   0.4
                            0.2                                                 0.2

  Year               90      91      92      93         94   95    96     97    98      99   00     01    02     03    04
  Reserve
  Margin (%)         27      29      27      23         23   17    16      9    8       7    12     28    35     32    33


    From 98-04, more than $15 billion was invested in generation infrastructure –
     From 98-04, more than $15 billion was invested in generation infrastructure –
                         none of which was in the rate base
                          none of which was in the rate base

1 GW = 1000 MW (1 MW serves approximately 1000 homes)
                                                                                                                        12
Source: Energy Velocity; NERC
…Bringing Efficient CCGT Capacity Into The ERCOT
  Generation Portfolio                       Average demand
  ERCOT generation portfolio: Average variable cost1
  98-04; $/MWh
                                                    Internal
        98
                                                  combustion
 200
                                            Gas/oil
 150
                                                                                           ••Restructuring led
                                                                                              Restructuring led
 100 Wind                                                                                    to the investment
                            Coal
                                                                                              to the investment
             Nuclear                                                                         of over $15 billion
                                                                                              of over $15 billion
   50                                                 Average price ~ $80
                                                                                             and the addition of
                                                                                              and the addition of
    0
                                                                                             the 22GW of
                                                                                              the 22GW of
        0                    20                   40                60                80
                                                                                             efficient CCGT
                                                                                              efficient CCGT
                                                                                             capacity
        04                                                                                    capacity
                                                                           Internal
                                                                                           ••Overall the total
 200                                                                                          Overall the total
                                                                         combustion
                                                                                             market is receiving
                                                                                              market is receiving
                                                               Gas/oil
 150                                   22 GW of new                                          less than an 8%
                                                                                              less than an 8%
                                     efficient capacity
        Wind           Coal                                                                  return on capital
 100
                                                                                              return on capital
             Nuclear                      CCGT
   50
                                                            Average price ~ $45
    0
        0                    20                   40                60                80
                                     Cumulative Capacity
1 Based on a $6.00/MMBtu gas price
                                            GW                                                                  13
Source: Platt’s PowerDat
…Leading To A Significant Reduction In Market Heat Rates

ERCOT heat rate1 cycle
98-04; MMBtu/MWh

    16
                                                                                  CCGT reinvestment economics
    14
    12
    10
      8
      6
      4
                         CCGT marginal heat rate
      2
      0
                   98                   99                   00                   01                   02                   03                   04


 ••   New capacity has led to a 40% increase in the efficiency of the marginal unit
       New capacity has led to a 40% increase in the efficiency of the marginal unit
 ••   This would be similar to improving average automobile gas mileage from 20
       This would be similar to improving average automobile gas mileage from 20
      mpg to 35 mpg
       mpg to 35 mpg
1 Heat rate is a measure of the efficiency of converting a unit of fuel (MMBtu) into a unit of electricity (MWh); lower heat rates implies higher efficiency.
Based on day ahead electricity and gas prices.
Source: MegaWatt Daily, Gas Daily                                                                                                                             14
Competition Has Forced Marginal Pricing, Preventing Most
Generators From Receiving Full Compensation For Capital
Invested                                     Capital recovery
                                                                                                      Fixed cost
Full reinvestment economics1
                                                                                                      Variable cost
052; $ / MWH
                                                                                               72
           66
                                                                                                16
                                        56                                                                 Today’s prices2
                                                                                                3
                                                                      48
                                                                                                           Forward price
            54                                                                                             range3
                                        38                           24
                                                                                                53
                                                                      8
                                        14
                                                                     16
        12
                                       4
         0
   Wind w/o PTC                     Nuclear                         Coal                       CCGT

 Similar to other competitive markets pricing is bid down to the variable
  Similar to other competitive markets pricing is bid down to the variable
 economics of the marginal unit
  economics of the marginal unit
1 Wind capacity factor=40%, Nuclear=90%, Coal=90%, CCGT=60%
2 Assumes $7.50 / MMBtu natural gas prices and 7x24 Heatrate of 8 MMBtu/MWh
3 Assumes range of $4.50-$5.50 / MMBtu natural gas prices and 7x24 Heatrate of 8-9 MMBtu/MWh
                                                                                                                       15
Source: EIA, Henwood
ERCOT Was Designed So That Customers Could Capture
The Benefits Of Open Markets And Competition
                    What Texas Did Right            How Customers Benefited

                                                      Significant investment in
                     Simple bilateral market
                                                      state of the art
 Wholesale           Expedited permitting and
 Wholesale                                            technology (efficient
                     interconnection
                                                      CCGT)
                                                      Improved operational
                                                      performance
                     PTB provided headroom            Many competitive options
                     and mechanism to pass            Lower prices than under
 Retail
 Retail              on commodity changes             continued regulation
                     Low barriers for entry           New products (loyalty
                     Immediate competitive            programs, “green power”)
                     pricing for customers

