A major earthquake affecting a large city has the potential to be the most catastrophic natural disaster. Earthquakes of sufficient size threaten lives and damage property by setting off a chain of effects that disrupts the natural and human-built environments. Widespread strong ground shaking is a geological effect that can severely damage buildings or cause them to collapse completely. Vibratory earthquake motion, in turn, can induce secondary geological effects such as soil liquefaction, landslides, and related ground failure hazardous to the built environment or can trigger seismic sea waves (tsunamis) that may wreak coastal destruction thousands of miles from the earthquake source. Earthquakes may also result in major nongeological effects (e.g., widespread fires, flooding of populated areas caused by failure of large dams, or release of radioactive materials from damaged nuclear power plants) that could be more catastrophic than the initial effects of the earthquake. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

1. THE GLOBAL DISASTER
LABORATORY MODEL:
AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

2. FRAMEWORK FOR
A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-
DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE ON
GLOBAL DISASTERS
AND DISASTER RESILIENCE

3. 1. SCOPE
FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS
TO A DISASTER
TO
DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES
THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF
“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

4. A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that occur when
the continuums of: 1) people, 2)
community (i.e., a set of habitats,
livelihoods, and social constructs),
and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods,
earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in
space and time, when and where the
people and community are not ready.

5. THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS
1. PEOPLE (7+ Billion and
counting)
2. COMMUNITIES
3. RECURRING EVENTS (AKA
Natural Hazards, which are proof
of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

6. PEOPLE = INNOVATION
200 NATIONS AND 7+
BILLION PEOPLE
NORTH
AMERICA
CARIBBEAN
BASIN
SUB-SAHARA
AFRICA
MEDITER-
RANEAN
ISLAND
NATIONS
ASIA
SOUTH
AMERICA
EUROPE

7. INTERSECTION OF THESE
CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE
SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL
CAUSE A DISASTER,
AND SOME WON’T

8. THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM
• 7 + BILLION
(DISTRIBUTED
THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD)

9. LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM
OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS

10. LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM
HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE

11. FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS
1. IGNORANCE
2. APATHY
3. DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES
4. LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

12. THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM:
(SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)
• GOVERNMENT
• DWELLINGS
• SCHOOLS
• HEALTH CARE
FACILITIES
• BUSINESSES
• INFRA-
STRUCTURE
• ETC.

13. EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE
READY FOR THE INEVITABLE
INTERSECTION THAT WILL
CHALLENGE ITS
STATE-OF-RESILIENCE

14. THE RECURRING - EVENTS
CONTINUUM
• FLOODS
• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• EARTHQUAKES
• DROUGHTS
• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• ETC.

15. RECURRING EARTHQUAKES

16. RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS
TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES

17. RECURRING FLOODS

18. RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES

19. RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

20. CURRENT KNOWLEDGE
IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL,
EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR,
STATISTICAL, FUZZY,
PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND
THEORETICAL MODELS
HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND
UNCERTAINTIES

21. FRAMEWORK 2:
A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-
DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION
OF KNOWLEDGE FOR
THE END GAME OF
DISASTER RESILIENCE
IN THE 21ST CENTURY

22. POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR
DISASTER RESILIENCE
• Anticipatory Preparedness
• Adoption and Implementation of a Modern
Engineering Building Codes & Standards
• Timely Early Warning and Evacuation
• Timely Emergency Response (including
Emergency Medical Services)
• Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction

23. YOUR
COMMUNITYDATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•FLOODS
•SEVERE WIND
STORMS
•EARTHQUAKES
…ETC
A DISASTER
CAUSES
FAILURES IN POLICIES
FAILURES IN PRACTICES
COUNTER MEASURES
• BEST POLICIES
•BEST PRACTICES
DISASTER RESILIENCE

24. EARTHQUAKES

25. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
• MEASURMENT
TECHNOLOGIES (E.G.,
GROUND SHAKING;
STRAIN)
• INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
(E.G., GIS)
• RISK MODELING (E.G.,
HAZUS, INSURANCE
UNDERWRITING)
• DATABASES
• DISASTER
SCENARIOS
• ZONATION OF
POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS AS A TOOL
FOR POLICY
DECISIONS

26. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
DISASTER RESILIENCE
• AUTOMATED
CONSTRUCTION
EQUIPMEMT
• PREFABRICATION
AND
MODULARIZATION
• ADVANCED
MATERIALS (E.G.,
COMPOSITES)
• COMPUTER AIDED
DESIGN
• PERFORMANCE BASED
CODES AND STANDARDS
• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE
ENERGY DISSIPATION
DEVICES (E.G., BASE
ISOLATION)
• REAL-TIME MONITORING
AND WARNING SYSTEMS

28. INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS
USE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE
DISASTER LABORATORIES AS A
BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM “A”
(Emergency Response) TO “Z”
(Recovery and Reconstruction)

29. EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON
1989 LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE
• M7.1
• 63 DEAD
• COLLAPSE AND LOSS
OF FUNCTION OF KEY
TRANSPORTATION
INFRASTRUCTURE
• $ 1 BILLION INSURED
LOSS

30. EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1972
MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE)
• 10,000 DEAD
• 20,000 INJURED
• 300,000 HOMELESS
• NEAR TOTAL
DISRUPTION OF THE
INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION
• LOSS OF CRITICAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
• POLITICAL CHAOS

31. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF
GROUND SHAKING

32. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF
GROUND SHAKING (MEXICO)

33. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF
GROUND SHAKING (EGYPT)

34. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF
GROUND SHAKING (ALGERIA)

35. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF
GROUND SHAKING (TURKEY)

36. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF
GROUND SHAKING (IRAN)

37. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF
GROUND SHAKING (INDIA)

38. PROTECTION
USE FORECASTS OF STRONG GROUND
MOTION TO ENACT CODES AND FIX
PHYSICAL VULNERABILITIES
IN THE COMMUNITY

39. PROTECTION
BASED ON RESEARCH FROM THE
JANUARY 2010 HAITI EARTHQUAKE
• SEISMIC BUILDING
CODES PREVENT
BUILDING
COLLAPSE.

