Eco Mag No 1 | Future Scenarios

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EcoLabs No.1 - Summer 2009
C E
Future Scenarios
Sustainabilty Range

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EcoLabs EcoLabs is a network of designers and visual artists addressing systemic
EcoMags N°.1 environmental and social problems. We aim to nurture whole systems thinking
June 2009 and help create an alternative cultural vision that will drive transformational change
London, UK to meet the goals of a fully sustainable society. We create material, projects and
programmes that work to integrate design and art with science, education and other
disciplines.
Editor & art director Our social, economic and ecological systems will become increasingly stressed
Jody Boehnert until we develop a deeper more integrated understanding of the fundamental
importance of ecological systems. Ecological literacy implies a change in perspec-
Graphic designers tive from a world which is perceived as a machine - to a world which is seen as
Jody Boehnert composed of complex systems. An ecologically informed paradigm will involve
Angela Morelli deep perceptual shifts towards a more complex, moral, integrated and global
perspective. EcoLabs works to address the cause of the environmental crisis,
Artists / designers which we see as a lack of ecological understanding.
six degrees:
Airside EcoMag is a magazine about art, design & sustainability. Each issue will
Jody Barton focus on a theme while investigating issues lying at the root of the ecological crisis.
Rod Hunt The theme of the first issue is ‘Future Scenarios’. All the ideas presented in this
Leona Clark magazine can be explored further in the original writings of the authors which in
Kate Evans all causes is prolific. References and bibliographies are posted on the EcoLabs
Jamie Slimmon website (www.eco-labs.org). We are indebted to the authors: Mark Lynas, David
Si Yeun Kim Holmgren and Herman Daly and grateful for having been granted permission to
borrow freely and/or republish work. The only change to the original work is in
steady state: Herman Daly’s ‘cap and trade’ mechanism, which we do not recommend due to
Angela Morelli inherent problems with trading systems as a means of protecting ecosystems and
preserving resources. There is insufficient room in this issue to explore this
abcd scenarios: important issue in depth but there are links to related articles expanding on this
Andrew Merritt topic on the website and we promise to follow it up in EcoMag No.2 - which will
focus on ‘Economics’.
Text - with thanks to:
Mark Lynas
David Holmgren
Herman Daly

EcoMag ©EcoLabs 2009

Artwork in this book was made
for the Climate Roadshow and
funded by Awards for All and EcoLabs aims to make artwork available for free to grassroots environmental groups.
Artist’s Project Earth. Some of the work in this book is licenced according to the EcoLabs system:
Constituted not for profit groups with a turn over under £50k may use our work for free.
NGOs, charities, schools and agencies with a turn over £50k must pay a modest fee.
All commercial use of our images (larger than a 2 by 3 inches) must pay a fee.
www.eco-labs.org In all cases please send a request for images to: artwork@eco-labs.org.

Future
Scenarios
Section 1 Six Degrees
Section 2 ABCD Scenarios
Section 3 Steady State

Three bodies of work show various futures as predicted
through three different lenses: science, permaculture and
economics. Six Degrees illustrates Mark Lynas’ book of the
same title based on evidence compiled from hundreds of
peer-reviewed scientific papers on projected changes with each
degree of climate warming. ABCD Scenarios describes four
potential future scenarios based on permaculture founder
David Holmgren’s work on the impact of energy transitions
and multiple converging crises. Steady State is a graphic
representation of eco-economist Herman Daly’s work on a
sustainable economic system.
Of course the real future will not be neatly defined by any
one of these future scenarios, but will be a complex mixture
of many driving forces. What all scenarios demonstrate
is that humanity is now at a critical junction. The planet is
experiencing a climate crisis. The generations of people alive
now will either commit the most colossal moral failure in
history, or will start a massive enterprise in transition. The
gravity, scope, and depth of the problem demand the greatest
collective effort and cooperation. None of us can succeed
in addressing the root causes of the problem alone; but
collectively, we have a window of an opportunity to act. *

*Tipping points in the climate system mean that if we continue
to increase carbon in the atmosphere we will move beyond points
where the climate will be able to maintain stability or recover.

Six Degrees
Six artists respond to Mark Lynas’ Six Degrees, the book compiled
from hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific papers describing the
projected changes with each degree of climate warming.
text by: Mark Lynas

artwork by: Kate Evans

1º ...Whilst I and many people feel that natural life and biodiversity
have an instrinsic value, seperate from their use to humans, all
human sociey is at root dependent on natural ecosystems. This might
come as news to the adverage city dweller tucking into a ready meal
infront of ITV, but it does not make it less true. From fish to fuel
wood, nature’s bounty feeds us, houses us, warms us and clothes us.
Soils wouldn’t support agriculture were it not for the organic matter
broken down by bacteria. Crops would not set seed unless polinated
by bees. The air would not be breathable were it not for photo-
synthesis by trees and plankton. Water would not be drinkable
were it not for the cleasing action of forests and wetlands...

