Here are some potential consequences of technological trends on HRM functions: - Gamification, crowdsourcing and AR could be used for recruitment (e.g. gamified assessments), training (e.g. AR simulations), and performance management (e.g. gamified goal setting). - These technologies may improve the candidate and employee experience, but require HR to develop new digital skills around project design and management. - Pressure to adopt new technologies could come from candidates/employees who are digital natives, as well as cost reduction objectives. - Adoption requires balancing potential benefits with risks like technical issues, privacy concerns, and employee distraction/fatigue. - HR may need to facilitate organizational change management

1. Long-term HRM strategy
- turning HR into a crucial instrument for the long-term success of your company-
frederic de meyer
founder
institute for future insights
frederic@i4fi.com
www.i4fi.com
www.fredericdemeyer.com
@fdemeyer

2. Catching up
Who are you?
How are you doing?
How is your company dealing with long-term trends?
What do you expect from this session?

3. About me…
Sept 2011 – now
Jan 2001 – Sept 2011
Sept 1999 – Dec 2000
Dec 1998 – Sept 1999
July 1998 – Nov 1998
Sept 1997 – June 1998
Sept 1995 – Aug 1997
<1995

4. Agenda
Meeting up & expectations
Part 1: zooming in on megatrends
• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate
strategy;
• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and
industries;
• Trends affecting other functions in the organization;
• Specific trends affecting HRM
Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends
• Megatrends exercise step-by-step
• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)
• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)

5. Some housekeeping rules
• Do not hesitate to interrupt me
• What is obvious to me is not necessarily obvious to you…
please ask !!!
• I’m not almighty …

6. Agenda
Meeting up & expectations
Part 1: zooming in on megatrends
• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate
strategy;
• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and
industries;
• The future of organizations and its impact on HRM;
• Specific trends affecting HRM
Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends
• Megatrends exercise step-by-step
• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)
• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)

7. why do I have to bother about
long-term trends?

8. let’s start with a challenge:
what do these have in common?

9. here’s a hint…
In 2002 Barbie lost its Until 2006 Coca Cola
Ford almost got out of market predominance was boycotted GM’s Hummer saw
business in the early to a new competitor multiple times in India sales drop 85% from
1900’s for sticking to it who just entered this due to its water 2006 to 2009
standardized products market the year mismanagement
before practices

10. sometimes long-term shifts do have
short-term consequences!

11. before we start… what are megatrends exactly?
one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...
an increasing number of hurricanes in the US
is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend
a worldwide increase in number and intensity of
hurricanes would be a megatrend
and the consequences might trigger new
(mega)trends

12. my ‘rules of thumb’
• long-lasting
• amplifying
• cause disruptive shift
• have a global impact
• ... almost feel inevitable
(not prone to change of taste or mood, lobby)

13. Which role should the megatrend exercise play in your
corporate strategy?
Lobby;
Mood;
Adoption;
Regulation Opportunities
-go-to-market innovation;
- new products/services
Fashion Corporate
Tastes
Communities Trends Execution
Threats
Opinion makers (tactics) -miss the boat;
Mood
- existing competion
Predictions
Black Swans Opportunities
- business Model Innovation;
Environment - gain efficiency,
Demographic shifts Corporate competitiveness
Regulations Megatrends Strategy
Macro-economy
Political shifts Threats
-irrelevance;
- new competitors
Scenario
Planning
Frederic De Meyer

14. What the megatrend exercise is all about
Opportunities
- business Model Innovation;
Environment - gain efficiency,
Demographic shifts Corporate competitiveness
Regulations Megatrends strategy
Macro-economy
Political shifts Threats
-irrelevance;
- new competitors

15. Companies that grew new opportunities based on
megatrends
• Trend: Rising middle class in Emerging
– Tata Nano Car
Benefit from rising middle-class in India who want
cheap, no-thrill car to replace motorbikes and obtain
‘car-driver’ status
• Trend: Ageing population, talent scarcety
– Cisco Health Presence
Less mobile but growing elderly population will need
remote access to health. Less young people will lead
to talent scarcity, remote doctors could be located
anywhere in the world.
• Trend: Mass customization, Do it Yourself
– Nike and many many others
Offer multiple customization possibilities