The Texas Legislature correctly designed the retail framework to:
 The Texas Legislature correctly designed the retail framework to:
•• Ensure Texans have access to reliable electricity at competitive prices and
    Ensure Texans have access to reliable electricity at competitive prices and
   improved customer service
    improved customer service
•• Foster competitive behavior and encourage entrepreneurship, while
    Foster competitive behavior and encourage entrepreneurship, while
   continuing to protect consumers
    continuing to protect consumers                                               16
Customers Have Already Begun To Reap The Benefits Of
Competition…
Average residential prices1                                                  Average large business prices1
02-04; $/MWh                                                                 02-04; $/MWh



                               15%                                                                          20%
                               15%                                                                          20%
                93
                                               79
                                                                                             66
                                                                                                                           53




        If regulation                 Competitive                                   If regulation                  Competitive
          continued                                                                   continued

 ••Even with historically high natural gas prices, customers have benefited
    Even with historically high natural gas prices, customers have benefited
   from access to lower electricity prices than they would have experienced
    from access to lower electricity prices than they would have experienced
   under regulation
    under regulation


1 Competitive Residential price based on 15% discount to TXU Energy PTB as currently offered by market competitors, e.g., Cirro (14.6%); Competitive
  large business rates include 10% wholesale gross up and 5% net margin; Regulated world assumes 9.6 GW added capacity in the rate base (as
  opposed to 22GW actually built) at a cost of $600/kw, O&M costs approximately $36/kw-yr resulting in an average cost of $127/kw-yr in the rate base
Source: TXU Energy, ECOM model                                                                                                                          17
… Giving Customers In Texas Access To Lower Prices Than
Before Restructuring
Change in best available price
Dec 01 – Dec 04; Percent
                                                                                                180
                                                                                                          101
                                      25.2




                                                                   8.4
                                                7.5
                                                          3.7


                           -1.2
                  -1                                                        -3.2
       -3
                                                                                     -6.9
     North               Colorado               Arizona          Oklahoma          Arkansas           Gasoline
     Texas
              Houston               Louisiana             Utah            New               Natural gas
                                                                         Mexico

                             Competitive providers have used efficiency
                             Competitive providers have used efficiency
                              to combat higher purchased power costs
                               to combat higher purchased power costs
Source: Texas PUC, EIA
                                                                                                                 18
Electricity Prices Have Increased Much Slower Than Inflation
And Represent A Smaller Amount Of Disposable Income
Change in prices                      Change in use of disposable income
90-04; Percent                        90-04; Percent change

      45                                32%

                     62%
                     62%                       24%




                                                      4%      3%
                                                                     0%
                      17

                                                                           -10%   -13%

                                                                                         -21%


                                      Recreation  Automobiles   Gasoline     Electricity
Consumer Residential
                                             Medical      Housing        Food        Clothing
  Price  electricity
  Index

  Efficiency in technology and operations has reduced the cost of electricity on
  Efficiency in technology and operations has reduced the cost of electricity on
                                  a real basis
                                   a real basis
Source: EIA, Department of Commerce
                                                                                           19
Significant Switching Highlights Texas As The Only Truly
  Competitive Residential Retail Electricity Market In The U.S.
  Significant competition: Net incumbent switch rates
  May 05; Percent of load

                                             73
                     72

                                                                      28                                           14
                                                                                               4
              Large                   Small and                 Residential                 Local             Long distance
             Business                  Medium                                           telephone 3             3 years after
                                      Business                                           years after           restructuring
                                                                                       restructuring
                       ERCOT retail switching

    The only true market: Net residential incumbent switch rates
    Feb 05; Percent of load1
          28


                                8             7
                                                            3              3
                                                                                         2              2          2        1   1

                TX            DC             NY            PA            MD             OH            MA          CT       ME   CA
1 Texas updated as of May ’05 based on ERCOT data; Ohio excludes load attributable to municipal aggregation
                                                                                                                                     20
Source: KEMA, FCC, CERA
ERCOT Accounts for Nearly 80% of US Residential Switching

                                                                                             Residential switching by state2
     US Residential retail sales1
                                                                                             2004; 100% ~ 38 TWh
     2004; 100% = 1,293 TWh

                                                                                                  All other
                                                                                                  markets3
                                           ERCOT
                                                                                                                                             ERCOT
                                           8%                                         New York                      9%
                                                                                                          9%
                                                                          Pennsylvania
                                                                                                     4%




                                                                                                                                       78%
                              92%
    Rest of US



While ERCOT is only 8% of total electric sales in the US, it comprises 78% of
 While ERCOT is only 8% of total electric sales in the US, it comprises 78% of
residential switching across the United States
 residential switching across the United States
1 Based on data from EIA; ERCOT website
2 Based on data from KEMA – 2004 Restructuring Review; state PUC websites; excludes load in Ohio attributed to municipal aggregation
3 Includes AZ, CA, CT, DC, DE, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MT, NH, NJ, NV, OH, OR, RI, VA
                                                                                                                                                     21
Texas Customers Receive Superior Customer Service,
 Even When Benchmarked Against More Mature Industries…

 Average speed of answer
 03-05; Seconds
                                  489




              280
                       96%                 98%
                       96%                 98%



                                                       52
                           12                                      16
                                              12
          03 Avg       Q1 05                        Baby Bell   National
                                April 04   Oct 04
                                                    telephone   financial
              TXU Energy        ERCOT Competitor
                                                    company     svcs. co.

