SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 68
Baixar para ler offline
ERCOT Competitive Market Assessment
  and Overview of TXU Energy Retail
            Organization




             Overview
             January 2005
Safe Harbor Statement



   This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to
   various risks and uncertainties. Discussion of risks and uncertainties that could
   cause actual results to differ materially from management's current projections,
   forecasts, estimates and expectations is contained in the company's SEC filings.
   In addition to the risks and uncertainties set forth in the company's SEC filings,
   the forward-looking statements in this presentation could be affected by the
   ability of the company to implement the initiatives that are part of its
   restructuring, operational improvement and cost reduction program, and the
   terms under which the company executes those initiatives.




                                                                                        1
TXU Strategy
Competitive Market Assessment




           January 2005
Today’s Discussion
                     Key questions

                      How has restructuring impacted
 Impact of
  Impact of
                      other industries?
 restructuring in
  restructuring in
 other industries
  other industries


                      How has restructuring impacted
 ERCOT market
  ERCOT market        the Texas wholesale and retail
 restructuring
  restructuring       markets?



                      What are TXU’s strategic priorities?
 Implications for
  Implications for
 TXU
  TXU


                                                             2
Over Time Restructuring Allows Customers To Capture The
Benefits Of Open Markets And Competition
                                     Efficiency




                                     Increased
                                      Increased
                                     consumer
                                      consumer
                                       value
                                        value

                Investment                               Innovation
••Over the long term open markets allocate resources better than monopolies and
   Over the long term open markets allocate resources better than monopolies and
  regulators
   regulators
••quot;Competition on its worst day is better than regulation on its best day.“ -Pat Wood,
   quot;Competition on its worst day is better than regulation on its best day.“ -Pat Wood,
  FERC Chairman
   FERC Chairman
••“Markets can both price and allocate capital; not just allocate,” Financial Times
   “Markets can both price and allocate capital; not just allocate,” Financial Times
                                                                                          3
Across Multiple Industries, Market Restructuring Has Led
To Increased Investment…


                                                   US Natural gas                                US Power generation
US Telecom
                                                   86-02; $ billions                             95-04E; $ billions
                                 86%                                            104%
93-04; $ billions                                                                                                    480%
                                 86%                                            104%                                 480%
                                                                                                40
50                                              14
                                                12
40
                                                                                                30
                                                10
30                                               8
                                                                                                20
                                                 6
20
                                                 4                                              10
10
                                                 2
 0                                               0                                               0
     93    95   97    99    01    03                                                                  95        97   99   01    03
                                                     86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
                                                                                                           Wholesale
          Telecom                                    Order
                                                                                                           competition
          Act of 96                                  436/500
                                                                                                           starts to flourish


            Free markets provide the incentives for investment in infrastructure
             Free markets provide the incentives for investment in infrastructure
                                      and technology
                                       and technology



                                                                                                                                     4
 Source: Company Annual Reports, 10-Ks, CIBC, Morgan Stanley, ITU, Gas Facts 2003, AGA, 2004, Energy Velocity
…Efficiency Gains…

                                                                                    Leaner cost structure:
Smaller workforce:        Higher Utilization: Percent of                            Interstate trucking
British Telecom employees available airline seat miles filled                       operating costs
84-04; Thousands          77-00; Percent                                            77-93; Real $/mile (2004)


                                                                   27%
                                                                   27%                 5.8
                                                                               71
     240
                                                                                                 76%
                           58%                            56                                     76%
                           58%

                           100
                                                                                                     1.4



    84                      04                                                         77            93
                                                        77                     00
                                                                                    Pre-
  Pre-                                               Pre-
                                                                                    deregulation
  deregulation                                       deregulation

       A competitive market provides clear incentives and accountability for
       A competitive market provides clear incentives and accountability for
                             constant improvement
                              constant improvement


                                                                                                                5
 Source: British Telecom, Airline Form 41, Transportation Technical Services
…And Innovation Over Time
               New products/technology                   Timeframe-years
               post restructuring                        after restructuring
                Increase from 30-300 channels
                HDTV technology
 Cable
 Cable          Internet broadband                          3-5
                Pay-per-view
                Digital Video Recorder (DVR)
                Parental controls
                Call waiting
                Caller ID
 Telecom
 Telecom        3-way calling                               5-15
                Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)
                Cell phones
                Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)

                Swing option pricing
                Horizontal drilling
 Natural Gas
 Natural Gas                                                10-20
                More flexible storage
                LNG liquefaction technology advances

                Frequent flier programs
                Ticketless travel
 Airlines
 Airlines                                                   5-15
                Online reservation (Sabre)
                Regional jets with turbofan technology
                Air limos                                                  6
Restructuring Has Resulted In Lower Prices For Customers
  Across Multiple Industries…

  Airline retail prices                                      US long distance                           Trucking prices (truckload)
  Real yield index (1979=100)                                80-02; Index of Real                       67-97; Index of Real $/ton
  79-94; No units                                            revenue/minute (1980=100)                  (1967=100)

120                                                                                            120
                                                      100
110
                                                                                                                                37%
                                                                                                                                37%
                                                                                               100
                                      45%                                          86%
                                      45%                                          86%
100                                                    80
                                                                                                   80
  90
                                                       60
  80                                                                                               60
  70                                                   40
                                                                                                   40
  60
                                                       20                                          20
  50
                                                                                                    0
  40                                                     0
                                                                                                        67   72   77   82   87   92   97
       79   81    83    85    87    89   91    93            80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
                                                                                                                  1980 Motor
                                                                  Long
   Airline                                                                                                        Carrier Act
                                                                distance
restructuring
                                                              restructuring



        A competitive market forces the efficiency gains through to the customer in
        A competitive market forces the efficiency gains through to the customer in
                    the form of lower prices and value added services
                     the form of lower prices and value added services
                                                                                                                                       7
       Source: Airline Form 41, FCC, Transportation Technical Services
…Including Other Restructured Electric Markets
    Retail electric prices
    Real price index (1990=100)1
    90-03; No units
      120                                                Australia residential
      110

      100
                                                                                                      Price reduction
        90
                                                                                                      12%
        80

                                                            UK residential
        70
                                                                                                      33%
        60

        50
             90          92           94            96           98           00           02


           UK                      Australia
      restructuring              restructuring



     In these foreign markets it took 3 – 5 years to see absolute price decreases
      In these foreign markets it took 3 – 5 years to see absolute price decreases
1 Australia price index: 1994=100
                                                                                                                                8
Source: UK Department of Trade and Industry, Energy Supply Association of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics CPI data
Today’s Discussion
                     Key questions

                      How has restructuring impacted
 Impact of
  Impact of
                      other industries?
 restructuring in
  restructuring in
 other industries
  other industries


                      How has restructuring impacted
 ERCOT market
  ERCOT market        the Texas wholesale and retail
 restructuring
  restructuring       markets?



                      What are TXU’s strategic priorities?
 Implications for
  Implications for
 TXU
  TXU


                                                             9
Utilities Historically Have Been Integrated Monopolies
Across The Value Chain


Generation                  Transmission               Distribution


   Produce power           Transmit power over         Deliver power locally
                           long distances              to customers




              Generating   Transmission   Transmission Distribution Customers
              station      wires          substation   wires
  Fuel


North Texas                                 TXU/TNMP
Houston                                    HL&P/TNMP
South Texas                                   CP&L
West Texas                                 WTU/TNMP
                                                                                10
Texas Utility Restructuring Has “Unbundled” The Electric
Power Value Chain And Restructured Many Activities
                                                                                Competitive


                                       Transmission
                 Generation                                    Distribution

                                         Restructuring


           Generation           Transmission                            Retail
                                                     Distribution

                                                                        59 active retailers
           67 Generators                    5 T&D
Examples    ANP                                AEP Central                Cirro
            Calpine                            AEP North                  Constellation
            Constellation                      CenterPoint                Direct Energy
            Exelon                             TNMP                       Entergy
            FPL                                TXU Electric Delivery      First Choice
            Sempra                                                        GEXA
            Texas Genco                                                   Green Mountain
            TXU Power                                                     Reliant Energy
                                                                          TXU Energy
           Restructuring has brought aavariety of new players into the market
            Restructuring has brought variety of new players into the market
                                                                                          11
Companies Have Actively Chosen Different Business Models
To Participate In ERCOT…                      Where companies participate

                                             Model            Segments Examples
                                                               T    D
                                             Participate in             TXU Corp
                                                               G    R
                                             all segments
From an integrated model . . .
                                             Participate in             CenterPoint
                                                               T    D
 Genera-    Trans-     Distribu-                               G    R
                                    Retail   T&D only                   AEP Central/North
 tion       mission    tion

                                             Participate in             Reliant Energy
                                                               T    D
                                                               G    R
                                             retail only
. . . to many functional combinations                                   Green Mountain
                                                                        Gexa
                                             Participate in             Centrica/Direct
                                                                T   D
     Transmission       Distribution                            G   R
                                             retail and                 Energy
                                             generation                 Calpine
                                                                        Constellation
      Generation           Retail
                                             Participate in             Texas Genco
                                                               T    D
                                                               G    R
                                             generation                 FPL
                                             only
••Only time will tell which business models will succeed
   Only time will tell which business models will succeed
••As the market continues to mature, the winning business model may continue to change
   As the market continues to mature, the winning business model may continue to change
                                                                                      12
…As Evidenced By Recent Transactions
                                                                                                 CenterPoint
                                                           CenterPoint
                                                             T     D                                T   D
                         CenterPoint
                           T     D
Reliant Energy                                             Texas Genco                           GC Power Acquisition
                           G
 T     D                                                     G                                      G
                                        TGN mothballs
 G     R                                2.5 GW             Generation business spun off          Texas Genco (14 GW) sold to
                                                           from T&D                              private investor group


                                                        Reliant does not exercise option
                         Reliant Energy                                                          Reliant Energy
                                                        to buy TGN from CenterPoint
     IPP’s build           R                                                                        R
     over 20 GW          Retail business spun
      of CCGT            off from T&D and
                                                           AEP                                   AEP
                         generation businesses
      capacity
                                                             T     D                                T   D
       (98-02)                                                                                                  Over 59
                         AEP                                             AEP retains large retail                active
                                                                         and wholesale customers
                           T     D                                                                              retailers
                           G     R
AEP                                                        Sempra                                                  in
                                                                                                 Sempra
                         AEP mothballs 16 gas                                                                   ERCOT
 T     D                                                     G                                      G
                         fired plants (4 GW)
 G     R                                                   • AEP sells STP stake (0.6 GW)
                                                           • Sells non-nuclear portfolio to
                                                             Sempra/Carlyle/ Riverstone (4 GW)
                         Direct Energy                                                           Centrica/Direct Energy
                           R                                                                        G   R
                         AEP sells 850,000 residential and small                                 Centrica buys Bastrop
                         business retail customers to Centrica                                   power plant

TXU Corp                                                                                         TXU Corp
                                                                          TXU Power
                                         TXU Power pursues sale of
 T     D                                                                                            T   D
              TXU Power sells Handley                                     mothballs 4GW of
                                         other plants
              and Mt Creek plants
 G     R                                                                  generation
                                                                                                    G   R                   13
ERCOT Was Designed So That Customers Could Capture
The Benefits Of Open Markets And Competition...
                  Implementation                 Effect

                                                  Large infusion of capital
                    Established bilateral
 Wholesale          market between                Investment in state of the
 Wholesale
                                                  art technology (efficient
                    generators and retailers
                                                  CCGT)
                    Expedited permitting and
                                                  Improved operational
                    interconnection for new
                                                  performance (5%-8%
                    build
                                                  improvement in
                                                  utilization)
                    PTB intended to provide       Improved customer
                    sufficient headroom to        service
 Retail
 Retail
                    spur competition              Large number of
                    Low barriers for retail       competitors (~60)
                    certification                 New products (“Green
                    Immediate competitive         Power”, outage
                    pricing for large business    notification, online
                    customers                     billing)
Competition has already spurred investment, increased efficiency and should
Competition has already spurred investment, increased efficiency and should
  continue to encourage innovation and increase value to the consumer
   continue to encourage innovation and increase value to the consumer
                                                                           14
Restructuring Spurred Massive Generation Investment In
  The ERCOT Market…                           In rate base
                                                                                                   Not in rate base
 Capacity additions
 90-04; GW1
                  90-97 Additions= 6 GW                                               98-04 Additions= 26 GW

                                                                                                   6.6
                                              PURA 95                   SB7                                  5.7
                                                                                             5.5
                                              (wholesale                (retail
                                                                                                                      4.4
                                              competition)              competition)

                                                                                                                            2.9
                    1.7
                                            1.1
                                                    1.0      0.8                       0.7
                                    0.6                                   0.5
                                                                   0.4
                            0.2                                                 0.2