16. Companies that built new business models based on
megatrends...
• Trend: Global Grid, desintermediation,
crowdsourcing
– Peer-to-peer lending
Companies like Prosper and Zopa organize peer-to-
peer lending, making the task of a bank redundant.
– Fan Funding
Companies like Sellaband and Sonicangels enables
anounymous funding of musicians for a share of
potential revenue, making the intervention of music
label companies redundant.
– Crowdsourcing
Marketing, advertisement, innovation, problem
solving, consumer-generated design, ...
Crowdsourcing moves into all segments

17. Companies that shaped their organization and vision to
megatrends
• Trend: Sustainability, Ageing Polulation,
Urbanization, Rising middle-class, ...
– Siemens
Communication on how each of Siemens’ Business
Unit is responding to a specific megatrend challenge...
Very effective corporate branding.
• Trend: Ageing Polulation
– GlaxoSmithKline
Vision statement completely aligned with Ageing
Population trend
‘Do more, feel better, live longer’

18. in fact, megatrends could potentially transform many
areas of your business…
external
new new business new needs of new customer
competitors models customers segments
megatrends
internal
new talents and new marketing new new go-to- new production
competencies mix ecosystems market models processes

19. Agenda
Meeting up & expectations
Part 1: zooming in on megatrends
• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate
strategy;
• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and
industries;
• Trends affecting other functions in the organization;
• Specific trends affecting HRM
Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends
• Megatrends exercise step-by-step
• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)
• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)

20. There’s different types of megatrends
trends we can be trends that are taking shape but a tiny bit
relatively certain of: future impact relatively uncertain: speculative:
DEMOGRAPHIC TECHNOLOGY
• aging population • ubiquitous computing • consumerization
• increasing world population • disintermediation (BYOD)
• genY/Milennials • crowdsourcing • augmented Reality
• urbanization/geographic mobility • social Media • 3D printing
• multi-ethnic society • SaaS, DIY • enhanced humans
• widening gap rich-poor • cloud Computing
SUSTAINABILITY BUSINESS TRENDS
• global warming • shared value (CSR) • decentralization
• scarcity of resources • social Entrepreneurship • gamification
• energy dependency • Cause marketing • virtualization
• declining biodiversity • social Business • new business models
• green technologies • open inno/sourcing
CONSUMER GEOPOLITICS
• mass customization • radical transparency • power shift to East • trade blocs and unions
• social buying • globalization 3.0 • trade blocs and unions
• the Market State
• sustainable/ethical buying • rising middle class • the Market State
• Virtual currencies
SOCIETY
• dematerialization • talent shortage
(digitization) • boundary blurring
• digital divide

21. look beyond the obvious…
megatrends sometimes do have unsuspected consequences
desintermediation
impact obvious
retail shops
did loose some business already
through direct selling/ ecommerce music industry
some fan-funding models have gone
banking broke, others getting successful
peer-to-peer lending growing from
800m$ to 3b$ this year
marketing
crowdsourcing and open innovation
eating away share
head hunting
recruitment websites and social media
are being used for talent search IT services
‘do it yourself’ concepts are getting
mainstream
health care
‘peer-to-peer’ health provision projects
arise in US
Consulting
get instant / online / mass-customized
advise?
Governments
direct redistribution of wealth?
impact less obvious

22. look beyond the obvious…
industries can be affected indirectly by trends
transport
impact obvious
Global warming Power shift to
Legislation imposed on transport
Rising middle class in emerging
New growth opportunities
emerging
Impact on costs (oil)
Shared value urbanization
Corporate image More difficult to reach end customer
3D printing
Less need for transport of goods?
Radical transparency/
LCA
Adapt to client demand Cradle to cradle Virtualization
Adapt processes Less need for transport?
GenY
Preference for ‘clean’ responsible
businesses
impact less obvious

23. look beyond the obvious…
try it out for your industry
<your industry>
impact obvious
Energy dependence enhanced humans Cause marketing
Scarcity of resources Augmented reality New business models
Digital divide Social media gamification
Social
Talent shortage crowdsourcing
Power shift to
Global warming
Rising middle class in entrepreneurship
Radical transparency/
emerging
urbanization GenY
emerging
Shared value 3D printing Virtualization
impact less obvious

24. Agenda
Meeting up & expectations
Part 1: zooming in on megatrends
• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate
strategy;
• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and
industries;
• Trends affecting other functions of the organization;
• Specific trends affecting HRM
Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends
• Megatrends exercise step-by-step
• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)
• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)