 While TXU Energy took the lead in improving call center operations, a major
  While TXU Energy took the lead in improving call center operations, a major
 competitor soon followed – exactly what you would expect in a competitive
  competitor soon followed – exactly what you would expect in a competitive
 market
  market
Source: TXU
                                                                                22
…And Will Reap The Benefits Of Innovative New Products


                      Existing Product Offerings


                 Commodity Related
                   Price To Beat (PTB) – NTX
                   PTB Index Discount – STX


         Care/Service Related              Energy Related
          TXU Energy Rewards+               Authorized Dealer Network +
                                            HVAC Referral Program
          Average Bill
                                            Comfort Rewards Program
          Choose Your Own Due Date
                                            HVAC Financing
          Automatic Bank Draft
                                            Home Energy Advisor Online
          Express Pay – Online, Phone
                                            Home Surge Protection
          E-Bill
          Option 1 (outage notification)

Several new products are already available, with many others in development
Several new products are already available, with many others in development

                                                                          23
Texas Learned From Other Flawed Market Designs,
Benefiting Customers
                                                      … And Texas
                                                      … And Texas
  Other states had          …But Texas
  Other states had          …But Texas                customers
                                                      customers
  problems …                avoided them
  problems …                avoided them              benefited
                                                      benefited
   Poor boundaries           Vibrant retail &          Plant investment
   between retail &          wholesale market          decreased energy
   wholesale                                           prices
                             Allowed retail price
   Supply disconnected       adjustments (PTB)         Lower prices than
   from demand response /                              prior to deregulation
                             Attractive to new
   retail prices             generation &              Robust competition
   Limited supply            transmission projects     High customer
   development               Accommodated              switching
   Inflexible business       multiple business         New products and
   models                    models                    services
   Limited competition       Created incentive for     Improved customer
                             new entrants              service levels

The original Texas framework (SB7) has been successful, requiring only
 The original Texas framework (SB7) has been successful, requiring only
minor adjustments. Recently, the Legislature concluded no substantial
 minor adjustments. Recently, the Legislature concluded no substantial
changes were needed.
 changes were needed.
                                                                               24
Today’s Agenda
                   From                        To


   Market
   Market        Regulation             A truly competitive
Restructuring
Restructuring                           market




Texas Power
Texas Power      No customer choice     Full customer control
Restructuring
Restructuring



    TXU’s
    TXU’s        A regulated monopoly   An industrial
Transformation
Transformation                          energy company

                                                              25
How Will TXU Avoid The Pitfalls That Have Trapped Other
Former Monopolies?



“The brief booms that airlines occasionally enjoyed in the
 “The brief booms that airlines occasionally enjoyed in the
1980s and 1990s encouraged them to believe that radical
 1980s and 1990s encouraged them to believe that radical
change wasn’t necessary. Change didn’t happen fast enough
 change wasn’t necessary. Change didn’t happen fast enough
because it was always a moving target,”
 because it was always a moving target,”

Alfred Kahn, Chairman of Civil Aeronautics Board
Alfred Kahn, Chairman of Civil Aeronautics Board




                                                              26
…By Transforming From A Regulated Monopoly To An
Industrial Energy Company




                                     Market Leadership
Operational Excellence                                              Risk/Return Mindset

                                 • Superior customer service/
• Top decile throughput                                           • Strict capital allocation
                                   brand management                 discipline
• World class industrial
                                 • Customer segmentation
  production costs                                                • Risk/return restructuring
                                   and pricing
• Industry leading reliability                                    • Commodity risk
                                 • Distinctive commodity            management
• Lean corporate SG&A
                                   sourcing


                                 Performance Management
                                 •   High performance culture
                                 •   Balanced cascading scorecards
                                 •   Employee development
                                 •   Incentives linked to key value drivers
                                                                                                27
Operational Excellence Is About Bringing “Lean Principles” To
 Generation…
Lignite capacity factors                               Nuclear capacity factors
03-05; Percent                                         03-05; Percent
                                     90                Top decile    94              94
                                              6%
                                              6%                                                7%
                                                                                                7%
                             88
 Top decile
                     86                                                      90
       85
                                                            88


                                   Long term                                         Long term
          03         04     05E                              03      04      05E
                                   target                                            target
  1% improvement = $20MM EBIT                             1% improvement = $10MM EBIT

                                                           Nuclear operating expense
Lignite fuel & O&M expense
                                                           03-05; $ / MWh generated
03-05; $/ MWh generated
                                                                                                9%
                                              18%
   $16.9       $16.8
                          $15.8                                     $12.4   $12.3
                                          Top decile       $12.0
                                                                                    $11.0
                                  $14.5

