Significant AI Trends for the Financial Industry in 2024 and How to Utilize Them
monsanto 02-15-05
1. BRETT BEGEMANN
Executive Vice President,
International
CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON
Agrochemicals Conference
London
Feb. 15, 2005
1
2. Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained in this presentation, such as statements concerning the company's anticipated
financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, currency impact, business and
financial plans and other non-historical facts are quot;forward-looking statements.quot; These statements are based on
current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that
involve risks and uncertainties, the company’s actual performance and results may differ materially from those
described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such
differences include, among others: the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to
Solutia Inc., litigation, intellectual property, regulatory compliance (including seed quality), environmental
contamination and antitrust; successful completion and operation of recent and proposed acquisitions;
fluctuations in exchange rates and other developments related to foreign currencies and economies; increased
generic and branded competition for the company's Roundup herbicide; the accuracy of the company’s estimates
and projections, for example, those with respect to product returns and grower use of our products and related
distribution inventory levels; the effect of weather conditions and commodity markets on the agriculture business;
the success of the company’s research and development activities and the speed with which regulatory
authorizations and product launches may be achieved; domestic and foreign social, legal and political
developments, especially those relating to agricultural products developed through biotechnology; the company’s
ability to successfully market new and existing products in new and existing domestic and international markets;
the company’s ability to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the company's ability to achieve and maintain
protection for its intellectual property; the effects of the company's accounting policies and changes in generally
accepted accounting principles; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs; and other risks and
factors detailed in the company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Undue reliance should
not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this release. The
company disclaims any current intention or obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements or any of
the factors that may affect actual results, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
2
3. Non-GAAP Financial Information
This presentation may use the non-GAAP financial measures of “free cash flow,” ongoing earnings per share (EPS),
and Return on Capital (ROC). We define free cash flow as the total of cash flows from operating activities and cash
flows from investing activities. A non-GAAP EPS financial measure, which we refer to as EPS on an ongoing basis,
may exclude the impact of restructuring charges, charges associated with the settlement of litigation, gains and
losses on the sale of assets, and certain other items. The specific items that are excluded from, and result in, our
non-GAAP EPS financial measure are clearly identified as such in this presentation. ROC means net income
exclusive of after-tax interest expenses, divided by the average of the beginning year and ending year net capital
employed, as defined in the reconciliation at the end of this presentation. The presentation of free cash flow,
ongoing EPS and ROC is intended to supplement investors’ understanding of our operating performance. These
non-GAAP financial measures may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies. Furthermore,
these non-GAAP financial measures are not intended to replace net income (loss), cash flows, financial position, or
comprehensive income (loss), as determined in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the
United States. The non-GAAP financial measures used in this presentation are reconciled to the most directly
comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP, which can be found at the end
of this presentation.
Fiscal Year
In this presentation, unless otherwise specified, references to Monsanto’s fiscal years refer to the 12-month period
ending August 31.
Trademarks
Roundup, Roundup Ready, Bollgard, Bollgard II, YieldGard and Vistive are trademarks owned by Monsanto
Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries.
3
4. Value Shift from Crop Chemicals to Seeds and Traits
Well Under Way
GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY REVIEW
1996 2003 2008F
$9.1 BILLION
$7.6 BILLION $8.4 BILLION
$0.1
$1.3
$2.7
$2.6
$3.0 $4.5
$3.5 $3.6
$3.8
CROP CHEMICALS GERMPLASM BIOTECH TRAITS
Sources: U.S. 1996-2003 Doane Agrotrak & Seed Studies; 2008 Monsanto estimates
Calendar years
4
5. MARKET LEADERSHIP
Seeds and Traits Are a Growing Contributor to
Monsanto’s Gross Profit
GROSS PROFIT
2001 2003 2005F PRO FORMA
$2.9 BILLION
$2.3 BILLION
$2.6 BILLION
5%
23%
30%
27%
47%
50%
56%
16%
23%
23%
ROUNDUP AND OTHER GLYPHOSATE-BASED SEEDS AND TRAITS
HERBICIDES
SEMINIS
ALL OTHER AG PRODUCTIVITY
5
6. MARKET LEADERSHIP
Monsanto Raises the Bar for Leadership in Global Seeds
with Addition of Seminis
2003 SEED AND TRAIT REVENUE
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$ MILLIONS
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
MONSANTO MONSANTO LIMAGRAIN SEMINIS BAYER SAKATA
PRO FORMA
DUPONT SYNGENTA KWS TAKII DELTA & DOW
PINE LAND
Sources: Phillips McDougall, Monsanto reports
Calendar year for all companies but Monsanto
Syngenta pro forma for acquisition of Advanta and Golden Harvest (Sources: Phillips McDougall and news releases)
6
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP - BREEDING
Improvements in Corn Seed Breeding Expanding EU/SA
Market Share U.S.
