This presentation on Green Jobs for Green Growth in Asia and the Pacific was delivered at a meeting of UN agencies in Bangkok, Thailand in October 2009.

1. “One UN” Training
Green Jobs for Green Growth in Asia and the Pacific
Bangkok, 27 to 30 October 2009

2. Carina Bachofen and Edward Cameron
cbachofen@worldbank.org / ecameron@worldbank.org

3. The Social Dimensions of Climate (SDCC)
at the World Bank
๏ Social justice as an over-arching theme
๏ Governance and social accountability in climate action
๏ Equity, rights and livelihood security in climate change mitigation and adaptation
๏ Learning Module and Micro-documentary film contest
๏ Rights, forests and climate change
๏ Local institutions, area-based development and climate change
๏ Emerging work on Indigenous Peoples, gender, conflict and the urban poor
Our Goal:
Socially inclusive, climate-resilient policies & operations in client countries
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4. Our starting point
1. Climate change impacts growth in Asia and the Pacific
2. Climate change policy could have long term implications for growth in Asia and the Pacific
3. Responding to the threats and opportunities of climate change alters the context for our work
and our institutions
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5. Our starting point
๏ The changing nature of climate change
๏ A climate of crises
๏ “We do not intend to waste these crises”
the social dimensions of climate change learning module
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6. Our Goals:
1. Enhance understanding of vulnerability and
resilience
2. Build the capacity of participants to work with
climate change
3. Propose principles of equity and governance
that can improve the practice of climate change
interventions
4. Outline a number of methods and tools that can
be used as operational entry points
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7. Four Part Training
1. What are the social dimensions of climate change?
2. First principles: understanding vulnerability and resilience
3. Pro-poor climate policy: from vulnerability to resilience through sustainable development
4. Methodologies and toolkits: operationalizing the social dimensions of climate change
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8. What are the social dimensions of climate change?
Part 1 Why is this perspective important for Asia and the Pacific?
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10. What are the social dimensions of climate change?
Reconciling socio-ecological systems
The complex social responses resulting from climate change
The implications of climate change architecture, policy and interventions
Building new communities of practice
Breaking down disciplinary path dependency
Altering process, policies, and interventions
Shaping substantive outcomes for vulnerable populations
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11. IPCC projected natural impacts
Temperature rises, extreme weather events, changes in hydrological cycles, sea level rise, threats to
unique systems and biodiversity, increase in flooding and storm surges
complex social responses
Loss of livelihoods; health/fatalities; food/water insecurity; migration; conflict; damage to infrastructure;
decline in natural systems services; distribution of impacts
equity
Process and substantive outcomes for vulnerable populations
human rights and other implications
Adequate standard of living; minimum means of subsistence; health; food; water; self-determination;
property; culture; life; education; gender, indigenous and children

12. Critical in shaping global policy architecture and responses; instruments and application at the
local level; addresses inequalities; reduces vulnerabilities; builds resilience
Improved outcomes, adaptive capacity and resilience
Technological; knowledge; political; various types of assets (social, physical, natural, financial,
human, cultural capital)
Enhanced capital and resources
Implementation of governance principles across governance scales leads to enhanced capital and
resources
Improved governance
Key to authoritative advocacy for vulnerable populations; providing access to processes;
influencing the nature of processes; vital for building constituencies and securing agreement
Change analysis and diagnosis

13. Part 2 first principles: understanding vulnerability and resilience
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14. Vulnerability according to the IPCC:
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation
in which a system is exposed, it's sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007a, p21)
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15. Exposure - the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to
which a system is subjected, such as:
๏ Risks to unique and threatened systems (coral)
๏ Extreme weather events (storm surges and sea swells)
๏ Reduced agricultural productivity
๏ Increased water insecurity
๏ Increased health risk
๏ Large-scale singularities
๏ Aggregate impacts (impacts worsen over time)
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16. Exposure in ASIA
“The human drama of climate change will largely be played out in Asia,
where 60% of the world’s population lives - over half near the coast -
making them directly vulnerable to sea level rise” (New Economics
Foundation 2007).
๏ A 1m rise in sea level would inundate coastal cities and communities
throughout Asia. In 2007 almost 20 million people were displaced as
devastating floods hit northern India, Bangladesh and Nepal, affecting
food, clean drinking water and medical supplies.
Text
๏ Freshwater availability, particularly in large river basins, is projected to
decrease. This, along with population growth and increasing demand
arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect more
than a billion people by the 2050s (IPCC 2007, p13).