40. PROTECTION (BASED ON JULY
2013 YA’AN CHINA EARTHQUAKE)
• SEISMIC BUILDING
CODES PREVENT
BUILDING
COLLAPSE.

41. PROTECTION
BASED ON 1995 KOBE JAPAN
EARTHQUAKE
• SEISMIC
STANDARDS
PREVENT LOSS
OF FUNCTION
OF CRITICAL
LIFELINE
SYSTEMS.

42. PROTECTION
• URBAN PLANNING
FACILITATES
AVOIDANCE OF
HAZARDOUS
LOCATIONS SUCH
AS FAULT ZONES
FOR CONSTRUCT-
ION SITES

43. PROTECTION (SITE MODIFICATION
Based on 1964 Niigata Earthquake)
• ENGINEERING
TECHNIQUES
(SOIL REMED-
IATION) CAN
PREVENT/REDUCE
LOSSES FROM
LIQUEFACTION

44. EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON
1989 LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE)
• Magnitude 7.1
• 63 DEAD
• FIRE IN MARINA
DISTRICT
• WIDE SPREAD LOSS
OF POWER
• 1 BILLION INSURED
LOSS

45. EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON
1995 KOBE EARTHQUAKE)
• SEARCH AND
RESCUE AFTER
THE 5:46 AM
EARTHQUAKE
HELPED SAVE
3,000 ADULTS
AGE 60 OR OLDER
TRAPPED IN
HOUSES.

46. SEARCH AND RESCUE (BASED ON 1988
SPITAK, ARMENIA EARTHQUAKE)
• INTERNATIONAL
ASSISTANCE FROM
MORE THAN 50
CONTRIES
FACILITATED
SEARCH AND
RESCUE
OPERATIONS

48. EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON
1971 SAN FERNANDO, CA EARTHQUAKE)
• LOWERING THE
WATER LEVEL
IMMEDIATELY
AFTER THE
EARTHQUAKE
PREVENTED
FLOODING OF LOS
ANGELES.

49. EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON
1999 KOCALEI, TURKEY EARTHQUAKE)
• MASS CARE
PROVIDED A
SAFETY NET FOR
THE HOMELESS
DURING THE
EMERGENCY
RESPONSE AND
EARLY RECOVERY
PERIODS.

50. EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON
1999 KOCAELI, TURKEY, EARTHQUAKE)
• A “TENT CITY”
PROVIDED
TEMPORARY
SHELTER FOR THE
HOMELESS
DURING THE
EMERGENCY
RESPONSE EARLY
RECOVERY PERIOD

52. RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION:
(BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE)
• 88,000 DEAD
• 30,000 INJURED
• 300,000 HOMELESS
• 25 MILLION
BUILDINGS DAMAGED
• 45 MILLION PEOPLE
AFFECTED

53. EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE IS A
TOOL FOR RECOVERY
• EARTHQUAKE
INSURANCE
SPREADS THE
RISK AND SPEEDS
RECOVERY (I.E.,
“RESTORATION TO
NORMAL”)

54. INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE SPEEDS
RECOVERY (2010 HAITI EARTHQUAKE)
• OVER $ 1 BILLION
DOLLARS WAS
DONATED IN A
FEW WEEKS TO
HELP HAITIANS
SPEED
RESTORATION OF
SERVICES TO
NORMAL.

55. RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION:
(BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE)
• SCHOOLS ARE
“SAFE HAVENS” SO
ANY NEEDING TO BE
REBUILT MUST BE
REBUILT TO A
HIGHER STANDARD
DURING THE
RECONSTRUCTION
PERIOD.

56. RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION:
(BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE)
• SCHOOLS ARE
“SAFE HAVENS” SO
ANY NEEDING TO BE
REBUILT MUST BE
REBUILT TO A
HIGHER STANDARD
DURING THE
RECONSTRUCTION
PERIOD.

57. THE END GAME CHALLENGE
BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES
INNOVATIVE ACTIONS:
CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN
PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL
YOU HAVE CREATED THE PARA-DIGM
SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED FOR MOVING
TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE

58. BEST POLICIES
AND BEST PRACTICES
WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE
KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS,
AND
IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE
PEOPLE/COMMUNITY
CONTINUUMS

59. BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES WILL
CALL FOR INNOVATIVE
USE OF TECHNOLOGY
AND STRATEGIC
PLANNING

60. THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL
INCREASE EXPONENTIALLY AS ---
a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is
increased,
b) Physical and organizational
VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY
are eliminated, and
c) Each people-community-hazard
INTERSECTION is met successfully.