Author: Ortwin Renn University of Stuttgart

1. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 1|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
Towards Increased Resilience: The
Contributions of IT for Crisis
Preparedness and Risk Communication
Ortwin Renn
University of Stuttgart
ISCRAM 2013 Baden-Baden
Chemin de Balexert 9, CH – 1219 Châtelaine, Geneva, Switzerland | tel +41 (0)22 795 17 30 fax +41 (0)22 795 17 39 | www.irgc.org

2. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 2|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
Need for Prevention and Anticipation
1. Definition of Crisis:
A situation of immediate threat to crucial functions of relevant systems that
serve critical human needs and wants based on the release of energy,
substance or information
2. First Priority: Anticipating emerging crisis with the goal of prevention
3. Second Priority: Developing a system of emergency preparedness that
reduces the impact of crisis
4. Third priority: Assuring recovery after the crisis has occurred

3. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 3|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
IRGC’s RISK GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK

4. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 4|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
A Protocol for Anticipating and Preventing Crises
Option assessment
and evaluation
Describing the
context
identification&
characterisation
Scenario
development
Risk tolerance/
preference/
attitude
Option creation
Implementing
and monitoring
- Amplification
- Attenuation
Communication
Conventional Risk
governance
I
II
III
IV
V

5. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 5|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
II Scenario Development-1
The organisation needs to develop narratives about the possible
threats and their interactions with other systems to which they are
connected
Scenarios should include best and worst case but also a
backcasting approach of defining a desirable crisis response
and determining the steps to reach such an outcome
Scenarios should be accompanied by a thorough sensitivity
analysis
Organization should simulate responses to each of the scenarios
in order to be prepared. Simulation tools such a agent-based
models are key to anticipating “realistic” crisis situations

6. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 6|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
II Scenario Development-2
Other Methods for “anticipating” pending crises:
–Signal observation (early warning by indicators)
–Dynamic monitoring
–Modelling
–Technological foresight
–Horizon scanning
–Using “Swarm Intelligence”: Crisis-Pedia
 .

7. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 7|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
III Strategic Risk Handling
Scenarios give rise to multiple intervention points in a
normally escalating development of potential threats
(time-dependent)
Decision makers need to agree in advance at which
point in the timeline of potential crisis events an
intervention is crucial and which level of escalation is
still tolerable
This exercise needs to be performed for each scenario
A close monitoring system is necessary to understand
which scenario is likely to occur and when intervention
points are likely to pop up

8. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 8|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
IV Option Creation / Design I
There exist 4 broad strategies:
1. Influence the contributing factors
• Place special emphasis on interactions of contributing factors.
2. Change the risk tolerance level (raise it);
• focus on the risk absorbing system; increase robustness
3. Improve the resilience of the system;
• that is be prepared for shocks or unexpected surprises.
4. Do more monitoring, seek more signals from early-
warning systems.
that is to be on alert the further you move on the timeline
+ Pro-active communication strategy

9. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 9|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
IV Option Creation/Design II
If different scenarios are played out and there is no clear
indication which one is going to occur, the IRGC
framework suggests a management strategy based on
resilience. This implies:
–Being prepared for the worst scenario to occur
–Investing in reducing vulnerabilities
–Trying to contain risk in space and time
–Be prepared to intervene instantaneously if things turn
out to be worse than expected

10. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 10|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
V Option Assessment and Evaluation I
It is necessary to have a set of options ready for each
intervention point on each scenario
Types of intervention will be tested against:
–Effectiveness
–Efficiency
–Sustainability (economic, ecological, social)
–Socio-political acceptability (for example equity)
–Ethical standards (corporate responsibility)
Computer-Aided decision tools are helpful in
conducting this multi-criteria evaluation

11. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 11|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
V Option Assessment and Evaluation /II
Elements for how to evaluate the options (which leads to
prioritising and determining a strategy for managing the emerging
crsis) include:
–analyse the distribution of risks and benefits: when they align
well, risks are easier to manage and to communicate
–identify a “risk owner”, who will be responsible for managing it.
–work on the specific case of “moral hazard”, when no one
owns the risk (often the case with emerging risk to the
environment, but also as we have seen in the financial
systems or in public health, e.g. with pandemics)

12. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 12|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
Communication
In the early phases of risk governance, internal
communication is crucial (early warning system must
be well established in organisational hierarchy)
For developing scenarios, identifying intervention
opportunities and designing intervention options, the
inclusion of external experts and stakeholders is crucial
for success
In the late phases of risk governance external
communication is central to reputation management
and external support (internet is key to dissemination)

13. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 13|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
Institutional Requirements
Preparing for emerging crises requires special organisational
structures and procedures:
–Organisations need departments or units that perform early warning
functions and have direct access to key decision makers within the
organisation.
–Staff in these departments need to be trained to produce scenarios
and intervention points in a coherent and convincing manner.
–It is advisable to use computer simulation methods to illustrate these
scenarios and make them more plausible to those who need to
prepare interventions.
–For developing scenarios and identifying options for each
intervention point, staff members should be trained to use the
appropriate communication tools,
–Once a risk is identified, there needs to be a department or unit that
deals with the external communication to the media and the public.

14. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 14|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
Conclusions
1. The possibility of crises and disaster are part of technological change, and
requires anticipatory preventive actions, not just emergency preparedness
2. Coping with emerging crises requires a more dynamic governance model
that provides a timeline for various scenarios of risks and opportunities
3. Prudent management includes the identification of potential intervention
points and pre-set tolerance levels for justifying interventions or non-action
4. Assessment of opportunities and risks have to be updated constantly
(adaptive management and continuous monitoring)
5. Depending on the phase in the timeline different communication targets
need to be addressed
6. Much of what is needed is common sense yet, without institutional and
organizational structures and procedures in place, routines will be
dominating the process and ignorance is likely to win over vigilance

15. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 15|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
Additions
1. EXTRA Slides

16. World Congress on Risk International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) 16|Sydney, July 18-20, 2012
Communication II
Communicating emerging risks faces specific challenges that
go beyond traditional risk communication problems:
–Disbelief in the existence of a threat (discarded as undue pessimism)
–Blame-the-messenger attitude when potential risks are reported to
decision makers
–Messages about risks are likely to get little attention when
organization is performing with great success
–Language barriers (decision makers not familiar with multiple
scenarios and simulations)
–Dominance of a “wait and see” attitude if decision makers are faced
with multiple uncertainties
–Decision makers have often little sensitivity to amplification
processes when crucial intervention points have been missed