The document debunks 7 common myths about strategic market intelligence: 1) It does not need to be complex, simple analysis can provide insights. 2) It does not always need to be costly, free online data is often sufficient. 3) Data does not need to be 100% accurate to make decisions, around 80% is sufficient. 4) External agencies are not always needed, much information can be found online for free.

1. 7 Myths about Market Intelligence
-how to build valuable market insights quickly and cheaply as basis for
strategic decision taking-
frederic de meyer
founder
institute for future insights
frederic@i4fi.com
www.i4fi.com
www.fredericdemeyer.com
@fdmeyer
fdemeyer
instituteforfutureinsights

2. Aim of this presentation
Show how to perform market intelligence in an easy,
impactful and cost-efficient way as a vital contribution to
strategic decisions at any level within a company…
…by debunking 7 myths around market intelligence

3. Myth #1: strategic market intelligence is
complex
Hell no, not always !
Very often the bleeding obvious is
omitted… bottom line thinking
and simple cross-checks can do
miracles !

4. Myth #2: strategic market intelligence is costly
Decision area
Not necessarily !
Dependent on the type of
decision you need to make,
strategic intelligence can be
costless
…although paying for
additional information can
prove crucial

5. A
Myth #3: data needs to be 100% accurate to
make decisions based on them
No it doesn’t !
There is no such thing as 100%
accurate data…
furthermore, you shouldn’t
mind if the data is 80%, 82.5%
or 84.7332% accurate, just as
long as you can make
successful decisions based on
them!
illusion/delusion
A
A
A
A
A, C
A, C, D
A, B, C, D
Strategic options: A, B, C, D, E
?

6. Myth #4: you need an external agency to gather
strategic data
Not necessarily !
The internet is loaded with
free data and market
insights… a thorough and
systematic search can do a
great part of the job!
(free statistics)
(professional organizations –technology examples)
(free market insights)

7. Quickly assess quality and usefulness of online
sources

8. Free sources for competitive assessments

9. www.epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu
Free sources to assess your business environment

10. Monitoring Economic Sentiment
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
GDPChanges
EconomicSentiment
EU (27) Economic Sentiment vs.
Real GDP changes (Volumes)
Economic Sentiment (at end of quarter, seasonally adj.)
GDP Quarterly y/y Growth (Market Price, seasonally adj.)
Source: Eurostat, chart built by Cisco MBI
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
EconomicSentiment Indicator, selected
countries
Germany
Spain
France
Italy
UK
Source: Eurostat, chart built by Cisco MBI
- Correlations with revenue? Orders?
- Short-term expectations of these countries/industries
- How hard will business conditions be in next couple of months?

11. Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Switzerland
UK
-1
0
1
2
3
4
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6
RealGDPgrowth2010
WEF Country Competitiveness Index
SOURCE: WEF, IMF, chart by Cisco MBI
Segmenting countries based on freely available data

12. Myth #5: strategic intelligence = 200 slides per
question
Don’t ask for them !
Ask for that single chart that
exactly answers your question
and helps you make that one
decision…
(but think about it thoroughly
before you do)
Japan
North America
South Am.
Europe
CIS
MEA
Asia
China
Pasttechnologyadoption
Business environment
Geographic priotizationintruduction
new technology [X]
Bubble size:Ease of doing business
FavorableUnfavorable
High
Low
SAMPLE CHART, i4fi

13. Myth #6: strategic intelligence is unambiguous
Dig deeper!
If a market view leads to
different conclusions, it means
you haven’t drilled down to a
sufficient level of detail…
Which market is most promising?

14. Myth #6: strategic intelligence is unambiguous
Which market is most promising? Not necessarily the biggest one…

15. Myth #7: interpreting market data is easy
Hell no, not always !
Simple conclusions often hide
some inconvenient truths… the
devil is in the detail !
Our addressable market
is growing with 10%. So,
provided we keep the
same market share, our
turnover will grow with
10% as well
Even if we keep the same
market share in each of
our markets, our overall
share and turnover might
decline

16. Sometimes interpreting market data can be counter-
intuitive…
Year X
Market size Revenue Market Share
Segment A 60 36 60%
Segment B 15 3 20%
Segment C 10 2 20%
Segment D 10 2 20%
Segment E 5 1 20%
100 44 44%
Year X+1
Market growth Market Size
Revenue @
same market
share
2% 61,2 36,72
25% 18,75 3,75
25% 12,5 2,5
25% 12,5 2,5
50% 7,5 1,5
112,45 46,97
Market growth: 12,5%
Revenu growth: 6,8%
Market Share X+1: 41,8%
Even if you keep the
same market share in
every market, your
overall market share
might decline

