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Russian market opportunities 2011
1. IT
TV
TELECOM
17 mln km²
DIGITAL
142.9 mln people
HI-TECH MEDIA
CAPITALIZING ON NEW GROWING DIGITAL MARKETS:
PARTNERSHIP AND MARKET OPORTUNITIES IN RUSSIA
Moscow – July, 2011
2. Content
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4
CELLULAR COMMUNICATIONS 9
DIGITAL DEVICES 10
RUSSIAN INTERNET ACCESS 12
ONLINE GAMES 14
SOCIAL NETWORKS 15
INTERNET MEDIA MARKET 17
RUSSIAN PTV & TV MARKET
18
FILM DISTRIBUTION MARKET 21
DVD MARKET
22
PARTNERSHIP & MARKET OPPORTUNITIES IN RUSSIA 24
ANNEX
28
DESIGNED BY J’SON & PARTNERS 2
3. Content
Top Ten Russian cities by Population 4
Socio-economic indicators of Russia 5
1. General information:
Russian Telecom Operators Revenue, bn USD 6
Digital Devices in Russian Households 7
Cellular Business 9
Digital Devices Sales, 2010 10
Russian Internet Access vs. World 12
Russian Online Games Market 14
Russian Social Networks 15
Russian Social Networks, Income (%), 2010 16
2. Market overview:
Advertising volume in Russia vs. World 17
Russian TV & video Markets Development Forecast 18
Russian PTV market potential and forecast 19
Russian TV market 20
Movie Theatre Market in Russia 21
DVD market in Russia 22
Content distribution opportunities in Russia 24
3. Partnership & Market Potential strategy 25
Opportunities In Russia Partnership structure 26
Key Russian market players: Telecom Operators 28
Key Russian market players: Pay TV market, 2010 29
Key Russian TV Channels and niches 30
Key Russian market players: TV holdings and owners 31
4. Annex:
Key Russian market players: Web TV 32
Key Russian market players: Russian TV channels 33
Key Russian market players: Internet Portals 34
Key Russian market players: Russian TOP 4 social networks 35
Our Clients 37
5. About us: Our Clients About Us 38
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5. 1. General information: Top Ten Russian cities by Population
1. Moscow - 11,514,300 2. St.Petersburg - 4,848,700 3. Novosibirsk - 1,473,700 4. Yekaterinburg - 1,350,100
5. Nizhny Novgorod - 1,250,600 6. Samara - 1,164,900
St.Petersburg
Moscow 17 mln km²
Nizhny Novgorod
Rostov-On-Don
Kazan 142.9 mln people
Samara Yekaterinburg
Chelyabinsk
Omsk
Novosibirsk
7. Omsk - 1,154,000 8. Kazan - 1,143,600 9. Chelyabinsk- 1,130,300 10. Rostov-On-Don - 1,089,900
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6. 1. General information: Socio-economic indicators of Russia
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
POPULATION OF RUSSIA (WITHOUT MIGRATION), MLN PEOPLE 144.2 143.5 142.8 142.2 142 141.9 142.9* 141.5 141.1
NOMINAL GDP, BN USD 591.1 763.6 990.5 1298.7 1660.4 1218.6 1478.3 1850 2050
REAL GDP GROWTH, % 7.2 6.4 8.2 8.5 5.2 -7.8 (-7) 4 (5) 4.8 4
GDP PER CAPITA, THOUSAND USD 4.10 5.32 6.94 9.13 11.69 8.59 10.34 13.07 14.53
THE GROWTH OF REAL OUTPUT, % 7.3 4 7.1 6.8 0.6 -9.3 8.2 5 4.5
PROFICIT Δ / Δ BUDGET DEFICIT, % 4.2 7.7 7.3 5.4 4.1 -5.9 -4 -0.8 -2.1
STABILIZATION FUND, BN USD 18.8 43.7 89.1 156.8 225.1 152.1 113.8 98.8 68.8
UNEMPLOYMENT,% 8.2 7.6 7.2 6.5 6.2 8.4 7.5 6.8 6.8
EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AT END OF PERIOD, BN USD 105.6 82.3 49 46.4 32.7 44.3 46.6 46.8 50
EXTERNAL PRIVATE DEBT AT END OF PERIOD, BN USD 108.9 176.1 260.7 419 452 425.4 442.1 470 490
TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT / GDP, % 33.7 30.6 29.2 32.2 30.5 39.2 32.4 27.2 25.8
AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATE USD / RUB 28.8 28.3 27.2 25.6 24.9 31.8 30.4 28 27.8
Sources: Federal State Statistics, Central Bank, Troika Dialog
* According to the National Population Census '2010
Market Size: > 102 Millions
Age Group (years)
AGE GROUP The Russian economy is steadily growing. Despite the
POPULATION % OF POPULATION crisis of 2009, strong macroeconomic indicators (such as
(YEARS) 14% 16%
GDP and industrial production growth, an impressive
0-14 22 661 721 15.68
amount of the stabilization fund, low debt, including
15-34 42 346 200 29.30 29% national one, and relatively low unemployment rate) show
41%
35-64 59 718 259 41.32 stability and great development potential of the economy
of the country.
