Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods

1. School of Environment
& Development
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods?
Beyond the renewal of housing markets
in low demand neighbourhoods
AAG Conference, Boston, 17th
April 2008
Graham Squires : University of Manchester

2. School of Environment
& Development
Overview
1. Linking to the PhD: Aims, Objectives, Methods and Case Studies
2. An Outline of HMR (Housing Market Renewal) Policy and Areas
3. Neighbourhood Case studies at Manchester City Scale and in a HMR Area
4. Renewing Neighbourhoods: A Demand Problem?
5. Rising Neighbourhood Values: Affordability and Overcrowding
6. Neighbourhood Mix and Social Inclusion in HMR Neighbourhoods
7. Conclusion

3. School of Environment
& Development
1. Linking to the PhD: Aims, Objectives, Methods and Case Studies

4. School of Environment
& Development
Overview of PhD: Aim
‘Exploring the Patterns, Dynamics and Drivers Within and
Between Low Demand and Low Value Neighbourhoods
at the City Scale and a HMR (Housing Market Renewal)
Area’

5. School of Environment
& Development
Methodology
• Initial Question Framework for US Interviewees (10)
– Explore Local Information Systems in US
– Understand Housing related Neighbourhood Regeneration Projects
– Generate further questions for Manchester Case
• Quantitative Analysis
– Neighbourhood Selection
– Local Information System – Review and Data Use
– PCA (Principal Component Analysis) / FA (Factor Analysis)
– Global Regression
– GWR Regression
• Return to Qualitative Interviews (25-30)
– Confirming & Enhancing Neighbourhood Driver Framework of
Correlations and Causality

6. School of Environment
& Development
Case Studies
• Between Neighbourhoods: City of Manchester
• Within Neighbourhoods: In Manchester-Salford Pathfinder
• More General Cases: Other HMR pathfinders in the UK and
industrially restructuring cities in the US.
UK US
Manchester Chicago
Pathfinders:
1. Manchester-Salford (MSP)
2. Merseyside (New Heartlands);
3. Newcastle-Gateshead;
4. South Yorkshire (Transform);
5. Birmingham & Sandwell (Urban Living),
6. Oldham & Rochdale,
7. North Staffordshire (Renew),
8. Hull & East Riding of Yorkshire
Baltimore
Philadelphia
St Louis
Detroit

7. School of Environment
& Development
2. An Outline of HMR (Housing Market Renewal) Policy and Areas

8. School of Environment
& Development
Background to the Research:
What has been the Government Response?
• Government policy in
response to low demand
neighbourhoods has been
to establish in 2002 a
Housing Market Renewal
Fund, as part of the
Sustainable Communities
Plan that was initially
targeted at nine Pathfinder
areas.
Map 1: The Nine Housing Market
Renewal Pathfinders in England

9. School of Environment
& Development
Aims of HMR
• HMR is largely a physical regeneration programme, aiming to
facilitate the improvement and redevelopment of housing stock
• Supply of housing more in line with qualitative and quantitative
levels of demand
• Reverse the negative socio-economic trends which cause decline of
housing market within a sub-region
• Restore choice and balance in housing markets which have become
increasingly ill-suited to the preferences and aspirations of existing
residents or potential incoming households (Cole and Nevin, 2004).

10. School of Environment
& Development
3. Neighbourhood Case studies at Manchester City Scale and in a HMR Area

11. School of Environment
& Development
Overall Average House Price – Average £

12. School of Environment
& Development
Neighbourhood Case Study SOAs within
HMR ADF Framework in Manchester

13. School of Environment
& Development
Collyhurst Neighbourhood
Victoria Park (Bellway Homes) from Silchester
Drive
View of New Build and Monsall Estate Tower
Blocks

14. School of Environment
& Development
Trinity Neighbourhood: Physical Improvement
1. Building Facelifts on Goodman Street 2. Street Scaping on Legrange Road
3. Alley-gating in Trinity Neighbourhood

15. School of Environment
& Development
Trinity Neighbourhood: New Build
1. New Build Family Homes
Nepaul Road
2. New Build Flats
Nepaul Road and Moston Lane