25. How some corporate functions will evolve
R&D
Open
Manufact
Innovation
ICT Open uring
source
Outsourcing
3D Printing
Virtual
company
Crowdsourcing
Social buying
Cust.
Marketing
Service
Affiliate
programs
‘Crowd-selling’
Admin Sales

26. The world becomes your R&D center
Open innovation User generated
Open sourcing
platforms innovation
Most of Fortune 500 use Open sourcing spreads even Fiat Mio made through input
open innovation now to pharmaceutical market of +10,000 customers

27. Manufacturing without factories
3D printing impact on manufacturing, spare parts, transport, logistics, …
New opportunities in design and software

28. Can marketing tasks be done more efficiently by an
anonymous crowd?
Open
Innovation
Open
source
Outsourcing
Outsourcing
3D Printing
3D Printing
Using the crowds’ creativity Using the crowds’ creativity for
Using the crowd for research producing things
and predictions… to design logo’s, websites,
new product features, … (advertisements, videos, …)

29. Can marketing tasks be done more efficiently with
alternative business models?
Open
Open
Innovation
Innovation
Open
Open
source
source
Outsourcing
Outsourcing
3D Printing
3D Printing

30. The world is your sales team

31. Simple administrative tasks can be done anywhere

32. Customer service via social media
Companies building peer-to-peer support communities find 95% of customers using it,
with 90% of them finding the solutions helpful

33. Technology becomes pervasive
Are Cloud computing, consumerization of IT and Do-it-Yourself
Taking away control and responsibility of IT?

34. The future is never extreme
Disadvantages: Advantages:
R&D
• complexity • cost-efficiency gains
• loss of control • lean company
• less loyalty from contributors • constant innovation
Open
Open • more loyalty from customers
Innovation Manufact
Innovation
ICT Open uring
Open
source
source
Cloud,
Outsourcing
Outsourcing
Consumerization,
3D Printing
3D Printing
DIY
Virtual
Virtual company
Crowdsourcing
Crowdsourcing
Self help
Social buying
Social buying
Social media
Cust.
Marketing
Service
Affiliate
Micro-tasking programs
‘Crowd-selling’
Admin Sales

35. But new competencies will be needed
R&D
Open
Innovation
Open
Manufac
HRM source turing
Cloud Outsourcing
Consumeri 3D Printing
zation
Virtual
company
Virtual
Social media Crowdsourcing
Self help Social buying
Cust. Market
Service ing
Affiliate
programs
Micro-tasking
‘Crowd-selling’
ICT Sales

36. Conclusions for the future of organizations
• Will open up to the external world
• Will organize around projects (~ movie production)
• Will require new competencies from existing functions
• Will require seamless communication

37. Agenda
Meeting up & expectations
Part 1: zooming in on megatrends
• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate
strategy;
• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and
industries;
• Trends affecting other functions in the organization;
• Specific trends affecting HRM
Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends
• Megatrends exercise step-by-step
• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)
• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)

38. What others consider to be long-term HR trends…
1) Rise in health-care costs 1) Businesses seek to regain positive 1) It’s the economy
2) Focus on domestic safety and security HR image 2) Millennials are on the march
3) Use of technology to communicate with 2) Green initiatives still on hold 3) Employee recruiting and networking online
employees 3) Digital-age reality sets-in 4) Made to order employment relationships
4) Growing complexity of legal compliance 4) Analysis via HR metrics to address 5) The big blur (work-life)
5) Use of technology to perform transactional performance 6) The rise of technology
HR functions 5) HR technology meets the small 7) Employee training and development
6) Focus on global security business transformed
7) Preparing for the next wave of 6) Increasing efficiency of business 8) Tension increases over government
retirement/labor shortage processes intervention in the employer-employee
8) Use and development of e-learning 7) HR shared services gains steam relationship
9) Exporting of US manufacturing jobs to 9) The rising cost of health-care
developing countries 10) Globalization, outsourcing and offshoring
10) Changing definition of family
1. Technology
2. Ageing society
3. Generation Y

39. (1) Technological trends affecting HRM function
E-learning Cloud
Training computing
Tools Enhanced
Crowdsourcing humans &
Intranet Collaboration BYOD
Internal (consumerization) HR tasks GRIN techs
tools Recruitment
communication Work style Tools & benefits
Employee health
NOW
Social Media Gamification Augmented
ERP Recruitment reality
Resource Mgt Recruitment
Corporate image Training & Training &
development development
Impact on HRM:
New relationship with technology –
develop project design skills

40. (1) Other consequences of technological trends
(discussion)
- are you using gamification, crowdsourcing, AR?
- how would this impact HR functions?
- what would be the main drivers for adoption?
- why would you NOT use these new techs?

