1. The report examines the impacts of climate change and community adaptation strategies in Western Nepal. 2. Key findings include increasing temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, more frequent droughts and floods negatively impacting agriculture, livestock, health, water resources and forests. 3. Communities have adopted adaptation strategies like alternative crops, improved livestock, water conservation, renewable energy to reduce their vulnerability.

1. Climate Change
Impacts and
Adaptation
Strategies by Poor
STUDY and Excluded
REPORT Communities in
Western Nepal:
A Comprehensive Study
of Banganga River Basin:
Arghakhanchi and
Kapilvastu, Nepal
BY:
DHRUBA GAUTAM
KRISHNA GAUTAM
DIPAK POUDEL
ActionAid Nepal
NATIONAL DISASTER RISK-REDCUTION December 2007
CENTRE NEPAL (NDRC NEPAL) Kathmandu
BANESHWOR, KATHMANDU

2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We would like to extend our sincere gratitude to all persons who contributed to
this study in many different ways: by sharing their experience, thoughts and
opinions, and by contributing time, advice and hospitality. Therefore, this report
has been possible because of the support of so many people personally and
professionally.
We are particularly indebted to community and CBO members of two VDCs
under two districts for their patience, co-operation and good understanding
without their support it would not have been possible to complete this study. We
were encouraged when people accepted our presence, answered our queries
passionately and made us internalize the practical difficulties of the area made by
the recent flood, landslides, droughts, cold wave, etc (all disaster hazards).
Therefore, we remain obliged to them.
We would like to thank Mr. Shyam Sundar Jnavaly, Sr. Theme Leader, EDM,
AAN for his valuable inputs in finalizing the study framework and technical as
well as managerial support throughout the study period. We wish to thank the
SSDC and Sahaj Nepal officials especially Mr. Krishna, Mr. Yadav and Mr.
Umesh for sharing their update information and situation at the ground. They
have been valuable resource persons and accompanied with us during the field
visits too. Similarly the excellent supports were provided by Indreni Rural
Development Centre (IRDC) in managing the community of Banganga basin for
excellent fieldwork.
We thank CRC officials, particularly Mr. Nanda Kandangwa, RC, for their
support in managing logistics doing field work. We have learnt many things
from school teachers, students, and other key informant about the changing
behaviours of the people with changing climatic conditions. The information
provided by these people was also extremely valuable. Their observations during
the field work were extremely valuable sources of information for us.
Thanks.
Dhruba Gautam Study Coordinator,
Krishna Gautam, Field Coordinator
Dipak Paudel, Technical Coordinator
National Disaster Risk-reduction Centre Nepal (NDRC-Nepal)
Baneshwor, Kathmandu, Nepal
December 2007

3. Acronyms
AAN : ActionAid Nepal
CBO : Community Based organization
CC : Climate Change
CFUG : Community Forest Users Group
COP : Conference of Party
DADO : District Agriculture Development Office
DoHM : Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
DRR : Disaster Risk Reduction
FGD : Focus Group Discussion
GO : Government Organization
GoN : Government of Nepal
ICS : Improved Cooking Stove
IPCC : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
KII : Key Informant Interview
KP : Kyoto Protocol
MoEST : Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology
MoPE : Ministry of Population and Environment
NAPA : National Adaptation Programme in Action
NGO : Non-governmental Organizations
NTNC : Nepal Trust for Nature Conservation
PVA : Participatory Vulnerability Analysis
ToR : Terms of Reference
UNDP : United Nations Development Programme
UNEP : United Nations Environmental Programme
UNFCCC : United Nations ….
USCSP : US Country Studies Program
VDC : Village Development committee
WUA : Water Users Association

4. Glossary of Local Nepali Terms
Baadh Flood
Bari Upland mostly used for maize and mustard cultivation
Bikashee Biew Chemical fertiliser
Chulo Cooking stove
Haat Local weekly market
Kathha Unit of land, 20 kathha equals to one bigha (1 bigha=0.67ha)
Khet Paddy land
Mausam Weather
Pala Harmful thick fog
Pesa Traditional occupation to run family livelihood
Prabidhik Technicians
Sanstha Institution /organization
Sukkha Droughts
Ubjani Production
4