  Year               90      91      92      93         94   95    96     97    98      99   00     01        02      03    04
  Reserve
  Margin (%)         27      29      27      23         23   17    16      9    8       7    12     28        35      32    33


    From 98-04, more than $15 billion was invested in generation infrastructure –
     From 98-04, more than $15 billion was invested in generation infrastructure –
                         none of which was in the rate base
                          none of which was in the rate base

1 GW = 1000 MW (1 MW serves approximately 1000 homes)
                                                                                                                             15
Source: Energy Velocity; NERC
…Bringing Efficient CCGT Capacity Into The ERCOT
  Generation Portfolio…                      Average demand
  ERCOT generation portfolio: Average variable cost1
  98-04; $ / MWh
                                                     Internal
        98
                                                   combustion
 200
                                             Gas/oil
 150

 100 Wind                   Coal
        Nuclear
  50                                                                                        Restructuring led to
                                                       Average price ~ $80                   Restructuring led to
                                                                                            the investment of
                                                                                             the investment of
    0
                                                                                            over $15 billion and
                                                                                             over $15 billion and
        0                    20                    40                60                80
                                                                                            the addition of the
                                                                                             the addition of the
        04
                                                                                            22GW of efficient
                                                                                             22GW of efficient
                                                                            Internal
                                                                                            CCGT capacity
 200
                                                                                             CCGT capacity
                                                                          combustion
                                                                Gas/oil
 150                                    22 GW of new
                                      efficient capacity
        Wind           Coal
 100
             Nuclear                       CCGT
   50
                                                             Average price ~ $45
    0
        0                    20                    40                60                80
                                      Cumulative Capacity
1 Based on a $6.00/ MMBtu gas price
                                             GW                                                                 16
Source: Platt’s PowerDat
…Leading To A Significant Reduction In Market
  Heat Rates...
  ERCOT heat rate1 cycle
  98-04; MMBtu/MWh

      16
                                                                                      CCGT reinvestment economics
      14
      12
      10
         8
         6
         4
                            CCGT marginal heat rate
         2
         0
                      98                   99                   00                   01                   02                   03                   04

    ••   New capacity has led to a 40% increase in the efficiency of the marginal unit
          New capacity has led to a 40% increase in the efficiency of the marginal unit
    ••   This would be akin to improving average automobile gas mileage from 20
          This would be akin to improving average automobile gas mileage from 20
         mpg to 35 mpg
          mpg to 35 mpg

1 Heat rate is a measure of the efficiency of converting a unit of fuel (MMBtu) into a unit of electricity (MWh); lower heat rates implies higher efficiency
                                                                                                                                                               17
Source: MegaWatt Daily, Gas Daily
…And The Reduced Production From Conventional Gas
  Units…
  Annual production                       Total available capacity
  98-03; TWh                              98-04; GW


               90                                    30
                                                             33%
                                                             33%
                21
Other
                                                     8
                       63%
                       63%                                           20
AEP             15                                   4
                                                                     7
CNP             22           33                      8
                                                                     1
                              9                                      5
                              4
TXU             32            8                      10
                                                                     7
Power                        12
                98           03                      98              04


        Over 10 GW of conventional gas generation has been mothballed or retired
        Over 10 GW of conventional gas generation has been mothballed or retired
        Almost $8 billion dollars has migrated away from these plants
        Almost $8 billion dollars has migrated away from these plants


                                                                               18
Sources: RDI
…Delivering Significant Savings To The Largest Power
    Purchasers And To Competitive Customers Through REPs
    Implied wholesale prices
                                                                           44%
                                                                           44%
    04E; $/MWh                                                      82

                                                                                    45
                                       32




                             99 heat rates at             99 heat rates at   04 heat rate at 04
                              99 gas prices                04 gas prices        gas prices

Gas price ($/MMBtu):                   $2.271                    $5.832           $5.832
Heat rate (MMBtu/MWh):                   143                       143             7.84


      Wholesale power prices may have been more than 40% higher if not for the influx of
      Wholesale power prices may have been more than 40% higher if not for the influx of
                                  significant new capacity
                                   significant new capacity

1 Based on 99 average Henry Hub spot market price
2 Based on Henry Hub spot market average (January 2004-November 9, 2004)
3 Assumes heat rate = 14 MMBtu/MWh (99 ERCOT heat rate)
4 Assumes heat rate = 7.8 MMBtu/MWh (04 actual heat rate)
                                                                                                  19
Sources: Bloomberg, MegaWatt Daily
ERCOT Was Designed So That Customers Could Capture
The Benefits Of Open Markets And Competition...
                  Implementation                 Effect

                                                  Large infusion of capital
                    Established bilateral
 Wholesale          market between                Investment in state of the
 Wholesale
                                                  art technology (efficient
                    generators and retailers
                                                  CCGT)
                    Expedited permitting and
                                                  Improved operational
                    interconnection for new
                                                  performance (5%-8%
                    build
                                                  improvement in
                                                  utilization)
                    PTB intended to provide       Improved customer
                    sufficient headroom to        service
 Retail
 Retail             spur competition              Large number of
                    Low barriers for retail       competitors (~60)
                    certification                 New products (“Green
                    Immediate competitive         Power”, outage
                    pricing for large business    notification, online
                    customers                     billing)
Competition has already spurred investment, increased efficiency and should
Competition has already spurred investment, increased efficiency and should
  continue to encourage innovation and increase value to the consumer
   continue to encourage innovation and increase value to the consumer
                                                                           20
ERCOT Has Seen Significant Switching Across All
  Customer Classes
  Total new entrant market share
  June 04; Percent of load

                                                                       While 20% of the market is
              74%                                                      currently served by a new
                                                                        entrant, up to 33% have
                                     45%                                actively made a choice1

                                                            20%
                                                                                                        14%
                                                                                   4%


             Large                Small and            Residential                Local           Long distance
            Business               Medium                                     telephone 3           3 years after
                                  Business                                     years after         restructuring
                                                                             restructuring

                     ERCOT retail switching


     ERCOT has seen higher switching levels than other restructured industries
     ERCOT has seen higher switching levels than other restructured industries
1 Based on TXU incumbent territory; 575,000 customers served by a new entrant; approximately 100,000 customers have switched back
                                                                                                                                    21
Source: PUC, KEMA, TXU, FCC
Texas Is Leading The Nation In New Entrant Market Share…

Total new entrant large business market share1
June 04; Percent of load

           74


                          56

                                         48
                                                        39             38
                                                                            31
                                                                                 26
                                                                                      21
                                                                                           13




           TX             ME             NY             DC             MD   MA   CA   OH   PA


        Large business customers quickly took advantage of competitive rates
         Large business customers quickly took advantage of competitive rates

1 Figures represent an average of Commercial and Industrial switch rates
Source: PUC, KEMA
                                                                                                22
…And Residential Retail Competition

 Total new entrant residential market share
 June 04; Percent of load



           20




                         10
                                       7
                                                    6
                                                                 3
                                                                               2             2            2            1             1

                                                                                   1
            TX           DC           NY           PA           MD            OH           MA            CT           ME             CA


       ERCOT has the most active restructured residential retail market in the US
       ERCOT has the most active restructured residential retail market in the US

1 Excludes 17% attributable to municipal aggregation (based on CERA estimate) because municipal aggregation is not customer choice
Source: PUC, KEMA, CERA                                                                                                                   23
Although Residential Switching Trails Large Customer
Switching, It Remains in Line With Other Successful
Restructured Markets…
Incumbent market share1
Years since restructuring; Percent


                                                                      Local
         100%
                                                                      telephone
           90%

           80%
                                                             Texas3

           70%
                                                                                                 Long
                                                                                                 distance
                                                                          UK residential2
           60%

           50%
                      Year 0         Year 1         Year 2   Year 3   Year 4   Year 5   Year 6     Year 7


1 Market share estimates based on customer count
2 Estimates for 2003 and 2004
3 Average of North Texas and Houston market share

Source: PUC; OFGEM, FCC
                                                                                                            24
…And Overall Awareness of Competitors And Choice is
High                                                                                                                            2
                                               02
                                                                                                                              042
Unaided awareness of competitive electric providers1
02-04; Percent

                                                                                                                  88

                                  74                                      72

                                                              56
                                                                                                      51
                      47




                         Dallas                                Houston                            Corpus Christi


 Customer awareness of competition itself is nearly ubiquitous, with over 90%
 Customer awareness of competition itself is nearly ubiquitous, with over 90%
           of customers aware that they have a choice of supplier
            of customers aware that they have a choice of supplier

1 Unaided awareness defined as percentage of customers who can identify at least one competitive retailer without prompting
2 02 data based on 2Q02 results; 04 data based on 3Q04 survey results
                                                                                                                                    25
Source: TXU
Competition Has Already Forced Competitors To Respond
With Better Service
Average speed of answer
03-04; Seconds
                                      489




                280




                             96%                98%
                             96%                98%

                                                          52
                                                                      16
                             10                  12

              03 Avg      June 04                       Baby Bell   National
                                    April 04   Oct 04
                                                        telephone   financial
                       TXU          ERCOT Competitor
                                                        company     services
                                                                    company
Source: TXU
                                                                                26
Since Market Open Natural Gas Prices Have Increased By
More Than 150%
       20 day rolling average of 12 month NYMEX gas strip
       02-04; $ / MMBtu
       $8.00
       $7.00
       $6.00
       $5.00
       $4.00
                                                                      150%
       $3.00                                                          150%
       $2.00
       $1.00
       $0.00
           Jan-02    Jul-02      Jan-03     Jul-03      Jan-04      Jul-04

 Gas prices have risen drastically due to:
   Gas prices have risen drastically due to:
 • •Faster than expected declines in Eastern Canada, and the shallow water Gulf of Mexico, with higher
     Faster than expected declines in Eastern Canada, and the shallow water Gulf of Mexico, with higher
    cost replacement capacity
     cost replacement capacity
 • •Unexpected supply decreases due to 04 hurricanes
     Unexpected supply decreases due to 04 hurricanes
 • •Higher than expected demand growth in China
     Higher than expected demand growth in China
 • •Strong US economy combined with increased utilization of gas in US power industry
     Strong US economy combined with increased utilization of gas in US power industry
 • •Limited near term LNG supply
     Limited near term LNG supply
                                                                                                     27
Source: Bloomberg
Customers Have Already Begun To Reap The Benefits Of
Competition…
Average residential prices1                                                Average large business prices1
02-04; $ / MWh                                                             02-04; $ / MWh

                                                                                                         20%
                93                                                                         66            20%
                              15%
                              15%             79                                                                        53




   If regulation continued              Competitive                           If regulation continued             Competitive

 ••Customers have benefited from access to lower electricity prices than they would
    Customers have benefited from access to lower electricity prices than they would
   have experienced under regulation
    have experienced under regulation
 ••Similar to other industries, over time competition will continue to force the residential
    Similar to other industries, over time competition will continue to force the residential
   price down
    price down
 ••The Texas retail electric market is developing more quickly than other restructured
    The Texas retail electric market is developing more quickly than other restructured
   industries (e.g., telecom)
    industries (e.g., telecom)
1 CompetitiveResidential price based on 15% discount to TXU PTB as currently offered by market competitors, e.g., Cirro (14.6%); Competitive large
  business rates include 10% wholesale gross up and 5% net margin; Regulated world assumes 9.6 GW added capacity in the rate base (as opposed to
  22GW actually built) at a cost of $600/kw, O&M costs approximately $36/kw-yr resulting in an average cost of $127/kw-yr in the rate base
Source: TXU, ECOM model

                                                                                                                                                     28
…Evidenced By The Competitive Large Business Rates…
  Average large business rates1
  02-04; $ / MWh
                                                                                                                                          76
                                                                                                                             72
                                                                                                                  64
                                                                                                     61
                                                                                         61
                                                                             56
                                                                  53
                                                     52
                                          51
                              49
                  44




              Xcel-SPS    CPS San N Texas      Houston Entergy Gulf City of           Progress      Entergy      FPL       Tampa        El Paso
                          Antonio competitive competitive States -  Austin             Energy      Louisiana               Electric     Electric
                                                           Texas
Annual load      12.0      ---       61.3        38.2       23.8      5.6                15.3         20.3       44.1          8.4        3.2
   TWh



   ••Even with high gas prices, North Texas customers have access to some of the lowest
      Even with high gas prices, North Texas customers have access to some of the lowest
     rates in the Southern United States
      rates in the Southern United States
   ••“Of the companies relocating jobs (from California), 35% are sending them to Texas ––
      “Of the companies relocating jobs (from California), 35% are sending them to Texas
     more than all of the other 48 states combined,” Dallas Business Journal
      more than all of the other 48 states combined,” Dallas Business Journal
  1 Based on a 2.5 MW customer with a 80% load factor; average monthly price weighted by load; assumes price remains constant Sep 04 –Dec 04
  Source: PUCT, Florida PSC                                                                                                                        29
…And Competitive Residential Rates
  Average residential customer(1000 KWh/month) retail rates1
  02-04; $ / MWh
                                                                                                                                                   108
                                                                                                                                        94
                                                                                                                            86
                                                                                                                 83
                                                                                                     83
                                                                                          82
                                                                              81
                                                                   81
                                                       81
                                           79
                               76
                    68