KEY MARKET ACRES EU S. AFRICA
BRAND LICENSED ASI
Corn 80M 30M 7M
AVAILABLE MARKET
Breeding
CREATING VALUE
14% 33% 2% 10% 43%
PERCENT PENETRATED
Monsanto’s branded corn germplasm out-yielded competitors’
• In 2005,
across EU mid-maturities and South Africa in 2004 trials
Monsanto’s
branded seed
Comparable performance in Mediterranean region versus
gained 2 market
share points in leading competitor
EU, 3 points in
Stronger pipeline under development for important EU silage
South Africa
market
• Elite, high-
CORN MARKET SHARE GROWTH
yielding
germplasm
refreshes
45%
12%
product portfolio 40%
10%
at high end of
pricing 8% 35%
• New licensing 6%
strategy for corn 30%
4%
in Europe/Africa
under 25%
2%
development
0% 20%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2001 2002 2003 2004
FRANCE SOUTH AFRICA
DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE III
PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH
Proof of Concept Adv. Development
Early Development Pre-Launch
7
8. MARKET LEADERSHIP - BREEDING
Vistive Moved from Discovery to Launch in Three Years
Through Molecular Breeding KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
Vistive 5M TBD TBD
AVAILABLE MARKET
Low Linolenic Soy
CREATING VALUE
0% 0% 0%
PERCENT PENETRATED
First of a three-product step-change in oil profiles
• Contract grown,
value shared. Most oil already under contract with food companies
Monsanto sells
Oil to be in on-the-shelf consumer products in late 2005
to growers,
processors pay
grower premium
OIL PROFILES ALONG THE 3-STEP CHANGE IMPROVEMENT
and royalty to
Monsanto after LINOLENIC LINOLEIC OLEIC SATS
harvest and 18:3 18:2 18:1 18:0 / 16:0
STANDARD
crushing SOYBEAN
• To be stacked
with Mid-Oleic
LOW LIN
before full
market
penetration is MID OLEIC +
LOW LIN
achieved
• 1 acre = ZERO SAT +
approximately MID OLEIC +
500 lbs. of oil LOW LIN
DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE III
PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH
Proof of Concept Adv. Development
Early Development Pre-Launch
8
9. MARKET LEADERSHIP - BREEDING
Seminis Has Largest, Most Diverse Germplasm Pool in
Vegetable Industry LATIN EUROPE- ASIA
KEY MARKET POSITION NAFTA AMERICA AFRICA PACIFIC
Vegetable 1 1 1 1
MARKET POSITION
Breeding
CREATING VALUE
Germplasm investment nearly double that of closest competitor
• Seminis branded
seed recognized Vegetable seed germplasm is proprietary, scarce
globally: Royal
75% of R&D devoted to breeding
Sluis, Petoseed,
Bruinsma, and
Between 20%-25% of commercial products come from new
Asgrow
hybrids introduced in prior two years
Vegetable
• Breeding valued
VEGETABLE FRESHNESS INDEX
for quality,
taste, health
25%
benefits, disease
control 20%
• New seeds have
15%
greatest pricing
opportunity 10%
5%
0%
2002 2003 2004 2005F
DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE III
PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH
Proof of Concept Adv. Development
Early Development Pre-Launch
9
10. MARKET LEADERSHIP - BIOTECHNOLOGY
Biotechnology Is Most Rapidly Adopted Technology in
History of Agriculture
GLOBAL MONSANTO PLANTED BIOTECH ACRES
180
CANOLA
160
COTTON
140
SOYBEANS
ACRES IN MILLIONS
120
CORN
100
80
60
40
20
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Monsanto estimates
10
11. MARKET LEADERSHIP - BIOTECHNOLOGY
Market Potential for Roundup Ready Corn is Poised to
Accelerate
KEY MARKET AREAS U.S. ARGENTINA
Roundup Ready TARGET MARKET 50M 5M
Corn
CREATING VALUE
PERCENT PENETRATED 32% <1%
Current forecast of 20M acres of Roundup Ready corn in
• U.S. trait fee of 2005 U.S. season
$8-$10 per acre
With European import approval for single trait, market potential
in Monsanto
branded seed now 50M acres in U.S.