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| 4 | ecomag

Consider the thought that living species, which have
evolved on this planet over millions of years, could
be destroyed for ever in the space of one human
generation.

eco mag | 5 |

2 º
artwork by: Airside

Thermal expansion of oceans and melting ice will
lead to a subtantial rise in sea level, forcing evacuation
of homes in coastal communities.

A three-degree rise in global temperature - something that could
happen as early as 2050 - effectively reverses the carbon cycle.
Instead of absorbing CO2 vegetation and soil starts releasing it
in massive quantities, as soil bacteria work faster to break down
organic matter in a hotter environment, and plant growth goes into
reverse. ... in other words the Hadley Centre’s team had discovered
that carbon cycle possible feedbacks could tip the planet into a
runaway global warming spiral by the middle of this century...

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3 º
artwork by: Rod Hunt

For an analogue for the three degree world, we have to go back...
before the Earth entered its regular cycle of ice ages and interglacial.
We have to go back a full 3 million years, to a period of time called
the Pliocene. Continentals glaciers were almost entirely absent -
contributing to a sea level 25 metres higher than today’s.
...if emissions go on rising as they currently are, global tempera-
tures could shoot past three degrees as early as 2050.

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Climate models indicate an increase in the frequency
and duration of extreme events. Extreme weather
events will cause heavy loss of life and extensive
damage.

eco mag | 9 |

4 º
artwork by: Jamie Slimmon

Population will be flocking north, to overcrowded
refuges in the Baltic, Scandinavia and the British
Isles... but with habitable areas becoming more
and more crowded, conflict may come sooner rather
than later even in temperate, civilised Europe.

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5 º
artwork by: Jody Barton

With five degrees of global
warming, an entirely new planet
is coming into being - one largely
unrecognisable from the Earth we
know today...Humans are herded
into shrinking zones of habitability
by the twin crises of drought and
flood.

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6 º
artwork by: Leona Clarke

Hotter oceans bring hurricanes,
far outdoing anything we see
today. These superhurricanes
(hypercanes) will have enough
energy to carry them to the
North Pole and back, perhaps
even allowing them to repeatedly
circumnavigate the globe.

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So far as we yet know, this is the only planet in the entire universe
which has summoned forth life in all its brilliance and variety. To
knowingly cut this flowering short is undoubtedly a crime, one more
unspeakable even than the cruellest genocide or the most destructive
war. If each person is uniquely valuable, each species is surely more
so. I can see no excuses for collaborating in such a crime. As the
post-war Nuremberg trials established, ignorance is no defence;
nor is merely following orders. To me the moral path lies not in
passively accepting our destructive role, but in actively resisting
such a horrendous fate...Nothing in the future is set in stone; we
still have the power - though it diminishes every day - to alter the
ending of this terrible drama. It need not yet end in tragedy.

eco mag | 15 |

ABCD Scenarios
ABCD Scenarios describes potential future scenarios based on permaculture founder
David Holmgren’s work on the impact of energy transitions and converging crises.

Introduction by EcoLabs
Article text by David Holmgren
www.futurescenarios.org

artwork by: Andrew Merritt

We are facing a convergence of crises: social, economic and Security (ITPOES) which released a report calling on the UK
ecological - they are all related and need to be considered in government to plan for peak oil. Overstressed governments
tandem. Pioneering thinkers realized the systemic nature of our have been slow to acknowledge the problem, and plans to deal
problems back in the 1970s and permaculture was created with climate change have ignored the threat of peak oil.
as a design system for sustainable land use and living. Both permaculture and the transition movement claim that
Permaculture is now the theoretical basis of the transition there is no alternative energy source that can provide energy
movement - a fast growing network of communities working as cheaply and in such abundance as fossil fuels have in the
towards mobilizing to address climate change and peak oil past. Even controversial technologies such as nuclear power
simultaneously. will not provide enough energy to maintain current growing
Peak oil refers to the time when we hit a peak in global fuel demand. ‘Net energy’ refers to amount of energy obtained in
reserves. It is important because we are completely dependent comparison to the energy required to get it. Fossil fuels are very
on fossil fuels and once the peak happens fossil fuels will energy dense - while all other energy sources are significantly
become increasingly more expensive. If we do not anticipate less energy rich, and so as supplies diminish net energy is
this problem, energy shocks will result as supplies will no reduced. A growing number of researchers supports the per-
longer be able to cope with demand. Obviously, the economic maculture position: energy descent is an inevitable result of the
impact could be severe, and potentially disastrous if we fail to end of the fossil fuel era because there is no technology primed
plan ahead. to fill the energy gap as cheaply and efficiently as fossil fuels.
Both permaculture and the transition movements are based The ABCD Scenarios project examines possible futures which
on around the key concept of ‘energy descent’. Energy descent result from varying societal responses to the current situation
refers to a post-peak oil phase, when humankind goes from the as well as various rates of energy descent (steep or gradual).
ascending use of energy that has occurred since the industrial The following four scenarios are republished with kind permis-
revolution to a descending use of energy. A transition town/city sion from David Holmgren’s website: www.futurescenarios.org.
is a space engaged in the collaborative design of a local ‘Energy The scenarios sketch four futures:
Descent Action Plan’ (EDAP). An EDAP is a plan for wean- A: Business as usual,
ing a community off fossil fuels, building alternatives infra- B: Green technological revolution,
structure and resilience into a regional space. While climate C: Bottom up rebuild,
change means we should lower our use of fossil fuels, peak oil D: Economic, social and ecological collapse.
means we will have to do so. Peak oil is a major challenge that Examining possible futures is considered to be a good way
will make dealing with climate change especially complex. of informing decision making. Solutions to systemic
Peak oil is increasingly recognized by independent research- problems are largely cultural and ethical - requiring shifts in
ers and also widely acknowledged within the energy industry. behaviour rather than just new technology. Whether we allow
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently dramatically our industrial systems to cross invisible limits, disabling
changed its position in regards to peak oil. In its 2008 World the capacity of ecological systems to maintain stability - is
Energy Outlook report the IEA’s own figures for projected rate a decision we are in the process of making. As long as our
of decline in world energy supply almost doubled from the cultural and political institutions are unwilling to address
previous year - from 3.7% a year (2007) to a 6.7% a year (2008). problems systemically, all crises will continue to multiply. We
In 2008 several major companies including Arup, Yahoo and create our future today, and if we don’t change direction - we
Virgin created the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy are likely to end up where we are headed.

David Holmgren founded the permaculture concept in the 1970s with Bill Mollison. Permaculture creates is a design philosophy for human settle-
ments and productive ecosystems that work with nature, with the aim of reducing society’s reliance on industrial systems. Holmgren is the author of
many books including Permaculture: Principles and Pathways Beyond Sustainability (2002) and most recently Future Scenarios (2009).

| 16 | ecomag

A.
Brown Tech: Top Down Constriction
Slow energy decline rates, severe climate change symptoms

The Brown Tech world is one in which relations. The profits from both non- internment camps either for migrants
the production of oil declines after a renewable resources and large scale or homeless people. Strong approaches
peak 2005-2010 at about 2% per annum industrial agriculture rise on the back of to population control, even forced
and the subsequent peak and decline of high commodity prices, reversing many sterilization are introduced in some
natural gas is also relatively gentle, but of the economic patterns and trends of countries.
the severity of global warming symp- recent decades. The wealth of farmers A series of short but intense inter-
toms is at the extreme end of current and miners as well as corporations and national conflicts confirm major shifts
mainstream scientific predictions. In nations in control of these resources in global power balances while accel-
this scenario strong, even aggressive, increases even as depletion reduces the erating resource depletion. Control of
national policies and actions prevail flows of resources and climate change non-renewable fossil fuel and mineral
to address both the threats and the causes chaos in farming and land resources remains critical, while the
opportunities from energy peak and management. (relative) importance of distributed
climatic change. The political system The demand for biofuels in affluent renewable wealth from agriculture and
could be described as Corporatist or countries reduces world food stocks forestry continues to decline as the
Fascist (which Mussolini described as a and raises prices to levels that result climate deteriorates. With food supply
merger of state and corporate power). in famine and chaos in many poor under threat, fossil fuels and other
The tendency in existing systems countries unable to sustain subsidies resources are redirected from personal
for massive centralised investment by for staple food. In other countries, food mobility and consumption to intensive
corporations and governments, gives riots by the poor force government to factory farming in greenhouses and
priority to getting more energy out of pay for escalating subsidies. The wealth other controlled environments, mostly
lower grade non-renewable resources left over for education, health etc. clustered around urban centres and
(eg. tar sands, coal and uranium) and collapses. Wars to secure fuel and food managed by agribusiness corporations.
biofuels from industrial agriculture and increase and refocus public attention Desalination and other high energy
forestry. “Breakthrough” technologies on external threats. In richer countries, ways to maintain water supply systems
provide the constant promise of a bet- consumer led economic growth falters are built at huge cost and further
ter future but much of the investment or is actively shut down by government increase demand for energy. The threat
in energy harvesting accelerates global policies to focus limited resources on of sea level rises leads to large scale
warming, at least in the short term. food, fuel and climate security. Some urban redevelopment driven by strong
At the same time the cost of defend- type of global economic depression government policies. Some very bold
ing or replacing urban infrastructure unfolds from the combined effects of initiatives for energy efficient medium
threatened by storms and future sea high energy and food prices, super- density urban development and public
level rise consumes more resources, power contest, resource nationalism transport infrastructure are funded. A
while droughts and chaotic seasonal and the fragility of the financial system. key characteristic of this scenario is the
changes reduce food production from Rapid onset of climate change also sense of divide between the reducing
broadacre and small scale agriculture. tends to support centralised nationalist numbers of “haves” dependent on a
Flows of energy from more expensive systems for several reasons. First the job in the “system” and the relatively
sources such as tar sands, deep ocean consequences of chaotic weather, food lawless, loose but perhaps communitar-
oil, gas to liquids and coal to liquids supply problems, radical land use ian “have nots” with their highly flexible
slow the decline in fuels from crude change and abandonment of marginal and nomadic subcultures living from
oil. This transition requires a huge land, leads to demands for strong the wastes of the “system” and the
mobilisation of the technical and government action to protect people wilds of nature. Security of the “haves”
managerial capacity held mostly by from high food and fuel costs, natural is a constant issue with gated com-
global corporations, along with the disasters, the consequences of strong munities, and apartheid style townships
financial, legal and military security action by other nations, and mass and barrios for the “have nots”. While
that only sovereign governments can migration by displaced people. Rates of economic depression and reduction
provide. This resource nationalism by urbanisation increase as climate change in consumption slow greenhouse gas
government breaks down free trade impacts and withdrawal of government emissions, the rapid expansion of
and the faith in international markets supported services in more remote strategic investment by government in
that underpins the global economy. rural regions accelerates. new energy and urban infrastructure
By 2007, we had already seen the shift A decline of the middle class (already more than replaces the reduced private
from a buyers to a sellers market for evident in many western countries) consumption, leading to a positive
energy cascading through all commodi- accelerates leading to discontent and feedback loop that accelerates global
ties markets and reshaping geopolitical suppression by government including warming.

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While the elites continue to be driven and even more or less socially stable for
by a commitment to super rationalist many decades until ongoing climatic
beliefs, a sense of hollowness and lack breakdown and reduced net energy
of purpose characterises the shrinking return drive a shift to the Lifeboats
middle class, while fundamentalist scenario.
religions and cults play a stronger role in “Top down constriction” summarises
the lives of the working and unemployed the essence of this scenario in that
classes partly through genuine reactions national power constricts consumption
to the failures of modern humanism and focuses resources to maintain the
and partly manipulated by the elites to nation state, in the face of deteriorating
deflect anger and disenchantment. The climate and reduced energy and food
Brown Tech scenario could be dominant supply.

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B.
Green Tech: Distributed Powerdown
Slow energy decline rates, mild climate change symptoms

The Green Tech scenario is the most agribusiness corporations are the main descent may seem artificial, but there
benign, in that adverse climate changes beneficiaries employing both high are reasons to believe that the Green
are at the low end of projections. Oil technology and cheap labour from Tech scenario will tend towards a more
and gas production declines slowly as migrant workers. In some regions, egalitarian structure with the relative
in the Brown Tech future, so the sense of with poorer and steeper land and more shift of power from control of oil wells
chaos and crisis is more muted without diversified land ownership, smaller scale and mines to control of the productivity
major economic collapse or conflict. polyculture systems designed using of nature via traditional land uses such
This allows resources to flow to a greater permaculture principles spread wealth as agriculture and forestry and more
diversity of responses at the global, more evenly through local communities. novel renewable technologies.
national, city, community and personal Continuous contraction affects large The inherently distributed nature
level. In some already densely populated sections of the economy but the energy, of these resources will lead to more
poor countries, conditions worsen. resource and agriculture sectors along distributed economic and political
However, higher commodity with recycling and retrofit industries power at the level of cities, their hin-
prices allows some poorer producer experience rapid growth based on high terlands and organisations focused at
economies to escape their debt cycle commodity prices that are sustained this scale. For example, successful large
while programs to empower women despite economic recession in the main scale farmers who have reduced their
result in rapid reduction in the birth consuming economies. In some affluent dependence of energy intensive inputs
rate. The gradual reduction in capacity countries, reform of monetary systems through permaculture strategies and
of countries to impose power globally lowers the scale of financial collapses organic methods may find new profits
(due to rising energy costs) increases and refocuses capital on productive and in more localized markets with prices
national security. There is a redirection socially useful innovation and investment. sustained by policies that encourage
of resources away from defense and Information technology continues regional self reliance. Any profits beyond
resource capture to resource conserva- to yield gains in energy and resource farming are likely to be invested into
tion and innovation. The consolidation management; from real time pricing local energy systems that generate
of the global communication systems and self-healing electrical grids, to more employment and further reduce
maintains global outlooks and under- internet based ride sharing systems and economic dependence on central
standings if not global economics. telecommuting. Conservation yields the governments and large corporations. It
As in the Brown Tech scenario, greatest gains with major public policies is possible that these same processes
electrification is a key element in the to change personal and organisational could lead to highly inequitable, even
energy transition but the renewable behaviour. In other countries, especially feudal systems. However the universal