              Xcel-SPS     CPS San N Texas      Houston City of                         Entergy      FPL      Progress Entergy Gulf Tampa        El Paso
                                                                           Georgia3
                                              2           2
                           Antonio competitive competitive Austin                      Louisiana                         States - Electric       Electric
                                                                                                                          Texas
Annual load         3.3         7.3        42           21.5       3.6       128.0         8.8       50.9        18.8      9.5        8.0           1.9
   TWh


    Even with high gas prices residential customers in competitive ERCOT areas
    Even with high gas prices residential customers in competitive ERCOT areas
       have access to some of the lowest rates in the Southern United States
        have access to some of the lowest rates in the Southern United States
  1 Based   on average monthly prices weighted by monthly usage; prices through Sep 04; assumes price remains constant through remainder of 04
  2 Competitive   Residential price based on 15% discount to TXU PTB as currently offered by market competitors, e.g., Utility Choice (14.9%), and Cirro (14.6%)
  3Average    of all rates in Georgia (Southern, Municipalities, Electric Membership Cooperatives)
  Source: PUCT, Florida PSC, Georgia PSC                                                                                                                    30
Although There Is Still Room For Improvement In ERCOT, It
Does Not Require Legislative Action



Market design or governance element   Potential improvement

                                      Establish additional tools and mechanisms for
Retail market                         retailers to control bad debt
                                      Send clearer signals for generators to respond to
Wholesale market design
                                      demand, manage production and balance load
                                      Implement additional incentives or mandates to
Delivery regulation                   ensure adequate delivery capacity to meet market
                                      needs




••The potential exists to create additional value for the customer by removing
   The potential exists to create additional value for the customer by removing
  inefficiency in the market
   inefficiency in the market
••The SB7 framework remains sound; market participants and the PUC will
   The SB7 framework remains sound; market participants and the PUC will
  continue to work together to achieve greater efficiencies
   continue to work together to achieve greater efficiencies

                                                                                          31
Today’s Discussion
                     Key questions

                      How has restructuring impacted
 Impact of
  Impact of
                      other industries?
 restructuring in
  restructuring in
 other industries
  other industries


                      How has restructuring impacted
 ERCOT market
  ERCOT market        the Texas wholesale and retail
 restructuring
  restructuring       markets?



                      What are TXU’s strategic priorities?
 Implications for
  Implications for
 TXU
  TXU


                                                         32
Incumbents Have Generally Had Problems Making The Transition
From The Regulated World To The Deregulated World
Annual total return to shareholders (CAGR)
83-03; Percent

         13.0


                                                                      6.9     5.7
                                              5.8
                    3.5                               3.1


                           -2.0
                                                               -5.1
                                      -6.3
     S&P 500 American Delta          United   AT&T   Qwest     MCI    Ryder   Yellow

                          Airlines                   Telecom            Trucking

 Deregulated incumbents have generally severely underperformed the broader
 Deregulated incumbents have generally severely underperformed the broader
                                 market
                                  market
Source: Compustat
                                                                                       33
How Do We Prevent Ourselves From Falling Into The Same
Trap As Other Incumbents?



“The brief booms that airlines occasionally enjoyed in the
 “The brief booms that airlines occasionally enjoyed in the
1980s and 1990s encouraged them to believe that radical
 1980s and 1990s encouraged them to believe that radical
change wasn’t necessary. Change didn’t happen fast enough
 change wasn’t necessary. Change didn’t happen fast enough
because it was always a moving target,”
 because it was always a moving target,”

Alfred Kahn, Chairman of Civil Aeronautics Board
Alfred Kahn, Chairman of Civil Aeronautics Board




                                                              34
Relentless Focus On The Three Critical Performance Drivers
Is Critical




         Operational Excellence                            Market Leadership

      • Top decile reliability                       • Superior customer service/
                                                       brand management
      • Industry leading capacity
        factors                                      • Value based pricing
      • World class industrial                       • Asset/supply optimization
        production costs                             • Commodity risk management
      • Lean corporate SG&A                          • Profitable growth


                             Performance Management

                             • High performance culture
                             • Balanced cascading scorecards
                             • Incentives linked to key value drivers
                                                                                    35
TXU Energy Overview




      January 2005
TXU Energy Is One Of TXU’s Three Core
Businesses, With Similar Performance Levers
               Strategy            Objectives                   Implementation
               • Cost leadership   • Top decile cost            • TXU operating
                                     performance                  system(lean)
               • Operational
                 excellence        • Top decile production      • Strategic
                                     performance                  sourcing
TXU Power

               • Commercial        • Excellent customer service • Customer
                 excellence                                       experience
                                   • Retain and grow profitable                   Today’s
                                                                • Customer
               • Cost leadership     customer base                                Focus
                                                                  segmentation
               • Market leadership • Top decile purchased
                                     power performance
TXU Energy

               • Cost leadership   • Achieve industry leading   • TXU operating
                                     safety performance           system(lean)
               • Operational
                 excellence        • Top decile reliability     • Strategic
                                                                  sourcing
                                   • Top decile cost
                                     performance                • Technological
TXU Electric
                                                                  innovation
  Delivery                         • Earn allowable return
                                                                                       1
Operational Earnings Performance Drivers
  04E vs. 05E; $ per diluted share
    Performance Driver                                                                                                                                        05E
        04E operational earnings outlook range                                                                                                        2.65 – 2.70
        Change in average diluted shares outstanding                                                                                                         0.90
        TXU Power
          Increased revenues from wholesale market price changes                                                                                                1.45
          Reduced O&M expenses (operating, benefit, lease, other)                                                                                               0.20
          Increased production from coal generation                                                                                                             0.11
          Reduced fuel expense                                                                                                                                  0.04
          Increased expenses related to two-unit nuclear outage (O&M, purchased power)                                                                        (0.27)
        TXU Energy
          Increased expenses from wholesale market price changes                                                                                              (1.49)
          Increased revenues from 04 fuel factor adjustments and out of territory growth                                                                        0.82
          Reduced SG&A expenses (CapGemini Energy contract, bad debt)                                                                                           0.37
          Reduced expense – purchased power and gas plant optimization, restructured PPAs                                                                       0.28
         Increased revenues from 2/05 fuel factor adjustment (50% of $6.92 fuel factor)                                                                         0.16
         Increased margin in large business segment                                                                                                             0.15
         Reduced O&M expenses (gas plants)                                                                                                                      0.13
         Reduced expenses and revenue losses due to hedge roll-off                                                                                              0.11
         Reduced wires expense                                                                                                                                  0.06
         Reduced margin from mass market customer churn                                                                                                       (0.04)
        TXU Electric Delivery
         Increased contribution margin                                                                                                                          0.25
        Corporate & Other                                                                                                                                   (0.03)
        Other                                                                                                                                                 0.08
        Interest expense                                                                                                                                    (0.24)
           05E operational earnings outlook range                                                                                                      5.65 - 5.85
1) Operational Earnings Per Share (a non-GAAP measure): Per Share (diluted) income from continuing operations, excluding special items and net of preference share dividends.
   TXU forecasts earnings on an operational earnings basis because forecasts of material non-recurring items are not practical. TXU relies on operational earnings for
   evaluation of performance and believes that analysis of the business by external users is enhanced by visibility to both reported GAAP earnings and operational earnings.
                                                                                                                                                                                0
TXU PTB Gas Price Base Has Increased 210%
Since Market Open
Historical Gas Prices vs. Forward Curve
01-05; $/MMBtu                                                                                                                                                                                                          20 day rolling
  8.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        average of 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        month forward
  8.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        curve1
  7.50

  7.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Current PTB
  6.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         base = $6.52
  6.00

  5.50

  5.00

  4.50

  4.00

  3.50                                                                                                         Daily NYMEX gas prices
  3.00

  2.50
         May-01




                                                               May-02




                                                                                                                     May-03




                                                                                                                                                                           May-04
                                    Nov-01




                                                                                          Nov-02




                                                                                                                                                Nov-03




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov-04
                  Jul-01

                           Sep-01



                                             Jan-02

                                                      Mar-02



                                                                        Jul-02

                                                                                 Sep-02



                                                                                                   Jan-03

                                                                                                            Mar-03



                                                                                                                              Jul-03

                                                                                                                                       Sep-03



                                                                                                                                                         Jan-04

                                                                                                                                                                  Mar-04



                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-04

                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep-04



                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-05
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3
TXU Energy Consists of 3 Market-Facing,
Customer-Centered Businesses


           Consumer                 Business                      Wholesale
           Consumer                 Business                      Wholesale
            Markets                 Markets                        Markets
            Markets                  Markets                       Markets
         (Retail residential   (Retail small business              (Wholesale
         (Retail residential   (Retail small business              (Wholesale
            customers)         thru large industrials)           counterparties)
            customers)          thru large industrials)          counterparties)
             Jim Burke               Kevin Bohn                   Larry Leverett
             Jim Burke               Kevin Bohn                   Larry Leverett
         Focus: Retain in-      Focus: Retain PTB             Focus: Optimize and
          Focus: Retain in-      Focus: Retain PTB            Focus: Optimize and
            territory PTB         customers and               balance supply and
            territory PTB         customers and                balance supply and
       customers and acquire   profitably contract for         load portfolios for
       customers and acquire   profitably contract for          load portfolios for
           out-of-territory        non-PTB load                  lowest cost and
           out-of-territory         non-PTB load                  lowest cost and
             customers                                            highest margin
              customers                                            highest margin

      …enabled by support functions and CapGemini Energy
      …enabled by support functions and CapGemini Energy

               Commercial Management:                     Dung Tran
               Commercial Management:                     Dung Tran
               Strategy and Communications:               Brian Tulloh
               Strategy and Communications:               Brian Tulloh
               Regulatory and Legal:                      Bill Moore
               Regulatory and Legal:                      Bill Moore




                                                                                      4
Key Focus Areas For TXU Energy



      • Retain in-territory customers
      • Retain in-territory customers
      • Capture profitable LCI, out-of-territory customers
      • Capture profitable LCI, out-of-territory customers
      • Reduce bad debt
      • Reduce bad debt
      • Lower cost of supply and ancillary services
      • Lower cost of supply and ancillary services
      • Lower business costs (operating systems and efficient
      • Lower business costs (operating systems and efficient
        business processes)
        business processes)
      • Improve performance management
      • Improve performance management
      • Participate in public policy issues (e.g., PTB)
      • Participate in public policy issues (e.g., PTB)
      • Develop growth opportunities
      • Develop growth opportunities




                                                                5
Consumer Markets Overview




        January 2005
Consumer Markets Overview



 Planned Topics

       Market Context

       Organizational Approach

       Pricing and Economics

       Customer Service Initiatives

       Marketing Initiatives




                                      7
TXU Energy Is The Largest Retailer In A Growing
Competitive Market
Large competitive customer base                                                 High growth
03; Millions of customers                                                       03 -12E; Percent annual demand growth
           2.3
                       1.6
                                                                                     2.5    2.5 2.3     2.2 2.1 1.9
                                                                                                                    1.8 1.8 1.8
                                    0.8                                                                                                          1.4
                                                0.2          0.1
         TXU        RRI          CPL/         First       Green
                                                                                    ERCOT    SERC    WECC    MAAC     MAIN
                                 WTU/         Choice      Mountain
                                                                                        FRCC     ECAR    MAPP     SPP      NPCC
                                 Direct
                                 Energy
    Source: KEMA                                                                Source: NERC


Highly competitive market                                                        TXU market share1
02 -04; Number of certified ERCOT retailers                                      September 04; Percent

                                                                                                   45
                                                                                                                                          33
                                                                                                                     32
                                                   90
                                      75
                          56
            39


                                                                                               Residential       Small      Large
            01            02          03          04E                                                          Commercial Commercial
                                                                                TXU Load2
                                                                                (TWh, 9 mos) 26.6                    8.6                  19.9
     Source: PUC                                                                Source: TXU 10Q
1   Market share represents share of electric meters for residential and small commercial, share of sales volumes for large commercial.
                                                                                                                                                       8
2   TXU Retail load for 1st three quarters of 2004, per 10Q
In-Territory Consumer Retention Reversed The
Trends Of 03
Quarter-end consumer count (based on number of meters) – North and South Texas
Q4 02 – Q3 04; millions
        2.5