• Grower profits
Production plans under way to accelerate growth in 2006
average of $12
per acre on yield U.S. ROUNDUP READY CORN ACREAGE GROWTH
gains alone; 25
additional cost
savings on labor,
20
fuel and MILLIONS OF ACRES
equipment
Provides grower 15
greater
flexibility in 10
weed control
5
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F
DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE III
PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH
Proof of Concept Adv. Development
Early Development Pre-Launch
11
13. MARKET LEADERSHIP - BIOTECHNOLOGY
Introduction of Ingard II Accelerates Monsanto’s
Growth in Australian Cotton Market
KEY MARKET AREAS U.S. AUSTRALIA
TARGET MARKET 10-15M 0.5-0.8M
Cotton Traits
CREATING VALUE
PERCENT PENETRATED 75% 80%
Biotech trait acreage has grown to approximately 600k acres
• Ingard II requires from 275k in 2004
an average of
More than two-thirds of cotton acres planted are Ingard II
85% less
insecticide than varieties
conventional
Approximately 50% of all biotech cotton acres are stacked
cotton
Ingard II and Roundup Ready
• Value reflects
better insect AUSTRALIA MONSANTO BIOTECH ACRES
protection,
higher yields, 100%
% TOTAL ACRES
farmer
80%
convenience and
flexibility 60%
40%
20%
0%
2003 2004 2005
Stacked Ingard/Ingard II RR Cotton
DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE III
PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH
Proof of Concept Adv. Development
Early Development Pre-Launch
13
14. INNOVATION - PIPELINE
Seeds and Traits R&D Is More Than Just Biotechnology;
Two Platforms Drive Pipeline Opportunities
PIPELINE EXAMPLES
ELITE CORN GERMPLASM
FARMER
PHASE IV
BENEFITS
SMALL-ACRE CROPS
Pre-Launch
BREEDING
PROCESSOR PREFERRED CORN
PROCESSOR
PHASE IV
BENEFITS
Pre-Launch
CONSUMER VISTIVE LOW-LIN SOYBEANS
LARGE-ACRE CROPS
BENEFITS PHASE IV
Pre-Launch
ROUNDUP READY FLEX COTTON
FARMER
BIOTECHNOLOGY
PHASE IV
BENEFITS
Pre-Launch
HIGH-LYSINE CORN
PROCESSOR PHASE IV
BENEFITS Pre-Launch
CONSUMER OMEGA-3 SOYBEANS
PHASE II
BENEFITS
Early Development
GENOMICS CONVENTIONAL MOLECULAR CROP ANALYTICS BIOTECHNOLOGY
BREEDING BREEDING
14
15. INNOVATION - BREEDING
Breeding Breakthrough Improves the Taste and
Mouth-Feel of Soy-Based Foods
KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
Improved-Protein <1M TBD TBD
AVAILABLE MARKET
Soybeans for Food
CREATING VALUE
0% 0% 0%
PERCENT PENETRATED
Created through breeding
• Contract grown,
technologies
value shared.