65+ 19 800 100 13.70
TOTAL 144 526 280 100.00 0-14 15-34 35-64 65+
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7. 1. General information: Russian Telecom Operators Revenue, bn USD
24,5
22,8
20
2 008 2 009 2 010
7,3
4,8 5,5 4,9
4,5 4,5
2,3 3,0
2,2
0,9 1 1,2
Cellular Handsets Fixed telephony Internet PTV
Cellular communication in Russia remains the international "showcase" of the telecommunications market.
Revenues from wireless communication in Russia (along with the strong sales growth of cellular phones and
digital devices) is 5 times higher than the revenues from the fixed one.
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8. 1. General information: Digital Media Market in Russia
Video Services Market volume in Russia, 2010-2016*, mln USD
8331
Promising segments
7054
3592 3527
30063169
2310
18481940 1658 1646
1916
1249 1300 1167
743 859 775 618
567 544 589
250 305 320 53 18
280 41
1
FTA Advertising PTV Subscribtion PTV Channels PTV Advertising Broadband Internet Advertising Internet Video Paid Internet Video Theaters Licensed DVD Sales
Subscribtion Subscribtion Advertising Services
2010 2016 (1) 2016 (2)
* - BTV (free-air TV) - 20 current air channels, RPTV (advanced pay-TV) - non-air local and pay TV channels, including social TV networks;
2016 (1) - conservative scenario, 2016 (2) - optimistic scenario
Russia follows general international trends increasing rapidly high-speed Internet Technologies; Smartphones,
laptops, tablets and other digital devices sales; consumption of new video, audio, gaming and social services.
Russia at nowadays be considered as a newly-formed digital platform with a high market potential for all types
of digital content production and distribution locally and in partnership with strong world`s market leaders.
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9. 1. General information: Digital Devices in Russian Households
10 households or 27 people in Russia have:
42.5 SIM cards
18.5 cell phones, purchased over
the last three years
2.3 smartphones
6.6 apartment phones
3.4 computers with broadband Internet access
0.8 iPads
3.1 TV sets, connected to pay TV
7.2 active users of social networking
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11. 2. Market overview: Cellular Business
Cellular penetration & Subscriptions by Counties, 2009 Mobile content market growth by Countries, 2010
1400
1330 147% 160%
Russia 26%
1170 127%
1200
140%
India 23%
112% 120% Germany 19%
1000
92% 93% 95% Canada 16%
747
100%
800
USA 14%
World 13%
80%
600 525
60% France 12%
57% Japan
400
286 307 11%
45%
40%
210 China 9%
200
116 127 105 82 142
60 62 51 47
20%
South Korea 9%
0 0%
Brazil 9%
India China Japan USA France Spain Germany Russia Sources: J’son & Partners Consulting
Subscribers, mln City population, mln people Cellular penetration, % Russia is the №1 in growth rates among major countries in terms of mobile
content market in 2010.