41. (2) How will the ageing population impact the HRM
function?
2010 2050
employed/retired 2,24 1,51
employed/(retired +
unemployed) 1,54 1,40
people at empl age 6,9M 6.4M
employment 6,2M ???
Impact on HRM:
At same employment rate,
unemployment will be 3% in 2050
This will ineluctably lead to tensions
on the labor market

42. (2) Other consequences of ageing population
(discussion)
- how are you preparing for ageing population?
- how are you managing the different generations in your company?
- what are the specific threats of ageing population for your company?

43. (3) Generation Y workers will change the workfloor
Changing expectations about work
Generation internet is a fact of life
Traditionalist Middle Age Generation 30+ Generation
Internet
Training the hard way too much and I'll required to keep continuous and
leave me expected
Learning style classroom facilitated independent collaborative and
networked
Communication style top down guarded hub and spoke collaborative
Problem-solving hierarchical horizontal independent collaborative
Decision-making seeks approval team informed team includes team decides
Leadership style command and get out of the way coach partner
control Impact on HRM:
Feedback no news is good once per year weekly/daily on demand How to manage different
news
generations in one
Technology use uncomfortable unsure unable to work indispensable
without it company?
Job changing unwise sets me back necessary part of the plan
(s ource: La nca s ter a nd Stil l ma n 'When genera tions col l i de' 2003)

44. (3) Generation Y workers will change the workfloor
(discussion)
- New migration pattern
- how dependent are you from GenY‘action’ is
- young people move to where talent?
- 3 generations your working environment to attract GenY employees?
do you adapt on workfloor
- Do you offer ‘tailor made’ solutions environment of each generation?
- tailor made HR services/ work to the needs
- tension? New communication / learning
- longer working age
- adapt work environment and conditions

45. (my wildcard) Young potentials might prefer to become
entrepreneurs
# Jaren na beëindiging van de studies
0 5 10 15 20
24-30
werknemer
30-35
mix
Leeftijd
ondernemer
37-41
Impact on HRM:
Frederic De Meyer The importance of attracting and
retaining intrapreneurs !

46. (wildcard) Ideas to stimulate intrapreneurship (and,
hence, innovation) in your company
• Take ideas seriously (no, not through an ‘idea box’)
• Stimulate autonomous idea development
• Democratize decision-taking (bottom-up)
• Cell-division with same DNA
• Spin-in
• Cherish failure

47. (wildcard) stimulating intrapreneurship
(discussion)
- New migration pattern
- do you have programs to to where ‘action’ is
- young people move stimulate intrapreneurship?
- 3 generations on with new ideas?
how do you deal workfloor
- how do you make sure all corporateenvironment
- tailor made HR services/ work functions come up with new
ideas?tension? New communication / learning
-
- longer working age
- adapt work environment and conditions

48. Agenda
Meeting up & expectations
Part 1: zooming in on megatrends
• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate
strategy;
• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and
industries;
• The future of organizations and its impact on HRM;
• Specific trends affecting HRM
Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends
• Megatrends exercise step-by-step
• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)
• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)

49. here’s a simple process to assess the impact of
megatrends on your company:
#1 identify Mega trends
Megatrends to discuss
#2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally

50. but the devil is in the detail…

51. here’s a simple process to assess the impact of
megatrends on your company:
#1 identify Mega trends
Megatrends to discuss
#2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally

52. Identification of Megatrends
• Invite employees to submit
• Internal survey
• Brainstorming
• External consultants
• External individuals
– Linked in
– Crowdsourcing
• Research

