Rohit Talwar's presentation on the future of HR to the 15th Annual AESC Conference on London.

1. HR 2020
People Leadership in Turbulent Times and the Impact on
Senior Executive Recruitment and Representation
15th Annual AESC Conference - London
November 17th 2011
Rohit Talwar CEO - Fast Future Research
www.fastfuture.com rohit@fastfuture.com Twitter @fastfuture

2. Contents
Presentation p. 3
About Fast Future p. 62
Image Sources p. 70

3. Driving Future Growth
Business HR 2020 Core
Trends Skills

4. Organisations Need to Work on
3 Horizons in Parallel
1-12 Months 1-3 Years 3-10 Years
Operational Drive for Creating
Excellence Growth the Future

5. Growth is not Guaranteed…

6. …Thinking is Back in Fashion

7. Transformational Change?
It’s Only Just Begun

8. The World in 2015

9. Demographic Destinies
2 billion more people in 40 years –
Demographics is Driving Economics
448 739 691 5231
344
1998 4157
729 1030
585
2010 2050 Source : United Nations

10. Life Redefined –
Lifespans are Increasing
Under 50’s have 90%
chance of living to 100.
Aubrey de Grey suggests
we could live to 500 or 1000
What are the health,
housing, consumption and
resource implications?
What kind of opportunities
will be created?

11. BCG’S 2011 Global Challengers
and Emeriti: Origin Countries
35 33
30
25
20
20
15 14
10 8
6
5
5 4
3 3
2 2
1 1 1 1 1
0
Source: Boston Consulting Group, January 2011

12. Service is the ‘Killer App’

14. Tackling Complexity
• Process
• Organisation
• Information /
Systems
• Regulatory
• Human

15. Think Like the Customer
e.g. Open Innovation

16. New Business Thinking
e.g. Ultra-Quick Construction

17. New Business Models - Auctions
£3088 £8791.50 £81

18. Access vs. Ownership

19. TMT – Convergence and Immersion
Telephony Connectivity
• Voice • Cellular
• Messaging • Up to 14 bands
• SIM card • WLAN/BT
• Phonebook • GPS
• Ring Tones • NFC
• Security • FM
Data/ Multimedia
Enterprise • Camera 8-16M
• Camcorder
• 100Mbps
• 24M Color Display
• Email
• Memory (160GB)
• IMS
• Multiformat A/V
• Browsing
• HD Video/TV out
• VPN
• Games
• PIM
• Ecommerce
Software (50-100M Tps)
• Protocols • DRM
• Payments
• Middleware
• Applications
• User Interface
• Minimize fragmentation

20. Next Generation Interfaces

21. Haptics / Holograms / Interactive Surfaces

22. Focus on Growth Industries

23. Rising Infrastructure Spending
• CIBC projects up to $35
trillion in public works
by 2030 (1)
• Annual spend:
– North America
$180Bn
– Europe $205Bn
– Asia $400Bn
– Africa $10Bn
Green Buildings - $600Bn by 2015

24. Airport Expansion by 2020
China from ~150 to 244
India from ~100 to 150

25. Opening Up Education

26. Green Transport Revolution

27. Extending the Experience

28. The Slide@T3
Changi Airport - Singapore

29. Virtual Grocery Shopping –
Tesco South Korea

30. 3D Printing
$1Tn+

31. The Evolving HR Agenda

32. Barriers to HR Effectiveness over
the next decade
46% 46% 43% 39%
Lack of Failure to Emphasis on Corporate
business and attract, cost cutting culture not
strategic develop, retain over people valuing
understanding and reward development talent
in the HR suitable talent development
function at all levels

33. Maximising HR's Contribution -
Critical Roles
70%
61%
60%
50%
44%
40% 37% 35% 34%
31%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Becoming a Acquiring, Managing change Individualisation and Addressing the Becoming a learning
strategic partner, developing and and cultural personalisation of demographic organization
coach and mentor retaining talent transformation HR services to meet challenges of a
and developing HR the differing needs global and multi-
as a source of of leaders, generational
competitive managers and workforce
advantage employees

37. Strategic Priorities for HR
Aligning HR / talent and
business strategies 73%
Nurturing engagement /
commitment 58%
Developing clear HR
strategy 51%
Developing global model
for people & skills 49%

38. Leadership and Management
Development
Managing, motivating /
integrating a multi
generational workforce 58%
Build management /
leadership capability to
manage an increasingly
global /diverse workforce 57%
Help management and
leadership to work in a
flat structure 49%

