This document summarizes a research paper exploring the variation in economic recovery rates following displacement-inducing conflicts in different countries. It begins by defining key terms and variables. It then identifies Sierra Leone and Burundi as examples of countries with strong and weak economic recovery, respectively, and examines factors like land tenure that affected their variation. The document also examines northern Uganda's experience after displacement and the role of market development in recovery. It concludes by discussing future research opportunities in better understanding recovery patterns and the impact of policies like market interventions.

1. Developing Out of Displacement Exploring Variation in Economic Recovery of Northern Uganda and Other Countries Following Displacement-Inducing Conflict David Adeoluwa Sangokoya Center for Democracy, Development and Rule of Law Honors Program Advisors: Larry Diamond, Kathryn Stoner-Weiss, Jeremy Weinstein Stanford University May 2010 ©2008 guardian.co.uk | Acholi IDP camp in Unyama

2. “We used to have community structures…but all that has died down. Different cultures..when people came together in a camp, mixed up. No one is interested bringing back old strong community structures, and we’re stuck in subsistence farming … Government says the GDP has grown, GNP is doing well, the GTP is doing well. In the commands of some few. The rural people are still in sh--… People have returned, fine…but they’ve just taken their corpses for burial. Most people have lost hope, they cannot live a productive life…that is the big sh-- we’re in [after coming back from the camps].” - Interview, UNICEF-Lira employee, July 2008 Is recovery possible?

3. Despite overall losses, displacement throws up “winners” and “losers” in terms of growth recovery… Research question What causes variation in the rate of growth recovery after displacement- inducing conflict?

4. Part 1: Defining variables Displacement-inducing conflict ● conflict vs. post-conflict ● refugee ● IDP ● durable solutions ● growth recovery Part 2: Identifying and analyzing variation Methodology Strong growth recovery vs. weak growth recovery: Sierra Leone (SGR) and Burundi (WGR) Land tenure and growth Part 3: Developing out of displacement in northern Uganda Part 4: Market development after displacement-inducing conflict To redistribute or not redistribute: Can you address inequality and poverty reduction while promoting economic growth after conflict? Land tenure and market development—in the short run and long run Developing out of displacement

5. Forced migration Conflict and “post-conflict” scenarios Durable solutions Growth recovery Part one:Defining Variables 1. Macro-level, deductive observations by international, nonstate actors must be complemented with adequate ___ of micro-level foundations of displacement-inducing conflict. How organizations define people and places must more closelyt describe how things are; affects how organizations determine solutions , and indicate for success. ©2010 UNHCR in Sudan http://eos.io

6. Displacement-inducing agents: conflict (political violence), development projects, disasters, environmental* Causes of displacement-inducing conflict: Breaches in local, personal security: government terror, dissident violence, civil wars, and international wars on a territory (Moore and Shellman 2004) Voluntary and involuntary migrants: who’s forced? UNHCR, national governments and international community determine and define their constituency, despite problematic nature of distinction History of the refugee (1945-); IDPs (2000-) Durable solutions to displacement: return, resettlement, and reintegration (refugee flows and IDPs) Definitions and identities Conflict, displacement, and durable solutions

7. From conflict to “post-conflict”: developing a typology for indicating transition to “post-conflict” scenario UNDP 2008 Report on Post-Conflict Growth Recovery Criteria: Post-war annual GDP per capita growth averages of 2% or higher Higher average post-conflict growth rate than pre-conflict growth rate Strong growth recovery (SGR) countries: Weak growth recovery (WGR) countries: Micro-foundations of human migration and conflict, complemented with macro-level analysis Defining Growth Recovery

8. Part Two:Identifying and Analyzing Variation Methodology Strong growth recovery vs. weak growth recovery Sierra Leone Burundi Land tenure and growth 2. After crises such as displacement-inducing conflict, effective recovery policy matters. 3. Postwar grievances matter. ©2010 Farmer overlooks the farm land outside Kigali, Rwanda | Foreign Policy

9. Economic and historical analysis of a SGR and WGR country during and after conflict Michael Cernea’s Implementation Risks and Reconstruction (IRR) Model – understanding the effects of displacement Qualitative analysis Variation of rate of growth recovery in country case studies Variation in growth recovery across post-camp northern Uganda Independent variables: Methodology

10. Information from Doyle and Sambanis (2000) dataset on civil wars; UNDP 2008 Report – SGR and WGR; World Bank DDP Query; IMF DataMapper®; UNHCR Statistical Yearbooks 1994-2007 Dataset Country cases entering into post-conflict “transition” after 1990 Average GDP per capita annual percent growth rate Stock number of UNHCR-assisted displaced persons (refugees and IDPs) from 1990-2008 (per thousand population) Case selection