Cellular operators revenue by countries, 2009 (bn USD) Mobile content market volume by countries, 2010
4500
3852 4048 4500
185,6 4000
292
4000
3168
878
3500 3500
3000 3000
125,3 944
2500 2500
1720 1722
2965
2000
1432 2000
73,6 1217 869
1500
928 1010 295 1500
188
90 286,3 668 347
31,2
1000 1000
26,5 26,6 252 265
21 20 403 1031 701,5 116
1167 560
500
372 906 500
123 88 85,9 642
0
231 0
180 253 143,2
India China Japan USA France Spain Germany Russia France Germany India Russia South Korea Japan USA China
Video and TV
Graphic content
Audio, RBT, and audiobooks
Games
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12. 2. Market overview: Digital Devices Sales, 2010
Value of mobile handsets market, bn USD Volume of mobile handsets market, mln units
8,0 8,0
6,8
7,0 6,3 7,0 45,0 40 41 45,0
5,8 38,5
6,0 6,0 40,0 35,5 40,0
4,9 2,5
4,5 35,0 28,9 35,0
5,0 2,7 5,0
30,0 30,0
2,8 26,2
4,0 4,0 25,0 27,6 25,0
28,9
3,0 3,4 3,0 20,0 31,6 20,0
3,6 27,1
4,3 15,0 15,0
2,0 3,6 2,0
2,9 10,0 10,0
1,0 1,0 12,4 14,8
1,5 5,0 9,6 5,0
0,8 1,9 3,9
0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Smartphones Other handsets All handsets Smartphones Other handsets All handsets
Smartphones sales in Russia 3G-USB Modems Sales in Russia
16
4,3 4,5
14
3,6 4,0
14 0,33 0,36 0,36 0,35 0,34 0,4
12 0,35
12
2,9 3,5
3,0 10 0,23 0,3
10
0,25
2,5
8
8 0,15 0,2
1,5 2,0
6 0,12
6
0,15
0,8
1,5
4 0,1
4
1,0
2 0,9 3,2 7 11,3 12,7 12,9 12,6 12,4 0,05
2
4 10 12 15 0 0
0,5
2
0 0,0
2008A 2009A 2010E 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
USB-modems, mln units USB-modems, bn USD
mln units bn USD
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13. 2. Market overview: Digital Devices Sales, 2010
Tablet PC sales in Russia, 2010 The structure of the mobile phone market by producers, 2010
Sales, thousand units Sales, thousand units Units USD
6,8 8,4 2%
7,8 4,2
3,8% 0,5%
6,9% 4,1% 12,5%
7,7% 35,8%
40,2%
8,2% Nokia 12,0%
Apple
Samsung
Samsung
386,1 267,1 LG
Other
31,2% SonyEricsson 35,1%
Apple
Total Total Other
НТС
NetBooks & Notebooks sales in Russia, 2010 Sales volume and structure of the smartphone market in Russia, 2010
Sales, thousand units Sales, mln USD
0,8%
0,2% 4,5% 4,2%
6%
1358 1197 956 11,4%
1076
26,3%
ASUS 1,48 bn USD 8,3% 3.93 mln
545 ACER 401 units
1092 732
SAMSUNG 66,7% Symbian
660 71,6%
HEWLETT PACKARD 632 Windows Mobile
1046 712
LENOVO Android
Other Apple
Total Total
Other
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14. 2. Market overview: Russian Internet Access vs. World
Fixed Broadband Internet Penetration in Russia and selected countries, 2010 Mobile Broadband Internet Penetration in Russia and selected countries, 2010
100%
434,6 86% 88% 500,0
233,0 77%
75%
250,0 90,0%
90% 450,0
68% 71% 72%
64%
80,0%
80% 400,0
165,4
200,0
70% 350,0 70,0%
60% 300,0
47% 60,0%
36% 38%
150,0
50%
36% 250,0
37% 50,0%
40% 200,0
97,7 54% 40,0%
30% 118,9 100,0
22% 26%
17%
30% 150,0
30,0%
20%
52,9 40,8 45,5 100,0
29,7 25,8 7,6
50,0
22,5 22,6
20,0%
10%
3,4 50,0
21,3 6,3 3,6
31,3
10,0%
0% -
0,0 0,0%
Total number of households Penetration, % Subscriptions, mln Penetration (per 100 inhabitants), %
Russian Fixed Broadband Internet Penetration Forecast Russian Mobile Internet access Forecast
65% 93,7
40,0
61% 70%
100
88,9 1,8
55% 90
75,4 66% 1,6
35,0
50% 60%
80
63% 1,4
30,0
43% 50%
70
57,6 53% 1,2
25,0
36% 60
41%
1
29% 40%
50
41,1 87% 93%
20,0
24% 31,3 74%
0,8
31,9 34,3 30%
40
24 17% 24,6 29%
15,0
26,2 29,2 30
55%
0,6
22,9 20%
42% 17% 22%
19,3
0,4
32%
10,0 20
15,6 28% 26%
5,0
12,8 10%
10
0,2
0 0
0,0 0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total number of households Penetration*, % Number of users, million
