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Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 05 june 2013
1. DAILY I FOREX REPORT
5TH
JUN 2013
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300
2. WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300
European Forex Traders
Distracted By Asian And
Australasian Action
US Dollar Correction May
Extend on Supportive Fed
Rhetoric
The US Dollar mounted a spirited recovery in overnight trade,
adding as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading
counterparts. The move appears to be a retracement in the
context of yesterday’s aggressive selloff, which yielded the
largest single-day decline in close to a year. This followed a
dismal ISM Manufacturing print that weighed against Federal
Reserve QE reduction bets, sending the greenback lower and
offering a boost to risk appetite.
Looking ahead, a quiet economic data docket in European and US
trading hours puts the spotlight on scheduled commentary from
Federal Reserve policymakers Esther George and Sarah Bloom
Raskin. Both are current members of the rate-setting FOMC and
traders will be keen to parse their commentary as expectations
for a tapering of QE asset purchases continue to evolve. Between
Ms. George and Ms. Bloom Raskin, the rhetoric on offer is likely to
fall on the neutral-to-hawkish side of the policy spectrum. That
may weigh on sentiment and further support the US unit.
Technical positioning points to a broader bearish outlook
however.
The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar took a beating in
Asia having outperformed over the preceding 24 hours,
underscoring the corrective nature of Asia-session price action.
Indeed, the key bit of event risk on the day – the RBA interest rate
decision – didn’t produce adiscretely significant response from
price action. The Japanese Yen likewise came under selling
pressure as the Nikkei 225 stock index mounted a sharp rebound,
weighing on the local haven unit. Japan’s equities benchmark
added over 2 percent, putting in for the strongest single-day
performance in close to a month.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.3095 TGT 1.3115/1.3135
SL 1.3065
SELL USDJPY BELOW 99.30
TGT 99.10/98.90 SL 99.60
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE
1.5345 TGT 1.5365/1.5385
SL 1.5315
HEADLINES
8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun
Jun 2
18:00
USD Fed's Bernanke
Gives Graduation
Speech at Princeton
University
Low
23:30
AUD AiG Performance
of Manufacturing Index
(MAY)
Medium 43.8 36.7
23:50
JPY Capital Spending
(1Q)
Medium -3.9% -5.5% -8.7%
23:50
JPY Capital Spending
excl Software (1Q)
Medium -5.2% -5.4% -7.2%
Mon
Jun 3
00:00
AUD RPData-Rismark
House PX Actual
(MAY)
Low -1.2% -0.5%
00:30
AUD TD Securities
Inflation (MoM) (MAY)
Low 0.2% 0.3%
00:30
AUD TD Securities
Inflation (YoY) (MAY)
Low 2.2% 2.1%
01:00
CNY Non-
manufacturing PMI
(MAY)
Medium 54.3 54.5
01:30
AUD ANZ Job
Advertisements (MoM)
(MAY)
Low -2.4% -1.7%
01:30
AUD Retail Sales s.a.
(MoM) (APR)
Medium 0.2% 0.3% -0.4%
01:30
AUD Company
Operating Profit (QoQ)
(1Q)
Low 3.0% 1.5% -0.5%
01:30 AUD Inventories (1Q) Low -0.6% 0.0% 0.2%
01:45
CNY HSBC
Manufacturing PMI
(MAY)
Medium 49.2 49.6 50.4
01:50
USD Fed's Yellen
Speaks on Regulation
in Shanghai
Low
05:00
JPY Vehicle Sales
(YoY) (MAY)
Low -7.3% 2.0%
06:30
AUD RBA Commodity
Price Index (MAY)
Low 87.0 85.5
06:30
AUD RBA Commodity
Index SDR (YoY)
(MAY)
Low -8.6% -7.3%
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
9. 07:30
CHF SVME-Purchasing
Managers Index (MAY)
Medium 52.2 50.8 50.2
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing
Manager Index
Manufacturing (MAY)
Low 47.3 46.2 45.5
07:50
EUR French
Purchasing Manager
Index Manufacturing
(MAY F)
Low 46.4 45.5 45.5
07:55
EUR German
Purchasing Manager
Index Manufacturing
(MAY F)
Medium 49.4 49.0 49.0
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
Index Manufacturing
(MAY F)
Medium 48.3 47.8 47.8
08:30
GBP Purchasing
Manager Index
Manufacturing (MAY)
Medium 51.3 50.3 50.2
11:20
USD Fed's Williams