        2.3

                                            5.0%

        2.0                                                                    3.0%




        1.8




        1.5
              Q402   Q103    Q203    Q303          Q403   Q104   Q204   Q304

                                      NTX          STX

 Despite increased competitive switching in the summer months, year to date
 Despite increased competitive switching in the summer months, year to date
  In-Territory customer attrition is down 40% versus the same period of 2003
   In-Territory customer attrition is down 40% versus the same period of 2003
                                                                                      9
The New Structure Drives Economics Throughout
Organization
                                                  SVP
                                                Consumer
                                                 Markets




     Products/           South Texas            North Texas            Marketing
                                                                                             Customer Ops
     Services              Region                 Region                Services




 What We Sell                Integrated Business P&Ls              Who and How We              How We
                                                                        Sell                   Deliver

Key Points
 •     Consumer organization primary focus on P&L, Marketing and Customer Experience
 •     Products and Services organization to innovate as well as manage existing portfolio (product mgmt)
 •     Region Teams specifically focused on decision-making, financial performance, and integration
 •     Marketing Services drives positioning, targeting, and channel management activities
 •     Customer Operations focused on customer experience and relationship with CapGemini Energy
                                                                                                            10
Consumer Markets Initiatives
                Initiatives                       Commentary
                Complete team build out           Capabilities to address retention, win-
People                                            back, acquisition and cost to
                                                  serve/customer experience objectives

                Deliver on aggressive             Protect customer profitability and
In-territory
                customer retention plan           mitigate loss rates, utilize PTB
Retention
                                                  flexibility as needed
Deliver on      Design and launch product         Loyalty offerings, pre-paid meters,
competitive     offerings beyond price to beat    outage notification expansion, whole-
benefits                                          house surge protection service

                Refine output based               Introduce gain-sharing, improve
CGE
                performance metrics               customer experience, customer
alliance
                                                  satisfaction, 1st call resolution
Out-of-         Improve P&L focus and deliver     Improve customer targeting, optimize
territory       positive EPS                      available list, coordinate channels
profitability

                Drive accountability for supply   Deliver P&L alignment through more
COGS            costs into the business and       focus on biggest cost driver – cost of
                deliver lower bad debt costs      energy (applies also to Business Mkts)
                                                                                            11
Current Gas Prices Are Consistent With Our PTB,
Following Q4 Spike
Historical Gas Prices vs. Forward Curve
04-05; $/MMBtu

8.00
                                                                                                    20 day rolling
                                                                                                    average of 12 month
7.50                                                                                                forward curve1

                                                                                                    Filing threshold
7.00
                                                                                                    (+5%) = $6.84
                                                                                                    Current PTB base
6.50
                                                                                                    = $6.52
6.00

5.50                                              Daily NYMEX gas prices

5.00
      Jan-04                  Apr-04                   Jul-04                     Oct-04   Jan-05


1   Assumes all future prices are equal to forward curve as of January 14, 2005

                                                                                                                          12
TXU Energy’s Headroom Remains The Lowest In Texas
Current; cents/KWh
                                   14
                                                                                 PTB - Incumbent
                                                                                 TXU Energy-S TX Current
                                   13




                                   12




                                                                                             TXU Energy has
                                   11
                                                                                             the lowest PTB in
                                                                                             the state.


                                   10




                                    9



                                                                                              Includes 12-15-05
                                                                                              PTB increase in
                                    8
                                         WTU      CPL     Centerpoint   TNMP       TXUE       Reliant and TNMP.
                                         13.06    12.41      12.19      11.70      10.98
             PTB - Incumbent
                                         12.01    11.42      10.00      10.12
             TXU Energy-S TX Current                                                           Based on 1,000KWh

       Estimated Headroom, %1           17-27%   20-24%    16-25%       10-24%   12-16%

       Estimated Residential
                                        ~3       ~ 10       ~ 26        ~4        ~ 40
       Market Size, TWh/yr
                                                                                                                   13
1   Source: TXU Energy estimates
Low And Volatile Headroom Creates Marketing
Challenges For Attacking Retailers
Margin history and outlook
02-06; Mixed measures
            Retail headroom1                                                                              7x24 power price2
            Percent                                                                                                $/MWh
             40%                                                                                                 $70
                                                                                       Forward wholesale
                                                                                       power price (right scale)
             35%                                                                                                 $60
             30%
                                                                                                                              $50
             25%
                                                                                                                              $40
             20%
                                                                                                                              $30
             15%
                                                                                        TXU retail headroom
                                                                                                                              $20
             10%                                                                                   (left scale)

                                                                                                                              $10
               5%

               0%                                                                                                             $0
                    02                   03                 04E                 05E                  06E
1 Headroom = (PTB – power cost – wires charges) / PTB; 02-04 based on actual headroom; 05+ based on rolling average of forward looking
  12 months as of January 17th, 2005; assumes 7800 BTU/KWh heat rate
2 02-04 based on actual power prices; 05+ based rolling average of 12 month forward curve
                                                                                                                                         14
We Are Measuring Our Service Performance
Through A More Robust Scorecard
                03 Scorecard                       05 Scorecard
                ASA, seconds                       IVR transit time, seconds
Access
                                                   Service level, X% within Y seconds
                                                   ASA, seconds
                Satisfaction with CCA, %           Customer satisfaction with CCA, %
Interaction     Satisfaction with IVR, %           Customer satisfaction with IVR, %
                                                   Web customer satisfaction, %
                Customer-reported FCR, %           Customer-reported FCR, %
Problem
                                                   CCA QA First Call Resolution, %
Resolution
                                                   Repeat call within 24 hours, %
                None                               Satisfaction with bill accuracy, %
Transaction                                        Web transaction rate, %
                                                   Delivery “late rate”, %
                Overall satisfaction with recent   Overall satisfaction with TXUE, %
Overall         call, %                            Satisfaction with value-price offer, %
                                                   Customer loyalty to TXU, %
              CapGemini Energy relationship is focused on alignment with
              CapGemini Energy relationship is focused on alignment with
                   performance expectations and improvements
                    performance expectations and improvements
                                                                                            15
Customer Service Continues To Show
Improvement …
Average Speed of Answer
03 - 04; seconds

               500
               450
               400
               350
               300
               250
               200
               150
               100
                 50
                   0
                  Jan-03                             Jul-03                            Jan-04                 Jul-04



1 Excludes   June 1 and June 2, the peak period for the storm that affected more than 1.3 million customers
                                                                                                                       16
… Enabled By a Streamlined IVR

From:                                    To:
A complex design                         A streamlined design
                                                                   Play outage
                                                                   message or directed
                                                                   to CCA queue; ASA
                                                                   15 seconds
                                                                                         Ways to
                                                                                         pay menu
                                                                   Billing menu
                                         Electric IVR                                     2.2.1 Account
                                                                     2.1 Account
                                         main menu                                        balance
                                                                     balance

                                                                                          2.2.2 Payment
                                                               1     2.2 Ways
                                          1.0 Outage                                      locations
                                                                     to Pay

                                                                                          2.2.3 Mail
                                                                     2.3 Make
                                                                     time to Pay*
                                          2.0 Billing                                                  100
                                                               2
                                                                                         Directed to CCA
                                                                     2.4 Other
                                                                                         queue; ASA
                                                                                         15 seconds
                                                                                   100

                                                                   Existing
                                          3.0 Existing
                                                               3   service menu
                                          service                                        Reconnect IVR
                                                                     3.1 Re-
                                                                     connect

                                                                     3.2 Stop or         Directed to CCA
                                                               4
                                          4.0 New                    move                queue; ASA
                                          service                    services            15 seconds
                                                                                   100
                                                         100

                                                                   Directed to CCA
                                                                   queue,
                                                                   ASA 15 seconds




   •Simplicity and user friendly interfaces have enhanced the IVR
    •Simplicity and user friendly interfaces have enhanced the IVR
   •IVR transit times have improved by 32% since January 04
    •IVR transit times have improved by 32% since January 04
                                                                                                             17
Bad Debt Initiatives Are Expected To Drive Out
Transitional Inefficiencies

TXU retail bad debt expense
                                                             Initiatives to
99–04E; $ millions
                                                             reduce bad debt:
                  Start of
                   Start of                                  • Tighter
                deregulation
                deregulation
                                                               disconnect rules
                                     120
                               118         95-               • More stringent
                                           100                 application of
                                                               credit policies
                                                               (e.g., deposits)
                                                             • Aggressive
                                                   ~ 55
                   49                                          prosecution of
                                                               fraud
          24                                                 • Working with
  16
                                                               stakeholders to
                                                               develop new tools
  99       00       01         02    03    04E                 to manage bad
                                                 Long-term
                                                   Target      debt (e.g.,
                                                               payment history
 Key drivers of increase in bad debt expense:
 Key drivers of increase in bad debt expense:                  database)
  Ability of customers to change power providers to
   Ability of customers to change power providers to
  avoid loss of service
   avoid loss of service
  Insufficient disconnect options
   Insufficient disconnect options
                                                                                18
Brand Positioning Delivers On Core TXU Energy
Value Proposition Across Texas

                                                Examples of how we deliver the value proposition

                                                  Enhanced self-service tools (e.g. web provisioning
                                                  with My Account) that allows customers more direct
                                Easy to do
                                                  control over their transactions
                                business with
                                                  Best-in-industry performance on key access measures
                                (convenience)
                                                  (i.e., 15 second ASA achieved, reduced IVR navigation
                                                  by 32%)


                                                  More timely/useful outage restoration information
                                                  (Option 1)
                                                  Whole House Surge Protection that protects all
 TXU Energy consumer            Dependable
                                                  household electronics from surges on three wires
 value proposition              service
                                                  (cable, phone, power)
                                                  Further expansion of Authorized Dealer Network
“Dependably serving our
Customers with superior
service, competitive pricing,
                                                  Rewards+ loyalty program for TXU customers
and innovative products”
                                                  Lowest PTB in Texas and In-territory rate is among
                                Competitive
                                                  lowest rates TXU offers throughout the state
                                price
                                                  Pricing incentives for Retention and Win-back of
                                                  valuable customers, with term commitments

                                                                                                          19
TXU Energy Rewards+ Program Overview

Leverages AREP’s ability to offer “discounts” off PTB through loyalty program

Consumer Benefit
Only TXU Energy Customers can get savings at
thousands of hotels and resorts, magazines,
restaurants, and DVDs.
Up to 45% discounts by using TXU Energy
Reward Dollars
Customers earn rewards points monthly
Pilot in STX in 2004 for Residential and
Commercial



TXU Details
State-wide category exclusivity
Online program, with main TXU cost driven by
communication costs
Able to be leveraged for incentives for on-time
payment, ebill, tenure, recurring payment, win-
back
Pilot target will be random sample of current
customers


                                                                                20
Business Markets Overview




        January 2005
Business Markets Overview



 Planned Topics

       Market Context

       Organizational Approach

       Key Initiatives




                                 23
Market Context

    ERCOT-wide SMB switching                                            TXU delivered volumes to SMB
    (11/04)                                                             (TWh, YTD through Q3)
                     100% =            100% =
                                       ~13.9 GW1
                     0.96 million
                                                                                  10.0
  Not with                                                                                    8.6
                         24%
  Affiliate
                                          62%
  REP

                         76%
  With
  Affiliate                               38%
  REP
                                                                                   03         04
                                          Load                                                      Source: TXU Corp. 10Q
                       Meters                      Source: ERCOT


    ERCOT-wide LCI switching                                            TXU delivered volumes to LCI
    (11/04)                                                             (TWh, YTD through Q3)
                                                                                  23.9
                                        100% =
                      100% =
                                        9.1 GW1
                      ~ 4,300
                                                                                             19.9
  Not with
  Affiliate             64%              67%
  REP

  With
  Affiliate             36%              33%
  REP
                                                                                  03          04
                                         Load
                      Meters                                       Estimated
                                                                                  39%        33%
                                                                   market share
                                                   Source: ERCOT
                                                                                                    Source: TXU Corp. 10Q
                                                                                                                            24
1 Based   on demand level at time of 8/7/03 ERCOT peak
energy future holindings _032905
energy future holindings _032905
energy future holindings _032905
energy future holindings _032905
energy future holindings _032905
energy future holindings _032905
energy future holindings _032905

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

Corporate Presentation - January 2012
Corporate Presentation - January 2012Corporate Presentation - January 2012
Corporate Presentation - January 2012mmxriweb
 
IFC Investor Presentation Sept 19, 2011
IFC Investor Presentation Sept 19, 2011IFC Investor Presentation Sept 19, 2011
IFC Investor Presentation Sept 19, 2011mehradahari
 
terex KeyBanc060508
terex KeyBanc060508terex KeyBanc060508
terex KeyBanc060508finance42
 
Corporate Presentation - January 2012
Corporate Presentation - January 2012Corporate Presentation - January 2012
Corporate Presentation - January 2012mmxriweb
 
Mmx agosto 2012 - ingles v3
Mmx   agosto 2012 - ingles v3Mmx   agosto 2012 - ingles v3
Mmx agosto 2012 - ingles v3mmxriweb
 