53. Research option: Researching External experts’
assessment of megatrends
Ernst & Young NL CSIRO Compenhagen Institute Geert Noels -author of IBM McKinsey Richard Watson LinkedIn
megatrends for Future Studies 'Econoshocks'
Cultural / multiethnic More from less Ageing population Demography Globalization The great rebalancing Ageing Population technology
society will lead to (resources) (power shift)
conflict
Ageing population Personalisation of Globalization Shift to East demographics The productivity Powershift East sustainability
product and services imperative
Scarcety of natural Divergent demographics Technological New economy / tech Technological progress The Global Grid Global Connectiviy (> consumer power
resources between rich and poor + development (connectedness) fear)
impact on health
Individualization More people on the Prosperity End of fossile fuels Omni consumer (more Pricing the planet (green) GRIN Technology shift to East
move (mobility - job & informed and
geographical) empowered)
Climate iWorld (digital & natural Individualization New capitalism corporate social The Market State (govts Environment demography
convergence) responsibility vs globalization)
Islam grows, Christianity Commercialization Green economy political uncertainty meaning
fades
More wealthy countries Health & environment scarcity of resources
Technology impacts more Acceleration increasing complexity
parts of daily life
Global transport will ever Network organizing
increase (network-centricity)
Urbanization

54. Analyzing 338 responses to a LinkedIn question
about Megatrends
(Question asked by Andreas von
der Heydt, director at L’Oréal)
26.8% technology (collaboration, increased efficiency, cloud/virtualization, brainstorming (social media), smart
cities3D, nanotechs, mobile, augmented reality, new user interfaces, do it yourself, SaaS
13.7% sustainability, corporate responsibility, green tech
12.5% consumer power (24/7, consumerism, meaning, less is more, buy local, customization, online retail, transparancy
10.1% shift to East (innovation outside of US, decline of West, rising middle class, decline of Dollar
9.5% demography
4.8% meaning (return of ideology, increasing empathy
4.8% scarcity of resources (water
4.8% increasing complexity
3.0% online learning, for-profit universities
1.8% cost cutting
1.8% risk aversion
1.8% simplicity
1.8% Innovation, entrepreneurship
1.2% gov 2.0
0.6% insourcing
0.6% simplexity
0.6% Wealth/poverty

55. External experts’ assessment of megatrends
– group in themes
Ernst & Young NL CSIRO Compenhagen Institute Geert Noels -author of IBM McKinsey Richard Watson - author LinkedIn
megatrends for Future Studies 'Econoshocks' of 'Future Files'
Cultural / multiethnic More from less Ageing population Demography Globalization The great rebalancing Ageing Population technology
society will lead to (resources) (power shift)
conflict
Ageing population Personalisation of Globalization Shift to East demographics The productivity Powershift East sustainability
product and services imperative
Scarcety of natural Divergent demographics Technological New economy / tech Technological progress The Global Grid Global Connectiviy (> consumer power
resources between rich and poor + development (connectedness) fear)
impact on health
Individualization More people on the Prosperity End of fossile fuels Omni consumer (more Pricing the planet (green) GRIN Technology shift to East
move (mobility - job & informed and
geographical) empowered)
Climate iWorld (digital & natural Individualization New capitalism corporate social The Market State (govts Environment demography
convergence) responsibility vs globalization)
Islam grows, Christianity Commercialization Green economy political uncertainty meaning
fades
More wealthy countries Health & environment scarcity of resources
Technology impacts more Acceleration increasing complexity
parts of daily life
Global transport will ever Network organizing
increase (network-centricity)
Urbanization

56. External experts’ assessment of megatrends
- cleaned up major trends
Demographics: Geopolitics:
- Ageing Population - Globalization 3.0
- Global mobility - Global Grid
- Generation Y - Rising power of Emerging
- Urbanization - Rising middle class
- Gap rich-poor - The Market State
Consumer trends:
-Responsible buying
- Mass customization
Environment: Technology:
- Global warming -Pervasive Technology (IoT)
- Scarcety of resources - Augmented reality
- Energy dependency - Social Networks
- Green technologies - GRIN Technologies
- Radical Transparency - Tech customization
TIP: These are not the only Megatrends... Keep an eye on megatrends constantly !