Share of Fixed Internet access subs using Mobile Internet
Mobile penetration, %
*Penetration of fixed broadband, fixed WiMAX and fixed Wi-Fi access in Russia in households
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15. 2. Market overview: Russian Internet Access vs. World
Fixed Broadband Internet Penetration in the World Biggest Cities, 2010 Internet Active Users Audience in Russia, 2008-2015
120,0
68,6% 69,7% 80,0%
64,1%
58,4%
70,0%
100,0
53,0% 60,0%
80,0
44,6% 50,0%
37,2%
60,0
30,9% 40,0%
30,0%
40,0
20,0%
20,0
10,0%
0,99 0,99 0,97 0,96 0,96 0,92 0,89 0,87 0,76 0,62 44,3 53,3 63,7 75,6 83,2 91,1 97,3 98,6
0,0 0,0%
2008 2009 2010E 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
Number of users, million Internet users penetration, %
Moscow and St. Petersburg occupy 30% of the internet market in Russia.
The level of internet penetration in large cities of Russia is comparable to the world capitals level.
Moscow St. Petersburg
Internet penetration in Russia is increasing rapidly
Russian Government has ambitious plans to increase internet penetration up to 100% within 5 years
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16. 2. Market overview: Russian Online Games Market
Online Games Market Volume in Russia and Selected Countries, 2010 The number of online games users in Russia and selected countries, 2010
140,0 $6,00
124
$5,02
120,0 $4,61 $5,00
100,0 87
$4,00 81
80,0
66
$3,00
57
60,0
47
$1,26 $1,31 $2,00
40,0
27 30
22
$0,49 14 17 16
9
$1,00
20,0
27,3 73,64 111,9 118,8 3 1
-
17,9 $-
Russia South Korea Japan China USA Russia USA China South Korea Japan
The number of users million people. Market volume, billion USD MMO games Casual Social network games
Russian online games market Forecast, 2008-2015 Popular Russian online games, 2010
$1,32
5% 4%
$1,40 60,0
$1,16 Legenda: Nasledie Drakonov
$1,20
$1,00 50,0
5% 23% Geroi voini I deneg
$0,84 5% Lineage 2
$1,00
48,1 40,0
$0,80
$0,67 43,5 6% Perfect World
38,1
$0,49
30,0
Boitsovskii Club
$0,60
31,6
World of Warcraft
$0,29 25,1 20,0
14% Troetsarstvie
$0,40
$0,15 17,9 23%
Wizards World
10,0
$0,20
12,1
$-
2,0 0,0
Territoria
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 16% TimeZero
17%
The number of users, million people. Market volume, billion USD
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17. 2. Market overview: Russian Social Networks
Social networks penetration in Russia and selected countries, 2010 Social networks market volume in Russia and Selected Countries, 2010
185,3%
400,0
353,4 200,0%
153,3% 180,0% bln USD
2,22
350,0
136,7% 160,0%
300,0
140,0%
1,96
250,0
120,0%
200,0
175,9 100,0%
58,2% 80,0%
1,07
38,6%
150,0
60,0%
100,0
37,5 39,7 40,0%
0,32 0,31
50,0 17,6 20,0%
0,0 0,0%
China Russia USA Japan South Korea South Korea Russia Japan China USA
Number of Internet users, million Penetration, %
Number of social network users in Russia, 2009-2015 Russian social networks market volume, 2009-2015
1,51
80,0 90%
77%
69% 73% 80%
67%
70,0
62% 1,23
58%
70%
60,0
55%
50,0
60%
0,97
50%
40,0
0,74
40%
30,0
0,53
30%
20,0
20%
0,31
10,0
0,11
31,0 37,5 49,7 58,3 65,3 72 76
10%
0,0 0%
2009 2010E 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2009 2010E 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
Social networks market volume, bn USD
Number of social network users, million
Share of Internet users who uses social networks from the total number of Internet users,%
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18. 2. Market overview: Russian Social Networks, Income (%), 2010
3%
24%
32% 11% 11%
26%
49%
59% 63% 60%
83% 69%