August 2010 Presentation
August 2010 PresentationAugust 2010 Presentation
August 2010 PresentationIntact
 

Mais procurados (7)

Corporate Presentation - January 2012
Corporate Presentation - January 2012Corporate Presentation - January 2012
Corporate Presentation - January 2012
 
IFC Investor Presentation Sept 19, 2011
IFC Investor Presentation Sept 19, 2011IFC Investor Presentation Sept 19, 2011
IFC Investor Presentation Sept 19, 2011
 
terex KeyBanc060508
terex KeyBanc060508terex KeyBanc060508
terex KeyBanc060508
 
Corporate Presentation - January 2012
Corporate Presentation - January 2012Corporate Presentation - January 2012
Corporate Presentation - January 2012
 
Mmx agosto 2012 - ingles v3
Mmx   agosto 2012 - ingles v3Mmx   agosto 2012 - ingles v3
Mmx agosto 2012 - ingles v3
 
Korea Supplement
Korea SupplementKorea Supplement
Korea Supplement
 
August 2010 Presentation
August 2010 PresentationAugust 2010 Presentation
August 2010 Presentation
 

Destaque

calpine 3Q05CalGen10Q
calpine  3Q05CalGen10Qcalpine  3Q05CalGen10Q
calpine 3Q05CalGen10Qfinance29
 
MGMM ShareLet02
MGMM  ShareLet02MGMM  ShareLet02
MGMM ShareLet02finance29
 
MGMM FinOver02
MGMM  FinOver02MGMM  FinOver02
MGMM FinOver02finance29
 
MGM MIRAGE SuppData05307
MGM MIRAGE  SuppData05307MGM MIRAGE  SuppData05307
MGM MIRAGE SuppData05307finance29
 
calpine 2Q05CalGen10Q
calpine  2Q05CalGen10Qcalpine  2Q05CalGen10Q
calpine 2Q05CalGen10Qfinance29
 
calpine q2_2007_As_Filed
calpine  q2_2007_As_Filedcalpine  q2_2007_As_Filed
calpine q2_2007_As_Filedfinance29
 
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEIenergy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEIfinance29
 
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINAL
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINALChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINAL
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINALfinance29
 
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_PresentationChesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentationfinance29
 

Destaque (9)

calpine 3Q05CalGen10Q
calpine  3Q05CalGen10Qcalpine  3Q05CalGen10Q
calpine 3Q05CalGen10Q
 
MGMM ShareLet02
MGMM  ShareLet02MGMM  ShareLet02
MGMM ShareLet02
 
MGMM FinOver02
MGMM  FinOver02MGMM  FinOver02
MGMM FinOver02
 
MGM MIRAGE SuppData05307
MGM MIRAGE  SuppData05307MGM MIRAGE  SuppData05307
MGM MIRAGE SuppData05307
 
calpine 2Q05CalGen10Q
calpine  2Q05CalGen10Qcalpine  2Q05CalGen10Q
calpine 2Q05CalGen10Q
 
calpine q2_2007_As_Filed
calpine  q2_2007_As_Filedcalpine  q2_2007_As_Filed
calpine q2_2007_As_Filed
 
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEIenergy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI
 
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINAL
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINALChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINAL
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINAL
 
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_PresentationChesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
 

Semelhante a energy future holindings _032905

energy future holindings _061405
energy future holindings _061405energy future holindings _061405
energy future holindings _061405finance29
 
energy future holindings _111704
energy future holindings _111704energy future holindings _111704
energy future holindings _111704finance29
 
energy future holindings 111704
energy future holindings 111704energy future holindings 111704
energy future holindings 111704finance29
 
China’s rising cities the next frontier
China’s rising cities   the next frontierChina’s rising cities   the next frontier
China’s rising cities the next frontierIan Hou
 
Scott-Macon Aerospace, Defense and Government Services (Oct 2019)
Scott-Macon Aerospace, Defense and Government Services (Oct 2019)Scott-Macon Aerospace, Defense and Government Services (Oct 2019)
Scott-Macon Aerospace, Defense and Government Services (Oct 2019)Michael Papazis
 
Mmx janeiro 2013 - ingles
Mmx   janeiro 2013 - inglesMmx   janeiro 2013 - ingles
Mmx janeiro 2013 - inglesmmxriweb
 
Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense Market Update (Feb 2018)
Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense Market Update (Feb 2018)Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense Market Update (Feb 2018)
Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense Market Update (Feb 2018)Michael Papazis
 
Sebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
Sebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & ValuationsSebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
Sebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & ValuationsVC Experts, Inc.
 
Mmx dezembro 2012 - ingles - v2
Mmx   dezembro 2012 - ingles - v2Mmx   dezembro 2012 - ingles - v2
Mmx dezembro 2012 - ingles - v2mmxriweb
 
Thinking of Cloud? Options for Automotive Companies
Thinking of Cloud? Options for Automotive CompaniesThinking of Cloud? Options for Automotive Companies
Thinking of Cloud? Options for Automotive CompaniesCognizant
 
Marketo, Inc. - Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
Marketo, Inc. - Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & ValuationsMarketo, Inc. - Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
Marketo, Inc. - Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & ValuationsVC Experts, Inc.
 
Mmx novembro 2012 - ingles - v2
Mmx   novembro 2012 - ingles - v2Mmx   novembro 2012 - ingles - v2
Mmx novembro 2012 - ingles - v2mmxriweb
 
energy future holindings u_070605
energy future holindings u_070605energy future holindings u_070605
energy future holindings u_070605finance29
 
energy future holindings _070605
energy future holindings _070605energy future holindings _070605
energy future holindings _070605finance29
 
The practice of financial management among large united states corporations
The practice of financial management among large united states corporationsThe practice of financial management among large united states corporations
The practice of financial management among large united states corporationsBijay pandey
 
Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense (December 2019)
Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense (December 2019)Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense (December 2019)
Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense (December 2019)Michael Papazis
 
terex Sanford053008
terex Sanford053008terex Sanford053008
terex Sanford053008finance42
 
2008 Hwacheon Master Action Plan
2008 Hwacheon Master Action Plan2008 Hwacheon Master Action Plan
2008 Hwacheon Master Action PlanMarkALeeser
 

Semelhante a energy future holindings _032905 (20)

energy future holindings _061405
energy future holindings _061405energy future holindings _061405
energy future holindings _061405
 
energy future holindings _111704
energy future holindings _111704energy future holindings _111704
energy future holindings _111704
 
energy future holindings 111704
energy future holindings 111704energy future holindings 111704
energy future holindings 111704
 
China’s rising cities the next frontier
China’s rising cities   the next frontierChina’s rising cities   the next frontier
China’s rising cities the next frontier
 
Scott-Macon Aerospace, Defense and Government Services (Oct 2019)
Scott-Macon Aerospace, Defense and Government Services (Oct 2019)Scott-Macon Aerospace, Defense and Government Services (Oct 2019)
Scott-Macon Aerospace, Defense and Government Services (Oct 2019)
 
Mmx janeiro 2013 - ingles
Mmx   janeiro 2013 - inglesMmx   janeiro 2013 - ingles
Mmx janeiro 2013 - ingles
 
Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense Market Update (Feb 2018)
Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense Market Update (Feb 2018)Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense Market Update (Feb 2018)
Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense Market Update (Feb 2018)
 
Sebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
Sebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & ValuationsSebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
Sebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
 
Presentation2
Presentation2Presentation2
Presentation2
 
Presentation2
Presentation2Presentation2
Presentation2
 
Mmx dezembro 2012 - ingles - v2
Mmx   dezembro 2012 - ingles - v2Mmx   dezembro 2012 - ingles - v2
Mmx dezembro 2012 - ingles - v2
 
Thinking of Cloud? Options for Automotive Companies
Thinking of Cloud? Options for Automotive CompaniesThinking of Cloud? Options for Automotive Companies
Thinking of Cloud? Options for Automotive Companies
 
Marketo, Inc. - Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
Marketo, Inc. - Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & ValuationsMarketo, Inc. - Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
Marketo, Inc. - Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
 
Mmx novembro 2012 - ingles - v2
Mmx   novembro 2012 - ingles - v2Mmx   novembro 2012 - ingles - v2
Mmx novembro 2012 - ingles - v2
 
energy future holindings u_070605
energy future holindings u_070605energy future holindings u_070605
energy future holindings u_070605
 
energy future holindings _070605
energy future holindings _070605energy future holindings _070605
energy future holindings _070605
 
The practice of financial management among large united states corporations
The practice of financial management among large united states corporationsThe practice of financial management among large united states corporations
The practice of financial management among large united states corporations
 
Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense (December 2019)
Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense (December 2019)Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense (December 2019)
Scott-Macon Aerospace & Defense (December 2019)
 
terex Sanford053008
terex Sanford053008terex Sanford053008
terex Sanford053008
 
2008 Hwacheon Master Action Plan
2008 Hwacheon Master Action Plan2008 Hwacheon Master Action Plan
2008 Hwacheon Master Action Plan
 

Mais de finance29

ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINAL
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINALChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINAL
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINALfinance29
 
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_PresentationChesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentationfinance29
 
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_PresentationChesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentationfinance29
 
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINAL
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINALChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINAL
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINALfinance29
 
Chesapeake Energy07ARFINAL
Chesapeake Energy07ARFINALChesapeake Energy07ARFINAL
Chesapeake Energy07ARFINALfinance29
 
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_PresentationChesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentationfinance29
 
MGM MIRAGE MandalayHist
MGM MIRAGE  MandalayHistMGM MIRAGE  MandalayHist
MGM MIRAGE MandalayHistfinance29
 
MGM MIRAGE ProForma
MGM MIRAGE  ProFormaMGM MIRAGE  ProForma
MGM MIRAGE ProFormafinance29
 
MGM MIRAGE Actual
MGM MIRAGE  ActualMGM MIRAGE  Actual
MGM MIRAGE Actualfinance29
 
MGM 93005SuppDataMandalayHistorical
MGM 93005SuppDataMandalayHistoricalMGM 93005SuppDataMandalayHistorical
MGM 93005SuppDataMandalayHistoricalfinance29
 
MGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataProForma
MGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataProFormaMGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataProForma
MGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataProFormafinance29
 
MGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataActual
MGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataActualMGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataActual
MGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataActualfinance29
 
MGM MIRAGE Mandalayhist_022306
MGM MIRAGE  Mandalayhist_022306MGM MIRAGE  Mandalayhist_022306
MGM MIRAGE Mandalayhist_022306finance29
 
MGM MIRAGE SuppActual_022306
MGM MIRAGE  SuppActual_022306MGM MIRAGE  SuppActual_022306
MGM MIRAGE SuppActual_022306finance29
 
MGM MIRAGE SuppProForma_022306
MGM MIRAGE  SuppProForma_022306MGM MIRAGE  SuppProForma_022306
MGM MIRAGE SuppProForma_022306finance29
 
MGM Mandalay
MGM MandalayMGM Mandalay
MGM Mandalayfinance29
 
MGM ProForma
MGM ProFormaMGM ProForma
MGM ProFormafinance29
 
MGM MIRAGE SuppData080207
MGM MIRAGE  SuppData080207MGM MIRAGE  SuppData080207
MGM MIRAGE SuppData080207finance29
 
MGM MIRAGE MGM_MIRAGE_Supp_Data_103007
MGM MIRAGE  MGM_MIRAGE_Supp_Data_103007MGM MIRAGE  MGM_MIRAGE_Supp_Data_103007
MGM MIRAGE MGM_MIRAGE_Supp_Data_103007finance29
 

Mais de finance29 (20)

ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINAL
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINALChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINAL
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINAL
 
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_PresentationChesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
 
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_PresentationChesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
 
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINAL
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINALChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINAL
ChesapeakeEnergy07ARFINAL
 
Chesapeake Energy07ARFINAL
Chesapeake Energy07ARFINALChesapeake Energy07ARFINAL
Chesapeake Energy07ARFINAL
 
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_PresentationChesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
Chesapeake Latest_IR_Presentation
 
MGM MIRAGE MandalayHist
MGM MIRAGE  MandalayHistMGM MIRAGE  MandalayHist
MGM MIRAGE MandalayHist
 
MGM MIRAGE ProForma
MGM MIRAGE  ProFormaMGM MIRAGE  ProForma
MGM MIRAGE ProForma
 
MGM MIRAGE Actual
MGM MIRAGE  ActualMGM MIRAGE  Actual
MGM MIRAGE Actual
 
MGM 93005SuppDataMandalayHistorical
MGM 93005SuppDataMandalayHistoricalMGM 93005SuppDataMandalayHistorical
MGM 93005SuppDataMandalayHistorical
 
MGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataProForma
MGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataProFormaMGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataProForma
MGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataProForma
 
MGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataActual
MGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataActualMGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataActual
MGMMIRAGE 93005SuppDataActual
 