57. …or select from the 46 used by i4fi…
trends we can be trends that are taking shape but a tiny bit
relatively certain of: future impact relatively uncertain: speculative:
DEMOGRAPHIC TECHNOLOGY
• aging population • ubiquitous computing • social Media
• increasing world population • disintermediation • augmented Reality
• genY/Milennials • crowdsourcing • 3D
• urbanization/geographic mobility • social Media • enhanced humans
• multi-ethnic society • SaaS, DIY
• widening gap rich-poor • cloud Computing
SUSTAINABILITY BUSINESS TRENDS
• global warming • shared value (CSR) • decentralization
• scarcity of resources • social Entrepreneurship • gamification
• energy dependency • Cause marketing • virtualization
• declining biodiversity • social Business • new business models
• green technologies • open inno/sourcing
CONSUMER GEOPOLITICS
• mass customization • radical transparency • power shift to East • trade blocs and unions
• social buying • globalization 3.0 • trade blocs and unions
• the Market State
• sustainable/ethical buying • rising middle class • the Market State
• Virtual currencies
SOCIETY
• dematerialization • talent shortage
(digitization) • boundary blurring
• digital divide

58. Make a selection, for instance with an internal survey
Topic Trend Q1: Is this a NEW Q2: Is this trend Q3: Is this a +3 Q4: Is this trend
trend ? disruptive? year trend? important for our
company?
Rate from 1-5
1 Demography Ageing population
2 Demography Growing mobility
3 Demography New migration
4 Demography Generation Y

59. guidelines for selecting trends to assess in your company
Mega trends
• don’t select (solely) trends with an obvious
impact on your industry or company… the
most successful ideas for innovation will
come from elsewhere;
• get your ideas and selection from a
combination of internal (survey) and external
(consultants) input;
• generate 50 ideas for megatrends, select 20
to discuss.

60. here’s a simple process to assess the impact of
megatrends on your company:
#1 identify
Megatrends to discuss
#2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally

61. Discuss the impact of megatrends in small groups

62. Think Tank discussions
22 megatrends, 5 Discussed in 5 Think Discussion points:
themes Tanks
Demographics: (+/- 25 participants)
- Ageing Population
- Global mobility
- Generation Y
- Urbanization
- Gap rich-poor
Subtrends
Geopolitics:
- Globalization 3.0
- Global Grid Consequences
- Rising power of Emerging
- Rising middle class
- The Market State Drivers
Inhibitors
Environment:
- Global warming Likeliness
- Scarcety of resources Timeline
- Energy dependency
- Green technologies
- Radical Transparency
Impact on
company
Technology:
-Pervasive Technology (IoT) Impact on
- Augmented reality ecosystem
- Social Networks
- GRIN Technologies Antitrends?
- Tech customization
Consumer trends:
-Responsible buying
- Mass customization

63. Tip 1: send previous briefing ‘fact sheets’ with thought-
provoking questions...

64. Tip 2: also discuss potential anti-trends, they might
constitute specific opportunities
CSIRO - MEGATRENDS Bridge8 - ANTITRENDS
More from less Less from less
Limited resources and increasing People adapt their needs to diminshing
population will drive need for more resources
efficiency in resource management
A personal touch Reducing choice
Drive for ever increasing personalisation People look for ways to simplify decision
of services and goods taking
Divergent demographics Growing global health
OECD countries ageing and unhealthy, Global health improvement due to science
developing nations boom breakthrough, improved fertility rate
More people on the move Fullfillment
Geographic and functional mobility, Young people will build diverse
urbanization experience leading to single goal,
technology will make location obsolete
iWorld Opting out
Digital and natural world get mixed. More people will chose to deconnect
Internet of things

65. Tip 3: use brainstorming techniques to open up the
minds at the start of each megatrend discussion

66. Tip 3-1: use business model canvas to open up the
minds at the start of each megatrend discussion
You can download the canvas for free on www.businessmodelgeneration.com/canvas

67. Tip 3-2: use your own canvas to open up the minds at
the start of each megatrend discussion
Connect with corporate strategy
Recruitment Training & Employee Retention
Development
Employee Loyalty & satisfaction
Employee Performance
Payroll/ Benefits Admin
HR Partners

68. guidelines for discussing trends in your company
• Invite people with different background,
functions and seniority
• follow a discussion template (though don’t
stick to it);
• take notes during the discussion;
• 5-6 persons per theme, 30-60 min. per trend;
• also look at anti-trends;
• keep it fun !

