What is the current thinking on global climate change?
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Mitigation and adaptation strategies for coping with the potential adverse effects of global climate change. If the predictions are right, we will be living with the effects of global climate change for the rest of our lives. Many countries are now making large investments in mitigation and anticipatory adaptation actions. Leaders recogniize that the effects of global climate change will likely increase the risks for people, businesses, and communities living in or located in coastal areas or in river floodplains. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
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What is the current thinking on global climate change?
- 1. POLICYPOLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION POLICYPOLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION RISK ASSESSMENT • VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY • EXPOSUREEXPOSURE • EVENTEVENT POLICY ASSESSMENT • COSTCOST • BENEFITBENEFIT •CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES BUILDING A CULTURE OFBUILDING A CULTURE OF DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE GLOBALGLOBAL CLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECHANGE NATURALNATURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS GLOBALGLOBAL CLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECHANGE NATURALNATURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS EXPECTEDEXPECTED LOSSLOSS EXPECTEDEXPECTED LOSSLOSS
- 2. BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE UNIQUE TOOLS FOR IMPROVING EDUCATION, MITIGATION, MONITORING, AND ADAPTATION FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
- 3. BOOK OF BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And EM HI-ED And EM HI-ED
- 5. • MEDITERRANEAN REGION • EUROPE • NORTH AMERICA • SOUTH AMERICA • CARIBBEAN BASIN • OCEANIA
- 6. • ASIA RUSSIA INDIA CHINA SOUTHEAST ASIA
- 7. • GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE • DROUGHTS • EARTHQUAKES • FLOODS • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • WILDFIRES • LANDSLIDES • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • TSUNAMIS
- 8. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DROUGHTDROUGHT WILDFIRESWILDFIRES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES TSUNAMISTSUNAMIS LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES HURRICANES/ TYPHOONS HURRICANES/ TYPHOONS FLOODSFLOODS GCC AND NATURAL HAZARDSGCC AND NATURAL HAZARDS ATMOSPHERICATMOSPHERICATMOSPHERICATMOSPHERIC GEOLOGICGEOLOGICGEOLOGICGEOLOGIC HYDROLOGICHYDROLOGICHYDROLOGICHYDROLOGIC
- 9. THE DILEMNA OF DISASTER SCENARIOS FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE OCCURS AT THE LOCAL LEVEL WHERE, BROAD BRUSH STROKES ARE TOO UNCERTAIN
- 10. THE ISSUE: WERE RECENT UNUSUALLY SEVERE PHYSICAL EFFECTS EXACERBATED BY SOME OF MAN’S PAST ACTIONS, OR WERE THEY INDEPENDENT OF MAN AND EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?
- 11. WAS THE WINTER OF 2008 UNUSUAL? VERY COLD IN CHINA VERY COLD IN NEW YORK SNOW IN AMMAN, JORDAN VERY WARM IN SWEDEN VERY WARM IN NORWAY VERY WARM IN ENGLAND
- 12. SNOW IN AMMAN, JORDAN: JANUARY; 2008
- 13. WARM IN TYNEMOUTH, UK: FEBRUARY 2008
- 14. NO ICE IN NORWAY: JANUARY 2008
- 15. VERY COLD IN GUANGZHOU, CHINA: JANUARY 2008
- 16. STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN: WARMEST SINCE 1755
- 17. VERY COLD IN NEW YORK: FEBRUARY 2008
- 18. PART 1: WHAT IS THE CURRENT THINKING ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?
- 19. GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS (Typical Climates Norms Replaced by Hotter Norms) Based on a research report published by the University of Hawaii at Manoa October 2013
- 20. GLOBAL HOT SPOTS • Global temperatures at Locations worldwide will exceed historic norms as soon as 2020, … and no later than 2069
- 21. EXAMPLES • 2020 IN MANOKWARI, INDONESIA • 2023 IN KINGSTON, JAMAICA • 2029 IN LAGOS, NIGERIA • 2047 IN WASHINGTON, DC
- 22. IMPACTS • Locations in the tropics will experience the earliest emergence of the new climate norms
- 23. PART 2: WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?
