1) The Horn of Africa faces recurring droughts that interact with population growth, climate change, and shrinking lands to threaten pastoralist livelihoods. 2) While pastoralism remains important, diversification into urban jobs, irrigation, and education can boost resilience by providing alternatives to pastoralism. 3) Strategic investments in irrigation, infrastructure, and education delivery models can promote development and support both pastoralists and alternative livelihoods in the region.

1. ENHANCING RESILIENCE AND PROMOTING
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HORN OF AFRICA -
AN EXPLORATION INTO ALTERNATIVE
INVESTMENT OPTIONS
Derek Headey, Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, Liang You
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
1

2. 1. Background
The Horn of Africa has witnessed recurring and
devastating droughts, seemingly with more
frequency
But vulnerability to drought is only part of the
problem – there is an interplay between shocks
and underlying stresses (population growth,
climate change, shrinking grazing lands)
This interplay is not controversial, yet it’s also not
well understood which factors matter most

3. Rough estimates of the number of people affected by
droughts in the Horn of Africa: 1970-2010
14000000
Number of people "affected" by drought
12000000
Ethiopia Kenya Somalia
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010

4. 1. Background
 This context has produced some very polemical views:
sedentarization vs. preservation of pastoralism
 Can either view draw on a strong evidence base?
 IFPRI was asked by USAID revisit that evidence base in
the context of some tough questions:
1. Can pastoralism be sustained in the face of these
stresses and shocks?
2. What role should other sectors play in promoting a
more resilient development path?
 In addition to “What to do?” there is “How to do?”

5. 2. Pastoralism:
characteristics, constraints, pot
ential

6. 2. Pastoralism
Malnutrition prevalence in Ethiopia 2010
• ASAL population not 60%
Chronic (stunting) Acute (wasting)
necessarily poor in 50%
relative terms, but very 40%
vulnerable 30%
• Wealth stems from 20%
livestock, but where
does vulnerability 10%
come from? 0%
Regions*

7. 2. Pastoralism
• Superficially, livestock mortality is the main cause of
vulnerability in ASAL regions, and drought is the main
cause of livestock mortality
• But why don’t pastoralists destock prior to drought
and restock afterwards?
• Lack of early warning? Poor access to markets?
Cultural attachment to livestock?
• Dominant theory is missing markets for destocking,
restocking, insurance & credit
• So pastoralists hold on to animals more than they
would if markets worked

8. Figure 4. Herd size threshold effects that push households out of pastoralism
Source: Lybert et al. (2004).

9. 2. Pastoralism
• So the superficial answer is that drought renders
pastoralists vulnerable, and has pushed many out
• But looking deeper, is it shocks that cause this or the
interaction of shocks with various stresses?
1. Climate change? Some evidence of drier conditions
from warming of Indian Ocean (Funk et al. 2009)
2. Rapid population growth? 2-3% per year
3. Mobility restrictions? Yes, but could also be related to
population growth as well as policies & institutions
• So while pastoralists may be rational and efficient,
indefinite population growth is not sustainable

10. 2. Pastoralism
• What do these facts imply about pastoralism & resilience?
1. Pastoralism is too big to fail – in the medium term it is
impossible to create enough viable livelihoods in other
sectors (and livestock has strong potential)
2. Diversification is also essential – resilience of
pastoralism can be improved by both better land & water
management, but also by diversification
3. Critical to understand commercialization:
opportunities, constraints, engagement with the poor
4. Improve drought management: destocking, restocking,
insurance, interactions with commercialization

11. 3. Non-pastoralist livelihoods
• The share of pastoralism in ASAL incomes is thought
to have been declining for some time
• Recent snapshots also tell us that there is variation
across space, and significant populations are
engaged in sedentary farming (irrigated and non-
irrigated) and firewood/charcoal production,
smaller shares in trade, various types of labor,
shopkeeping, etc.