Monsanto sells Improves taste and mouth-
to growers,
feel
processors pay
grower premium Consumer applications in
and royalty to
beverages and meat
Monsanto after
alternatives
harvest and
crushing Developed with molecular
markers and analytical
• Small acres, but
high value per screenings to accelerate
acre breeding
Produced in high-yielding
varieties for testing
DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE III
PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH
Proof of Concept Adv. Development
Early Development Pre-Launch
15
16. INNOVATION - BREEDING
Molecular Breeding Can Be Applied to Seminis’ Sweet
Corn Breeding Programs
KEY MARKET POSITION WORLDWIDE
Knowledge Transfer MARKET POSITION 4
to Sweet Corn
CREATING VALUE
Immediate access to broad
• Breeding
corn germplasm base
knowledge
transfer Corn genotyping
increases
capabilities applicable
potential new
across all corn germplasm
product
including sweet corn
offerings
Enables efficient selection
• Molecular
breeding speeds for disease and quality
creation of new
traits using marker-
hybrids
assisted selection
• Accelerated
genetic gains
have potential to
translate to
market share
gains, higher
market value
DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE III
PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH
Proof of Concept Early Development Adv. Development Pre-Launch
16
17. INNOVATION - BIOTECHNOLOGY
Added Flexibility Means Better Weed Control, Greater
Value in Cotton
KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. AUSTRALIA
Roundup Ready AVAILABLE MARKET 10-15M 0.5-0.8M
Flex Cotton
CREATING VALUE
0% 0%
PERCENT PENETRATED
Expanded window of over-the-top application for more
• Value reflects “flexible” weed control
greater
convenience and Increased grower convenience
enhanced weed
Reduced need for specialized spray equipment
control. Lifts the
value of the
8 cotton seed companies currently breeding trait into
Roundup Ready
varieties
trait
• Roundup Ready
Flex Cotton will
be available only
with Bollgard II,
which also
should boost
Bollgard II
adoption
DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE III
PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH
Proof of Concept Adv. Development
Early Development Pre-Launch
17
18. INNOVATION - BIOTECHNOLOGY
High Lysine Enhances Animal Feed, Shifts
Value to Seed
KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
High Lysine Corn
4M 1M 4M
AVAILABLE MARKET
CREATING VALUE
0% 0% 0%
PERCENT PENETRATED
• Market value for Lower cost of animal
feed-grade feed ration – lysine –
lysine in roughly
which cannot be
$1 billion
produced by animals,
annually
so must be obtained
• Value shared
through feed
with Cargill
through 50/50 LYSINE TOTALS IN TESTING
Improved amino acid
Renessen joint
balance
venture
WITH GENE
CONTROL
Increased total energy
1,800
FREE LYSINE (PPM)
1,600
TARGET
Excellent performance 1,400
demonstrated in
1,200
1,000
feeding trials to date 800
First of a two-product 600
step-change in lysine
400
200
content 0
U.S.