energy sources of wind, biomass, solar, the USA, the apparent opportunities for focus on more sustainable production
hydro, tidal, wave etc. grow rapidly continued economic growth, combine and reduced consumption that is not
developing a more diverse and distrib- with political policies to support a low forced by remote and arbitrary central
uted mix. The relatively benign climate carbon economy, leading to a renewable power, has the tendency to foster more
allows a resurgence of rural and regional energy investment bubble followed by a egalitarian responses than in the Brown
economies on the back of sustained and severe recession. Tech scenario.
growing prices for all natural commodi- State and city governments respon- The substantial reductions in
ties including feedstocks for biofuels. sible for providing services are able to greenhouse gas emissions that result
The principles behind organic lead much of the restructuring to more from this scenario keep climate change
agriculture and ecological management compact cities and towns with increas- impacts to a minimum, thus stabilising
and resource allocation become the ing public transport infrastructure. and reinforcing the scenario’s basic char-
norm in many farming systems, helping Growth in large cities (especially in acteristics for at least several decades.
to stabilise agriculture challenged by coastal lowlands) is reversed by public The success in radically reducing con-
increasing cost of energy inputs and policies ahead of the worst effects of sumption of resources while sustaining
(albeit mild) climate change. energy cost and global warming, while modest growth in some local economies
The accelerating conflict between regional cities, towns and villages see combined with stabilization of the climate,
biofuels and food is stabilised if not modest growth on a compact urban encourages a new “sustainability” elite to
resolved by government subsidies to model that preserves prime agricultural consider further changes to consolidate
support food supply from agriculture, land and develops mixed use neigh- these achievements in the face of ongoing
with biofuels coming mainly from bourhoods with more local work and net energy decline. The worse excesses
forestry wastes. In many regions with radically less commuting. of consumer capitalism are controlled by
prime agricultural land and small The placing together of many of the restriction and reforms of advertising and
populations, wealthy farmers and more optimistic aspects of energy other dysfunctional forces.
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Civic culture strengthens where expected in a ‘Techno Stability Long
further transition towards a non-materi- Term’ scenario where new energy
alistic society combines with the matura- sources manage to replace fossil fuels The fishing industry damages
tion of feminism and environmentalism, without the stresses that lead to system o
cean ecosystems.
and a resurgence in indigenous and wide contraction. The current levels of
traditional cultural values. These trends ecological, economic and socio-political
stabilise the accelerating loss of faith in stress are the indirect indicators that
secular humanism allowing the evolu- we are entering the energy descent This damage is hidden under
tion of more spiritual “cultures of place”. scenarios rather than simply a transition t
he sea away from people.
Over time an evolution toward the Earth from energetic growth to stability. Rela-
Steward scenario seems an obvious tive insulation from those stresses and
and natural response to the inexorable the persistence of faith in the monetary
decline of non-renewable resources. accounting “house of cards” by the up- The government, elected by
“Distributed Powerdown” summarises per middle class (if not the global elites) p
eople, set rules for industry.
this scenario by emphasising both the continues the confusion. The lack of
distributed nature of resources and understanding of net energy accounting
power, and the planned contraction and disagreement amongst the experts
involved. on appropriate methods, combined with But these rules allow the
At their extremes the Green Tech and political pressures from the unfolding damage to our sea to go on.
Brown Tech scenarios also describe crisis lead to energetic descent being
many of the elements that could be mistaken for “business as usual”.
| 21 | eco mag