MGM MIRAGE Mandalayhist_022306
MGM MIRAGE  Mandalayhist_022306MGM MIRAGE  Mandalayhist_022306
MGM MIRAGE Mandalayhist_022306
 
MGM MIRAGE SuppActual_022306
MGM MIRAGE  SuppActual_022306MGM MIRAGE  SuppActual_022306
MGM MIRAGE SuppActual_022306
 
MGM MIRAGE SuppProForma_022306
MGM MIRAGE  SuppProForma_022306MGM MIRAGE  SuppProForma_022306
MGM MIRAGE SuppProForma_022306
 
MGM Mandalay
MGM MandalayMGM Mandalay
MGM Mandalay
 
MGM ProForma
MGM ProFormaMGM ProForma
MGM ProForma
 
MGM Supp
MGM SuppMGM Supp
MGM Supp
 
MGM MIRAGE SuppData080207
MGM MIRAGE  SuppData080207MGM MIRAGE  SuppData080207
MGM MIRAGE SuppData080207
 
MGM MIRAGE MGM_MIRAGE_Supp_Data_103007
MGM MIRAGE  MGM_MIRAGE_Supp_Data_103007MGM MIRAGE  MGM_MIRAGE_Supp_Data_103007
MGM MIRAGE MGM_MIRAGE_Supp_Data_103007
 