5. Executive Summary
1. Background:
• The effect of heat trapping due to the increasing presence of green house
gases causes global warming and subsequent result of warming is known as
climate change. According to third Assessment Report of Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global average surface temperature has
increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C. Temperature rises beyond
2°C are likely to result in reduced crop yields and some ecosystems will be
irreversibly damaged. It will contribute to result in much more flooding in
low-lying areas with decline in food production, an increase in disease, and
the extinction of plants, animals, and entire ecosystems. Particularly, the poor
and most vulnerable people and the ecosystems in which they live and on
which they depend will bear the brunt of the impacts of climate change.
• Although Nepal’s total greenhouse gas emission share is negligible compared
to global community, Nepal has already encountered some of the negative
impacts of climate change such as quicker glacial melt and glacier retreat. The
climate changed induced natural hazards such as landslides, floods and
droughts have affected the livelihood of poor and excluded. Despite these
impacts, Government of Nepal is yet to make its way into country’s major
planning on climate change.
• The impacts of climate change and adaptive measures are yet not well
researched and documented. Given this context, Climate Change Impacts and
Adaptation Strategies by Poor and Excluded Communities in Western Nepal:
A Comprehensive Study of Banganga River Basin: Arghakhanchi and
Kapilvastu, Nepal was commissioned by ActionAid Nepal (AAN) with the
broader objective of identifying the ways the climate change has impacted the
poor and excluded and strategies communities have adopted to live with the
impacts of climate change.
2. Outline:
• The report is organized into seven sections. The first section provides the
scenario of climate change in global and national context and introduction of
Nepal and study area with the second section. The third section covers
objectives and methods while the climatic change trends in Nepal and study
area is discussed in the fourth section. The impact of climate change in
different sectors and adaptation strategies adopted by local people is
discussed in fifth section. Conclusion and recommendation is given in the
sixth section. The last section of the report presents the annexes.
3. Objectives:
• The overall objectives of the study are to identify how climate changes are
noticed or observed by poor and excluded communities over a period of time
5

6. particularly in the sectors like: agriculture, livestock, health, water, forest and
biodiversity, and look at the impacts and effects made by these changes in the
communities and their community based adaptation strategies.
4. Methodologies:
• A number of methods and techniques were used based on the type of
information required to obtain to achieve the objectives. As the broad
framework for analysis was to assess the status and situation on each of the
key sectors the Participatory Vulnerability Analysis (PVA) was the main
guiding tool to collect field level information. In order to broaden the ideas
and concept about the study, relevant reports and documents related to DRR,
climate change, climate change adaptation, and existing policy and strategy
were reviewed. Climate related data like temperatures and rainfall of the
relevant stations were collected from DoHM of GoN and analyzed. Several
round table interaction meetings were organized with stakeholders and
ActionAid Nepal to finalize the process, select the VDCs for studies.
Checklists and guide questions were used during transect walk, vulnerability
and hazard mappings exercise was conducted, time trend was analyzed for
disaster history review, Venn diagrams were prepared, seasonal calendar
developed and numerous focused group discussions held. Likewise,
information was collected from key informants including the government
stakeholders.
5. Climatic Change Trends in Nepal and the Study Area:
• Analysis of recorded temperature and precipitation data in Nepal are limited
due to availability of data for only last 30 years. Studies have indicated that
temperature in Nepal is increasing. The warming seems to be consistent and
continuous after the mid-1970s. It is stated that the average warming in
annual temperature between 1977 and 1994 was 0.06ºC/yr. The warming is
found to be more pronounced in the high altitude regions of Nepal such as
the middle Mountain and the high Himalaya, while the warming is
significantly lower or even lacking in the Tarai and Siwalik regions. Likewise,
rainfall is also increasing.
• Statistical analysis of the monthly data during 1971-2006 for the stations
Taulihawa in Kapilbastu and Khanchikot in Arghakhanchi and during 1977-
2006 for Pataki in Kapilbastu district reveals that monsoon rain for Patharkot
and Kanchikot is decreasing and extremely decreasing for Taulihawa station.
The data showed that the trend of monsoon rainfall was increasing in the
country but it was decreasing in the basin.
• In the recent years, people also have experienced unusual phenomenon like:
more thunderstorm but less rain, more wind, more mobility of clouds but less
rain. Elderly people during discussion opined the big thunderstorm without
rain is indicator of no potentiality of rainfall. People also have realized that
6