                                                                                          Top decile
                                                                                    Long term
                                  Long term
                                                             03      04     05E
     03         04        05E                                                       target
                                  target
                                                         $1 per MWh improvement = $18MM EBIT28
$1 per MWh improvement = $45MM EBIT
… And Minimizing The Corporate Center

Creating an industrial corporate center…     … with lower costs
03-05; Number of employees                   03-05; $ millions


    1,746                                      370    346

                          87%                                 66%
                          87%                                 66%

                                                              125
                                                                       75
               296        235


                                                                    Long term
      03        04        05E                  03      04     05E
                                                                    target




                  TXU has focused on removing redundancies and
                   TXU has focused on removing redundancies and
                  focusing directly on value creating opportunities
                   focusing directly on value creating opportunities

                                                                                29
Market Leadership Will Result In A World-Class Customer Experience
 And An Optimized Supply Function…
Better power sourcing:                          Better customer service:
Uneconomic generation of gas fleet              Average speed of answer
03-04; GWh                                      03-05; Seconds
                                                   280
                               54%
                               54%
           3,450

                               1,580                                 115
                                                                              52
                                                               30
                                                         12                        16
                                                03 Avg Q1 05 ERCOT ERCOT Baby Leading
         Summer 03        Summer 04
                                                                         Bell fin. svc. co.
                                                     TXU       A     B
                                                Customer retention through
 Reducing retail bad debt expense
                                                innovative loyalty programs
 99-05; $ millions
                   118 121
                               95
Start of                            75-80
deregulation
                                        50-60
               49
          24
    16


    99    00   01    02   03   04 05E Target                                            30
The Risk Return Mindset Is Focused On Optimizing the Risk
Return Profile For All Key Stakeholders

                                                                                                                Retained for
                                                                                                                Investment
TXU Business Units




                     Cash
                      Flow
                                        Excess                Excess                                        Excess
                                                                                     Excess
                      from
                              “Customer”           Reinvest            Financial               Dividend
                     Oper-
                                Capital             -ment              Flexibility              Payout
                     ations
                       and
                     Asset
                                      Yes               Yes, if               Yes, until             Yes
                     Sales

                              Quality service    50% of cash        Strong Credit             Payout of         Repurchases
                              Production         returned within   Coverage ratio             30-40%           or Distributions
                              reliability        3 years           Debt/EBITDA
                                                 Minimum ROI       Debt/EV
                                                                                                      Total Payout
                                                 of 15%
                                                                                                      Cap - 75% of
                                                                                                      Operational
                                                                                                       Earnings

                                                                                                           Equity
                                                                        Debt
                                                                       Holders                             Holders




                                                                                                                            31
The Industrial Skill Set Is Underpinned By A Strong
Performance Management Culture
Reduced number of management layers…   …Implementing best in class performance
03-05; Number of layers                 management
                                 38%
     8                           38%
           6-7     6      5
                                       • Stretch targets based on best in class
                                         performance

                         Long term
     03     04    05E                  • Monthly “performance dashboards” to
                         target
                                         review financial and operational
                                         performance
…With new managers having the right
                                       • Balanced scorecards that cascade from
skills to compete
                                         top-level financials to front-line
03-05; Percent of management team
                                         operations
     0      19                 New
                   26     40
                                       • Differentiated incentive systems that
    100     81                           reward performance against key value
                   74          Old
                          60
                                         drivers

     03     04    05E    Long term     • Succession plans aimed at developing a
                         target          bench two-deep at every key position

                                                                                  32
Conclusion


  Texas electric market restructuring has been
  successful at delivering significant value to consumers
   • Access to lower prices
   • Better service
   • Innovative new products


  The “invisible hand” of the market is driving change
  and improvement in all market competitors


  Given this success…
  • Why isn’t the market garnering more attention?
  • Why haven’t other states accelerated restructuring
    efforts?
                                                            33

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energy future holindings _061405

  • 1. Texas Electric Market Restructuring A Customer Success Story C. John Wilder Chief Executive Officer June 14, 2005
  • 2. Today’s Agenda From To Market Market Regulation A truly competitive Restructuring Restructuring market Texas Power Texas Power No customer choice Full customer control Restructuring Restructuring TXU’s TXU’s A regulated monopoly An industrial Transformation Transformation energy company 1
  • 3. Over Time Restructuring Allows Customers To Capture The Benefits Of Open Markets And Competition… Efficiency Increased Increased consumer consumer value value Investment Innovation ••Over the long term open markets allocate resources better than monopolies Over the long term open markets allocate resources better than monopolies and regulators and regulators ••quot;Competition on its worst day is better than regulation on its best day.” quot;Competition on its worst day is better than regulation on its best day.” Pat Wood, FERC Chairman Pat Wood, FERC Chairman 2
  • 4. …Evidenced By The Improvements Made Across Multiple Industries Increased investment... …Efficiency... ...And innovation Percent of available airline seat US Telecom investment miles filled New cable services 93-04; $ billions 77-00; Percent 96-04; No units 71 Access to over 300 33 44% 44% 27% 27% 56 channels (from 30) 23 HDTV technology DSL (Internet broadband) Pay-per-View 93-96 97-04 77 00 Digital Video Pre- Pre- Recorder deregulation deregulation Parental controls “Markets can both price and allocate capital; not just allocate,” “Markets can both price and allocate capital; not just allocate,” Financial Times Financial Times Source: British telecom, O&D survey 3
  • 5. These Improvements Have Led To Lower Prices For Consumers… Crashing prices: Airline prices Cheap calls: US long distance Trucking prices (truckload) 79-05; Index of real prices 80-05; Index of real 67-05; Index of real $/ton (1979=100) revenue/minute (1980=100) (1967=100) 100 100 100 45% 86% 37% 45% 86% 37% 63 55 14 67 79 80 Today Today Today A competitive market forces the efficiency gains through to the customer in A competitive market forces the efficiency gains through to the customer in the form of lower prices and value added services the form of lower prices and value added services 4
  • 6. …And Difficult Transitions For The Former Monopolies: Declining Financial Flexibility… AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC D Bankruptcies 04 90 American 04 90 04 90 04 90 Delta 96 Airlines United 90 04 90 04 AT&T 90 04 90 04 69 Telecom Qwest 90 04 90 04 MCI 90 02 90 02 Yellow 90 04 90 04 37 Trucking Ryder 90 04 90 04 5
  • 7. …And Poor Returns Poor returns: Annual total return to shareholders (CAGR) 83-03; Percent 90% 13.0 6.9 5.7 5.8 3.5 3.1 Average -2.0 -5.1 -6.3 S&P 500 American Delta United AT&T Qwest MCI Ryder Yellow Airlines Telecom Trucking There is not a single industrial deregulated incumbent that has outperformed There is not a single industrial deregulated incumbent that has outperformed the broader market over the last 20 years the broader market over the last 20 years Source: Compustat 6
  • 8. Today’s Agenda From To Market Market Regulation A truly competitive Restructuring Restructuring market Texas Power Texas Power No customer choice Full customer control Restructuring Restructuring TXU’s TXU’s A regulated monopoly An industrial Transformation Transformation energy company 7
  • 9. The Texas Electric Market Is One Of The Largest In The World And Now One Of Only A Few Competitive Retail Markets Electricity consumption Competitive retail 02; TWh 3,660 1,457 971 780 513 510 487 415 344 352 320 267 218 196 United Japan Germany Canada Brazil Texas Spain States China Russia India France United South Australia Kingdom Korea Texas is the 11th biggest market in the world Texas is the 11th biggest market in the world Source: EIA 8
  • 10. Texas Restructuring Has “Unbundled” The Electric Power Value Chain And Restructured Many Activities Competitive Transmission Generation Distribution Restructuring Generation Transmission Retail Distribution 59 active retailers 67 generators 5 T&D Examples ANP AEP Central Cirro Calpine AEP North Constellation Constellation CenterPoint Direct Energy Exelon TNMP Entergy FPL TXU Electric Delivery First Choice Sempra GEXA Texas Genco Green Mountain TXU Power Reliant Energy TXU Energy Restructuring has brought a variety of new players into the market Restructuring has brought a variety of new players into the market 9
  • 11. Competition Has Led To The Formation Of Many Different Business Models Where companies participate …to many different models: Participate in… Examples All segments TXU Corp GTDR Texas evolved from an T&D only CenterPoint TD G R integrated model… AEP Central/North Genera- Trans- Distri- Retail Retail only Reliant Energy R G T D tion mission bution Green Mountain 5 regulated, integrated companies Retail and Centrica (Direct) G R T D generation Calpine Constellation FPL/Gexa (pending) Generation Texas Genco G T D R only ••Only time will tell which business models will succeed Only time will tell which business models will succeed ••As the market continues to mature, the winning business model may continue to change As the market continues to mature, the winning business model may continue to change 10
