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ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT
                                    RESEARCH INSTITUTE




A Spatial Assessment of Livestock
Population and Market Access
                Helina Tilahun
                Emily Schmidt

                IFPRI ESSP-II

                Ethiopian Economic
                Association Conference
                July 19-21, 2012
                Addis Ababa


                                                            1
Overview
• What are the current trends in cattle, sheep and goat
  population?
   – Where are most of the livestock population located?
• Herd composition

• Travel time

• Pressure on grazing land?

• Links smallholder livestock population data and
  Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data.


                                                           2
Current Trends
• Livestock population in Ethiopia continues to grow,
  with the highland regions producing the largest share
  of cattle, sheep and goats.

• Livestock population (cattle, sheep, and goat)
  increased 22 percentage points between 2005 and
  2008.

   – Oromiya, Amhara and SNNP regions produced 87 percent
     of cattle in 2007/08.



                                                            3
Cattle Population
           60

           50

           40



Millions
                                                        CSA
           30                                           FAO

           20

           10

            0
                2005/06           2006/07     2007/08


                   Sheep and Goat Population
           60

           50

           40
Millions




                                                        CSA
           30                                           FAO

           20
                                                              Source: Author’s
                                                              calculations;
           10
                                                              CSA: Agricultural Sample
            0
                                                              Survey (2005–2008) and
                                                              FAO (2005–2008)
                2005/06           2006/07     2007/08




                                                                                         4
Herd Composition: Ethiopia

• Sheep and goat population is increasing compared to cattle
  population in all regions.

• In 2000/2001 a majority of regions produced more cattle than
  sheep and goat.

• By 2007/08, sheep and goat population dominated in
  Tigray, Amhara, Benishangul Gumuz, Harari.




                                                                 7
Ethiopia: Sheep and Goat to Cattle Ratio
                               (2000 – 2008)

Region            2001/02*                                  2005/06                  2006/07                2007/08
Tigray                0.92                                     1.22                     1.27                   1.41
Afar                  2.88                                     3.11                     3.05                   3.19
Amhara                0.87                                     1.23                     1.28                   1.27
Oromiya               0.49                                     0.74                     0.76                   0.80
Somali                2.27                                     2.41                     2.90                   4.48
Benishangul Gumuz     0.84                                     1.09                     1.33                   1.26
SNNP                  0.66                                     0.68                     0.78                   0.69
Gambella              0.74                                     0.74                     0.74                   0.48
Harari                0.73                                     1.00                     1.03                   1.13
Addis Ababa           0.46                                     0.58                     0.49                   0.46
Dire Dawa             2.31                                     4.64                     4.77                   4.30
Source: Authors’ calculations; CSA: Agricultural Census (2001) and Agricultural Sample Survey (2005-2008)




                                                                                                                      8
Ratio of Sheep and Goat to Cattle
                                              (1990 – 2009)

                             100

                              90

                              80

                              70
 Million head of livestock




                                                                                                                                    Sheep
                              60                                                                                          Cattle   Shoats
                                                                                                                                    and
                                                                                                                                    goats
                              50

                              40

                              30

                              20

                              10

                               0
                                   Ethiopia 2000   Ethiopia 2005   Ethiopia 2009   Kenya 2000   Kenya 2005   Kenya 2009


Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)




                                                                                                                                            9
Market Access and Livestock Population
•   Transportation infrastructure and access to livestock markets has improved
    considerably between 2000 and 2008.
     –   Better road infrastructure enables the highland areas to prevail as primary supplier of livestock for
         the domestic markets in Ethiopia (FEWS NET, 2007).
     –   Although the cost of trucking livestock is higher compared to trekking, traders and producers prefer
         trucking fattened animals in order to avoid weight loss (Gebremedhin et al. 2007).


•   Data suggest that cattle population is higher within 5 hours of a major livestock
    market.

•   In 2001/02, 57 percent of cattle population in Amhara region were located within
    5 hours of market, in 2007/08 this figure reached 73 percent; Oromia from 64 to
    81, SNNP from 60 to 78.