energy future holindings _032905

  • 1. ERCOT Competitive Market Assessment and Overview of TXU Energy Retail Organization Overview January 2005
  • 2. Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's current projections, forecasts, estimates and expectations is contained in the company's SEC filings. In addition to the risks and uncertainties set forth in the company's SEC filings, the forward-looking statements in this presentation could be affected by the ability of the company to implement the initiatives that are part of its restructuring, operational improvement and cost reduction program, and the terms under which the company executes those initiatives. 1
  • 3. TXU Strategy Competitive Market Assessment January 2005
  • 4. Today’s Discussion Key questions How has restructuring impacted Impact of Impact of other industries? restructuring in restructuring in other industries other industries How has restructuring impacted ERCOT market ERCOT market the Texas wholesale and retail restructuring restructuring markets? What are TXU’s strategic priorities? Implications for Implications for TXU TXU 2
  • 5. Over Time Restructuring Allows Customers To Capture The Benefits Of Open Markets And Competition Efficiency Increased Increased consumer consumer value value Investment Innovation ••Over the long term open markets allocate resources better than monopolies and Over the long term open markets allocate resources better than monopolies and regulators regulators ••quot;Competition on its worst day is better than regulation on its best day.“ -Pat Wood, quot;Competition on its worst day is better than regulation on its best day.“ -Pat Wood, FERC Chairman FERC Chairman ••“Markets can both price and allocate capital; not just allocate,” Financial Times “Markets can both price and allocate capital; not just allocate,” Financial Times 3
  • 6. Across Multiple Industries, Market Restructuring Has Led To Increased Investment… US Natural gas US Power generation US Telecom 86-02; $ billions 95-04E; $ billions 86% 104% 93-04; $ billions 480% 86% 104% 480% 40 50 14 12 40 30 10 30 8 20 6 20 4 10 10 2 0 0 0 93 95 97 99 01 03 95 97 99 01 03 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Wholesale Telecom Order competition Act of 96 436/500 starts to flourish Free markets provide the incentives for investment in infrastructure Free markets provide the incentives for investment in infrastructure and technology and technology 4 Source: Company Annual Reports, 10-Ks, CIBC, Morgan Stanley, ITU, Gas Facts 2003, AGA, 2004, Energy Velocity
  • 7. …Efficiency Gains… Leaner cost structure: Smaller workforce: Higher Utilization: Percent of Interstate trucking British Telecom employees available airline seat miles filled operating costs 84-04; Thousands 77-00; Percent 77-93; Real $/mile (2004) 27% 27% 5.8 71 240 76% 58% 56 76% 58% 100 1.4 84 04 77 93 77 00 Pre- Pre- Pre- deregulation deregulation deregulation A competitive market provides clear incentives and accountability for A competitive market provides clear incentives and accountability for constant improvement constant improvement 5 Source: British Telecom, Airline Form 41, Transportation Technical Services
  • 8. …And Innovation Over Time New products/technology Timeframe-years post restructuring after restructuring Increase from 30-300 channels HDTV technology Cable Cable Internet broadband 3-5 Pay-per-view Digital Video Recorder (DVR) Parental controls Call waiting Caller ID Telecom Telecom 3-way calling 5-15 Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) Cell phones Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) Swing option pricing Horizontal drilling Natural Gas Natural Gas 10-20 More flexible storage LNG liquefaction technology advances Frequent flier programs Ticketless travel Airlines Airlines 5-15 Online reservation (Sabre) Regional jets with turbofan technology Air limos 6
  • 9. Restructuring Has Resulted In Lower Prices For Customers Across Multiple Industries… Airline retail prices US long distance Trucking prices (truckload) Real yield index (1979=100) 80-02; Index of Real 67-97; Index of Real $/ton 79-94; No units revenue/minute (1980=100) (1967=100) 120 120 100 110 37% 37% 100 45% 86% 45% 86% 100 80 80 90 60 80 60 70 40 40 60 20 20 50 0 40 0 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 1980 Motor Long Airline Carrier Act distance restructuring restructuring A competitive market forces the efficiency gains through to the customer in A competitive market forces the efficiency gains through to the customer in the form of lower prices and value added services the form of lower prices and value added services 7 Source: Airline Form 41, FCC, Transportation Technical Services
  • 10. …Including Other Restructured Electric Markets Retail electric prices Real price index (1990=100)1 90-03; No units 120 Australia residential 110 100 Price reduction 90 12% 80 UK residential 70 33% 60 50 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 UK Australia restructuring restructuring In these foreign markets it took 3 – 5 years to see absolute price decreases In these foreign markets it took 3 – 5 years to see absolute price decreases 1 Australia price index: 1994=100 8 Source: UK Department of Trade and Industry, Energy Supply Association of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics CPI data
  • 11. Today’s Discussion Key questions How has restructuring impacted Impact of Impact of other industries? restructuring in restructuring in other industries other industries How has restructuring impacted ERCOT market ERCOT market the Texas wholesale and retail restructuring restructuring markets? What are TXU’s strategic priorities? Implications for Implications for TXU TXU 9
  • 12. Utilities Historically Have Been Integrated Monopolies Across The Value Chain Generation Transmission Distribution Produce power Transmit power over Deliver power locally long distances to customers Generating Transmission Transmission Distribution Customers station wires substation wires Fuel North Texas TXU/TNMP Houston HL&P/TNMP South Texas CP&L West Texas WTU/TNMP 10
  • 13. Texas Utility Restructuring Has “Unbundled” The Electric Power Value Chain And Restructured Many Activities Competitive Transmission Generation Distribution Restructuring Generation Transmission Retail Distribution 59 active retailers 67 Generators 5 T&D Examples ANP AEP Central Cirro Calpine AEP North Constellation Constellation CenterPoint Direct Energy Exelon TNMP Entergy FPL TXU Electric Delivery First Choice Sempra GEXA Texas Genco Green Mountain TXU Power Reliant Energy TXU Energy Restructuring has brought aavariety of new players into the market Restructuring has brought variety of new players into the market 11
  • 14. Companies Have Actively Chosen Different Business Models To Participate In ERCOT… Where companies participate Model Segments Examples T D Participate in TXU Corp G R all segments From an integrated model . . . Participate in CenterPoint T D Genera- Trans- Distribu- G R Retail T&D only AEP Central/North tion mission tion Participate in Reliant Energy T D G R retail only . . . to many functional combinations Green Mountain Gexa Participate in Centrica/Direct T D Transmission Distribution G R retail and Energy generation Calpine Constellation Generation Retail Participate in Texas Genco T D G R generation FPL only ••Only time will tell which business models will succeed Only time will tell which business models will succeed ••As the market continues to mature, the winning business model may continue to change As the market continues to mature, the winning business model may continue to change 12
  • 15. …As Evidenced By Recent Transactions CenterPoint CenterPoint T D T D CenterPoint T D Reliant Energy Texas Genco GC Power Acquisition G T D G G TGN mothballs G R 2.5 GW Generation business spun off Texas Genco (14 GW) sold to from T&D private investor group Reliant does not exercise option Reliant Energy Reliant Energy to buy TGN from CenterPoint IPP’s build R R over 20 GW Retail business spun of CCGT off from T&D and AEP AEP generation businesses capacity T D T D (98-02) Over 59 AEP AEP retains large retail active and wholesale customers T D retailers G R AEP Sempra in Sempra AEP mothballs 16 gas ERCOT T D G G fired plants (4 GW) G R • AEP sells STP stake (0.6 GW) • Sells non-nuclear portfolio to Sempra/Carlyle/ Riverstone (4 GW) Direct Energy Centrica/Direct Energy R G R AEP sells 850,000 residential and small Centrica buys Bastrop business retail customers to Centrica power plant TXU Corp TXU Corp TXU Power TXU Power pursues sale of T D T D TXU Power sells Handley mothballs 4GW of other plants and Mt Creek plants G R generation G R 13
  • 16. ERCOT Was Designed So That Customers Could Capture The Benefits Of Open Markets And Competition... Implementation Effect Large infusion of capital Established bilateral Wholesale market between Investment in state of the Wholesale art technology (efficient generators and retailers CCGT) Expedited permitting and Improved operational interconnection for new performance (5%-8% build improvement in utilization) PTB intended to provide Improved customer sufficient headroom to service Retail Retail spur competition Large number of Low barriers for retail competitors (~60) certification New products (“Green Immediate competitive Power”, outage pricing for large business notification, online customers billing) Competition has already spurred investment, increased efficiency and should Competition has already spurred investment, increased efficiency and should continue to encourage innovation and increase value to the consumer continue to encourage innovation and increase value to the consumer 14
  • 17. Restructuring Spurred Massive Generation Investment In The ERCOT Market… In rate base Not in rate base Capacity additions 90-04; GW1 90-97 Additions= 6 GW 98-04 Additions= 26 GW 6.6 PURA 95 SB7 5.7 5.5 (wholesale (retail 4.4 competition) competition) 2.9 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 Year 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 Reserve Margin (%) 27 29 27 23 23 17 16 9 8 7 12 28 35 32 33 From 98-04, more than $15 billion was invested in generation infrastructure – From 98-04, more than $15 billion was invested in generation infrastructure – none of which was in the rate base none of which was in the rate base 1 GW = 1000 MW (1 MW serves approximately 1000 homes) 15 Source: Energy Velocity; NERC
  • 18. …Bringing Efficient CCGT Capacity Into The ERCOT Generation Portfolio… Average demand ERCOT generation portfolio: Average variable cost1 98-04; $ / MWh Internal 98 combustion 200 Gas/oil 150 100 Wind Coal Nuclear 50 Restructuring led to Average price ~ $80 Restructuring led to the investment of the investment of 0 over $15 billion and over $15 billion and 0 20 40 60 80 the addition of the the addition of the 04 22GW of efficient 22GW of efficient Internal CCGT capacity 200 CCGT capacity combustion Gas/oil 150 22 GW of new efficient capacity Wind Coal 100 Nuclear CCGT 50 Average price ~ $45 0 0 20 40 60 80 Cumulative Capacity 1 Based on a $6.00/ MMBtu gas price GW 16 Source: Platt’s PowerDat
  • 19. …Leading To A Significant Reduction In Market Heat Rates... ERCOT heat rate1 cycle 98-04; MMBtu/MWh 16 CCGT reinvestment economics 14 12 10 8 6 4 CCGT marginal heat rate 2 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 •• New capacity has led to a 40% increase in the efficiency of the marginal unit New capacity has led to a 40% increase in the efficiency of the marginal unit •• This would be akin to improving average automobile gas mileage from 20 This would be akin to improving average automobile gas mileage from 20 mpg to 35 mpg mpg to 35 mpg 1 Heat rate is a measure of the efficiency of converting a unit of fuel (MMBtu) into a unit of electricity (MWh); lower heat rates implies higher efficiency 17 Source: MegaWatt Daily, Gas Daily
  • 20. …And The Reduced Production From Conventional Gas Units… Annual production Total available capacity 98-03; TWh 98-04; GW 90 30 33% 33% 21 Other 8 63% 63% 20 AEP 15 4 7 CNP 22 33 8 1 9 5 4 TXU 32 8 10 7 Power 12 98 03 98 04 Over 10 GW of conventional gas generation has been mothballed or retired Over 10 GW of conventional gas generation has been mothballed or retired Almost $8 billion dollars has migrated away from these plants Almost $8 billion dollars has migrated away from these plants 18 Sources: RDI
  • 21. …Delivering Significant Savings To The Largest Power Purchasers And To Competitive Customers Through REPs Implied wholesale prices 44% 44% 04E; $/MWh 82 45 32 99 heat rates at 99 heat rates at 04 heat rate at 04 99 gas prices 04 gas prices gas prices Gas price ($/MMBtu): $2.271 $5.832 $5.832 Heat rate (MMBtu/MWh): 143 143 7.84 Wholesale power prices may have been more than 40% higher if not for the influx of Wholesale power prices may have been more than 40% higher if not for the influx of significant new capacity significant new capacity 1 Based on 99 average Henry Hub spot market price 2 Based on Henry Hub spot market average (January 2004-November 9, 2004) 3 Assumes heat rate = 14 MMBtu/MWh (99 ERCOT heat rate) 4 Assumes heat rate = 7.8 MMBtu/MWh (04 actual heat rate) 19 Sources: Bloomberg, MegaWatt Daily
  • 22. ERCOT Was Designed So That Customers Could Capture The Benefits Of Open Markets And Competition... Implementation Effect Large infusion of capital Established bilateral Wholesale market between Investment in state of the Wholesale art technology (efficient generators and retailers CCGT) Expedited permitting and Improved operational interconnection for new performance (5%-8% build improvement in utilization) PTB intended to provide Improved customer sufficient headroom to service Retail Retail spur competition Large number of Low barriers for retail competitors (~60) certification New products (“Green Immediate competitive Power”, outage pricing for large business notification, online customers billing) Competition has already spurred investment, increased efficiency and should Competition has already spurred investment, increased efficiency and should continue to encourage innovation and increase value to the consumer continue to encourage innovation and increase value to the consumer 20
  • 23. ERCOT Has Seen Significant Switching Across All Customer Classes Total new entrant market share June 04; Percent of load While 20% of the market is 74% currently served by a new entrant, up to 33% have 45% actively made a choice1 20% 14% 4% Large Small and Residential Local Long distance Business Medium telephone 3 3 years after Business years after restructuring restructuring ERCOT retail switching ERCOT has seen higher switching levels than other restructured industries ERCOT has seen higher switching levels than other restructured industries 1 Based on TXU incumbent territory; 575,000 customers served by a new entrant; approximately 100,000 customers have switched back 21 Source: PUC, KEMA, TXU, FCC
  • 24. Texas Is Leading The Nation In New Entrant Market Share… Total new entrant large business market share1 June 04; Percent of load 74 56 48 39 38 31 26 21 13 TX ME NY DC MD MA CA OH PA Large business customers quickly took advantage of competitive rates Large business customers quickly took advantage of competitive rates 1 Figures represent an average of Commercial and Industrial switch rates Source: PUC, KEMA 22
  • 25. …And Residential Retail Competition Total new entrant residential market share June 04; Percent of load 20 10 7 6 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 TX DC NY PA MD OH MA CT ME CA ERCOT has the most active restructured residential retail market in the US ERCOT has the most active restructured residential retail market in the US 1 Excludes 17% attributable to municipal aggregation (based on CERA estimate) because municipal aggregation is not customer choice Source: PUC, KEMA, CERA 23
  • 26. Although Residential Switching Trails Large Customer Switching, It Remains in Line With Other Successful Restructured Markets… Incumbent market share1 Years since restructuring; Percent Local 100% telephone 90% 80% Texas3 70% Long distance UK residential2 60% 50% Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 1 Market share estimates based on customer count 2 Estimates for 2003 and 2004 3 Average of North Texas and Houston market share Source: PUC; OFGEM, FCC 24
  • 27. …And Overall Awareness of Competitors And Choice is High 2 02 042 Unaided awareness of competitive electric providers1 02-04; Percent 88 74 72 56 51 47 Dallas Houston Corpus Christi Customer awareness of competition itself is nearly ubiquitous, with over 90% Customer awareness of competition itself is nearly ubiquitous, with over 90% of customers aware that they have a choice of supplier of customers aware that they have a choice of supplier 1 Unaided awareness defined as percentage of customers who can identify at least one competitive retailer without prompting 2 02 data based on 2Q02 results; 04 data based on 3Q04 survey results 25 Source: TXU
  • 28. Competition Has Already Forced Competitors To Respond With Better Service Average speed of answer 03-04; Seconds 489 280 96% 98% 96% 98% 52 16 10 12 03 Avg June 04 Baby Bell National April 04 Oct 04 telephone financial TXU ERCOT Competitor company services company Source: TXU 26
  • 29. Since Market Open Natural Gas Prices Have Increased By More Than 150% 20 day rolling average of 12 month NYMEX gas strip 02-04; $ / MMBtu $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 150% $3.00 150% $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Gas prices have risen drastically due to: Gas prices have risen drastically due to: • •Faster than expected declines in Eastern Canada, and the shallow water Gulf of Mexico, with higher Faster than expected declines in Eastern Canada, and the shallow water Gulf of Mexico, with higher cost replacement capacity cost replacement capacity • •Unexpected supply decreases due to 04 hurricanes Unexpected supply decreases due to 04 hurricanes • •Higher than expected demand growth in China Higher than expected demand growth in China • •Strong US economy combined with increased utilization of gas in US power industry Strong US economy combined with increased utilization of gas in US power industry • •Limited near term LNG supply Limited near term LNG supply 27 Source: Bloomberg
  • 30. Customers Have Already Begun To Reap The Benefits Of Competition… Average residential prices1 Average large business prices1 02-04; $ / MWh 02-04; $ / MWh 20% 93 66 20% 15% 15% 79 53 If regulation continued Competitive If regulation continued Competitive ••Customers have benefited from access to lower electricity prices than they would Customers have benefited from access to lower electricity prices than they would have experienced under regulation have experienced under regulation ••Similar to other industries, over time competition will continue to force the residential Similar to other industries, over time competition will continue to force the residential price down price down ••The Texas retail electric market is developing more quickly than other restructured The Texas retail electric market is developing more quickly than other restructured industries (e.g., telecom) industries (e.g., telecom) 1 CompetitiveResidential price based on 15% discount to TXU PTB as currently offered by market competitors, e.g., Cirro (14.6%); Competitive large business rates include 10% wholesale gross up and 5% net margin; Regulated world assumes 9.6 GW added capacity in the rate base (as opposed to 22GW actually built) at a cost of $600/kw, O&M costs approximately $36/kw-yr resulting in an average cost of $127/kw-yr in the rate base Source: TXU, ECOM model 28