  • 12. ERCOT Was Designed So That Customers Could Capture The Benefits Of Open Markets And Competition What Texas Did Right How Customers Benefited Significant investment in Simple bilateral market state of the art Expedited permitting and Wholesale Wholesale technology (efficient interconnection CCGT) Improved operational performance PTB provided headroom Many competitive options and mechanism to pass Lower prices than Retail Retail on commodity changes under continued regulation Low barriers for entry New products (loyalty Immediate competitive programs, “green power”) pricing for customers The Texas Legislature correctly designed the retail framework to: The Texas Legislature correctly designed the retail framework to: •• Ensure Texans have access to reliable electricity at competitive prices and Ensure Texans have access to reliable electricity at competitive prices and improved customer service improved customer service •• Foster competitive behavior and encourage entrepreneurship, while Foster competitive behavior and encourage entrepreneurship, while continuing to protect consumers continuing to protect consumers 11
  • 13. Restructuring Spurred Massive Generation Investment In The ERCOT Market… In rate base Not in rate base Capacity additions 90-04; GW1 90-97 Additions= 6 GW 98-04 Additions= 26 GW 6.6 PURA 95 SB7 5.7 5.5 (wholesale (retail 4.4 competition) competition) 2.9 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 Year 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 Reserve Margin (%) 27 29 27 23 23 17 16 9 8 7 12 28 35 32 33 From 98-04, more than $15 billion was invested in generation infrastructure – From 98-04, more than $15 billion was invested in generation infrastructure – none of which was in the rate base none of which was in the rate base 1 GW = 1000 MW (1 MW serves approximately 1000 homes) 12 Source: Energy Velocity; NERC
  • 14. …Bringing Efficient CCGT Capacity Into The ERCOT Generation Portfolio Average demand ERCOT generation portfolio: Average variable cost1 98-04; $/MWh Internal 98 combustion 200 Gas/oil 150 ••Restructuring led Restructuring led 100 Wind to the investment Coal to the investment Nuclear of over $15 billion of over $15 billion 50 Average price ~ $80 and the addition of and the addition of 0 the 22GW of the 22GW of 0 20 40 60 80 efficient CCGT efficient CCGT capacity 04 capacity Internal ••Overall the total 200 Overall the total combustion market is receiving market is receiving Gas/oil 150 22 GW of new less than an 8% less than an 8% efficient capacity Wind Coal return on capital 100 return on capital Nuclear CCGT 50 Average price ~ $45 0 0 20 40 60 80 Cumulative Capacity 1 Based on a $6.00/MMBtu gas price GW 13 Source: Platt’s PowerDat
  • 15. …Leading To A Significant Reduction In Market Heat Rates ERCOT heat rate1 cycle 98-04; MMBtu/MWh 16 CCGT reinvestment economics 14 12 10 8 6 4 CCGT marginal heat rate 2 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 •• New capacity has led to a 40% increase in the efficiency of the marginal unit New capacity has led to a 40% increase in the efficiency of the marginal unit •• This would be similar to improving average automobile gas mileage from 20 This would be similar to improving average automobile gas mileage from 20 mpg to 35 mpg mpg to 35 mpg 1 Heat rate is a measure of the efficiency of converting a unit of fuel (MMBtu) into a unit of electricity (MWh); lower heat rates implies higher efficiency. Based on day ahead electricity and gas prices. Source: MegaWatt Daily, Gas Daily 14
  • 16. Competition Has Forced Marginal Pricing, Preventing Most Generators From Receiving Full Compensation For Capital Invested Capital recovery Fixed cost Full reinvestment economics1 Variable cost 052; $ / MWH 72 66 16 56 Today’s prices2 3 48 Forward price 54 range3 38 24 53 8 14 16 12 4 0 Wind w/o PTC Nuclear Coal CCGT Similar to other competitive markets pricing is bid down to the variable Similar to other competitive markets pricing is bid down to the variable economics of the marginal unit economics of the marginal unit 1 Wind capacity factor=40%, Nuclear=90%, Coal=90%, CCGT=60% 2 Assumes $7.50 / MMBtu natural gas prices and 7x24 Heatrate of 8 MMBtu/MWh 3 Assumes range of $4.50-$5.50 / MMBtu natural gas prices and 7x24 Heatrate of 8-9 MMBtu/MWh 15 Source: EIA, Henwood
  • 17. ERCOT Was Designed So That Customers Could Capture The Benefits Of Open Markets And Competition What Texas Did Right How Customers Benefited Significant investment in Simple bilateral market state of the art Wholesale Expedited permitting and Wholesale technology (efficient interconnection CCGT) Improved operational performance PTB provided headroom Many competitive options and mechanism to pass Lower prices than under Retail Retail on commodity changes continued regulation Low barriers for entry New products (loyalty Immediate competitive programs, “green power”) pricing for customers The Texas Legislature correctly designed the retail framework to: The Texas Legislature correctly designed the retail framework to: •• Ensure Texans have access to reliable electricity at competitive prices and Ensure Texans have access to reliable electricity at competitive prices and improved customer service improved customer service •• Foster competitive behavior and encourage entrepreneurship, while Foster competitive behavior and encourage entrepreneurship, while continuing to protect consumers continuing to protect consumers 16