C.
Earth Steward: Bottom Up Rebuild
Rapid energy decline rates, mild climate change symptoms

In this scenario the decline in oil capacity. The collapse in the tax base institute land reform and debt cancel-
production after a peak in total liquids available to national and state govern- lation following collapse of financial
production before 2010 is at the ex- ments reduces their power and even institutions and central banks, allowing
treme end of authoritative predictions city level restructuring of infrastructure people to stay on their properties.
(about 10%) and is followed by an even is difficult, but local government retains Suburban landscapes around smaller
faster decline in gas production plus a some degree of effective services, deci- cities and regional towns with greater
simultaneous peak in coal production. sion making and possibly democracy. social capital are transformed with
The shock to the world’s fragile finan- Collapse of larger businesses and a booming and relatively egalitarian
cial systems is overwhelming, resulting the difficulties in maintaining urban society sustained by bio-intensive/
in severe economic depression and infrastructure leads to a hollowing out permaculture farming and retrofitting
perhaps some further short, sharp of the cities. Loss of jobs and houses and reuse supported by resources from
resource wars. leads to migration of people out of cit- both the immediate rural hinterland
This economic collapse and these ies to smaller towns, villages and farms and inner urban salvage.
political stresses, more than the actual with more robust local economies able This ruralisation of suburban
shortage of resources, prevents the to take advantage of the influx of labour. landscape to produce food on all
development of more expensive and Impacts and demands on local soil, available open space, private and public
large scale non-renewable resources water and forest resources increases, to provides most of the fresh fruit and
that characterise the Brown Tech severe levels in many poor countries as vegetables, dairy and small livestock
scenario or the renewable resources people move out of the cities to harvest products. Local currencies, food, car
and infrastructure of the Green Tech. fuel, wildlife and restart food produc- and fuel co-ops, community supported
International and national communication. In long affluent countries, the agriculture all grow rapidly. Informal
tions networks break down. underuse of local biological resources and household economies provide an
Electricity grids become non-func- in the late 20th century provides some increasing proportion of basic needs as
tional as cost and availability of fuels buffer against these impacts. corporate and government systems fail
and spare parts reduce production and Large numbers of homeless ex-urban- to deliver.
lack of paying businesses and customers ites form a new underclass lacking even Around the larger cities especially
reduces revenues. International tensions the skills of poverty. They provide basic in countries where social capital and
remain but capacity of stronger coun- labour in exchange for food and accom- community capacity is severely eroded,
tries to use military force is constrained modation on farms needing the labour. most of these new developments are in
by unreliable energy and parts supplies Surviving structures of power may gated communities providing the basic
and the strong evidence that war uses adapt to impose a more feudal struc- needs and security of their residents
more resources than it captures. Global ture based on concentrated control of with trade outside the community being
warming is slowed dramatically and productive farms and forests and built more difficult or dangerous. Outside
reversed by the collapse of the global assets in large farming estates. the gated communities salvage, fuel
consumer economy and absence of Organic and small farmers, close to harvesting and animal husbandry are
large scale investment in new energy markets and able to make use of labour the main economic activities with trade
infrastructure. and animal power, thrive (to the extent controlled by gangs and local warlords.
There is a radical reduction in mass security allows) in a context of relatively While the impacts on people and
mobility of both people and goods. benign and slow climate change. An local environments of this scenario are
The food supply chain is severely explosion of home businesses based severe, in previously affluent countries
affected both on farms and through the on building and equipment retrofit, at least, there is also a cultural and
distribution system. Energy intensive maintenance and salvage starts to build spiritual revolution as people are
large scale farming supplying central a diversified economy. Further afield released from the rat race of addictive
marketing chains is the worst affected biofuels from crop waste allow farmers behaviours and begin to experience the
leading to abandonment of even highly to continue to use machinery while gift of resurgent community and the
productive land. Shortages lead to wood and charcoal gasification based simple abundance of nature to provide
rationing, black markets, and riots for on regrowth forest resources near for basic needs.
food and energy. settlements and towns provide an in- The biggest difference from the Green
Increases in crime, malnutrition creasing proportion of limited transport Tech and Brown Tech scenarios is that
and disease lead to a rising death fuel. This small business growth in turn the rebuilding and stabilisation is no
rate accelerated in some countries by provides a new tax base for some form longer based on dreams of sustainability
epidemics and pandemics that have a of effective local government. In some or restoring the old system. Instead
major impact on social and economic places new bioregional governments people accept that each generation will
| 22 | eco mag

have to face the challenges of further
ongoing simplification and localisation
of society as the fossil resource base
continues to decline. This simplification
in the material domain is seen as the
opportunity for growth in the spiritual
domain. There is a resurgence in leader-
ship by women and a celebration of the
feminine in nature and people. “Bottom
Up Rebuild” summarises this scenario
by emphasising the new growth from
biological and community foundations.
In some ways this scenario might be
considered as the archetypal one of
the Energy Descent future and the one
in which permaculture principles and
strategies are most powerfully applied.