๏ Recent studies suggest that South Asia could experience losses of up
to 10 percent of many of its local staples including rice by 2030. Fears
over the supply and cost of rice led to food riots and export bans in a
number of South Asian countries in 2007 and 2008.
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17. Six Climate Threats: Top Twelve Countries Most at Risk
Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture
Malawi Bangladesh Philippines All Low lying All Low lying Sudan
Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal
Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe
India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali
Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia
Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco
Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger
Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India
Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi
Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria
Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia
Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan
Low income Middle income High income
Source: World Bank 2008
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18. Sensitivity - Intersecting inequalities - produce different experiences of climate
change impacts, such as:
๏ Access to information, decision making
and justice
๏ Dependence on the environment for
livelihoods, food, fuel, shelter and
medicine
๏ Geographical context
๏ Financial / socio-economic status
๏ Governance / political economy issues
๏ Gender, age, abilities
๏ Indigenous Peoples
๏ Cultural norms
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19. Adaptation - “Refers to changes in processes, practices, or structures to moderate or
offset potential damages or to take advantage of opportunities associated with changes in
climate. It involves adjustments to reduce the vulnerability of communities, regions, or
activities to climatic change and variability” (IPCC 2001).
Adaptive Capacity - The capacity to mobilize resources to build resilience
๏ Various types of assets (social, physical, natural, financial, human, cultural capital)
๏ Technological
๏ Knowledge
๏ Governance
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20. Case Study 1: The Maldives
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21. Case Study 2: Mongolia
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22. Case Study 3: Bangladesh
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23. Each participant in the group takes ten minutes to read
Country Case Studies: one case study from The Maldives, Mongolia and
Bangladesh.
When you have finished reading the case studies,
present the case to your colleagues, explaining why your
chosen country is vulnerable.
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24. Resilience
Resilience occurs where adaptive capacity is
strong, inequalities are addressed, and exposure
minimized. It reflects the ability to deal with
change and continue to develop.
Just as vulnerable communities are threatened with collapse from climate impacts, a resilient
community can anticipate and plan for a sustainable future.
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25. pro-poor climate policy: from vulnerability to resilience through
Part 3 sustainable development
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26. Possible Effects of Climate Change Policy:
CO-BENEFITS NEGATIVE SOCIAL IMPACTS
EQUITY INEQUITY
RESILIENCE VULNERABILITY
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27. Climate policy building blocks
๏ Mitigation
๏ Reduced Emissions from
Deforestation and Degradation
(REDD)
๏ Adaptation
๏ Technology
๏ Finance
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28. Mitigation
๏ Sources
๏ Sinks / Reservoirs
๏ Sequestration
๏ Substitutes
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29. Renewable Energy: Co-benefits
๏ GHG Reductions
๏ Economic returns for those who innovate
๏ Employment and local development
๏ Increased security of supply
๏ Reduced emissions of other pollutants and
health benefits
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30. Biofuels: Negative Social Impacts
๏ Questionable GHG reductions potential
๏ Deforestation
๏ Land acquisition and displacement
๏ Impact on food (production, access, prices)
๏ Political instability, corruption and violence
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31. REDD Agenda ISSUES / ETHICS
Reducing Emissions from Degradation and Deforestation
๏ Deforestation is responsible for at least 25%-30% of
anthropogenic climate change each year
๏ Forests help to slow climate change by acting as a sink / reservoir
for GHG emissions
๏ Assign a price for carbon to cover environmental services and
create incentives for forest conservation and management
๏ Effective forest governance is key to success but remains elusive
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32. Adaptation
๏ Planned versus
autonomous adaptation
๏ First Generation
๏ Second Generation
๏ Third Generation (?)
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33. What Adaptation Strategy?
Case 1: Engineering - protecting the land or the person?
๏ Protects vital infrastructure ๏ Deals with exposure but what about
sensitivity?
๏ Protects vital utilities
๏ May not target the most vulnerable
๏ Coastal zone management
๏ May not address key system impacts
๏ Seawalls, flood defences, etc.. (ecological and social)
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34. Technology
๏ Research and innovation
๏ Investment and political will
๏ Development and deployment
๏ Access and supporting structures
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35. Finance
๏ How much is required?
๏ New and additional?
๏ How to generate funding?
๏ How to disburse / target funding?
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36. Potential Sources of Climate Finance:
Equitable, efficient and effective?