  • 18. Customers Have Already Begun To Reap The Benefits Of Competition… Average residential prices1 Average large business prices1 02-04; $/MWh 02-04; $/MWh 15% 20% 15% 20% 93 79 66 53 If regulation Competitive If regulation Competitive continued continued ••Even with historically high natural gas prices, customers have benefited Even with historically high natural gas prices, customers have benefited from access to lower electricity prices than they would have experienced from access to lower electricity prices than they would have experienced under regulation under regulation 1 Competitive Residential price based on 15% discount to TXU Energy PTB as currently offered by market competitors, e.g., Cirro (14.6%); Competitive large business rates include 10% wholesale gross up and 5% net margin; Regulated world assumes 9.6 GW added capacity in the rate base (as opposed to 22GW actually built) at a cost of $600/kw, O&M costs approximately $36/kw-yr resulting in an average cost of $127/kw-yr in the rate base Source: TXU Energy, ECOM model 17
  • 19. … Giving Customers In Texas Access To Lower Prices Than Before Restructuring Change in best available price Dec 01 – Dec 04; Percent 180 101 25.2 8.4 7.5 3.7 -1.2 -1 -3.2 -3 -6.9 North Colorado Arizona Oklahoma Arkansas Gasoline Texas Houston Louisiana Utah New Natural gas Mexico Competitive providers have used efficiency Competitive providers have used efficiency to combat higher purchased power costs to combat higher purchased power costs Source: Texas PUC, EIA 18
  • 20. Electricity Prices Have Increased Much Slower Than Inflation And Represent A Smaller Amount Of Disposable Income Change in prices Change in use of disposable income 90-04; Percent 90-04; Percent change 45 32% 62% 62% 24% 4% 3% 0% 17 -10% -13% -21% Recreation Automobiles Gasoline Electricity Consumer Residential Medical Housing Food Clothing Price electricity Index Efficiency in technology and operations has reduced the cost of electricity on Efficiency in technology and operations has reduced the cost of electricity on a real basis a real basis Source: EIA, Department of Commerce 19
  • 21. Significant Switching Highlights Texas As The Only Truly Competitive Residential Retail Electricity Market In The U.S. Significant competition: Net incumbent switch rates May 05; Percent of load 73 72 28 14 4 Large Small and Residential Local Long distance Business Medium telephone 3 3 years after Business years after restructuring restructuring ERCOT retail switching The only true market: Net residential incumbent switch rates Feb 05; Percent of load1 28 8 7 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 TX DC NY PA MD OH MA CT ME CA 1 Texas updated as of May ’05 based on ERCOT data; Ohio excludes load attributable to municipal aggregation 20 Source: KEMA, FCC, CERA
  • 22. ERCOT Accounts for Nearly 80% of US Residential Switching Residential switching by state2 US Residential retail sales1 2004; 100% ~ 38 TWh 2004; 100% = 1,293 TWh All other markets3 ERCOT ERCOT 8% New York 9% 9% Pennsylvania 4% 78% 92% Rest of US While ERCOT is only 8% of total electric sales in the US, it comprises 78% of While ERCOT is only 8% of total electric sales in the US, it comprises 78% of residential switching across the United States residential switching across the United States 1 Based on data from EIA; ERCOT website 2 Based on data from KEMA – 2004 Restructuring Review; state PUC websites; excludes load in Ohio attributed to municipal aggregation 3 Includes AZ, CA, CT, DC, DE, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MT, NH, NJ, NV, OH, OR, RI, VA 21
  • 23. Texas Customers Receive Superior Customer Service, Even When Benchmarked Against More Mature Industries… Average speed of answer 03-05; Seconds 489 280 96% 98% 96% 98% 52 12 16 12 03 Avg Q1 05 Baby Bell National April 04 Oct 04 telephone financial TXU Energy ERCOT Competitor company svcs. co. While TXU Energy took the lead in improving call center operations, a major While TXU Energy took the lead in improving call center operations, a major competitor soon followed – exactly what you would expect in a competitive competitor soon followed – exactly what you would expect in a competitive market market Source: TXU 22
  • 24. …And Will Reap The Benefits Of Innovative New Products Existing Product Offerings Commodity Related Price To Beat (PTB) – NTX PTB Index Discount – STX Care/Service Related Energy Related TXU Energy Rewards+ Authorized Dealer Network + HVAC Referral Program Average Bill Comfort Rewards Program Choose Your Own Due Date HVAC Financing Automatic Bank Draft Home Energy Advisor Online Express Pay – Online, Phone Home Surge Protection E-Bill Option 1 (outage notification) Several new products are already available, with many others in development Several new products are already available, with many others in development 23
  • 25. Texas Learned From Other Flawed Market Designs, Benefiting Customers … And Texas … And Texas Other states had …But Texas Other states had …But Texas customers customers problems … avoided them problems … avoided them benefited benefited Poor boundaries Vibrant retail & Plant investment between retail & wholesale market decreased energy wholesale prices Allowed retail price Supply disconnected adjustments (PTB) Lower prices than from demand response / prior to deregulation Attractive to new retail prices generation & Robust competition Limited supply transmission projects High customer development Accommodated switching Inflexible business multiple business New products and models models services Limited competition Created incentive for Improved customer new entrants service levels The original Texas framework (SB7) has been successful, requiring only The original Texas framework (SB7) has been successful, requiring only minor adjustments. Recently, the Legislature concluded no substantial minor adjustments. Recently, the Legislature concluded no substantial changes were needed. changes were needed. 24
