Today’s society is shaped by technology in unprecedented ways. We all face disruptive changes in our lives and new challenges which, paradoxically, can be both created and addressed by the various digital technologies that inform, empower and influence individual citizens on a massive scale. There has been no previous period in history where millions of ordinary citizens have been able to freely access knowledge and simultaneously share their lives and opinions with a global audience. The empowerment of citizens through accessible and affordable technologies represents a significant challenge to defence and security. The knowledge about weapons and explosive devices which can readily be accessed and the powerful and portable communication tools available today are in a large measure responsible for the phenomenon of “Asymmetric Warfare” in which individuals and small groups with limited traditional military resources can pose serious problems for the far better equipped armed forces responsible for defence and security. It is therefore the way in which technology empowers individual citizens with access to seemingly unlimited information and choice that creates the tensions, conflicts and disruptive changes in which the needs of society challenge the rights and responsibilities of the individual. These so-called “Grand Challenges” brought about by conflicts between the need for a secure society and individual citizen rights to privacy and civil liberties represent a potential threat to a secure and peaceful future, as is evidenced by on-going and long drawn out conflicts in countries striving for democratic freedom.

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Complex Adaptive Systems and Defence
T R A I N I N G & S I M U L A T I O N
By: David Wortley
People Power
Today’s society is shaped by technology in unprecedented
ways. We all face disruptive changes in our lives and
new challenges which, paradoxically, can be both created
and addressed by the various digital technologies that
inform, empower and influence individual citizens on a
massive scale. There has been no previous period in
history where millions of ordinary citizens have been
able to freely access knowledge and simultaneously
share their lives and opinions with a global audience.
The empowerment of citizens through accessible and
affordable technologies represents a significant challenge
to defence and security. The knowledge about weapons
and explosive devices which can readily be accessed
and the powerful and portable communication tools
available today are in a large measure responsible for
the phenomenon of “Asymmetric Warfare” in which
individuals and small groups with limited traditional
military resources can pose serious problems for the
far better equipped armed forces responsible for
defence and security.
It is therefore the way in which technology empowers
individual citizens with access to seemingly unlimited
information and choice that creates the tensions,
conflicts and disruptive changes in which the needs of
society challenge the rights and responsibilities of the
individual. These so-called “Grand Challenges” brought
about by conflicts between the need for a secure
society and individual citizen rights to privacy and civil
liberties represent a potential threat to a secure and
peaceful future, as is evidenced by on-going and long
drawn out conflicts in countries striving for democratic
freedom.
Solving such conflicts between the needs of the indi-
vidual and the needs of society is an extremely complex
process which arguably requires a combination of the
power of the computer to process massive amounts
of data with the judgement and wisdom of human beings.
Smart Society systems are being researched and
developed with the resolution of such complex conflicts
in mind.
The European Union are funding a Smart Society
project designed to explore the potential of Complex
Adaptive Systems and to showcase the results through
a range of gamified scenarios based around complex
interactions between individual, group, organisational
and societal needs.
The project web site at http://www.smart-society-project.
eu/ provides further details of the project and relevant
contact information.
Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
Complex adaptive systems are characterised by an
ability to be very flexible and responsive, especially in
a rapidly changing environment. Combining the power
of human intelligence with the latest communication
tools and technologies which monitor the key elements
of the environment gives substantial leverage to those
individuals with the ability to use these tools and the
desire to influence the behaviour of others.
Graphical Model of a Complex Adaptive System
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Complex-adaptive-system.jpg)
Public disorder and insurgence have been fuelled by
“flash mobs” operating like a complex adaptive system
where individuals and groups communicate via social
media and mobile telephony to challenge and respond
to established policing strategies and this new phenom-
enon has led to criminal convictions for individuals found
to be involved in organising or inciting rioting or looting.
London Riots Flash Mob
(http://www.calwatchdog.com/2011/08/22/will-riots-inflame-california/)

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The European Union regards societal “Grand Challenges”
such as conflicts between the freedom and responsibility
of individuals and the needs of a secure and sustainable
society as strategically important and their FP7 “Smart
Society” project is an example of researching the use of
CAS.
The EU statement on Grand Challenges states :-
“Grand challenges are not to be defined, assessed or
solved by any single scientific or technological discipline
or within one specific sectoral policy framework.
Societies are facing complex, interlinked, global and
local challenges”.
See: http://ec.europa.eu/research/erab/pdf/erab-study-
grand-challanages-2012_en.pdf
Algorithmic and Autonomous Decision Support
Solutions
The Stock Market is itself an example of a complex
adaptive system in which a host of different stakeholders
and entities inter-operate in a complex way which adapts
and adjusts to the economic environment through
trading indexes and share prices.
An extension to the use of computing power to support
complex decision making is the development of
algorithms (a form of rules and artificial intelligence)
which automate trading decisions by responding
faster to a changing market environment than a human
trader
Complex Adaptive Systems and Defence
Complex Adaptive Systems have significant implications
for today’s military not simply because they could be
argued to be a symptom of asymmetric warfare and
civil insurgency, but also because of their potential to
support military training and decision making in combat
situations.
One of the key technologies for developing modern
defence and security strategies is the use of intelligent
sensor devices and real-time monitoring. Caspian
Learning have been demonstrating the use of the
Microsoft Kinect for a training application for NATO in
which trainees develop the skills and techniques for
searching suspect cargo ships.
The trainees use natural hand movements and gestures
to conduct the correct search protocols in a videogame
simulation.
The significance of the use of devices like the Kinect
is not only that they make training more intuitive and
engaging but also that they herald new and innovative
uses of intelligent devices which will increasingly behave
like complex adaptive systems and will provide military
support in key conflict situations.
The Kinect’s ability to respond intelligently to natural
movement and gesture will rapidly mature and develop
its capability for optical and audio recognition. This
means that such systems would be able to provide
early detection and identification of people, objects and
behaviours that could pose military threat and eventually,
through the use of algorithms and autonomous systems,
be able to effectively conduct the work of experienced
military personnel and/or act as support for skilled staff
operating outside the field of conflict.
War Games of the Future
Complex adaptive systems in which technology
provides human beings with extended powers is a
rapidly advancing field. We are already able to control
technology on Mars through a combination of embedded
intelligence, sensor and communications technologies.
In warfare, the use of UAVs or Drones controlled by
soldiers thousands of miles from their targets is
becoming more commonplace. All these systems rely
heavily on secure computing and communications
technologies.
Predator Drone Firing Missile
Perhaps the future of mankind will be dominated by
complex adaptive systems that autonomously manage
societal and military conflicts – the question is, who will
be in charge of their use?
David Wortley is a freelance consultant specialising
in Immersive Technologies.
For further information
please contact:
David Wortley FRSA
Immersive Technology Strategies
david@davidwortley.com