39. Supporting Employees
Maximising individual talent, competence,
commitment, and contribution 56%
43% Building and sustaining employee
trust and engagement
Helping employees find a sense of
purpose and meaning in their work 39%

42. Performance Management -
Maximising Employee Contribution
Supporting lifelong learning -
continuous re-skilling 61%
Implementing real-time learning /
development solutions 49%
Improving training / delivery
effectiveness 40%

43. Operational Delivery Priorities
50% 48%
Consistent / Auditable Supporting self-organising and
Process & Policy Execution self-directed teams
41% 41%
Cost control Managing business risks

45. Organisation Design and Culture
Facilitating alignment between
strategy and organizational
design, culture, values and
ethics 65%
Developing organizational
capacity to respond quickly /
adapt to change 60%
Redesigning organizational
structures to ensure flexibility /
responsiveness 48%
Ensuring HR policies can support
boundaryless org models 42%

47. HR Technology Priorities
52% 47%
Enabling the workforce to stay Enabling ‘self-service’ by
‘connected’ in remote locations managers and employees
40% 38%
Providing up to date employee- Using social media based communications
centred information internally to drive engagement / retention

50. Outsourcing HR – Prime Candidates
Education, training &
development 55%
Compensation & benefits
administration 51%
Employee administration 46%

51. Management of the HR Function
58% 50% 50%
Developing HR as an Anticipating key Building a deep
effective partner, trends and understanding of
coach and mentor to developments that business in general
the business could impact HR and and of their own
talent related issues organisation in
in the organisation particular

52. Where are the Opportunities?
• Networks
• Development
• Representation
• Business Models

53. How can Leaders Respond?

54. Lead or Follow?

55. Make Time and Space for Change

56. Be Sticky and Magnetic

57. Create Tolerance of Uncertainty
Encourage Experimentation

58. Broad Scans and Deep Dives

59. Embrace Networks and
Associations

60. Encourage Curiosity

61. Conclusions – Future Leaders
• Forward Looking
• Experimental
• Tolerant of Uncertainty

62. About Fast Future

63. Fast Future –
Core Services
• Live Events - Speeches, briefings and workshops for executive
management and boards of governments, investment funds,
development agencies , companies, airlines, airports, hotels, venues,
CVB’s and associations
• Future Insights - Customised research on emerging trends, future
scenarios, technologies and new markets
• Immersion - ‘Deep dives’ on future trends, market developments,
emerging issues and technology advances
• Strategy - Development of strategies and business plans
• Innovation - Creation of business models and innovation plans
• Engagement - Consultancy and workshop facilitation

64. Fast Future
• Research, consulting, speaking, leadership
• 5-20 year horizon - focus on ideas, developments, people,
trends and forces shaping the future
• Clients
– ING, ABN Amro, Laing O’Rourke
– Marks and Spencer
– Airports - Aeroports de Paris / Schiphol Group
– Vancouver Airport Services
– Industry Associations – ICCA, ASAE, PCMA, MPI
– Corporates - GE, Nokia, Pepsi, IBM, Intel, Orange,
O2, Siemens, Samsung, GSK, SAPE&Y, KPMG,
Amadeus, Sabre, Travelport, Travelex, ING,
Santander, Barclays, Citibank, DeutscheBank
– Governments - Dubai, Finland, Nigeria, Singapore,
UK, US
– Convention Bureaus – Seoul, Sydney, London, San
Francisco, Toronto, Abu Dhabi, Durban, Athens,
Slovenia, Copenhagen
– Convention Centres – Melbourne,
Adelaide, Qatar, QEIICC
– Hotels - Accor Group, Preferred,
– Intercontinental
– PCO’s - Congrex, Kenes

65. Rohit Talwar
• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.
• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic
innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on
5 continents
• Author of Designing Your Future
• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10
Global Future Thinkers
• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic
consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications,
technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism,
environment, food and government sectors
• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De
Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM,
ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis,
OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell,
Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous international associations
and governments agencies in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai,
Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.
• To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email
rohit@fastfuture.com

66. Designing Your Future
Key Trends, Challenges and Choices
• 50 key trends
• 100 emerging trends
• 10 major patterns of change
• Key challenges and choices for leaders
• Strategic decision making framework
• Scenarios for 2012
• Key futures tools and techniques
• Published August 2008
• Price £49.95 / €54.95/ $69.95
• Email invoice request to rohit@fastfuture.com