- 24. YOURYOUR COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASESDATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •MONITORING •HAZARD MAPS •INVENTORY •VULNERABILITY •LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK BOOKS OFBOOKS OF KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGE •EDUCATION •PREPAREDNESS •PROTECTION •EARLY WARNING •EM RESPONSE •RECOVERY POLICY TOOLS FORPOLICY TOOLS FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE
- 25. POLICYPOLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION POLICYPOLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION RISK ASSESSMENT • VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY • EXPOSUREEXPOSURE • EVENTEVENT POLICY ASSESSMENT • COSTCOST • BENEFITBENEFIT •CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES BUILDING A CULTURE OFBUILDING A CULTURE OF DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE GLOBALGLOBAL CLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECHANGE NATURALNATURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS GLOBALGLOBAL CLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECHANGE NATURALNATURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS EXPECTEDEXPECTED LOSSLOSS EXPECTEDEXPECTED LOSSLOSS
- 26. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR COPING WITH THE POTENTIAL ADVERSE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IF THE PREDICTIONS ARE RIGHT, WE WILL BE LIVING WITH THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE REST OF OUR LIVES
- 28. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE • GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE WAS ONLY DISCUSSED IN A HYPO- THETICAL WAY FOR MANY YEARS. • If CONSIDERED AS A THREAT, IT WAS A THREAT FOR THE DISTANT FUTURE. • GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IS INCREASINGLY BEING REGARDED AS A FACT, … • WHICH IMPLIES SERIOUS RISKS THAT PRESENT AND FUTURE GEN- ERATIONS ALIKE WILL HAVE TO FACE.
- 29. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION • MITIGATION ADDRESSES THE “FRONT END” OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROBLEM. • IT INCLUDES ACTIONS THAT WILL PREVENT (OR REDUCE) THE RELEASE OF EXCESS CO2 EMMISIONS. • ADAPTATION ADDRESSES THE “BACK END” OF THE PROBLEM. • IT INCLUDES ACTIONS THAT WILL SAFE- GUARD A PERSON, A COMMUNITY, A BUSINESS, OR A NATION AS THEY LIVE WITH THE LIKELY IMPACTS.
- 30. MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • ADAPTATION IS REQUIRED BECAUSE WE CAN NOT TURN OFF THE MOMENTUM OF ADVERSE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN A SHORT TIME. • CARBON DIOXIDE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR DECADES, AND • OCEANS STORE HEAT FOR CENTURIES.
- 31. MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • MANY COUNTRIES ARE NOW MAKING LARGE INVESTMENTS IN MITIGATION AND ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATION ACTIONS. • LEADERS RECOGNIIZE THAT THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE RISKS FOR PEOPLE, BUSINESSES, AND COMMUNITIES LIVING IN OR LOCATED IN COASTAL AREAS OR IN RIVER FLOODPLAINS.
- 32. THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • AFTER 800 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE BATTLING THE NORTH SEA, THE NETHERLANDS HAS NOW CREATED SOME OF THE STRONGEST FLOOD DEFENSES IN THE WORLD. • PRESENT RIVER DEFENSES PROVIDE 1-IN -250 YEARS PROTECTION LEVELS.
- 33. THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • THE OOESTERSCHELDEKERING, A PART OF THE DELTA WORKS DAMS, DEFENDS AGAINST THE NORTH SEA. • THEY ARE NOW BEING MADE STRONGER TO PROVIDE 1-IN-100,000 YEARS PROTECTION INSTEAD OF 1-IN-10,000 YEARS PROTECTION.
- 34. THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • THE DUTCH ARE ALSO REVISING TRADITIONAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT THINKING. • IN ADDITION TO CONTAINING THE FLOOD WATERS, THEY WILL ALLOW CERTAIN DESIGNAGTED LOCATIONS TO BE FLOODED. • THIS STRATEGY IS CALLED, “LIVING WITH WATER.”
- 36. THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • THE NETHERLANDS WILL COMMIT ABOUT $1.3 BILLION ANNUALLY TO INCREASE FLOOD PROTECTION LEVELS. • THIS INVESTMENT IS EQUAL TO ABOUT 0.2 PERCENT OF THE NETHERLAND’S GDP.
- 37. BRITAIN: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • THE BRITISH ARE IMPROVING AND EXTENDING THE “THAMES BARRIER,” A SET OF FLOODGATES ACROSS THE THAMES RIVER. • WHEN THE BARRIER IS CLOSED (ABOUT 10 TIMES A YEAR) IT PROVIDES 1-IN-2,000 YEARS PROTECTION OF LONDON FROM FLOODING CAUSED BY OCEAN SURGES DURING STORMS.