69. here’s a simple process to assess the impact of
megatrends on your company:
#1 identify
Megatrends to discuss
#2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally

70. Trends segmentation according to timeline, to know
which ones to act on...
High
2 1
4 5 3
Impact on company
24 8 7 6
9
10 12 11
13
15 16 14
17 19
18
20
22 21 23
Low
Already happening Recent/nacent Future
Frederic De Meyer
timeline

71. Trends segmentation based on which action to take
1. Aware
These are the trends that your company has no
influence over and that won’t impact on your core
activities. In essence, these are quite harmless,
although it is a good idea to keep an eye on them
manageble
since they might influence the environment of your
2 1 customers, channels or partners. However, they do
4 5 3 not require any immediate action.
Influence 24 8 7 Action
9
6 2. Monitor
10 The trends in this quadrant are potentially
12 11 dangerous. They have an impact on your core
13 activities but you have no influence over them. The
15 16 14 best you can do is follow them very closely, monitor
17 19 their breadth and impact in order to detect early
18 warning signals and have an action plan ready for
20
the event if these trends cross a certain threshold.
22 21 3. Influence
These are trends that you can influence but that
Aware Monitor only have an indirect impact on your business,
determined
through clients, employees or channels, for
instance. They often constitute a good opportunity
for your company to increase its relevancy over
these stakeholders, increase loyalty, gain new
customers or develop new services.
context core 4. Action
For the trends that impact your activities directly
Frederic De Meyer and over which you have a certain level of influence,
they require immediate action. They will very often
create new competitors if you don’t react (think of
peer-to-peer lending in the financial sector) or
create new business models and innovative
products and services. You need to assess these
trends urgently and develop a way to respond to
them quickly.

72. ‘Heat maps’ very effective way to visualize threats for
customers
Heat maps can help you to:
Weight
Trend 1 Trend 2 Trend 3 Trend 4 Trend [...] (%
T urno v e r) • uncover which customer segments, business lines,
partners, etc are under threat (or opportunity) from
Customer segment 1 -10 -6 -5 0 -3 60% specific trends
• if you add their relative weight (in %) it can quickly
Customer segment 2 2 8 0 2 0 20%
show you how threatened your business is by the
Customer segment 3 8 -2 3 -8 -3 10% situation at your customers
Customer segment 4 -7 0 0 0 2 5% • lead to more meaningful (and purposeful)
Customer segment [...] 7 6 2 1 10 5% conversations with customers
F re de ric D e M e ye r •Refine your strategy based on impact analysis of
megatrends…

73. guidelines for drawing conclusions from the trends
discussions
• segment the trends so as to show which ones
need action or a close monitoring
• map the way megatrends impact your
customer segments and stakeholders
• This is not rocket science… you can do this
based on (internal) survey

74. here’s a simple process to assess the impact of
megatrends on your company:
#1 identify
Megatrends to discuss
#2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally

75. Maximizing impact of the Megatrend exercise
Available to: Contains: Aim: Format:
Megatrends document: every employee 'Fact sheets' prepared for discussions, Alignment of vision, buy-in for Doc + discuss
with some high level outcome of decisions
discussions
Executive Briefing: top management Short document with key Influence decisions, ideas for business Doc + discuss
opportunities and threats (not in other model innovation
docs)
Partner document: partners and channels Fact sheets of those trends that are Partner loyalty, joint business planning Doc + discuss
impacting channels
Packs per customer segment: vertical sales teams Fact sheets of those trends that are Customer intimacy, marketing & sales Doc + discuss
impacting specific customers arguments
Packs per product segment: productmanagers, Fact sheets of those trends that are Better market positioning, marketing, Doc + discuss
business units, R&D impacting specific product or services sales messages
High level summary: External world Your company's vision on Megatrends Feedback from people outside of Presentations
industry, new ideas and insights
Assessing the impact
of Megatrends on
your company
frederic de meyer

76. guidelines for communicating the conclusions of the
megatrends exercise
• Maximize the value of the insights for different
audiences;
• Select only the material and trends relevant to
the specific audiences (don’t communicate
everything to everyone);
• Use these documents to explain specific
strategic decisions

77. long-term shifts do have a short
term effect… prepare your
business now!

78. Useful documents and templates
CD-ROM contains:
 Full presentation deck in PPT;
 40 megatrends fact sheets;
 Brainstorming cue-cards;
 Megatrend selection survey template;
 Megatrend discussion template;
 +20 reports on specific megatrends (publicly
available)

79. The future cannot be predicted
…but it can be made !
(ancient African saying)
www.i4fi.com
www.fredericdemeyer.com
additional questions: frederic@i4fi.com