International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). Conference on "Towards what works in Rural Development in Ethiopia: Evidence on the Impact of Investments and Policies". December 13, 2013. Hilton Hotel, Addis Ababa.

1. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH INSTITUTE
The Impact of Ethiopia’s Productive
Safety Nets Programme: 2006-2012
Guush Berhane, John Hoddinott, Neha Kumar, Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse
IFPRI
Towards what works in rural development in Ethiopia: Evidence on the impact of
investments and policies
December 13th, 2013
Hilton Hotel, Addis Ababa
1

2. Outline

The PSNP
 a brief description,
 impact assessment - method, findings;
 challenges

Key lessons;

3. The PSNP – Key Features
 Motivation
 the drought of 2002-03;
 New Coalition for Food Security in Ethiopia (2003)
 Features
 Coordination and commitment – donors (9), government;
 Predictability - multi-year planning and financing;
 Combine transfers with asset building – PW plus direct support ;
 Integrated with the broader development agenda;
 Large
o Beneficiaries - Up to 8 million persons, nearly 300 woredas (40%);
o Cost - US$1.5 billion (2005-09); US$2.1 billion (2010-14)

4. The PSNP – Impact
Methodology - Data
 Four rounds (2006, 2008, 2010, 2012) of quantitative household survey
covering approximately 3,700 beneficiary and non-beneficiary households;
 Household survey is complemented by:


Community survey (infrastructure, resources, prices)
Since 2010: a woreda capacity survey; an in-depth qualitative study; survey and
qualitative work extended to pastoral regions
 Data collected can be divided into three broad types: Outcomes,
Operations, Context
Methodology – Approach
 Estimate the difference between outcomes achieved by beneficiaries and by
comparison groups – matching (NNM, PSM, GPSM), dose response,
difference-in-difference

6. The PSNP – Impact
 Findings

Five years (2006-2010) of participation in the PSNP-PW:
o

reduced the length of the food gap by 1.29 months per year;
Between 2010 and 2012 participation in the PSNP-PW
o
increased food security by 1.48 months;
o
increase over a two year period is larger than that achieved in the
first five years of the program;
impacts increase with payment levels and frequency of payment;
o
Note: these impacts occurred against the background of rising
food prices and drought

7. The PSNP – Impact
 Findings

Between 2010 and 2012, Direct Support payments
improved food security by 1.93 months;

Improvements in the implementation of the PSNP in Afar
and Somali since 2010:
o
a positive impact of the PSNP on food security for poor
households;

8. The PSNP – Implementational Challenges
 Timeliness of payments to beneficiaries were major
problem – improved significantly in the last two years;

Payment delays undercut a central premise of the PSNP - regular and
predictable transfers;

Payment delays dilute PSNP’s impact on household food security;
 Implementation capacity and targeting remains major
problem in the Afar and Somali;

9. Key Lessons
 Process
 Dialogue – genuine;
 What and how – implementation strategy;
 Monitoring and evaluation
 a part of the initial design and mutual understanding;
 independent but collaborative – government, donors, the
national statistical agency, external evaluators;
 interim rigorous evaluations – four so far;
o Create opportunities to learn and adjust (Payroll and Attendance Sheet
System (PASS), Client cards )
o Help bridge results-based budgeting and longer term programming
designed to achieve impact