Current estimates put the cost of dealing with climate
change at between $4bn and $109bn per year
(low end from Stern 2006 / high end from UNDP 2007)
CDM and Carbon Offset Markets
Auctioning of Emissions Rights
Emissions Cap and Trade
Tax on Financial Transactions (Tobin Tax)
GHG Levy
Aviation / Shipping tax
General taxes and specific funds
Carbon Taxes
GDP Contribution (0.5% - 1% by developed countries)
Baseline ODA (up to 0.7% of GNP)
Source: How will the world finance climate change action? World Bank presentation to the
Bali Brunch, April 2009
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37. Equity
Vulnerable and marginalized communities are typically least responsible for the cause and
least able to deal with the consequences of climate change.
“These groups, by lacking a voice and influence in climate change policy making, are
unlikely to account for their particular experience. This is likely to exacerbate their position
of marginalization or vulnerability further” (Pollack, 2008, p17).
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38. Unequal responsibilities
% GHG Emissions in 2000
Only 17 countries account for 1% or more of
global greenhouse gas emissions
Together, these 17 countries are responsible for
more than 85% of global emissions
And yet few of these are amongst those most
vulnerable to climate change
Source: Data taken from the Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT) developed by the World Resources Institute (WRI). Aggregates from IEA and others.
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39. Unequal consequences
Climate related disasters
Some 262 million people were affected
by climate disasters annually from
2000 to 2004.
In the OECD, one person in every
fifteen hundred was affected by
climate disaster (1:1500)
% of people affected by In the developing world the number
climate disasters 2000 - 2004 was one in nineteen (1:19)
Developing World
OECD
A risk differential of 79!
Source: UNDP Human Development Report 2007 / 2008
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40. Equity
The practical application of equity may help to resolve a number of long-standing climate
change issues including:
๏ Power and participation
๏ Determining entitlements and access:
๏ Allocating and meeting responsibilities
๏ Mobilizing and building capacities
๏ Prioritizing needs
๏ Striking a balance across space and time
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41. Global:
UNFCC, Kyoto, Bali Roadmap
Regional:
EU and other initiatives
National:
Policies at the state level
Local / Sub-national:
Initiatives at provincial, community and household level
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42. Rationalize energy, water and agricultural price, tax
Incentives incentives, fiscal and expenditure policies
Efficiency standards; codes, zoning, climate
Regulations screening / proofing of investments
Capacity of public, private and financial sector
Institutions institutions to assess and act on climate risks and
new business opportunities
Improve investment climate; deepen financial and
Markets capital markets; new markets (cap & trade, CDM,
etc...)
Education, raising awareness and promoting
Public Outreach change in consumer behavior and preferences,
public diplomacy
Source: How will the world finance climate change action? World Bank presentation to the Bali Brunch, April 2009
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43. Each participant in the group takes ten minutes to read
Thematic Case Studies: one case study on Equity and Governance.
How do the principles of equity and governance
influence your work? What can we do as a UN family to
mainstream these principles in climate change
interventions?
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44. Methods and tools: operationalizing the social dimensions of
Part 4 climate change.
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45. What methodologies enhance our understanding of vulnerability
and shape our responses to it?
Analytical Frameworks
A range of analytical frameworks can enhance our
understanding of vulnerability. Most emphasize the role of
assets as a buffer against vulnerability and the mediating role
of institutions.
They include:
๏ Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF)
๏ Social Risk Management Framework (SRM)
๏ Territorial Development (TD) and Local Institutions
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46. Frameworks 101 ๏ Vulnerability context influences availability of assets
๏ Access to assets determines level of resilience and adaptive
capacity
๏ Institutions determine access to and returns from assets
Vulnerability
Fi
Scales
na
• Exposure to ial nc
S oc ial
Risk Institutions
• Sensitivity to ASSETS Inclusive Governance Livelihood
Phy
an
Risk protection
Stakeholders
Hum
sica
and
poverty
• Adaptive
l
reduction
Capacity Natural Processes
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47. Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF)
๏ Vulnerability Context
๏ Livelihood Assets
๏ Transforming Structures and
Processes
๏ Livelihood Strategies
๏ Livelihood Outcomes
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48. Social Risk Management Framework (SRM)
๏ Aims to increase capacity of society to manage
climate risks and increase opportunities for
sustainable development
๏ Framework applied to identify no-regrets options
๏ Policy menu should balance ex-ante risk
prevention, exposure reduction and support for
ex-post coping
๏ Interventions can take place at different stages,
levels of governance and levels of formality
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49. Territorial Development
๏ Territorial vision: socio-political area with shared identity
๏ Focus on micro- and meso-linkages across sectors and spatial dimensions of
different assets and endowments
๏ Considers endogenous territorial assets to identify a territory’s comparative
advantages and relevant development strategy
๏ Holistic - integrates sectoral policies at territorial scale, promotes economic
and institutional transformation, and strengthened linkages within a territory
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50. Which toolkits enhance our understanding of vulnerability and
shape our responses to it?
Rethinking existing instruments - developing new tools
With climate change altering the context for development, the
need for new and innovative methodologies and tools is
becoming increasingly apparent.
The World Bank is adapting existing instruments, developing new
toolkits, and monitoring emerging approaches for
operationalizing the social dimensions of climate change.
These include:
๏ Participatory Scenario Development (PSD)
๏ Preventative Resettlement Toolkit
๏ Human Rights Based Approach
๏ Gender-Based Toolkit
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51. Each participant in the group takes ten minutes to read
Thematic Case Studies: one the case study on Methodologies.
Which of these methodologies would be most useful in
your work? Are there alternatives?
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52. The Social Dimensions of Climate Change
Concluding thoughts and further resources
Climate change impacts are already altering the context for development.
Policy responses across scales of governance further alter the context for
development. Are we ready for those changes?
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53. MOVING FROM PRINCIPLES TO PRACTICE (1)
๏ Change the diagnosis
๏ Mobilize new constituencies and
communities of practice
๏ Enhance understanding of vulnerability
๏ Recognize the importance of building
equity into policy
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54. MOVING FROM PRINCIPLES TO PRACTICE (2)
๏ Increase resilience and co-benefits
with sustainable development through
climate interventions
๏ Improve governance and better policy
will follow
๏ A variety of new and existing tools can
aid this process
๏ Learn the lessons from case studies
drawn from different experiences
across the globe
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55. END Further information and learning resources
equity
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56. Climate Change at the World Bank
Strategic Framework For Development and Climate Change and
Development
๏ Support to climate actions in country-led development
processes;
๏ Mobilization of concessional and innovative finance;
๏ The development of innovative market mechanisms to
leverage private sector resources;
๏ Acceleration of the development and deployment of new
technologies;
๏ Enhanced policy research, knowledge, and capacity
building.
equity
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57. Climate Change at the World Bank (2/3)
The new Climate Investments Funds (CIF), with donor pledges
of more than US$ 6 billion includes:
๏ A Clean Technology Fund to facilitate demonstration, deployment,
and transfer of low-carbon technologies
๏ A Strategic Climate Fund, which focuses on vulnerable nations, tries
to maximize co-benefits of sustainable development, and features a
pilot program for enhancing climate resilience.
equity
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58. Social Development at the World Bank
The Social Development Department aims to empower poor and marginalized women and
men through a process of transforming institutions for greater inclusion, cohesion and
accountability.
Thematic focus includes:
๏ Social Policy Analysis
๏ Local Governance and Community Driven Development
๏ Conflict, Crime and Violence
๏ Indigenous Peoples and Involuntary Resettlement
๏ The Social Dimensions of Climate Change
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59. visit our website: www.worldbank.org/sdcc
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60. “I am confident that the innovative global agenda that
this workshop has launched will lead to a holistic
analysis of climate change impacts on human and
social systems, increase our understanding of
vulnerability, and strengthen our capacity to build
social justice, accountability and equity into climate
policy”.
Katherine Sierra
Vice President, Sustainable Development Network
The World Bank
Further Reading: SDCC Workshop Summary Report (World Bank, 2009)
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61. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
The Economics of Climate Change (Stern Review), 2006
United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Human
Development Report (HDR), 2007
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA), 2005
World Bank Group Strategic Framework For Development
and Climate Change (SFDCC), 2008
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62. Adger, N (2006) Vulnerability
The challenges for vulnerability research are to incorporate diverse methods that include
perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the
mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience.
Burton, I et al (2002) From Impacts Assessment to Adaptation Priorities: the
Shaping of Adaptation Policy
The emphasis shifts from the question of gross and net impacts to questions of vulnerability,
and how and where to deploy adaptation responses.
Brooks, N (2003) Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual framework
Adaptation by a system may be inhibited by process originating outside the system; it is
therefore important to consider “external” obstacles to adaptation, and links across scales,
when assessing adaptive capacity.
Turner, B et al (2003) A framework for vulnerability analysis in
sustainability science
Changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere raise questions such as:
Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where?
McGray, H et al (2007) Weathering the Storm: Options for framing
adaptation and development
Any effective development planning process will need to take climate change into account—
and, more particularly, will need to facilitate adaptation to the effects of climate change.
O’Brien, K et al (2004) What’s in a word? Conflicting interpretations of
vulnerability in climate change research
Different interpretations of vulnerability have major implications for how the issue of climate
change is addressed by policy makers, leads to different diagnoses of the climate change
problem, and also to different kinds of cures.
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63. Thank you for your attention!
www.worldbank.org/sdcc