49% 97%
4% 38% 53% 89%
30%
17%
20% 25% 20%
47% 10%
24% 7% 30% 23% vkontakte.ru my.mail.ru odnoklassniki.ru livejournal.com liveinternet.ru
17%
10%
World USA China Southern Korea Japan Russia Games and applications Payment services Advertisement
Games and applications Payment services Advertisement
Socio-demographic categories of Russian social networks users
Age categories, % Gender structure, %
12-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 >45 Women Men
5.0% 32.8% 40.5% 14.1% 7.6% 52.0% 48.0%
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19. Источник: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
2. Market overview: Advertising volume in Russia vs. World
Advertising market volume in Russia, 1Q 2011, mln USD Internet advertising market volume in Russia and selected countries, bn USD
23,3 120
106 1,7
236,7 2,1
91,5 1,3 2,8
8% 77,2 1,9 24,8
6% 0,9 2,4
5% 63,1 1,5 21,6
243,3 0,6 1,3 18,5 2,1
1,8
0,8 0,7 15,4 46,2
950 1,5 39,9
95% 12,2 33,6
281,7 94% 27,6
92% 22,1
35,8 40,4 44,5
26,6 31,1
73,3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
TV Radio Advertising market
Print Media Outdoor advertising USA Europe, Middle East and Africa Asia-Pacific Latin America Canada Russia
Internet advertising market Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Internet Others
The growth rates of Internet advertising market, 2007-2012 The growth rates of Internet advertising market, 2007-2012
3,53
2,85 0,21 2007 37% 8% 39% 16% 100%
0,22
2,24 0,18 World
2012 40% 14% 28% 17% 100%
1,70 0,15 2,18
1,26 1,75 2007 22%
22% 11% 58% 9% 100%
0,76 0,92 1,34
0,65 Germany 2012 21%
21% 19% 52% 8% 100%
1,00
0,72
0,37 0,35 0,52 0,78 0,91
0,34 0,31 0,41 0,52 0,65 2007 48% 5% 22% 25% 100%
0,24
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Russia 2012 54% 16% 13% 17% 100%
Others Print media Internet TV
Unusual placement and campaigns Video advertising
Сontextual advertising Media (banner advertisement) Sources: ZenithOptimedia, J’son & Partners Consulting
Sources: market players information, AKAR, ZenithOptimedia, J'son & Partners Consulting Russia is № 1 in terms of growth rates of internet advertising
Last year, Russia became the fastest-growing online advertising market in the BRICS, overtaking China, India and Brazil. The Russian
Internet advertising market grew by 42% in 2010 in comparison to 2009, while China grew by 35% and in India and Brazil by 30% each.
Online context advertising increased its share from 53.7% in 2009 to 56.1% in 2010.
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20. 2. Market overview: Russian TV & video Markets Development Forecast
Changes in Russian TV/Video Watching Time*, % TV, Video, Internet Services Penetration Forecast in Russia, %
1% 3% 82% 83%
9% 6% 9% 12% 80%
11% 15% 17% 79%
19% 21% 74% 76% 63%
24% 61%
Web TV 72% 60%
56% 59%
57% 53% 60%
DVD 54% 39% 46%
88% 86% 24% 31% 67% 70%
82% 78% 18% 57% 62%
73% 68% PTV 44% 51%
62% 37%
48% 52% 55% 58% 60%
FTA 41% 45%
98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
FTA PTV Broadband Web TV DVD Cinema
Web TV Penetration in Russia (% of population) Market Forecast of paid online video
14,6%
85 45
13,2% 16,0%
90
76 70%
11,1%
40
14,0%
80
66 60%
35
41
55
70 12,0%
60%
50%
30 8,7%
44
60
10,0%
53%
6% 29
40% 25
34
50
46% 4,9%
8,0%
25 4%
40 20
30%
30
39% 15
6,0%
20
31% 20%
10
2,1% 17 4,0%
10
18% 24%
10%
4
1,7
2,0%
0,72
5
0 0%
0
9 0,0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
The audience Web TV, mln people Penetration of Web TV, % Internet video advertising Market share on Internet video advertising
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