67. Our Services
Bespoke research; Identification &
Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers &
Shocks
Public Speaking, In-
Company Briefings, Accelerated Scenario
Seminars and Planning, Timelining &
Workshops Future Mapping
Personal Futuring for
Leaders and Leadership Expert Consultations &
Teams Futures Think Tanks
Identification of
Design & Facilitation of Opportunities for
Innovation, Incubation Innovation and Strategic
& Venturing
Strategy Creation & Investment
Programmes
Development of
Implementation
Roadmaps

68. Example Projects
• Public and private client research e.g. :
– Development of Market Scenarios, emerging trends and strategies for key clients
– Government and OECD Scenario Projects – e.g. Migration 2030, Future of Narcotics, Chemical
Sector, Family 2030
– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration
– Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society of
Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership
– Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020
– The Shape of Jobs to Come – Emerging Science and Technology Sectors and Careers
– Winning in India and China
– The Future of Human Resources
– Exploiting the Future Potential of Social Media in UK Small to Medium Enterprises
– Convention 2020 – the Future of Business Events
– Future Convention Cities Initiative – Maximising Long-term Economic Impact of Events
– One Step Beyond – Future trends and challenges for the events industry
– Hotels 2020: Beyond Segmentation – Future Hotel Strategies
– The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision to 2020
– Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia
– Aviation and Airports e.g. Aviation 2030

69. Example Clients

70. Image Sources p.1
Page
1. http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01016/BUSH-BINOCULARS_1016553i.jpg
3. http://www.wadefinancial.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/5-Big-Questions.jpg
4. Left to Right
http://www.guy-sports.com/fun_pictures/truck_art_pepsis_lg.jpg
http://www.automotive-insight.net/aston-martin-cars/pics/aston%20martin.jpg
http://www.kgwings.com/hawkeye/hawkeye05.jpg
5. http://www.piperreport.com/archives/Images/Medicare%20PFFS%20Plans.jpg
6. http://www.einstein.yu.edu/iphs/images/think_tank.jpg
7. http://creativeclass.typepad.com/thecreativityexchange/images/2007/12/01/global.jpg
8. Clockwise
http://www.etftrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/1_fullsize.jpg
http://blog.engglib2.upd.edu.ph/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/newsweek4.jpg
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4b3799e6-5e04-11df-8153-00144feab49a.html#axzz1LCUOTVNv
http://batonrouge.myhomecareblog.com/files/2011/07/active_seniors4.jpg
http://www.imperial-consultants.co.uk/files/biopharmaceuticals.jpg
http://www.nanotechnologyinvesting.us/images/nanotechnology-480.jpg
http://cdn.lightgalleries.net/4bd5ec0d18599/images/Cocoon_05-2.jpg
http://takemetoyourleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/010101.jpg
http://www.lostateminor.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/vertical_farming_1.jpg
12. http://www.tensator.com/blog/post/2011/01/31/London-Luton-Airport-Introduces-Two-New-Staff-Members-Holly-and-
Graham.aspx
13. http://freshpeel.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/Future_of_Work.jpg
14. http://encefalus.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/complexity.gif
16. http://images.gizmag.com/gallery_lrg/arkhotelchangsha.png

71. Image Sources p.2
18. http://www.greensharecar.com.au/
19. http://www.reghardware.com/2010/08/11/video_rim_blackberry_torch_9800/
20. Clockwise
http://www.dexigner.com/news/22673
http://www.livetradingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/hp_3d_laptop.jpg
http://blog.core-ed.net/derekarchives/NokiaFanPhone.jpg
21. Left to Right
http://www.tuvie.com/wp-content/uploads/your-life-in-2020-frog-design1.jpg
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LYLNQSJkOcM/TMOyFH7Hv3I/AAAAAAAAACE/ISxznCcG6gw/s1600/SkinputImg1.jpg
http://www.flickr.com/photos/lukedebruijn/3991431571/
22. Left to Right
http://teamaltman.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/industry-and-data.jpg
http://picturesofcar.blogspot.com/2009/07/future-concept-car-pictures.html
http://www.technologylodging.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/food-biotechnology.jpg
23. http://www.ljlindhurst.com/images/highway.jpg
24. http://www.surfersvillage.com/gal/pictures/1215airplanes.jpg
25. http://www.patelsmith.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/village-classroom-1.jpg
26. Left to Right
http://www.topcarpictures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/2009-brabus-tesla-roadster.jpg
http://solar.calfinder.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/electric-car-station.jpg
27. Left to Right
http://www.instablogsimages.com/images/2007/10/09/design-concept-of-vertical-farming_5810.jpg
http://www.globalairportcities.com/images/stories/news2011/September/6dcinema.jpg
28. http://www.fastcodesign.com/1662241/wheeeeeee-slides-made-for-adults-in-dire-need-of-fun-video
29. http://trendshq.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/South-Korea-Virtual-Supermarket-on-Subway.jpg