13. History – Economic Conflict History Disp. History IRR Analysis Burundi

14. History – Economic Conflict History Disp. History IRR Analysis Sierra Leone

15. Camp Displacement and Demographic Composition of Resettled Communities – Ex-combatants and DDR Natural, physical, human, and social capital recovery—land tenure systems Variation in Growth Recovery

16. Part Three:Developing out of displacement in northern Uganda History, displacement, and growth Land tenure reform? Recommendations for Ugandan government and NGOs 1. Macro-level, deductive observations by international, nonstate actors must be complemented with adequate ___ of micro-level foundations of displacement-inducing conflict. How organizations define people and places must more closelyt describe how things are; affects how Lira, Uganda, outside of Sankofa CafeDecember 2010

17. History Conflict Patterns 1 Conflict Patterns 2 Conflict Patterns 3 Displacement Patterns of conflict and displacement

18. Camp closure and phaseout Economic profile of Lira, northern Uganda in general Land tenure reform? Addressing inequality and growth Heading toward SGR or WGR?

19. Part Four:MarketDevelopment after displacement-inducingconflict To redistribute or not redistribute? Growth recovery and market development—toward “peace economies” Frameworks for market development Land tenure and market development Summary Future Research Kampala, Uganda, outside of IOM’s headoffice | December 2010

20. Basic macroeconomics: developing countries must focus on growth first, and then mechanisms for redistribution Increasing the pie increase individual slices Commitment issues Effects of displacement and conflict: loss of assets, skills, and productivity; damage of infrastructure and former market networks Is it possible to address inequality while promoting economic growth? Northern Uganda and Southern Uganda Addressing inequality and Growth

21. Growth important in order to have any peace: Market development to promote peace—towards “peace economies” Peacebuilding and economic recovery Framework for developing market development programmes that do not aggravate causes of conflict: Value Chain Framework: Understanding national supply and demand between suppliers and buyers and determining governance structures Making Markets Work for the Poor (M4P): Increasing incomes and enabling scale, sustainability and systemic market change Bottom of the Pyramid (BoP): Developing scalable products and services that work for the poor Social Enterprise: Inserting social enterprises into critical gaps in the market Growth Recovery and market development

22. Land tenure reform functions in Value Chain Framework Short-term effects in Sierra Leone, possible solutions to landlessness in northern Uganda and variation in growth recovery Tailoring market development strategies to peacebuilding initiatives Political economy of each conflict, identities of actors involved, and pre- and post-conflict market analyses matter Ultimately, increased growth will only occur with changes in incentives (Easterly) Land Tenure Reform and market Development: Panacea?

24. Definitions are necessary, but can both ameliorate and suffocate.

25. The impact of displacement is significant.

26. Addressing postwar grievances matters.

27. Fiscal policy and government interventions are necessary.

29. Definitions are necessary, but can both ameliorate and suffocate.

30. The impact of displacement is significant.

31. Addressing postwar grievances matters.

32. Fiscal policy and government interventions are necessary.

34. Professor David Abernethy and Jeremy Weinstein Professor Stephen Stedman (International Policy Studies/CISAC), GiliDrori (Sociology), Jennifer Wolf (Human Biology), Eric Morris (International Policy Studies), Ian Robertson (Archaeology) Professor Larry Diamond and Kathryn Stoner-Weiss (CDDRL Honors Program) Refugee Law Project (Moses Okello) Samaritan’s Purse Uganda Nic Cheeseman (Oxford Center on African Studies) Acknowledgements

35. Organizations: Yumiko Takashima/UNHCR, UNICEF, UN-OHCHR, IOM, Save the Children Uganda, UNDP, UN OCHA, World Food Programme, WHO, UNDP, Uganda Bureau of Statistics Daniel Othieno, Office of the Prime Minister, Lira District Funding: Chappell-Lougee, UAR Major Grant, Haas Center Program on Philanthropy and Civil Society (PACS), CDDRL Brian and Susan Davis, Chris and Jodi Blackham, Dale and Marika Christy, Ben and Holly Porter Michael Wilkerson, Jeff Love, Melina Platas All of my friends (and Meyer Library) who helped me endure until the end (CDDRL Honors Program, Bertram Ang, Jason Brown, Sidney Le, Sabrina Pol, Adrian Bonifacio, etc.) Acknowledgements