•   Sheep and goat population within 5 hours travel time to a market increased.
     –   But not as dependent to accessibility as cattle population.




                                                                                                                 10
Percent of Cattle Population
                     within 5 hours of a Livestock Market

100
                                         81                        78
80         77                  73
      70
                                    64                        63
                          57
60                                                                      2001
                                                                        2007
40                   28
                                              20
20              13                                 16 10 16

 -




                                                                               13
Percent of Sheep and Goat Population
                  within 5 hours of a Livestock Market

100
                                       83
80         76
      62                       66 65                            66
60
                          44                               43
40                                                                   2001
20                   15                                              2007
                10                          10 7       8
                                                   4
 -
Livestock Population and Grazing Pressure
• Pressure on grazing land is increasing:
   – greater human population density,
   – larger herd sizes, and
   – relatively fixed grazing land resources. (Benin et al., 2002; Degefe and
     Nega 2000).


• To approximate measure of livestock density per square
  kilometer of grazing land, we have paired the landcover data
  produced by the Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic
  Planning Project (WBISPP, 2000) with the estimated woreda
  livestock population figures from 2001/02 through 2007/08.



                                                                                17
East Africa: Tropical Livestock Unit
                            per sq. km of Land (thousands)
                                               Sheep and                   Total   TLU per
Country                                 Cattle      Goat            TLU     km2       km2
Ethiopia                               41,699            41,291   33,318   1,100       30

Djibouti                                    289           1,223     325      22        15

Eritrea                                  1,784            6,309    1,880    118        16

Kenya                                  10,183            20,743    9,202    546        17

Somalia                                  5,452           45,026    8,319    633        13

Uganda                                 11,518             8245     8,887    200        44
Source: Author’s calculations and Cecchi et al. (2010)




                                                                                             20
Conclusions

• Livestock population in Ethiopia continues to grow, with the highland
  regions producing the largest share.
• Data comparing herd composition suggest that the sheep and goat
  population is increasing compared to cattle population.
• Data suggest that a large majority of growth is occurring in the highland
  regions, within 5 hours of a livestock market.

• In 2007/08, more than 75 percent of cattle population in the four major
  highland regions occurred within 5 hours travel time of a market

• Sheep and goat population seems less dependent on accessibility
   •   Afar, Benishangul Gumuz




                                                                          21
Conclusions (2)


• Pressure on grazing land is also increasing

• Further research on landcover change and livestock growth in
  the highlands is necessary in order to understand pasture land /
  environmental viability in coming years.

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A spatial assessment of livestock population and market access