13. Table 4. Average income by livelihood category, and by highest and lowest
returns: Somali region 2005
Activity types Birr/ % HHs Most & least lucrative Birr/
month engageda activities month
Most lucrative activities
Trading 615 3.8% 1. Contraband trader 1,607
Rents 502 <2% 2. Construction worker 1,307
Labor 447 2.4% 3. Carpentry/metal-worker 873
Services 300 10% 4. Khat trader 868
Food /drink proc. 244 8% 5. Selling meat 853
Livestock 216 69.9% Least lucrative activities
Crop farming 210 50-55% 60. Charcoal seller 100
Small industry 182 6.3% 61. Firewood collector 88
Begging 123 <2% 62. Basket/mat maker 88
Natural products 117 25-30% 63. Selling eggs 79
64. Beekeeper 77

14. 3. Non-pastoralist livelihoods
• Similar picture in Borena region and north-eastern
Kenya
• Upshot is the following ranking of livelihoods:
1. Urban livelihoods pay best
2. Irrigated livelihoods second best
3. Pastoralism third
4. Agro-pastoralism (rainfed farming) distant fourth
5. Firewood/charcoal pa a very distant fifth
• So seems a good idea to promote urbanization and
irrigation – but in both cases there are capacity
constraints over the medium term

15. 3. Non-pastoralist livelihoods
• For irrigation, it’s important to look back and look
forward
• Behnke et al. (2010) look at mature irrigation schemes
in Afar, since these are the most mature in the region
• Several irrigation schemes performed poorly, but sugar
generates major income for govt (pastoralism doesn’t)
• Looking forward, we use a recent GIS model to estimate
profitable irrigation potential for ASALs
• Then use these area estimate to calculate some crude
back-of-the-envelope estimates of potential job creation

16. Figure 6. A map of
profitable irrigable
areas by lowland and
highlands of eastern
Africa
Source: Authors construction from data and methods described in Liang et al. (forthcoming).
Notes: Lowlands (highlands) are defined as areas below (above) 1500 meters in altitude. This is a standard definition in Ethiopia, but may perhaps be too high in Kenya. IRR refers to internal rate of

17. Table 6. Profitably irrigable area in the ASALs of eastern African countriesa
Source: Authors’ estimates based on the data and methods described in Liang et al. (forthcoming).
Cost Countries Profitable Rural ASAL % of 6-person rural %of 6-person rural HHs
scenarios c that could work 0.5
increase in population in HHs that could work 1
area (Ha)b 2020 (millions) irrigated hectaree irrigated hectarese
Low Ethiopia 217,060 22.7 5.7% 11.4%
cost Kenya 291,486 19.7 8.9% 17.8%
Djibouti 7 0.2 0.0% 0.0%
Somalia 14,297 7.3 1.2% 2.4%
Total 522,850 49.9 6.3% 12.6%
Medium Ethiopia 159,568 23 4.2% 8.4%
cost Kenya 152,869 20 4.7% 9.4%
Djibouti 7 0 0.0% 0.0%
Somalia 8,245 7 0.7% 1.4%
Total 320,689 50 3.9% 7.8%
High Ethiopia 156,030 23 4.1% 8.2%
cost Kenya 108,762 20 3.3% 6.6%
Djibouti 0 0 0.0% 0.0%
Somalia 1,293 7 0.1% 0.2%
Total 266,085 50 3.2% 6.4%

18. 3. Non-pastoralist livelihoods
• What about urbanization and migration?
• Both ASAL data and surveys from other developing
regions tend to show that education is a requirement
for successful migration
• Education also important for improved governance,
reducing fertility rates and female empowerment
• The question is how best to deliver these services:
boarding schools, mobile schools, distance learning, etc

19. Figure 7. A map of literacy status in Ethiopia by pastoralist and non-pastoralist woredas

20. 3. Non-pastoralist livelihoods
• Other interventions could benefit both pastoralist and non-
pastoralist livelihoods
• Infrastructure important, but in low population density
environments investments need to be very strategic.
• On the positive side, roads have been transformative in
Borena, Garissa, and other parts of the region
• But roads in lowland areas have sometimes been criticized
for low rate of usage (low benefit-cost ratios)
• Also, there is an argument for more strategic use of space
in general. Where should infrastructures be clustered?
Where are there dangers of over-clustering?

21. 4. Summing up
• An economic interpretation of the evidence suggests
that a balance development strategy is needed.
• Pastoralism has significant advantages, but major
risks – Can commercialization enhance resilience?
Can it be pro-poor? What does that package entail?
• Resilience of pastoralists & ASAL population as a
whole will also require some pastoralists to exit,
ideally into urban livelihoods and irrigation
• Education and infrastructure most likely the big
ticket cross-cutting investments, but innovative
service delivery will be key