| 23 | eco mag

D.
Lifeboats: Civilization Triage
Rapid energy decline rates, severe climate change symptoms

In this scenario, supplies of high ongoing availability of high quality metals In the Long Term Collapse scenario, any
quality fossil fuels decline rapidly, the and other materials make a critical tech- future civilisation that could emerge
economy fails, and human contributions nological distinction from that of ancient only learns from the lessons of ours via
to global warming collapse but lag traditional hunter gatherer cultures. archeology and perhaps long attenuated
effects and positive feedbacks in the Mountain regions, especially with mythic stories. In the Lifeboat scenario
climate system continue to drive an surviving glacier fed rivers allow hydro- the retention of cultural knowledge
acceleration of global warming. As of electric systems to be maintained and of the past combined with a moder-
2007, an increasing number of scientists rebuilt on a smaller scale. Nutrient rich ately habitable environment allow new
believe it may already be too late to glacier fed rivers also sustain intensive civilisations to emerge that build on
avoid catastrophic climate change. irrigated agriculture. In some localities, at least some of the knowledge and
In the Lifeboat scenario the adverse especially in favourable regions with lessons from ours.
symptoms of the Brown Tech and Earth accessible energy and agricultural Three factors may prevent the continu-
Steward scenarios combine to force a resources, communities analogous to ous free fall to a very low global popula-
progressive collapse in most forms of the monasteries of the early medieval tion of hunter gatherers surviving on the
economic and social organisation. Local period provide basic knowledge and fringes of the Arctic of a hotter planet:
wars, including use of nuclear weapons skills to their surrounding communities 1) The first is the wild card created by
accelerate collapse in some areas but and are thus protected by the locals the mixing of the world’s biota, most
the failure of national systems of power from the ravages of local warlords and notable the large numbers of tree and
prevent global warfare. Successive waves pirates. These communities, mostly in other species that exhibit what foresters
of famine and disease breakdown social rural and suburban areas, and based call “exotic vigour”. This allows new
and economic capacity on a larger scale on pre-collapse efforts of intentional recombinant ecosystems to stabilize
than the Black Death in medieval Europe communities or rich benefactors, pursue many environments that climate
leading to a halving of global population the task of saving and condensing scientists are now saying will become
in a few decades. knowledge and cultural values for the uninhabitable in extreme climate
New forms of oasis agriculture that long dark ages ahead. change. The release of critical minerals,
are low input versions of the Brown Tech “Civilisation triage” refers to the most notably phosphorus over the last
intensive systems evolve that stabilise processes by which remaining social 200 years into the biosphere may allow
food production as chaotic seasons capacity (beyond meeting immediate these new ecosystems to ultimately
make traditional field agriculture and basic needs) are focused on conserving achieve biological productivity exceeding
horticulture almost impossible. Forest technology and culture that could be that possible from pre-existing systems.
and rangeland hunting and harvesting useful to a future society, once energy 2) Secondly the flooding of large
become the predominant use of descent is stabilised after a precipitous areas of coastal lowlands complete with
resources over large regions supporting but limited collapse process. This is not complex reef structures from flooded
nomadic bands. Warrior and gang cults the dominant process of the scenario cities and infrastructure may also create
provide meaning in a world of grief and but the most significant in terms of the conditions for highly productive
violence, leading to the development of future cultural capacity. The Christian shallow waters and estuaries. These
new religions and even languages that monasteries that saved many of the types of ecosystem are some of the
attempt to make sense of people’s lives. elements of Greco-Roman culture and most biologically productive ecosystems
Urban areas are largely abandoned later provided the foundations for the on the planet.
and dangerous but remain valuable as Renaissance of Western civilisation is 3) Thirdly, the precipitous drop
quarries for salvaging materials (espe- one historical example that could serve in human numbers and their initial
cially metals). Suburban landscapes as a model for understanding how this tendency to remain relatively aggregated
become ruralised into defensive hamlets process might work. to make use of the huge resources from
making use of salvaged materials, urban At its extreme, this scenario describes industrial salvage materials (and for
storm water and surplus building space many of the elements of a Long Term security) should see very large regions
for mixed household economies. Collapse in which there is a complete able to recover without harvesting and
The impacts are very patchy with breakdown in the lineage of indus- other impacts from people.
worse effects in high density previously trial civilisation such that future simple If the knowledge of ecological process-
affluent and urbanised countries. In societies retain nothing from what we es and their creative manipulation using
the most remote regions, remnants created through industrial civilisation. minimal resources are retained and
of hunter-gatherer and pioneer farmer Drawing a distinction between this developed in the Lifeboat communities,
cultures are better able to weather the scenario and total collapse may seem then survival and resurgence of a more
changes. The relative abundance and pedantic but the reasons are important. than minimalist culture may allow global
| 24 | eco mag

human population to be sustained at
perhaps half, rather than one tenth, of
current levels. More importantly it may
be possible to embed the wisdom of the
lessons learnt so that unconstrained
human growth does not repeat such an
intense cycle. Clearly these last thoughts
are highly speculative but build from the
same linage of permaculture thinking
developed over the last thirty years that
informs the rest of the scenarios.
An alternative fishery, where
ocean life can begin to replenish
itself, is visualized at
www.eyeoverf ishing.org

| 25 | eco mag

Steady State
Sustaining society over the long term requires existing within the carrying capacity of
the ecosystem. The Steady State Economy - A Totem of Real Happiness is a graphic
representation of eco-economist Herman Daly’s model of a sustainable economic system.
artwork by: Angela Morelli