Speaks in Stockholm
Low
12:58
USD Markit US PMI
Final (MAY)
Low 52.0 52.0
14:00
USD Construction
Spending (MoM) (APR)
Medium 0.9% -1.7%
14:00
USD ISM
Manufacturing (MAY)
High 50.7 50.7
14:00
USD ISM Prices Paid
(MAY)
Medium 49.5 50
14:00
USD Revisions to
Construction data back
to Jan. 2011
Low
21:00
USD Total Vehicle
Sales (MAY)
Low 15.10M 14.88M
21:00
USD Domestic Vehicle
Sales (MAY)
Low 11.95M 11.76M
23:01
GBP BRC Sales Like-
For-Like (MAY)
Low 1.3% -2.2%
23:50
JPY Monetary Base
(YoY) (MAY)
Low 23.1%
23:50
JPY Monetary Base
End of period (MAY)
Low ¥155.3T
Tue
Jun 4
GBP Halifax Plc House
Prices s.a. (MoM)
(MAY)
Low 0.3% 1.1%
GBP Halifax House
Price (3MoY) (MAY)
Low 2.5% 2.0%
01:30
AUD Current Account
Balance (Australian
Dollar) (1Q)
Medium -9000M -14678M
01:30
AUD Australia Net
Exports of GDP (1Q)
Low 0.8 0.6
10. 01:30
JPY Labor Cash
Earnings (YoY) (APR)
Medium -0.6%
04:30
LIVE
AUD Reserve Bank of
Australia Rate Decision
(JUN 4)
High 2.75% 2.75%
08:30
GBP Purchasing
Manager Index
Construction (MAY)
Medium 49.6 49.4
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Producer Price Index
(MoM) (APR)
Low -0.2% -0.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Producer Price Index
(YoY) (APR)
Medium 0.3% 0.7%
12:30
CAD International
Merchandise Trade
(Canadian dollar)
(APR)
Low -0.60B 0.02B
12:30
USD Annual Revisions
of the International
Trade Report
Low
12:30
USD Trade Balance
(APR)
Medium -$41.0B -$38.8B
13:45
USD ISM New York
(MAY)
Low 58.3
14:00
USD IBD/TIPP
Economic Optimism
(JUN)
Low 50 45.1
17:30
USD Fed's George
Speaks on Economy in
New Mexico
Low
22:45
NZD Value of All
Buildings s.a. (1Q)
Low 1.8%
23:01
GBP BRC Shop Price
Index (MAY)
Low 0.4%
23:30
AUD AiG Performance
of Service Index (MAY)
Medium 44.1
Wed
Jun 5
00:00
USD Fed's Fisher
Speaks on Monetary
Policy in Toronto
Low
01:00
NZD ANZ Commodity
Price (MAY)
Low 12.6%
01:30
AUD Gross Domestic
Product (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium 0.8% 0.6%
01:30
AUD Gross Domestic
Product (YoY) (1Q)
High 2.7% 3.1%
01:45
CNY HSBC Services
PMI (MAY)
Medium 51.1
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing
Manager Index
Services (MAY)
Low 47.5 47
07:50
EUR French
Purchasing Manager
Index Services (MAY F)
Low 44.3 44.3
11. 07:55
EUR German
Purchasing Manager
Index Services (MAY F)
Medium 49.8 49.8
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
Index Services (MAY F)
Medium 47.5 47.5
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
Index Composite (MAY
F)
Medium 47.7
08:30
GBP Purchasing
Manager Index
Services (MAY)
Medium 53.2 52.9
08:30
GBP Official Reserves
(Changes) (MAY)
Low -$1149M
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross
Domestic Product s.a.
(QoQ) (1Q P)
High -0.2% -0.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross
Domestic Product s.a.
(YoY) (1Q P)
High -1.0% -1.0%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Household
Consumption (QoQ)
(1Q P)
Low -0.4%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross
Fixed Capital (QoQ)
(1Q P)
Low -1.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Government
Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q
P)
Low -0.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail
Sales (MoM) (APR)
Low -0.2% -0.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail
Sales (YoY) (APR)
Medium -0.6% -2.4%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage
Applications (MAY 31)
Low -8.8%
12:15
USD ADP Employment
Change (MAY)
Medium 170K 119K
12:30
CAD Building Permits
(MoM) (APR)
Medium -2.3% 8.6%
12:30
USD Non-Farm
Productivity (1Q F)
Low 0.7% 0.7%
12:30
USD Unit Labor Costs
(1Q F)
Low 0.5% 0.5%
14:00
USD Factory Orders
(APR)
Medium 1.4% -4.0%
14:00
LIVE
USD USD ISM Non-
Manufacutring
Composite (MAY)
Medium 53.5 53.1
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude
Oil Inventories (MAY
31)
Low 3000K
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK
Crude Inventory (MAY
Low 335K
12. 31)
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Gasoline Inventories
(MAY 31)
Low -1514K