- 38. LONDON, ENGLAND
- 39. THAMES RIVER BARRIER DURING STORM
- 40. BRITAIN: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • THE PREDICTED RISE IN SEA LEVEL BY 2030 IS EXPECTED TO REQUIRE AN INCREASE IN PROTECTION ALONG THE THAMES TO 1-IN-1,000 YEARS. • THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED AND UPGRADED BY 2100.
- 41. TOKYO: ANTICIPATES MORE WATER THAN USUAL IN THE FUTURE
- 42. JAPAN: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • JAPAN IS ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE WATER FROM RISING SEA LEVEL, OCEAN STORM SURGES, TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP, AND EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION FROM TYPHOONS. • ITS 12-YEAR-OLD “G-CANS PROJECT” HAS CREATED A MASSIVE UNDERGROUND CONCRETE “RIVER SYSTEM” IN NORTHWEST TOKYO TO FACILITATE REMOVAL OF EXCESS WATER FROM TOKYO’S STREETS.
- 43. G-CANS: THE WORLD’S LARGEST UNDERGROUND “RIVER” SYSTEM
- 44. JAPAN: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • JAPAN HAS INSTALLED UNDERGROUND PUMPS THAT CAN PUMP 100 TONS OF WATER PER SECOND OUT OF RIVERS AND INTO THE HARBOR TO PREVENT FLOODING OF CTY STREETS. • THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY CONSIDERED TO BE OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY NOW.
- 45. BANGLADESH: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • BANGLADESH, ONE OF THE MOST VULNERABLE PLACES ON EARTH TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, NOW REQUIRES USE OF CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS IN ALL FUTURE PLANNING AND DECISIONS. • IT HAS BEGUN SWITCHING LAND USE FROM RICE FARMING TO PRAWN FARMING IN LOCATIONS WHRE SALT WATER IN THE BAY OF BENGAL IS NOW MOVING INLAND.
- 46. BANGLADESH: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • BUT, BEING ONE OF THE POOREST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD, BANGLADESH CAN NOT AFFORD THE INVESTMENTS REQUIRED FOR ADAPTATION MEASURES NOW UNDERWAY IN MANY INDUSTRALIZED COUNTRIES. • IT NEEDS INTERNATIONAL AID, WHICH IS NOT NOW AS AVAILABLE AS IN THE PAST.
- 47. GREATER NEW ORLEANS, LA: ONLY 300,000 AFTER KATRINA
- 48. NEW ORLEANS: ANTICIPATES HURRICANES EVEN WORSE THAN KATRINA
- 49. UNITED STATES: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • ADAPTATION IS NOW ON THE AMERICAN AGENDA BECAUSE OF HURRICANE KATRINA AND ITS IMPACT ON NEW ORLEANS AND THE GULF COAST. • NEW ORLEANS HAS BECOME A LABORATORY FOR SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, HAZARD INSURANCE, AND PUBLIC POLICY.
- 50. NEW ORLEANS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
- 51. NEW ORLEANS’ LEVEE SYSTEM
- 52. UNITED STATES: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • NEW ORLEANS’ LEVEE SYSTEM ONLY PROVIDES 1-IN-100 YEARS PROTECTION NOW. • 122 LEVEES IN THE SYSTEM ARE NOW CONSIDERED TO BE INADEQUATE FOR THE INCREASED SEVERITY OF WIND FIELDS AND STORM SURGES EXPECTED IN FUTURE HURRICANES.
- 53. UNITED STATES: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • “DEFENSE IN DEPTH,” A THREE- LAYERED SYSTEM, HAS BEEN DEVISED TO PROTECT NEW ORLEANS. • EACH LAYER ACTS LIKE A SPEED BUMP TO ABSORB AND REDUCE THE ENERGY AND DESTRUCTIVE EFFECTS OF THE SEVERE WINDSTORM.
- 54. UNITED STATES: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • “DEFENSE IN DEPTH: • THE INNER LAYER CONSISTS OF HARDENED LEVEES AND FLOOD WALLS. • THE MIDDLE LAYER IS A LARGE EXPANSE OF WETLANDS. • THE THIRD LAYER IS THE BARRIER ISLANDS THAT MUST BE TRAVERSED BEFORE LANDFALL.
Editor's Notes
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