SOUTH AMERICA
DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE III
PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH
Proof of Concept Adv. Development
Early Development Pre-Launch
18
19. INNOVATION - BIOTECHNOLOGY
Drought Stress Tolerance Will Be a Family of High
Value Traits
KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
Drought-Tolerant TBD TBD TBD
AVAILABLE MARKET
Corn
CREATING VALUE
0% 0% 0%
PERCENT PENETRATED
Yield protection on all acres against water deficits
• Pricing depends
Yield enhancement on all acres through improved water use
on choice of
and cost savings on irrigated acres
market
• Stacking with Two gene leads obtained positive results with more than one
weed and insect
transformed event
control
enhances the YIELD INCREASE IN TWO GENE TRIALS
margin
opportunity 3 EVENTS: GENE 1 3 EVENTS: GENE 2
18
30 16
• Irrigation
currently costs 14
25
$50 to $100 per
YIELD INCREASE
12
20
acre 10
15 8
6
(BU/AC)
10
4
5
2
0 0
EVENT 3
EVENT 1 EVENT 2 EVENT 3
EVENT 1 EVENT 2
GERMPLASM 1 GERMPLASM 2
DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE III
PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH
Proof of Concept Adv. Development
Early Development Pre-Launch
19
20. FINANCIAL GROWTH
Gross Profit Growth Accelerates with Addition of Seminis to
Monsanto Businesses
GROSS PROFIT
MONSANTO PRO FORMA1 MONSANTO SEED/TRAIT
PRO FORMA1
7% CAGR AGR
5% C
1
$3,500
$3,500
$3,000
$3,000
$2,500
$ MILLIONS
$ MILLIONS
$2,500
$2,000
$2,000
$1,500
$1,500
$1,000
$1,000
$500
$500
$0
$0
2004 2005F 2006F
2004 2005F 2006F
ROUNDUP AND OTHER
ALL OTHER
SEEDS AND TRAITS
GLYPHOSATE-BASED
HERBICIDES
Pro forma for acquisition of Seminis
1
20
21. FINANCIAL GROWTH
Guidance for Ongoing EPS Reflects Addition of
Seminis Earnings
EPS ON AN ONGOING BASIS
$2.50 • 2005 guidance range
increased to
$2.25 $1.85 to $2.00
• 10% base business
$2.00 growth for 2006
expected on
$1.75 increased 2005
guidance
$1.50 • Earnings in 2005 and
2006 affected by
$1.25 Seminis inventory
step-up
$1.00 • Seminis is expected
to be $0.20 accretive
2004A 2005F 2006F to Monsanto in 2007
PRO FORMA FOR
BASE MONSANTO UPSIDE MONSANTO
ACQUISITION OF
GUIDANCE GUIDANCE
SEMINIS
21
22. FINANCIAL GROWTH
Acquisition Also Contributes to Free Cash Generation
Near-Term
Seminis expected
FREE CASH FLOW
to generate $50M
free cash in 2005
and $75M in 2006
GUIDANCE
PRE-
$950
Current $500M
ACQUISIITON
share repurchase
$700
program will
continue;
$450
scheduled
$200 completion July
2006
-$50 2006F
2005F
2004
Dividends will
continue to be
-$300
considered to
GUIDANCE
-$550 return additional
POST-
value to
ACQUISITION
-$800
shareowners
PRO FORMA FOR ACQUISITION OF SEMINIS
22
23. A Clear Focus To Deliver On Commitments
Market Leadership
Largest global seed and trait company
Global reach in high-value agriculture segments
Technological Innovation
Leading breeding and biotechnology platforms
Proven, highly productive new product pipeline
Financial Growth
EPS and free cash flow growth reflect seeds and traits
leadership
Commitment to return value to shareowners through
dividends, share repurchases, investments
23
24. Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow
Fiscal Year 2006 Fiscal Year 2005 12 Months Ended
$ Millions
Target Target Aug. 31, 2004
Net Cash Provided (Required) by Operations $975 $1,050 $1,261
Net Cash Provided (Required) by Investing Activities $(300) $(1,800) $(262)
Free Cash Flow $675 $(750) $999
Net Cash Provided (Required) by Financing Activities N/A N/A $(243)
Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents N/A N/A $756
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP EPS
$ per share 12 Months Ended 12 Months Ended 12 Months Ended
Aug. 31, 2004 Aug. 31, 2005 Aug. 31, 2006
Net Income (Loss) $0.99 $0.86-$1.06 $2.04 - $2.22
--
$0.36 --
Restructuring Charges -- Net
2004 Discontinued Operations and Related $0.02 -- --
Restructurings-- Net
Goodwill Impairment Charge for Global Wheat $0.24 -- --
Business
-- --
Estimated Purchase Accounting Adjustments $0.65 -- $0.70
-
--
Tax Benefit on Loss from Sale of European Wheat and -- $(0.39)
Barley Business
-- --
$0.68
Solutia-Related Charge
Net Income (Loss) from Ongoing Business $1.61 $1.85 - $2.00 $2.04 - $2.22
24