Infinite economic growth cannot be sustained on a planet to be addressed to allow us to share the planet peacefully. A
with finite resources. Geophysical constraints limit economic Steady State world will set limits on income inequality. While it
growth as it is currently conceived. Our economic model is is difficult to decide what the permitted range of incomes should
unsustainable and being unsustainable means that it will be, Herman Daly describes the importance of developing a
eventually collapse; and while financial collapse is painful, system ‘that rewards real difference and contributions rather than
ecological collapse is terminal. just multiplying privilege’. Plato thought that a factor of 4 (4:1
The alternative to environmental devastation and economic ratio between highest and lowest incomes) was ideal for wealth
collapse is for humanity to learn to live within the ecological differential. Universities, the civil services and the military have
limits of biosphere. Under current conditions, this requirement always seemed to manage on a factor of 10 to 20. But the US
is practically impossible. A more integrated economic model is corporate sector works on a factor of 500 or more. This vast
urgently needed. Growth must be redefined from a quantitative disparity in wealth corrupts democratic systems and destroys
to a qualitative state. Herman Daly describes a model ‘STEADY the capacity of the system to function sustainably by creating
STATE’ economy. Survival over the long term now depends on the conditions for abuse of power.
our ability to quickly learn the basic ecological principles that 2) Eco-Effectiveness
characterize a sustainable economic system. A Steady State system strives for eco-effectiveness rather than
mere efficiency. Within this system the danger of being efficient
TWO MAJOR GUIDING PRINCIPLES at doing the wrong things is recognized. Cradle to Cradle author
In this economic model there are two major guiding principles: Michael Braungart explains: ‘an unefficient neo-Nazi is much
I better than an efficient one’. In 2009 we are increasingly efficient
We don’t use natural resources faster than they at destroying natural resources and our climate system. Efficiency
can be replenished by the planet. without ecological competence is lethal.
II 3) Lower Impact Lives:
We don’t deposit wastes faster than they In a Steady State world, products will be designed and built
can be absorbed. to last. Disposable goods will no longer be considered to be
In this society, people who study nature work out what levels of acceptable. Maintenance and repair will be important sources of
consumption and emissions are sustainable – and then we work employment - as will be science, technology and design. The all-
out how to make sure we do not breach these limits. important concept is the maintenance of the economic system
Economic growth is presently entirely dependent on fossil within the ‘carrying capacity’ of the ecological system. Without
fuels, and yet given current scientific consensus on the danger the imperative of economic growth, there will be simply less
of carbon emissions, we need to move to a situation where we work that needs to be done. People will work less and the whole
cap extraction of gas, oil and tar. For other natural resources we pace of life will be more relaxed. Incomes will be lower, there will
must tax resources at point of extraction from the earth, i.e. fish be less ‘stuff’- but we will have more time. In addititon, we will
as they are scooped from the sea, minerals as they are mined understand that no-one has the right to use more than their fair
from the earth and trees as they are taken from the forest. This share of the earth’s resources.
will raise the price of these resources and encourage people to 4) Re-Designed Financial Systems
use them more sparingly. All that superfluous packaging will In a Steady State world, the financial system of late capitalism,
disappear (with wide spread other changes). Better design will based entirely on speculative value, will be accepted as funda-
be essential. mentally unstable and unsustainable. The enormous pyramid of
debt that props up our economy in 2009 will make addressing
FOUR MAIN SUB-MECHANISMS climate change and other environmental and social problems
1) Fair Limits to Inequality virtually impossible until we address the more fundamental
While these measures will increase the price of commodities problems with the current unsustainable financial system. In a
in such a fashion that will hit the poor hard, other strategies Steady State system we will have evolved a more comprehensive
will be created to alleviate inequity. The vast and increasing understanding of the relationship between economics and the
disparity between rich and poor that exists in 2009 will need environment.

Herman Daly is an eco-economist who has been questioning the growth model of neo-classical economics for four decades. Daly’s position is
recognized by natural scientists as necessary to address global economy’s destructive impact on global environmental systems. The graphic is
adapted from the article ‘Life in a Land without Growth’ in The New Scientist (15 October 2008), based on a conversation with Herman Daly.

| 26 | eco mag

Backing Away From the Tipping Point
Ten Crucial Steps to Attain an Ecologically Viable Economic Future
1. Cap limits to biophysical 6. Downgrade the IMF-WB-
scale according to source or WTO to something like Keynes’
sink constraint, whichever is plan for a multilateral payments
more stringent. Auction captures clearing union, charging penalty
scarcity rents for equitable rates on surplus as well as
redistribution. deficit balances – seek balance
2. Ecological tax reform – on current account, avoid large
Shift tax base from value added capital transfers and foreign
(labor and capital) and on to debts.
“that to which value is added,” 7. Move to 100 percent
namely the entropic throughput reserve requirements instead
of resources extracted from of fractional-reserve banking.
nature (depletion), through the Put control of money supply
economy, and back to nature and seigniorage in hands of the
(pollution). Internalizes external government rather than private
costs as well as raises revenue banks.
more equitably. Prices the scarce 8. Enclose the remaining
but previously unpriced contribu- commons of rival natural
tion of nature. capital in public trusts, and
3. Limit the range of inequality price it, while freeing from
in income distribution – A private enclosure and prices
minimum income and a the non-rival commonwealth of
maximum income. Without knowledge and information. Stop
aggregate growth, poverty treating the scarce as if it were
reduction requires redistribu- non-scarce, and the non-scarce
tion. Complete equality is unfair; as if it were scarce.
unlimited inequality is unfair. 9. Stabilize population – Work
Seek fair limits to inequality. toward a balance in which births
4. Free up the length of the plus in-migrants equals deaths
working day, week and year – plus out-migrants.
Allow greater option for leisure 10. Reform national accounts
or personal work. Full-time – Separate GDP into a cost
external employment for all is account and a benefits account.
hard to provide without growth. Compare them at the margin,
5. Re-regulate international stop growing when marginal
commerce – Move away from costs equal marginal benefits.
free trade, free capital mobility Never add the two accounts.
and globalization; adopt This text is reprinted with
compensating tariffs to protect permission from a paper Herman
efficient national policies of cost Daly wrote for the UK Sustainable
internalization from standards- Development Commission in 2008.
lowering competition from other The full text can be found at
countries. www.theoildrum.com.

EcoMag
EcoLabs | No.1 June 2009

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