7. the duration of monsoon has also drastically decreased. Now, the rain starts
late and ends early. People used to use local knowledge for prediction of
possible rain and they used to plan for cultivation. But all those predictions
practices have started to fail now.
• In Kapilvastu, people shared that after the construction of Banganga barrage,
the problem of flooding and inundation in the riverside of Motipur and
Banganga/Kopuwa VDCs was increased. In the local people's experiences,
the cases of droughts are also increasing. Most of the droughts cases are
found when there is a need of rainwater. The experience of thick fog during
winter morning is also new phenomenon for local people. The fog now
remains for several weeks to months.
6. Climate Change, Its Impacts and Community Based Adaptation Strategies:
• Though people have poor knowledge on the technical matters of climate
change but they have shown several evidences, which demonstrate that they
have perceived, felt and experienced about its effects. The amount and
patterns of rain-fall, the frequency and extent of droughts, the trends of crop
failure due to emergence of new crop diseases, etc are some of the visible
impacts. Through the exercise of historical timeline, people have informed the
stories transferred from one generation to another about the changes of
climate and its impacts in local context. They sometimes have used the local
knowledge on the basis of position of clouds, wind flows, position of stars,
rainbow and with insects, pest and animal behaviour for the prediction of
weather but such predictions could not be completely relied upon. People
have linked that these are due to climate change.
• There are many evidences that show that how climate change is affecting
peoples' lives and livelihood. The rain pattern over the years is a live
experience. People have been facing longer and frequent droughts, erratic
rainfall, storms, thunderstorm and hailstone. As a result, crop failures are
common; the cases of landslide, flooding/inundation, and riverside erosion
are other phenomenon and further these are in increasing order. The spread
of new water and vector borne diseases are other impacts of climate change.
The most vulnerable ecological and socio-economic systems are those with
the greatest sensitivity to climate change and the least ability to adapt.
• Climate change has impacted agriculture in the study area and the people
have reported decreasing trends of crop production, more flowering and poor
fruiting in the fruits and vegetables, reduced production from on-farm
activities, explosion of pest and insect in crops, erosion of fertile top soil,
reduction in working hours for agriculture, shift to use hybrid seeds,
increasing workload of women and children and increasing trends of
seasonal migration as a result of climate change. Yet the adaptation strategies
of the affected people included their engagement in off-seasonal and
alternative crop varieties, establishment of dairy cooperative, vocational skills
7

8. building, accommodating in the crop growing season, initiation of
community based micro-credit programs and adoption of improved
agriculture practices, etc. Likewise, there has been reduction in grazing land,
high mortality of livestock, closure of shifting livestock grazing in the study
area. To adapt to these changes, people have started raising improved
varieties of livestock and reclaiming the degraded land along the riverbank.
• The respondents shared that these days, with the changing pattern of climatic
features, there have been different health problems. People have experience
clear heat and cold related illness, cardio vascular problems, vector borne
diseases like malaria, filaria, kala-azar, Japanese encephalitis, and dengue
caused by bacteria, virus, and pathogens like mosquitoes and ticks, as well as
diarrhoea, cholera and intoxication caused by biological and chemical
contaminants in water. Birth of abnormal children is also experienced these
days. People have been using mosquito nets to escape from the mosquito
bites and also have given consideration in drinking water.
• Lowering the level of ground water, defunct farmer managed irrigation
systems, threatening of the wetlands, etc are impacts observed in water
resources. People have started protecting watershed to retain the water
resources, rehabilitating traditional ponds/water bodies, promoting
afforestation and conservation programmes and taking alternative measures
to increase irrigation efficiency to cope with these impacts. Likewise, in the
forestry sector, local people have observed forest resources depletion, forest
resources affected from unidentified diseases, and even extinction of some
species like of NTFPs because of changing climate. In order to reduce the
impact to people, people shared that there have been initiatives for alternative
energy sue, plantation of fast growing trees including bamboo and scaling
community forest programmes. Because of the impact on forest resources,
biodiversity is also being affected. Bees, aquatic animals, and birds are worst
hit by the climate change. Habitat protection measures with awareness
generating activities were taken by the community people to reduce the
impact on biodiversity.
7. Remarks:
• It has been observed from this study that climate change is evident in Nepal
and the impacts can be visualized. Therefore, concrete actions are required on
the part of all stakeholders. Based on the overall findings discussed above, the
study recommends different actions to community, local NGOs, and to AAN
which is carrying our climate change adaptation initiatives.
• The communities should be mobilized for the conservation of watershed to
protect the water resources. There is need to promote afforestation and
conservation. Adoption of renewable energy technologies like bio-gas, solar
energy, etc is needed to reduce the pressure on forest resources. In the
downstream, communities should be encouraged to make safer homes and
8