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Distillate Inventory
(MAY 31)
Low 1851K
18:00
USD US Federal
Reserve Releases
Beige Book
Medium
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Bonds (Yen)
(MAY 31)
Medium -¥1117.3B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Stocks (Yen)
(MAY 31)
Medium -¥104.9B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Bonds (Yen)
(MAY 31)
Low -¥457.2B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Stocks (Yen)
(MAY 31)
Low ¥27.4B
Thu
Jun 6
01:30
AUD Trade Balance
(Australian dollar)
(APR)
Medium 180M 307M
02:00
JPY Tokyo Avg Office
Vacancies (%) (MAY)
Low 8.54
05:30
EUR French ILO
Unemployment Rate
(1Q)
Low 10.6%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price
Index (MoM) (MAY)
Low 0.1% 0.0%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price
Index (YoY) (MAY)
Medium -0.6% -0.6%
07:15
CHF CPI - EU
Harmonised (MoM)
(MAY)
Low -0.1%
07:15
CHF CPI - EU
Harmonised (YoY)
(MAY)
Medium -0.4%
08:30
GBP Lloyds
Employment
Confidence (MAY)
Low -41
10:00
EUR German Factory
Orders s.a. (MoM)
(APR)
Low -1.0% 2.2%
10:00
EUR German Factory
Orders n.s.a. (YoY)
(APR)
Medium -0.2% -0.4%
11:00
LIVE
GBP Bank of England
Rate Decision (JUN 6)
High 0.50% 0.50%
11:00
GBP BOE Asset
Purchase Target (JUN)
High 375B 375B
11:30
USD Challenger Job
Cuts (YoY) (MAY)
Low -6.0%
13. 11:30
USD RBC Consumer
Outlook Index (JUN)
Low 50.2
11:45
LIVE
EUR European Central
Bank Rate Decision
(JUN 6)
High 0.50% 0.50%
11:45
LIVE
EUR ECB Deposit
Facility Rate (JUN 6)
High 0.00% 0.00%
12:00
USD Fed's Plosser
Speaks on Economy in
Boston
Low
12:30
USD Initial Jobless
Claims (JUN 1)
Medium 345K 354K
12:30
USD Continuing Claims
(MAY 25)
Low 2986K
14:00
CAD Ivey Purchasing
Managers Index s.a.
(MAY)
Medium 55 52.2
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas
Storage Change (MAY
31)
Low 88
16:00
USD Household
Change in Net Worth
(1Q)
Low $1174B
23:30
AUD AiG Performance
of Construction Index
(MAY)
Medium 35.2
23:50
JPY Official Reserve
Assets (MAY)
Low $1258.0B
Fri
Jun 7
GBP New Car
Registrations (YoY)
(MAY)
Low 14.8%
05:00
JPY Coincident Index
(APR P)
Low 94.9 93.8
05:00
JPY Leading Index
(APR P)
Medium 98.6 97.9
06:00
EUR German Trade
Balance (euros) (APR)
Medium 17.0B 18.8B
06:00
EUR German Current
Account (euros) (APR)
Low 13.0B 20.2B
06:00
EUR German Imports
s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.8%
06:00
EUR German Exports
s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low -0.8% 0.5%
06:00
EUR German Labor
Costs Workday Adj
(YoY) (1Q)
Low 2.9%
06:00
EUR German Labor
Costs Seas. Adj. (QoQ)
(1Q)
Low 0.8%
06:30
AUD Foreign Reserves
(Australian dollar)
(MAY)
Low A$49.8B
07:00
CHF Foreign Currency
Reserves (MAY)
Low 433.6B
14. 08:30
GBP Visible Trade
Balance (Pounds)
(APR)
Medium -£8800 -£9056
08:30
GBP Trade Balance
Non EU (Pounds)
(APR)
Medium -£3700 -£3470
08:30
GBP Total Trade
Balance (Pounds)
(APR)
Medium -£3000 -£3130
10:00
EUR German Industrial
Production s.a. (MoM)
(APR)
Low 0.3% 1.2%
10:00
EUR German Industrial
Production n.s.a. and
w.d.a. (YoY) (APR)
Medium -0.8% -2.5%
12:30
LIVE
USD Unemployment
Rate (MAY)
High 7.5% 7.5%
12:30
LIVE
USD Change in Non-
farm Payrolls (MAY)
High 168K 165K
12:30
USD Change in Private
Payrolls (MAY)
Medium 175K 176K
12:30
USD Change in
Manufacturing Payrolls
(MAY)
Low 3K 0K
12:30
USD Change in
Household
Employment (MAY)
Low 293
12:30
USD Underemployment
Rate (U6) (MAY)
Medium 13.9%
12:30
USD Average Hourly
Earning All Employees
(MoM) (MAY)
Low 0.2% 0.2%
12:30
USD Average Hourly
Earning All Employees
(YoY) (MAY)
Medium 2.1% 1.9%
12:30
USD Average Weekly
Hours All Employees
(MAY)
Low 34.5 34.4
12:30
USD Two-Month
Payroll Net Revision
(MAY)
Medium
12:30
CAD Unemployment
Rate (MAY)
High 7.1% 7.2%
12:30
CAD Net Change in
Employment (MAY)
High 18.0K 12.5K
12:30
CAD Full Time
Employment Change
(MAY)
Medium 36
12:30
CAD Part Time
Employment Change
(MAY)
Low -23.6
12:30
CAD Participation Rate
(MAY)
Low 66.5
12:30
CAD Labor Productivity
(QoQ) (1Q)
Low 0.1%
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