16. School of Environment
& Development
Trinity Neighbourhood: Demolition
1. Boarded up Void Property on
Cobden Street, Trinity Neighbourhood
3. Bute Street & CPO and Demolition Area (R&M Developments)
2. Bute Street & CPO and Demolition Area

17. School of Environment
& Development
4. Renewing Neighbourhoods: A Demand
Problem?

18. School of Environment
& Development
Inappropriate Supply of Housing?
• Poor quality mono-tenure housing (e.g. over supply of terraces)
• Restricting choice amongst those with varying incomes
• Quality of the stock; fit for purpose, habitable and not threatening to health
• Supply related more to the (slower changing) physical built environment

19. School of Environment
& Development
Low Demand Neighbourhoods
• Demand linked more to (faster changing) human social imperatives
• Low Demand: ‘Where housing is difficult or impossible to let or sell
because there are not enough households looking for homes’
(Bramley and Pawson, 2000).
• Characterised by a fall in house prices or rental values, widespread
vacancy, population transience and high levels of turnover, physical
degradation and an array of socio-economic problems.
• Some English cities (North and Midlands – formerly industrial) since
the early 1990s have been experiencing decline

20. School of Environment
& Development
Low Derived Demand
•Demand for one good or service occurs as a result of demand for another
•Example: Producers have a derived demand for employees (the skills and
productivity of employees is in demand by producers, rather than the
employees themselves )
•HMR: Cart before the horse?
‘Housing as derived demand has been ignored in the economic argument.
If you want to stimulate demand there is a need to get people into jobs but
applied with an improvement of housing stock‘ (A1_Academic, 2007).
Housing Market as a Driver
• Important to look at what the housing market is doing
• Access to finance / current housing offer and regeneration projections can
affect further investment

21. School of Environment
& Development
Housing Market Failure and Externalities
• HMR area that had signs of market failure with large concentrations of
void properties
• Costs of failure and the higher public costs that have to be met by poor
areas
‘Police costs are also higher in areas of high vacancy as there will always
be a correlation between vacancy rates and crime. The result may be a
misallocation of resources in these areas and in some instances these
costs are out of control…Market failure is a real issue irrespective of house
prices’ (C1_HMR Consultant, 2007).

22. School of Environment
& Development
Low Value Neighbourhoods: An Alternative Concept?
•Enables more meaningful analysis of relations between value and
neighbourhood characteristics
•Surrogate measure of market buoyancy as the values embody many
elements including both neighbourhood demand and supply
•Low value could extend to housing in the social and private rented sector,
as well as the privately owned stock

23. School of Environment
& Development
5. Rising Neighbourhood Values: Affordability and Overcrowding

24. School of Environment
& Development
Average House Price Change by Property Type in Case Study 1
(SOA E01005204) from 2003 onwards
£0
£20,000
£40,000
£60,000
£80,000
£100,000
£120,000
£140,000
Q
uarter
2003
Q
1
2003
Q
22003
Q
3
2003
Q
42004
Q
1
2004
Q
22004
Q
32004
Q
4
2005
Q
12005
Q
2
2005
Q
32005
Q
4
2006
Q
12006
Q
2
2006
Q
32006
Q
4
Quarter for Property Sales
AveragePropertyPrice
Overall
Detached
Semi
Terraced
Flat
New Build
Property Sales in Case 1 (SOA E01005204)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000
Q
2
2000
Q
3
2000
Q
4
2001
Q
1
2001
Q
2
2001
Q
3
2001
Q
4
2002
Q
1
2002
Q
2
2002
Q
3
2002
Q
4
2003
Q
1
2003
Q
2
2003
Q
3
2003
Q
4
2004
Q
1
2004
Q
2
2004
Q
3
2004
Q
4
2005
Q
1
2005
Q
2
2005
Q
3
2005
Q
4
2006
Q
1
2006
Q
2
2006
Q
3
2006
Q
4
Quarter of Property Sales
NumberofPropertySales
Overall Sales
Detached Sales
Semi-Detached Sales
Terraced Sales
Flat Sales
New Build Sales
Collyhurst :
Rising Values
and Aggregated
Value
Neighbourhood