  • 1. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE A Spatial Assessment of Livestock Population and Market Access Helina Tilahun Emily Schmidt IFPRI ESSP-II Ethiopian Economic Association Conference July 19-21, 2012 Addis Ababa 1
  • 2. Overview • What are the current trends in cattle, sheep and goat population? – Where are most of the livestock population located? • Herd composition • Travel time • Pressure on grazing land? • Links smallholder livestock population data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data. 2
  • 3. Current Trends • Livestock population in Ethiopia continues to grow, with the highland regions producing the largest share of cattle, sheep and goats. • Livestock population (cattle, sheep, and goat) increased 22 percentage points between 2005 and 2008. – Oromiya, Amhara and SNNP regions produced 87 percent of cattle in 2007/08. 3
  • 4. Cattle Population 60 50 40 Millions CSA 30 FAO 20 10 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Sheep and Goat Population 60 50 40 Millions CSA 30 FAO 20 Source: Author’s calculations; 10 CSA: Agricultural Sample 0 Survey (2005–2008) and FAO (2005–2008) 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 4
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. Herd Composition: Ethiopia • Sheep and goat population is increasing compared to cattle population in all regions. • In 2000/2001 a majority of regions produced more cattle than sheep and goat. • By 2007/08, sheep and goat population dominated in Tigray, Amhara, Benishangul Gumuz, Harari. 7
  • 8. Ethiopia: Sheep and Goat to Cattle Ratio (2000 – 2008) Region 2001/02* 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Tigray 0.92 1.22 1.27 1.41 Afar 2.88 3.11 3.05 3.19 Amhara 0.87 1.23 1.28 1.27 Oromiya 0.49 0.74 0.76 0.80 Somali 2.27 2.41 2.90 4.48 Benishangul Gumuz 0.84 1.09 1.33 1.26 SNNP 0.66 0.68 0.78 0.69 Gambella 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.48 Harari 0.73 1.00 1.03 1.13 Addis Ababa 0.46 0.58 0.49 0.46 Dire Dawa 2.31 4.64 4.77 4.30 Source: Authors’ calculations; CSA: Agricultural Census (2001) and Agricultural Sample Survey (2005-2008) 8
  • 9. Ratio of Sheep and Goat to Cattle (1990 – 2009) 100 90 80 70 Million head of livestock Sheep 60 Cattle Shoats and goats 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ethiopia 2000 Ethiopia 2005 Ethiopia 2009 Kenya 2000 Kenya 2005 Kenya 2009 Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) 9
  • 10. Market Access and Livestock Population • Transportation infrastructure and access to livestock markets has improved considerably between 2000 and 2008. – Better road infrastructure enables the highland areas to prevail as primary supplier of livestock for the domestic markets in Ethiopia (FEWS NET, 2007). – Although the cost of trucking livestock is higher compared to trekking, traders and producers prefer trucking fattened animals in order to avoid weight loss (Gebremedhin et al. 2007). • Data suggest that cattle population is higher within 5 hours of a major livestock market. • In 2001/02, 57 percent of cattle population in Amhara region were located within 5 hours of market, in 2007/08 this figure reached 73 percent; Oromia from 64 to 81, SNNP from 60 to 78. • Sheep and goat population within 5 hours travel time to a market increased. – But not as dependent to accessibility as cattle population. 10
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. Percent of Cattle Population within 5 hours of a Livestock Market 100 81 78 80 77 73 70 64 63 57 60 2001 2007 40 28 20 20 13 16 10 16 - 13
  • 14. Percent of Sheep and Goat Population within 5 hours of a Livestock Market 100 83 80 76 62 66 65 66 60 44 43 40 2001 20 15 2007 10 10 7 8 4 -
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. Livestock Population and Grazing Pressure • Pressure on grazing land is increasing: – greater human population density, – larger herd sizes, and – relatively fixed grazing land resources. (Benin et al., 2002; Degefe and Nega 2000). • To approximate measure of livestock density per square kilometer of grazing land, we have paired the landcover data produced by the Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project (WBISPP, 2000) with the estimated woreda livestock population figures from 2001/02 through 2007/08. 17
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. East Africa: Tropical Livestock Unit per sq. km of Land (thousands) Sheep and Total TLU per Country Cattle Goat TLU km2 km2 Ethiopia 41,699 41,291 33,318 1,100 30 Djibouti 289 1,223 325 22 15 Eritrea 1,784 6,309 1,880 118 16 Kenya 10,183 20,743 9,202 546 17 Somalia 5,452 45,026 8,319 633 13 Uganda 11,518 8245 8,887 200 44 Source: Author’s calculations and Cecchi et al. (2010) 20
  • 21. Conclusions • Livestock population in Ethiopia continues to grow, with the highland regions producing the largest share. • Data comparing herd composition suggest that the sheep and goat population is increasing compared to cattle population. • Data suggest that a large majority of growth is occurring in the highland regions, within 5 hours of a livestock market. • In 2007/08, more than 75 percent of cattle population in the four major highland regions occurred within 5 hours travel time of a market • Sheep and goat population seems less dependent on accessibility • Afar, Benishangul Gumuz 21
  • 22. Conclusions (2) • Pressure on grazing land is also increasing • Further research on landcover change and livestock growth in the highlands is necessary in order to understand pasture land / environmental viability in coming years.