China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB), is already internationalised: it ranks fourth globally by value of payments, behind only the US dollar, the euro and the British pound. The size of China’s economy and its dominant position in international trade mean that its use in transactions is already commonplace. Yet it is still not comparable to the four major denominations (including the Japanese yen) as an investment currency—i.e. one that is freely usable and enjoys the full confidence of international investors and the companies that service them. Without their support, the RMB cannot reach full maturity.
Until recently it seemed inevitable that China would take the steps necessary to win their confidence and that the RMB would soon join this elite band of global investment currencies. Yet the events of the summer of 2015, during which China’s authorities sought unsuccessfully to prop up a collapsing stock market and also suddenly devalued the RMB’s exchange rate anchor (ostensibly to take market forces more into account), raised questions about the country’s commitment to liberalising its capital markets. Doubts were reinforced by successive data points that suggested its economy was slowing far more rapidly than expected.
Looking beyond recent short-term volatility, the research asks about perceived demand for international usage of the RMB, what reforms are most urgently required, and what steps global financial services companies must take to prepare for a world in which the RMB vies with the US dollar.
The EIU also conducted in-depth interviews with a range of market participants and experts for this report, globally and in China, including with senior officials from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank.
26. Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of
this information, neither The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd.
nor the sponsor of this report can accept any responsibility or
liability for reliance by any person on this report or any of the
information, opinions or conclusions set out in the report.
封面设计 - Wai Lam
27. London
20 Cabot Square
London
E14 4QW
United Kingdom
Tel: (44.20) 7576 8000
Fax: (44.20) 7576 8476
E-mail: london@eiu.com
New York
750 Third Avenue
5th Floor
New York, NY 10017
United States
Tel: (1.212) 554 0600
Fax: (1.212) 586 0248
E-mail: newyork@eiu.com
Hong Kong
1301 Cityplaza Four
12 Taikoo Wan Road
Taikoo Shing
Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 2585 3888
Fax: (852) 2802 7638
E-mail: hongkong@eiu.com
Geneva
Boulevard des
Tranchées 16
1206 Geneva
Switzerland
Tel: (41) 22 566 2470
Fax: (41) 22 346 93 47
E-mail: geneva@eiu.com