17. Some key advise…
• Don’t try to reach 100% accuracy… 80% is fine, just as long as the
conclusions are 100% successful;
• Don’t spend too much money, think about what you can do yourself, or
through free sources;
• Don’t underestimate the amount of vital information you already have
internally, try to gather it structurally;
• Combine different sources and views to get to new insights;
• Don’t over-complicate, few datapoints given in a new way can lead to the
right results;
• Turn your Market & Business Intelligence needs into ‘critical business
questions’;
• Share findings with partners, channels, employees, shareholders, …

18. website www.i4fi.com
blog www.fredericdemeyer.com
mail frederic@i4fi.com
twitter @fdemeyer
for useful long-term planning tools: http://www.i4fi.com/useful_tools.html
discover our services
(freelance or project based)
• Competitive assessments;
• Trend assessments;
• Strategic positioning;
• Investment priotization;
• Market opportunity assessments
discover the book
“Frederic offers a unique
insight of how global
changes translate into new
business opportunities. This
book is an essential tool for
any future-oriented manager
or entrepreneur and anyone
involved in innovation
strategies”
Philippe De Ridder, co-
founder, Board of
Innovation
Available on

19. www.i4fi.com
www.fredericdemeyer.com
additional questions: frederic@i4fi.com
helping you anticipate the
future…

20. A concrete example
Critical business question:
• In which countries do we invest the limited resources
(headcount and budget) in order to maximize the success of the
introduction of a new technology ?

21. Step 1: creating ‘Leading Indicators’ based on freely
available data
Business Context Index Internal readiness Index Industry relevance Index
Economic size UC 3yr growth Retail (Retail IT vs Total IT, IDC)
Composit Leading Ind. (OECD) SAN 3yr growth Media (IPTV & Cable household penetration)
Economic Sentiment DMS Total Bookings size Finance (weight of Top10 banks per country)
Addressable Market Size DMS % Total Bookings Education (Internet in School ranking WEF)
e-Readiness (WEF) # DMS channels Government (presence of ICT in Gov offices)
ICT development index (WEF) DMS Bookings vs # Partners
Composit Indicator 1 Composit Indicator 2 Composit Indicator 3
Economy size: Composit
Leading Ind.
(OECD)
Economic
Sentiment:
TAM size: e-Readiness ICT
development
index
AVG
UKI UKI 2 4 11 1 4 7 4.8
Nordics Sweden 8 11 1 9 1 1 5.2
France France 3 3 3 3 11 11 5.7
Alpine Switzerland 11 2 (na) 7 5 5 6.0
Germany Germany 1 14 4 2 9 8 6.3
Italy Italy 4 5 5 4 12 10 6.7
Benelux Netherlands 6 12 12 6 3 3 7.0
Alpine Austria 10 7 6 12 6 9 8.3
MED Spain 5 8 7 5 13 13 8.5
Nordics Denmark 14 13 10 10 2 2 8.5
Nordics Norway 12 9 (na) 11 7 4 8.6
Nordics Finland 15 6 2 15 8 6 8.7
Benelux Belux 7 10 8 8 10 12 9.2
MED Greece 9 1 13 16 15 15 11.5
MED Portugal 13 15 9 14 14 14 13.2
(country ranking, lesser score = most favorable)

22. Step 2: create ‘segments’ with conclusions
Source: Cisco MBI Methodology
Ideal world
Seed
Harvest
Wait
Ideal World:
- Favorable business environment and DMS
penetration;
- Focus on leveraging current success and
‘cross the chasm’;
Harvest:
- Difficult business environment but good
DMS penetration;
- Focus on deepening current deals and
customers;
Seed:
- Good business environment and prospects
but low DMS penetration;
- Focus on new customers and prospects
(cross the chasm);
Wait:
- Unfavorable business environment and poor
DMS penetration;
- Focus on marketing and channels to ‘make
market’

23. Step 3: Mapping countries in the segments
Source: Various
The Bubble Size is an indication of the amount of core DMS industries that are
attractive in a specific country (see slide 8). As such, it can also be interpreted as
how ‘labor intensive’ the coverage of this opportunity would be (bigger bubble =
more resources or various skills needed).
Ideal World:
- UK, Germany & Italy
- UK and Germany would require more
resources/ vertical skills;
Harvest:
- Denmark, Spain, Belgium, Greece
- Denmark and Belgium would require
relatively more resources, Spain and Greece
focus on limited # industries;
Seed:
- Sweden, France, Switzerland and
Netherlands;
- More of a ‘Business Development’ function ?
Wait:
- Finland, Austria, Norway, Portugal
- Invest in Marketing efforts ?