72. Image Sources p.3
30. Left to Right
http://www.psfk.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/pic-rapid-prototyping-and-jewelry.png
http://www.fastcompany.com/1781551/prototype-of-worlds-first-3-d-printed-car-unveiled
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2010/10/on-demand-3d-printing-cut-waste-increase-efficiency.php
31. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_9SlYS77Pdxg/SeqgR0hQBMI/AAAAAAAACDk/PLTRR4KWo-o/s400/entrepreneur2.gif
32. Left to Right
http://www.ithnk.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/iStock_000008709052XSmall.jpg
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_RRCKUz_JLp8/TENMux5g0iI/AAAAAAAADVg/IWmR7A1OiO4/s1600/talent-management.gif
http://www.fx-mm.com/wp-content/uploads/Cutting-pound-warning-triangle-200x200.gif
http://online.vetab.nsw.gov.au/enews_0409/wcb-
content/uploads/vetabnewsletter/image/iStock_woman_climbing_ladder_000005562435XSmall.jpg
37. http://blog.teamtrainingunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Priority-Checklist1.jpg
38. http://www.contactldi.com/assets/images/side-bar.jpg
39. Top to Bottom
http://www.jatcohealth.com/uploads/filebrowser/hr%20support%20iStock_000006102039XSmall.jpg
http://onphilanthropy.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/employee-engagement2.jpg
http://www.missionislam.com/discover/digrf/purpose.jpg
42. Top to Bottom
http://www.rapidchange.com/Portals/0/images/Performance-Management.jpg
http://www.dailyblogtips.com/wp-content/uploads/learning.jpg
43. Clockwise
http://www.islamicity.com/global/images/photo/IC-Articles/RiskManagement__300x285.JPG
http://k43.pbase.com/v3/44/546244/1/50649402.jbDSC12845.jpg
http://www.dailyblogtips.com/wp-content/uploads/learning.jpg
http://www.enterpriseschedule.eu/images/index/small_images/WF-Diagram-Smal l.jpg

73. Image Sources p.4
45. Top to Bottom
http://pajamasmedia.com/upload/2007/10/smallworld.jpg
http://360vendormanagement.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/outsourcing-governance-organization-design.jpg
47. Clockwise
http://blog.thecompanywarehouse.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Flexible-Remote-Working.jpg
http://onefaceinamillion.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/checkout22_wideweb__470x3290.jpg
http://econversemedia.com/ecwp/wp-content/themes/ecwp/images/socmedia1.jpg
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50. http://www.growthbusiness.co.uk/article_images/articledir_2130/1065407/2_200by200.jpg
51. Left to Right
http://www.occrecruitment.co.uk/whitedragon/documents/image/Coaching%20&%20Mentoring.jpg
http://www.integration1.com.au/images/1192-251x800-network_security_scan_radar.jpg
http://www.toastmasters.org/OtherImages/GlobalPerspective.aspx
52. http://www.visualphotos.com/photo/2x4524045/businesswoman_on_ladder_looking_through_binoculars_bld005521.jpg
54. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-
EJhAZaiyA8E/TfRRHfKzDMI/AAAAAAAAAGo/JmTQLz1z0xc/s320/6a00d8341c65c453ef010536d4981b970c-800wi.jpg
55. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/bigphotos/images/090305-daylight-saving-time-facts-history_big.jpg
56. http://www.ripleys.com/assets/img/upload/bions/magnet_man.jpg
57. Left to Right
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_MuWNJtJ8XS4/RwrvXTT4e4I/AAAAAAAABJc/pMnDJx06ZQA/s400/DuaneMichels.Uncertainty88.j
pg
http://embunpagi2009.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/seedling1.jpg
58. Left to Right
http://www.codeproject.com/KB/grid/DrawingRadarDisplayWithCS/Radar1.jpg
http://www.realmscuba.com/Logos/Dive%20Course/group%20underwater.jpg

74. Image Sources p.5
59. Outside In
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http://i36.tinypic.com/vrxzll.jpg
60. http://www.insidefurniture.com/.a/6a00d834519a9e69e2010536a3c860970b-800wi
61. http://www.oytun.co.uk/wp-content/themes/mimbo2/images//innovation.jpg