The document discusses a decision support system (DSS) called EnRiMa that was developed for operators of energy-efficient buildings. The DSS uses a strategic model to make long-term decisions about technology installations and a linked operational model to determine short-term energy dispatching. The model accounts for uncertainty through a scenario tree and stochastic optimization. An example application to a building evaluating photovoltaic and combined heat and power technologies under different demand scenarios is presented.

1. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 1/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Strategic Energy Systems Planning
under Uncertainty
Emilio L. Cano1
Javier M. Moguerza1
1Department of Statistics and Operations Research
University Rey Juan Carlos, Spain
Oviedo, 25 de febrero de 2013
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

2. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 2/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Outline
1 Introduction
EnRiMa Project
EnRiMa DSS
2 Strategic Model
Model Description
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

3. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 3/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
EnRiMa Project
EnRiMa DSS
Introduction
The overall objective of EnRiMa is to develop a
decision-support system (DSS) for operators of
energy-efficient buildings and spaces of public
use.
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

4. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 4/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
EnRiMa Project
EnRiMa DSS
EnRiMa DSS
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

5. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 5/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
EnRiMa Project
EnRiMa DSS
DSS Architecture
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

6. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 6/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
EnRiMa Project
EnRiMa DSS
Scheme of the Models
EnRiMaDSS
Strategic
Module
Operational
Module
StrategicDVs
Strategic
Constraints
Upper-Level
Operational DVs
Upper-Level
Energy-Balance
Constraints
Lower-Level
Energy-Balance
Constraints
Lower-Level
Operational DVs
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

7. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 7/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Model Description
Summary
Strategic Model
EnRiMaDSS
Strategic
Module
Operational
Module
StrategicDVs
Strategic
Constraints
Upper-Level
Operational DVs
Upper-Level
Energy-Balance
Constraints
Lower-Level
Energy-Balance
Constraints
Lower-Level
Operational DVs
The strategic model is used in order to make
strategic decisions concerning which technologies to
install and/or de- commission in the long term. It
includes a simplified version of operational
energy-balance constraints.
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

8. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 8/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Model Description
Summary
Embedded Operational Model
EnRiMaDSS
Strategic
Module
Operational
Module
StrategicDVs
Strategic
Constraints
Upper-Level
Operational DVs
Upper-Level
Energy-Balance
Constraints
Lower-Level
Energy-Balance
Constraints
Lower-Level
Operational DVs
The model includes the realisation of short-term
decisions (t) that are scaled to a long-term period
(p) through a representative profile (m).
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

9. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 9/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Model Description
Summary
Symbolic Model Specification
Strategic Decisions
xv,a
i = xv ,a−1
i − xdv,a
i
xcv
i = Gi ·
a∈AAges(i,v)
AGa
i · xv,a
i
n∈NPur(k)
hv
k,n = 1
. . .
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

10. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 10/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Model Description
Summary
Symbolic Model Specification (cont.)
Operational Decisions
i∈IGen
zv,m,t
i,k −
i∈IGen
yv,m,t
i,k +
n∈NPur(k)
uv,m,t
k,n −
n∈NS(k)
wv,m,t
k,n
+
i∈ISto
rov,m,t
i,k − riv,m,t
i,k = Dv,m,t
k · 1 −
i∈IPU
ODv
i,k · xcv
i
. . .
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

11. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 11/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Model Description
Summary
Symbolic Model Specification (cont.)
Strategic & Operational link
zv,m,t
i,k ≤ DTm
· AFv,m,t
i · xcv
i
OAv
i,k · xcv
i ≤ rv,m,t
i,k ≤ OBv
i,k · xcv
i
uv,m,t
k,n ≤ hv
k,n · MEk,n · DTm
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

12. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 12/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Model Description
Summary
Energy-dispatching Decision Flow
Market
Demand
Purchases
Fictitious
Generation
Technologies
Storage
Technologies
N
K
J
I
Sales
K y
u
u
u
w
u
w
z
qi
qo
qi
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

13. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 13/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Model Description
Summary
Objective
minimize
v∈V
(1 + DR)PTv
· PRv
·


i∈I

 (CI v
i − SU v
i ) · Gi · xiv
i +
a∈AAges(i,v)
CDv,a
i · Gi · xdv,a
i
+
a∈AAges(i,v)
CM v,a
i · Gi · xv,a
i


+
m∈M
DM m
·
t∈TTm(m,t)


n∈NPur(k,n)
PPv,m,t
k,n · uv,m,t
k,n −
n∈NS(k,n)
SPv,m,t
k,n · wv,m,t
k,n
+
i∈IGen ,k∈KOut(i,k)
COv
i,k · zv,m,t
i,k +
i∈ISto ,k∈KPo(i,k)
COv
i,k · rv,m,t
i,k




Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

14. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 14/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Model Description
Summary
Scenario Tree
2
1
3 4 6
8 9 10 12
PT1
= 0 PT2
= 1 PT3
= 2 PT4
= 3 PT5
= PT6
= PT7
= 4
PT8
= 1 PT9
= 2 PT10
= 3 PT11
= PT12
= PT13
= 4
PR1
= 1
0 < PR2
= PR3
= PR4
< 1
PR5
PR12
5
7
11
13
PR6
PR7
0 < PR8
= PR9
= PR10
< 1
PR11
PR13
First Stage Second Stage Third Stage
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

15. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 15/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Model Description
Summary
Illustrative Example
In “Energy efficiency and risk management in public buildings: Strategic model for
robus planning”. Cano, Moguerza, Ermolieva, Ermoliev. Under revision.
Main facts
Two-stage problem.
Decision time horizon: 5 years.
Only electricity demand, one supplier and two
possible technologies: PV and CHP.
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

16. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 16/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Model Description
Summary
Illustrative Example (cont.)
Optimisation Result − Strategic Decisions
Technology by Year
Capacitytobeinstalled
10
20
30
40
50
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CHP
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
PV
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
RTE
Optimisation Result − Operational Decisions
Year
Operationlevel
50
100
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
RTE
PV
Total Cost
65,212.56 EUR
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

17. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 17/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Model Description
Summary
Illustrative Example (cont.)
Scenarios
invCHP invPV operRTE operNG Demand Probability
s1 -0.10 -0.05 0.10 0.03 0.10 0.20
s2 -0.15 -0.10 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.20
s3 -0.15 -0.08 0.12 0.03 0.10 0.20
s4 -0.10 -0.05 0.06 0.03 0.05 0.20
s5 -0.15 -0.08 0.12 0.05 0.10 0.20
Model Cost (EUR)
Deterministic Scenario 1 65,212.56
Stochastic 62,668.65
Stochastic | sol1 62,709.36
Deterministic av. val 62,124.39
Stochastic | sol2 Infeasible
Value of Stochastic Solution: 40.72.
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

18. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 18/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Model Description
Summary
Demo GUI prototype
http://enrima.dsv.su.se/
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

19. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 19/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Model Description
Summary
Summary
DSS for building operators. Integrated
modules: solver manager, scenario generator,
user iterface.
Strategic and operational decisions. Interacting
with each other.
Stochastic Optimization as a tool to deal with
uncertainty and manage risk.
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

20. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 20/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Model Description
Summary
Acknowledgements
This work has been partially funded by the projects:
Energy Efficiency and Risk Management in Public Buildings (EnRiMa) EC’s FP7
project (number 260041)
OPTIMOS3 (MTM2012-36163-C06-06)
RIESGOS-CM (code S2009/ESP-1685)
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

21. Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 21/21
Introduction
Strategic Model
Model Description
Summary
Discussion
Thanks for your attention !
emilio.lopez@urjc.es
http://www.enrima-project.eu
Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty