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Modeling alternative forest management scenarios across landscapes in the Pacific Northwest Matthew Goslin Mike Mertens Ecotrust -- Portland, OR The Forestry 2100 project
Broad Question ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Two Scenarios:  Current “Business as Usual” versus Alternative ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Forestry 2100 Pilot  Study Area
Forest Land Ownership 250,000 ac 162,000 ac 706,000 ac 513,000 ac
Analytical Approach Map  current vegetation Model development of individual plots Harvest Scheduler / Landscape Model Growth & Yield Model Most Similar Neighbor Imputation Projected harvest and standing volumes, age classes and forest structure  across landscape by scenario Forest Inventory Sample Plots Compare scenarios
Sample Plot Distribution from  USFS Forest Inventory Analysis Program
[object Object],Describing Current Conditions  Most Similar Neighbor  Imputation Satellite imagery (Landsat TM 2001) Elevation / Aspect Forest Inventory Sample Plots Climate data (PRISM) Delineate stand polygons from imagery Plot characteristics (species basal area, mean diameter, volume) Mean values for plot locations Mean values for stand polygons
Imputed Stand Ages from MSN classification
Imputed vs. Observed Species Distribution:  Sitka Spruce
Imputed vs. Observed Species Distribution:  Noble Fir
Imputed vs. Observed Species Distribution:  Bigleaf Maple
Projecting Future Conditions – Plot / Stand: Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) Harvest Scheduler / Landscape Model Growth & Yield Model Projected harvest and standing volumes, age classes and forest structure  across landscape by scenario Tree growth Tree regeneration Forest Inventory Sample Plots Tree mortality Natural Processes Management Prescriptions Timing of Harvests Retention at Harvest Planting
Sample Stand Development Modeled by FVS:   Basal Area, Tree Density and Mean Diameter Sample stand 11512: High density, high site index  Douglas-fir dominated stand  5 years old at beginning of simulation
State of Oregon Lands:  Current Practices and Prescriptions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
State of Oregon Lands:  Alternative Prescriptions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Private Industrial Lands:  Current Practices and Prescriptions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Private Industrial Lands:  Alternative Prescriptions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Modeled Sample Stand 11512: Private Industrial – “Business as Usual” Prescription Basal area by species Standing and harvested volume
Modeled Sample Stand 11512: Private Industrial – Alternative Prescription 1 (85% of area) Basal area by species Standing and harvested volume
Modeled Sample Stand 11512: Private Industrial – Alternative Prescription 2 (15% of area) Basal area by species Standing and harvested volume
US Forest Service Lands:  Current Practices and Prescriptions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
US Forest Service Lands:  Alternative Prescriptions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Projecting Future Conditions – Landscape Harvest Scheduler / Landscape Model Growth & Yield Model Projected harvest and standing volumes, age classes and forest structure  across landscape by scenario Even flow objective Adjacency constraints Overlay landscape with ownership bounds and management intent (GIS) Allocate prescriptions  to stands Forest Inventory Sample Plots
Even-flow Harvest Scheduling ,[object Object],[object Object]
State Land:  Annual Harvest Volumes
State Land:  Standing Volume and Average Stand Age
Private Industrial Land:  Annual Harvest Volumes
Private Industrial:  Standing Volume and Average Stand Age
Federal Land:  Annual Harvest Volumes
Federal Land:  Standing Volume and Average Stand Age
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Project status and where are we going from here? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Acknowledgements ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Modeling alternative forest management scenarios across landscapes in the Pacific Northwest

  • 1. Modeling alternative forest management scenarios across landscapes in the Pacific Northwest Matthew Goslin Mike Mertens Ecotrust -- Portland, OR The Forestry 2100 project
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Forestry 2100 Pilot Study Area
  • 5. Forest Land Ownership 250,000 ac 162,000 ac 706,000 ac 513,000 ac
  • 6. Analytical Approach Map current vegetation Model development of individual plots Harvest Scheduler / Landscape Model Growth & Yield Model Most Similar Neighbor Imputation Projected harvest and standing volumes, age classes and forest structure across landscape by scenario Forest Inventory Sample Plots Compare scenarios
  • 7. Sample Plot Distribution from USFS Forest Inventory Analysis Program
  • 8.
  • 9. Imputed Stand Ages from MSN classification
  • 10. Imputed vs. Observed Species Distribution: Sitka Spruce
  • 11. Imputed vs. Observed Species Distribution: Noble Fir
  • 12. Imputed vs. Observed Species Distribution: Bigleaf Maple
  • 13. Projecting Future Conditions – Plot / Stand: Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) Harvest Scheduler / Landscape Model Growth & Yield Model Projected harvest and standing volumes, age classes and forest structure across landscape by scenario Tree growth Tree regeneration Forest Inventory Sample Plots Tree mortality Natural Processes Management Prescriptions Timing of Harvests Retention at Harvest Planting
  • 14. Sample Stand Development Modeled by FVS: Basal Area, Tree Density and Mean Diameter Sample stand 11512: High density, high site index Douglas-fir dominated stand 5 years old at beginning of simulation
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. Modeled Sample Stand 11512: Private Industrial – “Business as Usual” Prescription Basal area by species Standing and harvested volume
  • 20. Modeled Sample Stand 11512: Private Industrial – Alternative Prescription 1 (85% of area) Basal area by species Standing and harvested volume
  • 21. Modeled Sample Stand 11512: Private Industrial – Alternative Prescription 2 (15% of area) Basal area by species Standing and harvested volume
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24. Projecting Future Conditions – Landscape Harvest Scheduler / Landscape Model Growth & Yield Model Projected harvest and standing volumes, age classes and forest structure across landscape by scenario Even flow objective Adjacency constraints Overlay landscape with ownership bounds and management intent (GIS) Allocate prescriptions to stands Forest Inventory Sample Plots
  • 25.
  • 26. State Land: Annual Harvest Volumes
  • 27. State Land: Standing Volume and Average Stand Age
  • 28. Private Industrial Land: Annual Harvest Volumes
  • 29. Private Industrial: Standing Volume and Average Stand Age
  • 30. Federal Land: Annual Harvest Volumes
  • 31. Federal Land: Standing Volume and Average Stand Age
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.