  • 31. …Evidenced By The Competitive Large Business Rates… Average large business rates1 02-04; $ / MWh 76 72 64 61 61 56 53 52 51 49 44 Xcel-SPS CPS San N Texas Houston Entergy Gulf City of Progress Entergy FPL Tampa El Paso Antonio competitive competitive States - Austin Energy Louisiana Electric Electric Texas Annual load 12.0 --- 61.3 38.2 23.8 5.6 15.3 20.3 44.1 8.4 3.2 TWh ••Even with high gas prices, North Texas customers have access to some of the lowest Even with high gas prices, North Texas customers have access to some of the lowest rates in the Southern United States rates in the Southern United States ••“Of the companies relocating jobs (from California), 35% are sending them to Texas –– “Of the companies relocating jobs (from California), 35% are sending them to Texas more than all of the other 48 states combined,” Dallas Business Journal more than all of the other 48 states combined,” Dallas Business Journal 1 Based on a 2.5 MW customer with a 80% load factor; average monthly price weighted by load; assumes price remains constant Sep 04 –Dec 04 Source: PUCT, Florida PSC 29
  • 32. …And Competitive Residential Rates Average residential customer(1000 KWh/month) retail rates1 02-04; $ / MWh 108 94 86 83 83 82 81 81 81 79 76 68 Xcel-SPS CPS San N Texas Houston City of Entergy FPL Progress Entergy Gulf Tampa El Paso Georgia3 2 2 Antonio competitive competitive Austin Louisiana States - Electric Electric Texas Annual load 3.3 7.3 42 21.5 3.6 128.0 8.8 50.9 18.8 9.5 8.0 1.9 TWh Even with high gas prices residential customers in competitive ERCOT areas Even with high gas prices residential customers in competitive ERCOT areas have access to some of the lowest rates in the Southern United States have access to some of the lowest rates in the Southern United States 1 Based on average monthly prices weighted by monthly usage; prices through Sep 04; assumes price remains constant through remainder of 04 2 Competitive Residential price based on 15% discount to TXU PTB as currently offered by market competitors, e.g., Utility Choice (14.9%), and Cirro (14.6%) 3Average of all rates in Georgia (Southern, Municipalities, Electric Membership Cooperatives) Source: PUCT, Florida PSC, Georgia PSC 30
  • 33. Although There Is Still Room For Improvement In ERCOT, It Does Not Require Legislative Action Market design or governance element Potential improvement Establish additional tools and mechanisms for Retail market retailers to control bad debt Send clearer signals for generators to respond to Wholesale market design demand, manage production and balance load Implement additional incentives or mandates to Delivery regulation ensure adequate delivery capacity to meet market needs ••The potential exists to create additional value for the customer by removing The potential exists to create additional value for the customer by removing inefficiency in the market inefficiency in the market ••The SB7 framework remains sound; market participants and the PUC will The SB7 framework remains sound; market participants and the PUC will continue to work together to achieve greater efficiencies continue to work together to achieve greater efficiencies 31
  • 34. Today’s Discussion Key questions How has restructuring impacted Impact of Impact of other industries? restructuring in restructuring in other industries other industries How has restructuring impacted ERCOT market ERCOT market the Texas wholesale and retail restructuring restructuring markets? What are TXU’s strategic priorities? Implications for Implications for TXU TXU 32
  • 35. Incumbents Have Generally Had Problems Making The Transition From The Regulated World To The Deregulated World Annual total return to shareholders (CAGR) 83-03; Percent 13.0 6.9 5.7 5.8 3.5 3.1 -2.0 -5.1 -6.3 S&P 500 American Delta United AT&T Qwest MCI Ryder Yellow Airlines Telecom Trucking Deregulated incumbents have generally severely underperformed the broader Deregulated incumbents have generally severely underperformed the broader market market Source: Compustat 33
  • 36. How Do We Prevent Ourselves From Falling Into The Same Trap As Other Incumbents? “The brief booms that airlines occasionally enjoyed in the “The brief booms that airlines occasionally enjoyed in the 1980s and 1990s encouraged them to believe that radical 1980s and 1990s encouraged them to believe that radical change wasn’t necessary. Change didn’t happen fast enough change wasn’t necessary. Change didn’t happen fast enough because it was always a moving target,” because it was always a moving target,” Alfred Kahn, Chairman of Civil Aeronautics Board Alfred Kahn, Chairman of Civil Aeronautics Board 34
  • 37. Relentless Focus On The Three Critical Performance Drivers Is Critical Operational Excellence Market Leadership • Top decile reliability • Superior customer service/ brand management • Industry leading capacity factors • Value based pricing • World class industrial • Asset/supply optimization production costs • Commodity risk management • Lean corporate SG&A • Profitable growth Performance Management • High performance culture • Balanced cascading scorecards • Incentives linked to key value drivers 35
  • 38. TXU Energy Overview January 2005
  • 39. TXU Energy Is One Of TXU’s Three Core Businesses, With Similar Performance Levers Strategy Objectives Implementation • Cost leadership • Top decile cost • TXU operating performance system(lean) • Operational excellence • Top decile production • Strategic performance sourcing TXU Power • Commercial • Excellent customer service • Customer excellence experience • Retain and grow profitable Today’s • Customer • Cost leadership customer base Focus segmentation • Market leadership • Top decile purchased power performance TXU Energy • Cost leadership • Achieve industry leading • TXU operating safety performance system(lean) • Operational excellence • Top decile reliability • Strategic sourcing • Top decile cost performance • Technological TXU Electric innovation Delivery • Earn allowable return 1
  • 40. Operational Earnings Performance Drivers 04E vs. 05E; $ per diluted share Performance Driver 05E 04E operational earnings outlook range 2.65 – 2.70 Change in average diluted shares outstanding 0.90 TXU Power Increased revenues from wholesale market price changes 1.45 Reduced O&M expenses (operating, benefit, lease, other) 0.20 Increased production from coal generation 0.11 Reduced fuel expense 0.04 Increased expenses related to two-unit nuclear outage (O&M, purchased power) (0.27) TXU Energy Increased expenses from wholesale market price changes (1.49) Increased revenues from 04 fuel factor adjustments and out of territory growth 0.82 Reduced SG&A expenses (CapGemini Energy contract, bad debt) 0.37 Reduced expense – purchased power and gas plant optimization, restructured PPAs 0.28 Increased revenues from 2/05 fuel factor adjustment (50% of $6.92 fuel factor) 0.16 Increased margin in large business segment 0.15 Reduced O&M expenses (gas plants) 0.13 Reduced expenses and revenue losses due to hedge roll-off 0.11 Reduced wires expense 0.06 Reduced margin from mass market customer churn (0.04) TXU Electric Delivery Increased contribution margin 0.25 Corporate & Other (0.03) Other 0.08 Interest expense (0.24) 05E operational earnings outlook range 5.65 - 5.85 1) Operational Earnings Per Share (a non-GAAP measure): Per Share (diluted) income from continuing operations, excluding special items and net of preference share dividends. TXU forecasts earnings on an operational earnings basis because forecasts of material non-recurring items are not practical. TXU relies on operational earnings for evaluation of performance and believes that analysis of the business by external users is enhanced by visibility to both reported GAAP earnings and operational earnings. 0
  • 41. TXU PTB Gas Price Base Has Increased 210% Since Market Open Historical Gas Prices vs. Forward Curve 01-05; $/MMBtu 20 day rolling 8.50 average of 12 month forward 8.00 curve1 7.50 7.00 Current PTB 6.50 base = $6.52 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 Daily NYMEX gas prices 3.00 2.50 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Jul-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 3
  • 42. TXU Energy Consists of 3 Market-Facing, Customer-Centered Businesses Consumer Business Wholesale Consumer Business Wholesale Markets Markets Markets Markets Markets Markets (Retail residential (Retail small business (Wholesale (Retail residential (Retail small business (Wholesale customers) thru large industrials) counterparties) customers) thru large industrials) counterparties) Jim Burke Kevin Bohn Larry Leverett Jim Burke Kevin Bohn Larry Leverett Focus: Retain in- Focus: Retain PTB Focus: Optimize and Focus: Retain in- Focus: Retain PTB Focus: Optimize and territory PTB customers and balance supply and territory PTB customers and balance supply and customers and acquire profitably contract for load portfolios for customers and acquire profitably contract for load portfolios for out-of-territory non-PTB load lowest cost and out-of-territory non-PTB load lowest cost and customers highest margin customers highest margin …enabled by support functions and CapGemini Energy …enabled by support functions and CapGemini Energy Commercial Management: Dung Tran Commercial Management: Dung Tran Strategy and Communications: Brian Tulloh Strategy and Communications: Brian Tulloh Regulatory and Legal: Bill Moore Regulatory and Legal: Bill Moore 4
  • 43. Key Focus Areas For TXU Energy • Retain in-territory customers • Retain in-territory customers • Capture profitable LCI, out-of-territory customers • Capture profitable LCI, out-of-territory customers • Reduce bad debt • Reduce bad debt • Lower cost of supply and ancillary services • Lower cost of supply and ancillary services • Lower business costs (operating systems and efficient • Lower business costs (operating systems and efficient business processes) business processes) • Improve performance management • Improve performance management • Participate in public policy issues (e.g., PTB) • Participate in public policy issues (e.g., PTB) • Develop growth opportunities • Develop growth opportunities 5
  • 45. Consumer Markets Overview Planned Topics Market Context Organizational Approach Pricing and Economics Customer Service Initiatives Marketing Initiatives 7
  • 46. TXU Energy Is The Largest Retailer In A Growing Competitive Market Large competitive customer base High growth 03; Millions of customers 03 -12E; Percent annual demand growth 2.3 1.6 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.8 1.4 0.2 0.1 TXU RRI CPL/ First Green ERCOT SERC WECC MAAC MAIN WTU/ Choice Mountain FRCC ECAR MAPP SPP NPCC Direct Energy Source: KEMA Source: NERC Highly competitive market TXU market share1 02 -04; Number of certified ERCOT retailers September 04; Percent 45 33 32 90 75 56 39 Residential Small Large 01 02 03 04E Commercial Commercial TXU Load2 (TWh, 9 mos) 26.6 8.6 19.9 Source: PUC Source: TXU 10Q 1 Market share represents share of electric meters for residential and small commercial, share of sales volumes for large commercial. 8 2 TXU Retail load for 1st three quarters of 2004, per 10Q
  • 47. In-Territory Consumer Retention Reversed The Trends Of 03 Quarter-end consumer count (based on number of meters) – North and South Texas Q4 02 – Q3 04; millions 2.5 2.3 5.0% 2.0 3.0% 1.8 1.5 Q402 Q103 Q203 Q303 Q403 Q104 Q204 Q304 NTX STX Despite increased competitive switching in the summer months, year to date Despite increased competitive switching in the summer months, year to date In-Territory customer attrition is down 40% versus the same period of 2003 In-Territory customer attrition is down 40% versus the same period of 2003 9
  • 48. The New Structure Drives Economics Throughout Organization SVP Consumer Markets Products/ South Texas North Texas Marketing Customer Ops Services Region Region Services What We Sell Integrated Business P&Ls Who and How We How We Sell Deliver Key Points • Consumer organization primary focus on P&L, Marketing and Customer Experience • Products and Services organization to innovate as well as manage existing portfolio (product mgmt) • Region Teams specifically focused on decision-making, financial performance, and integration • Marketing Services drives positioning, targeting, and channel management activities • Customer Operations focused on customer experience and relationship with CapGemini Energy 10
  • 49. Consumer Markets Initiatives Initiatives Commentary Complete team build out Capabilities to address retention, win- People back, acquisition and cost to serve/customer experience objectives Deliver on aggressive Protect customer profitability and In-territory customer retention plan mitigate loss rates, utilize PTB Retention flexibility as needed Deliver on Design and launch product Loyalty offerings, pre-paid meters, competitive offerings beyond price to beat outage notification expansion, whole- benefits house surge protection service Refine output based Introduce gain-sharing, improve CGE performance metrics customer experience, customer alliance satisfaction, 1st call resolution Out-of- Improve P&L focus and deliver Improve customer targeting, optimize territory positive EPS available list, coordinate channels profitability Drive accountability for supply Deliver P&L alignment through more COGS costs into the business and focus on biggest cost driver – cost of deliver lower bad debt costs energy (applies also to Business Mkts) 11
  • 50. Current Gas Prices Are Consistent With Our PTB, Following Q4 Spike Historical Gas Prices vs. Forward Curve 04-05; $/MMBtu 8.00 20 day rolling average of 12 month 7.50 forward curve1 Filing threshold 7.00 (+5%) = $6.84 Current PTB base 6.50 = $6.52 6.00 5.50 Daily NYMEX gas prices 5.00 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 1 Assumes all future prices are equal to forward curve as of January 14, 2005 12
  • 51. TXU Energy’s Headroom Remains The Lowest In Texas Current; cents/KWh 14 PTB - Incumbent TXU Energy-S TX Current 13 12 TXU Energy has 11 the lowest PTB in the state. 10 9 Includes 12-15-05 PTB increase in 8 WTU CPL Centerpoint TNMP TXUE Reliant and TNMP. 13.06 12.41 12.19 11.70 10.98 PTB - Incumbent 12.01 11.42 10.00 10.12 TXU Energy-S TX Current Based on 1,000KWh Estimated Headroom, %1 17-27% 20-24% 16-25% 10-24% 12-16% Estimated Residential ~3 ~ 10 ~ 26 ~4 ~ 40 Market Size, TWh/yr 13 1 Source: TXU Energy estimates
  • 52. Low And Volatile Headroom Creates Marketing Challenges For Attacking Retailers Margin history and outlook 02-06; Mixed measures Retail headroom1 7x24 power price2 Percent $/MWh 40% $70 Forward wholesale power price (right scale) 35% $60 30% $50 25% $40 20% $30 15% TXU retail headroom $20 10% (left scale) $10 5% 0% $0 02 03 04E 05E 06E 1 Headroom = (PTB – power cost – wires charges) / PTB; 02-04 based on actual headroom; 05+ based on rolling average of forward looking 12 months as of January 17th, 2005; assumes 7800 BTU/KWh heat rate 2 02-04 based on actual power prices; 05+ based rolling average of 12 month forward curve 14
  • 53. We Are Measuring Our Service Performance Through A More Robust Scorecard 03 Scorecard 05 Scorecard ASA, seconds IVR transit time, seconds Access Service level, X% within Y seconds ASA, seconds Satisfaction with CCA, % Customer satisfaction with CCA, % Interaction Satisfaction with IVR, % Customer satisfaction with IVR, % Web customer satisfaction, % Customer-reported FCR, % Customer-reported FCR, % Problem CCA QA First Call Resolution, % Resolution Repeat call within 24 hours, % None Satisfaction with bill accuracy, % Transaction Web transaction rate, % Delivery “late rate”, % Overall satisfaction with recent Overall satisfaction with TXUE, % Overall call, % Satisfaction with value-price offer, % Customer loyalty to TXU, % CapGemini Energy relationship is focused on alignment with CapGemini Energy relationship is focused on alignment with performance expectations and improvements performance expectations and improvements 15
  • 54. Customer Service Continues To Show Improvement … Average Speed of Answer 03 - 04; seconds 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 1 Excludes June 1 and June 2, the peak period for the storm that affected more than 1.3 million customers 16
  • 55. … Enabled By a Streamlined IVR From: To: A complex design A streamlined design Play outage message or directed to CCA queue; ASA 15 seconds Ways to pay menu Billing menu Electric IVR 2.2.1 Account 2.1 Account main menu balance balance 2.2.2 Payment 1 2.2 Ways 1.0 Outage locations to Pay 2.2.3 Mail 2.3 Make time to Pay* 2.0 Billing 100 2 Directed to CCA 2.4 Other queue; ASA 15 seconds 100 Existing 3.0 Existing 3 service menu service Reconnect IVR 3.1 Re- connect 3.2 Stop or Directed to CCA 4 4.0 New move queue; ASA service services 15 seconds 100 100 Directed to CCA queue, ASA 15 seconds •Simplicity and user friendly interfaces have enhanced the IVR •Simplicity and user friendly interfaces have enhanced the IVR •IVR transit times have improved by 32% since January 04 •IVR transit times have improved by 32% since January 04 17
  • 56. Bad Debt Initiatives Are Expected To Drive Out Transitional Inefficiencies TXU retail bad debt expense Initiatives to 99–04E; $ millions reduce bad debt: Start of Start of • Tighter deregulation deregulation disconnect rules 120 118 95- • More stringent 100 application of credit policies (e.g., deposits) • Aggressive ~ 55 49 prosecution of fraud 24 • Working with 16 stakeholders to develop new tools 99 00 01 02 03 04E to manage bad Long-term Target debt (e.g., payment history Key drivers of increase in bad debt expense: Key drivers of increase in bad debt expense: database) Ability of customers to change power providers to Ability of customers to change power providers to avoid loss of service avoid loss of service Insufficient disconnect options Insufficient disconnect options 18
  • 57. Brand Positioning Delivers On Core TXU Energy Value Proposition Across Texas Examples of how we deliver the value proposition Enhanced self-service tools (e.g. web provisioning with My Account) that allows customers more direct Easy to do control over their transactions business with Best-in-industry performance on key access measures (convenience) (i.e., 15 second ASA achieved, reduced IVR navigation by 32%) More timely/useful outage restoration information (Option 1) Whole House Surge Protection that protects all TXU Energy consumer Dependable household electronics from surges on three wires value proposition service (cable, phone, power) Further expansion of Authorized Dealer Network “Dependably serving our Customers with superior service, competitive pricing, Rewards+ loyalty program for TXU customers and innovative products” Lowest PTB in Texas and In-territory rate is among Competitive lowest rates TXU offers throughout the state price Pricing incentives for Retention and Win-back of valuable customers, with term commitments 19
  • 58. TXU Energy Rewards+ Program Overview Leverages AREP’s ability to offer “discounts” off PTB through loyalty program Consumer Benefit Only TXU Energy Customers can get savings at thousands of hotels and resorts, magazines, restaurants, and DVDs. Up to 45% discounts by using TXU Energy Reward Dollars Customers earn rewards points monthly Pilot in STX in 2004 for Residential and Commercial TXU Details State-wide category exclusivity Online program, with main TXU cost driven by communication costs Able to be leveraged for incentives for on-time payment, ebill, tenure, recurring payment, win- back Pilot target will be random sample of current customers 20
  • 60. Business Markets Overview Planned Topics Market Context Organizational Approach Key Initiatives 23
  • 61. Market Context ERCOT-wide SMB switching TXU delivered volumes to SMB (11/04) (TWh, YTD through Q3) 100% = 100% = ~13.9 GW1 0.96 million 10.0 Not with 8.6 24% Affiliate 62% REP 76% With Affiliate 38% REP 03 04 Load Source: TXU Corp. 10Q Meters Source: ERCOT ERCOT-wide LCI switching TXU delivered volumes to LCI (11/04) (TWh, YTD through Q3) 23.9 100% = 100% = 9.1 GW1 ~ 4,300 19.9 Not with Affiliate 64% 67% REP With Affiliate 36% 33% REP 03 04 Load Meters Estimated 39% 33% market share Source: ERCOT Source: TXU Corp. 10Q 24 1 Based on demand level at time of 8/7/03 ERCOT peak