Presentation to ITB Berlin 2009

1. The Future of Travel and Tourism
ITB Convention – Berlin - March 11th 2009
Rohit Talwar - CEO - Fast Future
Image source:
Hydropolis, Dubai
rohit@fastfuture.com Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766 Mob +44 (0)7973 405145

3. For details on Fast Future’s
seminar on Winning in a Downturn
April 30th 2009 - 6pm
QE II Centre London
please email
seminars@fastfuture.com

4. What do they Have in Common?
They all started in an economic downturn

5. How will the Downturn Develop?
http://www.borev.net/imf.jpg

6. Prepare for Alternative Scenarios
8-10% Suspicious Love is in
Minds the Air
GDP
Growth
Dancing in
India 6-7%
the Dark
and
China
Road to
Nowhere
1-2%
Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3%
GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan

7. Airlines in Crisis
Sources: www.flysilverjet.com / www.maxjet.com / http://www.classicdriver.com/upload/images/_de/3443/img06pop.jpg

8. Demographic Destinies
3 billion more people in 40 years –
Demographics is Driving Economics
445 731 665 5266
339
1998 4034
769 965
572
2008 2050 Source: UN
Source : United Nations

9. Economic Power Shifts
The Top 20 in 2025?
Source: www.gs.com

10. Middle East Travel and Tourism
US$ 3.76 Trillion investment by 2020
Over 900 new hotels offering 750,000+ rooms by 2020
Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012
900+ new aircraft by 2027
170 million Tourists by 2020
rohit@fastfuture.com

11. Revenue Impact Against 2008
16% Growth
28% Flat
2009
Decline
19%
43%
56%
2010
12%
38%
9%
2015
79%
203 Respondents
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

12. Profit Impact Against 2008
20% 25% Growth
Flat
2009
Decline
25%
38%
55%
2010
18%
37%
9%
2015
73%
204 Respondents
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

13. Cost Cutting -
Emphasis on Innovation -
Increasing Use of Partnerships -
Changing Organisational Structure -
Renegotiating Contracts with Suppliers -
Headcount Reduction -
Changing Business Model -
Changing our Basic Strategy -
Increased Marketing -
More New Product Development -
Focus on Premium Products -
Staff Motivation Activities -
Looking for Acquisitions -
Reduction of Product Range -
Price Increases -
Selling Parts of the Business -
No Change -
Other -
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

14. Customer Relationships -
Cost Control -
Innovation -
Marketing and Brand Promotion -
Clear Internal Communications -
Supplier Relationships -
Other -
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

15. Vacations 2015
47% - More
48% - Shorter
70% - More Low Cost
20% - More Luxury
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of
Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009 http://www.maskworld.com/pix/costumes/large/91099-urlauber-fat-suit-tourist-fat-suit.jpg

16. 81% 76%
http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/usa/images/vacation-travel.jpg http://stephen.banksie.co.uk/research/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/louvre33.jpg
62% 80%
Http://www.umanitoba.ca/campus/physical_plant/media/sustainability.jpg http://www.travelblog.org/Photos/1848797.html
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

17. Leveraging the Networks
74% - Will use Networks to Research and Find Deals
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

18. 64%
31%
3% 2%
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

19. Travel Expectations in 2015
Up Down
• No. of domestic nights 31% 27%
• No. of international nights 42% 23%
• Hotel Budgets 40% 32%
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

20. Air Travel 2015
http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/10/15/SingaporeA380_wideweb__470x312,0.jpg

21. Air Travel in 2015
• 65% expect costs to rise on domestic and
international flights
Up Down
• Personal domestic flights 29% 28%
• Personal international flights 39% 24%
• Travel Budgets 44% 32%
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

22. New Business Models
85% - In-Flight / In-Room
66% - Experience Lounges
53% - Testing Vacations
67% - Monetize Clients
http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/blogcategory/15/224/7/14/
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

23. Under 100 US Airports by 2015?
38% http://www.visitingdc.com/images/jfk-airport-address.jpg
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

24. Airports only in Major Euro Cities
40% http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/aircraft-pictures/T5large.jpg
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

25. Low Cost Carriers
62% - Half will Collapse
49% - Massive Growth
http://airlinewallpapers.com/gallery/albums/GermanWings/GermanwingsA319.png
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

26. New Business Models /
New Airlines
62% http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/Lufthansa-1.jpg
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

27. Preference for Rail over Air
66% - Europe
18% - USA
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2005/1907769952_82c4b8d1fb_o.jpg
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

28. Innovations will Continue to Emerge
– e.g. Jumbo Hostel, Sweden
http://www.jumbohostel.com/DynPage.aspx?id=64673&mn1=5293&mn2=5302

29. Mobile Hotels - Movil
http://www.ohgizmo.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/hotel_movil.jpg

30. Rig Hotels
http://www.gizmag.com/from-oilrig-to-luxury-eco-resort-11156/11156/picture/70690/

31. Hello Hypersonic?
48%
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of
Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009 www.mondolithic.com

32. $20,000 Commercial Spaceflight?
29%
Image source: Virgin Galactic
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

33. Space Hotels?
18% http://www.bornrich.org/images/space-hotel_18.jpg
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

34. Airship Hotels
30% Source: Aeroscraft
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

35. Augmented Reality
69%
http://www.theapplecollection.com/design/pcproto/images/segavr.jpg
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

36. 23%
www.mondolithic.com
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

37. Environment
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg

38. Don’t Make What you Don’t Need
From requirement analysis through contract negotiation to implementation and
demobilization in months Source: Siemens Industrial Solutions & Services - Airport Logistics

39. Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

40. Environmental Control
• Hotels and venues that do not have a zero environmental 23%
footprint (waste, energy use, emissions) will be out of business
• Offsetting of emissions will be mandatory for all airlines 77%
• Passengers will face personal carbon limits that dramatically
restrict the number of flights they can take 25%
• Business people will need to apply for permits to fly, proving
the business benefit outweighs environmental impact 18%
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

41. What does the timeline of
developments look like for your
key markets?

42. Travel 2015 - Conclusions
• Demand will hold up
• Airline profitability is
critical
• New business models
will evolve
• Sustainability still on
the agenda
http://dubaiworld.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/dubailand-wheel.jpg

43. If you would like to take part in our
study on the future of meetings
and travel, sign up to our
newsletter or receive the research
studies mentioned please email
research@fastfuture.com