  • 26. Today’s Agenda From To Market Market Regulation A truly competitive Restructuring Restructuring market Texas Power Texas Power No customer choice Full customer control Restructuring Restructuring TXU’s TXU’s A regulated monopoly An industrial Transformation Transformation energy company 25
  • 27. How Will TXU Avoid The Pitfalls That Have Trapped Other Former Monopolies? “The brief booms that airlines occasionally enjoyed in the “The brief booms that airlines occasionally enjoyed in the 1980s and 1990s encouraged them to believe that radical 1980s and 1990s encouraged them to believe that radical change wasn’t necessary. Change didn’t happen fast enough change wasn’t necessary. Change didn’t happen fast enough because it was always a moving target,” because it was always a moving target,” Alfred Kahn, Chairman of Civil Aeronautics Board Alfred Kahn, Chairman of Civil Aeronautics Board 26
  • 28. …By Transforming From A Regulated Monopoly To An Industrial Energy Company Market Leadership Operational Excellence Risk/Return Mindset • Superior customer service/ • Top decile throughput • Strict capital allocation brand management discipline • World class industrial • Customer segmentation production costs • Risk/return restructuring and pricing • Industry leading reliability • Commodity risk • Distinctive commodity management • Lean corporate SG&A sourcing Performance Management • High performance culture • Balanced cascading scorecards • Employee development • Incentives linked to key value drivers 27
  • 29. Operational Excellence Is About Bringing “Lean Principles” To Generation… Lignite capacity factors Nuclear capacity factors 03-05; Percent 03-05; Percent 90 Top decile 94 94 6% 6% 7% 7% 88 Top decile 86 90 85 88 Long term Long term 03 04 05E 03 04 05E target target 1% improvement = $20MM EBIT 1% improvement = $10MM EBIT Nuclear operating expense Lignite fuel & O&M expense 03-05; $ / MWh generated 03-05; $/ MWh generated 9% 18% $16.9 $16.8 $15.8 $12.4 $12.3 Top decile $12.0 $11.0 $14.5 Top decile Long term Long term 03 04 05E 03 04 05E target target $1 per MWh improvement = $18MM EBIT28 $1 per MWh improvement = $45MM EBIT
  • 30. … And Minimizing The Corporate Center Creating an industrial corporate center… … with lower costs 03-05; Number of employees 03-05; $ millions 1,746 370 346 87% 66% 87% 66% 125 75 296 235 Long term 03 04 05E 03 04 05E target TXU has focused on removing redundancies and TXU has focused on removing redundancies and focusing directly on value creating opportunities focusing directly on value creating opportunities 29
  • 31. Market Leadership Will Result In A World-Class Customer Experience And An Optimized Supply Function… Better power sourcing: Better customer service: Uneconomic generation of gas fleet Average speed of answer 03-04; GWh 03-05; Seconds 280 54% 54% 3,450 1,580 115 52 30 12 16 03 Avg Q1 05 ERCOT ERCOT Baby Leading Summer 03 Summer 04 Bell fin. svc. co. TXU A B Customer retention through Reducing retail bad debt expense innovative loyalty programs 99-05; $ millions 118 121 95 Start of 75-80 deregulation 50-60 49 24 16 99 00 01 02 03 04 05E Target 30
  • 32. The Risk Return Mindset Is Focused On Optimizing the Risk Return Profile For All Key Stakeholders Retained for Investment TXU Business Units Cash Flow Excess Excess Excess Excess from “Customer” Reinvest Financial Dividend Oper- Capital -ment Flexibility Payout ations and Asset Yes Yes, if Yes, until Yes Sales Quality service 50% of cash Strong Credit Payout of Repurchases Production returned within Coverage ratio 30-40% or Distributions reliability 3 years Debt/EBITDA Minimum ROI Debt/EV Total Payout of 15% Cap - 75% of Operational Earnings Equity Debt Holders Holders 31
  • 33. The Industrial Skill Set Is Underpinned By A Strong Performance Management Culture Reduced number of management layers… …Implementing best in class performance 03-05; Number of layers management 38% 8 38% 6-7 6 5 • Stretch targets based on best in class performance Long term 03 04 05E • Monthly “performance dashboards” to target review financial and operational performance …With new managers having the right • Balanced scorecards that cascade from skills to compete top-level financials to front-line 03-05; Percent of management team operations 0 19 New 26 40 • Differentiated incentive systems that 100 81 reward performance against key value 74 Old 60 drivers 03 04 05E Long term • Succession plans aimed at developing a target bench two-deep at every key position 32
  • 34. Conclusion Texas electric market restructuring has been successful at delivering significant value to consumers • Access to lower prices • Better service • Innovative new products The “invisible hand” of the market is driving change and improvement in all market competitors Given this success… • Why isn’t the market garnering more attention? • Why haven’t other states accelerated restructuring efforts? 33