25. School of Environment
& Development
Trinity :
Rising Values
and Aggregated
Value
Neighbourhood
Average Property Price per Quarter by Property Type for Case 2
(E01005207) from 2003 Onwards
£0
£20,000
£40,000
£60,000
£80,000
£100,000
£120,000
£140,000
£160,000
Quarter
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
2006
Quarter for Property Sales
AveragePropertySales
Price
Overall
Detached
Semi
Terraced
Flat
New Build
Property Sales for Case 2 (E01005207) from 2000 (Q2) Onwards
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000
Q
2
2000
Q
3
2000
Q
4
2001
Q
1
2001
Q
2
2001
Q
3
2001
Q
4
2002
Q
1
2002
Q
2
2002
Q
3
2002
Q
4
2003
Q
1
2003
Q
2
2003
Q
3
2003
Q
4
2004
Q
1
2004
Q
2
2004
Q
3
2004
Q
4
2005
Q
1
2005
Q
2
2005
Q
3
2005
Q
4
2006
Q
1
2006
Q
2
2006
Q
3
2006
Q
4
Quarter for Property Sales
NumberofPropertySales
Overall Sales
Detached Sales
Semi-Detached Sales
Terraced Sales
Flat Sales
New Build Sales

26. School of Environment
& Development
Masked Housing Values and Underlying Socio-Economic Problems
2. Overcrowding
•Interviewee testimony (Tenants and Residents Association Leader) that
higher rents demanded by landlords in the private-rented market had
precipitated a growing number of overcrowding of low income households
in multiply-occupied houses
•Premature to conclude whether multiple-occupancy will persist (e.g. the
labour market consequences of economic cycles in host and donor
countries, or fluctuations in exchange rates).
•Clustering of houses in multiple occupancy has significant implications for
the balance of household categories within a neighbourhood

27. School of Environment
& Development
6. Neighbourhood Mix and Social Inclusion in HMR
Neighbourhoods

28. School of Environment
& Development
Neighbourhood Mix
•Extent to which mixed communities have materialised in HMR areas is
difficult to gauge in the short period
•Argued by developer that the form of development engendered by HMR
is
having profound impact on the social character of some neighbourhoods
‘ buildings are designed so that you cannot recognise the difference
between public and privately purchased properties, or the difference
between one and two bedroom houses from three or four bedroom
properties…an essential ingredient is choice, allowing people to move
within the neighbourhood as incomes rise and move up the property
ladder’ (D1_Developer / HMR Board Member, 2007).

29. School of Environment
& Development
Social Cohesion and Inclusion
•Ethnic mix as an important feature for social cohesion
‘It has been difficult in some cases…where community cohesion has been
restricted with racial tensions. There have been plans to meet these
needs, for instance project planning for redevelopment is done in a way to
meet all types in the community’ (N1_CLG / HMR Leader, 2007)
•Social and economic mobility identified as a barrier to neighbourhood
social inclusion (e.g. decision-making for jobs).
‘The evidence is saying that thwarted mobility is not the problem as
people can just move or get work as there are jobs available. [But]
mobility is restricted because (a) people don’t move for low-paid short
term jobs, and (b) people could be supported in the informal sector. As a
result this makes thwarted mobility arguments difficult to look at and
research’ (P3_Professor / HMR Advisor, 2007)

30. School of Environment
& Development
7. Conclusion

31. School of Environment
& Development
• Apparent health of housing markets in some HMR neighbourhoods need to
be treated with a degree of caution as rising house prices do not indicate a
full or complete neighbourhood recovery and to function in a ‘normal’ way
• Rising aggregate value masks the persistence of lower values, and is
driven to a large extent by new build that is not always sensitive of
neighbourhood-wide recovery
• New build can impact on widening inequalities within a neighbourhood (E.g.
Affordability of existing residents – rents; but creating re-population?)
• Damaging side-effects, such as investors (e.g. private landlords) promoting
reduced emotional and psychological attachment to the neighbourhood
creating social cohesion issues and neighbourhood dysfunctionality
Conclusion