9. shelter, management of boats, raised roads and tube wells to reduce the
impact of flood. As there are ample opportunities for raising improved
varieties of livestock, the promotion of dairy cooperative could be one of the
income generation activities for the local people. With this, there should be
diverse agriculture that will help communities to adapt to the impacts of
climate change.
• Local NGOs and partner NGOs of AAN should prepare suitable strategies
and approaches for community based adaptation practices to climate change
in order build awareness of people in large scale. Farmers should be
encouraged to adopt alternative varieties like drought and flood resistance
crops to grow more and to secure food and livelihood in difficult time with
insurance at the time of piloting these actions. There is a need to establish
community based early warning system as a part of preparedness through
good communication and forecasting.
• As the climate change adaptation is relatively new area for local partner
NGOs, there is a need of advance capacity building initiatives on science and
art of climate change. These could be training, exposures and cross visits.
Policy advocacy with debates and discourses on existing policies related to
land, water, forest, disaster, energy etc and their implication on climate
change is necessary by organizing different meetings and forums. There is a
need to lead the advocacy for the formulation of policy related to climate
change adaptation.
9

10. Table of Content
Acknowledgements
Acronyms
Glossary of local Nepali Term
Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Background 12
1.1 Background 12
1.2 Climate Change in the Nepal's Context 14
1.3 Plans and Policy Initiation for Environment and Climate Change Issues 14
Chapter 2: Nepal and the study area 19
2.1 Nepal 19
2.2 Socio-economic profiles of study area 19
2.2.1 Population 20
2.2.2 Caste composition 20
2.2.3 Language 20
2.2.4 Livelihood pattern 20
2.2.5 Food sufficiency status 21
2.2.6 Seasonal migration pattern 21
2.2.6 Land tenure system 22
2.3 Weather Characteristics of River Basin 23
Chapter 3: Objectives, Methods and Outline of Report 25
3.1 Objectives of the study 25
3.2 Methodology used 25
3.2.1 Review of Relevant literature and Information 25
3.2.2 Round table discussion 26
3.2.3 Building Rapport with local level stakeholders 26
3.2.4 Modality of the selection of VDCs 26
3.2.5 Design Instruments, Checklist and Guide Questions 26
3.2.6 PVA at Community Level 27
3.2 7 Meeting with Government Stakeholders 31
3.2.8 Reporting back to the Communities 31
3.2.9 Analysis the Vulnerabilities 31
3.3 Outline of the report 32
Chapter 4: Climatic Change Trends in Nepal and the Study Area 33
4.1 Temperature 33
4.2 Precipitation 34
4.3 Changes in Temperature and Precipitation 37
10

11. 4.4 Unpredictable weather events 37
4.4.1 Flood 38
4.4.2 Droughts 40
4.4.3 Thick fog (pala) 41
Chapter 5: Climate Change, Its Impacts and Adaptation Strategies 43
5.1 Agriculture 44
5.1.1 Impacts of climate change on Agriculture 45
5.1.2 Adaptation strategies 50
5.2. Animal Husbandry 52
5.2.1 Impact of Climate Change in Animal Husbandry 52
5.2.2 Adaptation strategies 54
5.3 Human Health 54
5.3.1 Impact of climate change on Human Health 56
5.3.2 Adaptation strategies 59
5.4 Water Resources 59
5.4.1 Impact of climate change in Water Resources 60
5.4.2 Adaptation strategies 61
5.5 Forest Resources 62
5.5.1 Impact of climate change on Forest Resources 63
5.5.2 Adaptation strategies 65
5.6 Biodiversity 66
5.6.1 Impact of Climate Change in Biodiversity 67
5.6.1 Adaptations strategies 68
Chapter 6: Conclusion and Recommendations 69
6.1 Conclusion 69
6.2 Recommendation 70
6.2.1 Community 71
6.2.2 PNGOs 72
6.2.3 AAN 72
References 74
Annex-1: Climatic Assessment of Study Area 78
11

12. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies by Poor and Excluded
Communities in Western Nepal:
A Comprehensive Study of Banganga River Basin: Arghakhanchi and Kapilvastu,
Nepal
Chapter 1
Background
The first chapter introduces climate change, the underlying causes and subsequent
impacts that local people have experienced over the years followed by the impacts of
climate change in people's lives and livelihood in the global context. In the later section
of this chapter, climate change in the Nepal's context is discussed. In this section, more
emphasis is given to explain how different groups of people of Nepal have experienced
the impacts of climate change with different cases and forms. Towards the end, a policy
review on environment and climate change is presented.
1.1 Background
Climate refers to the average weather and represents the state of the climate system
over a given time period. Due to natural variability or as a result of human
interventions, there is increase in the
Box 1: Vulnerability and its characteristics
emission of the greenhouse gases reflecting Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is
variation of the mean state of weather susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse
variables including temperature, effects of climate change, including climate
variability and extremes. In other words,
precipitation and wind (Orindi and Eriksen, vulnerability is a ‘set of conditions determined by
2005). The effect of heat trapping due to the physical, social, economic and environmental
increasing presence of these gases is factors or processes which increase the
susceptibility of a community to the impact of
understood as greenhouse effect which hazards,’ (The Hyogo Framework 2005-2015,
causes global warming and subsequent result adopted by the UN at the World Conference on
of warming is known as climate change. Disasters in 2005). It is a function of the character,
magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation
to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its
There are many evidences of climate change adaptive capacity. Among many, flood hazards as
that are being experienced by many people an impact of climate change, damages the
infrastructures, erodes the valuable agriculture land
especially the poor and excluded around the and losses of thousands of lives and livestock.
world in different forms. According to third
Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global
average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C. There
is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years
is attributable to human activities. The global average surface temperature is expected
to increase by 1.4°C to 5.8°C by 2100, depending largely on the scale of fossil-fuel
burning. IPCC has determined that even if we take steps to reduce our greenhouse gas
12

13. emissions now, the globe could warm up at a rate faster than it has in the past 10,000
years (CEN).
The effects of climate changes are multifaceted. Past and current emissions mean that an
increase in temperature of 1°C to 1.5°C is inevitable. Yet the increase of 0.6°C that has
already occurred is having a severe impact on global ecosystems and especially on poor
people. To avoid the most serious impact of global warming and climate change, the
global mean temperature should be limited to a 2°C increase above pre-industrial levels
(UK Government, 2003). Temperature rises beyond 2°C are likely to result in reduced
crop yields in most tropical, sub-tropical, and mid-latitude regions and some
ecosystems will be irreversibly damaged or lost. It will contribute to result in much
more flooding in low-lying areas with decline in food production, an increase in
disease, and the extinction of plants, animals, and entire ecosystems (IPCC, 2007).
Further, as a result of human activities, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
are rising and with them, global temperatures. In addition to increases in temperature,
global warming results in more extreme weather patterns: more rain, longer dry spells,
stronger and more violent storms, more fires, and the spread of tropical diseases. As
climate change pushes the world towards more extreme weather, more and more
people will be exposed to recurrent disasters during their lives. IPCC (2007) predicted
that there will be a widespread increase in the risk of flooding for many human
settlements. Flooding and landslides, the unavoidable results of climate change, pose
the most widespread direct risk to human settlements. It’s estimated that by 2025 over
half of all people living in developing countries will be highly vulnerable to floods and
storms. Food, health, water and energy, the building blocks of livelihoods may face
many of the threats from, and responses to, global warming in the days to come.
Without stopping the effects of global warming, it is clear that the viability of millions
of people’s lives and livelihoods will be undermined; without significant new resources,
millions of others won’t be able to adapt to changes that are already happening.
Particularly, the poor and most vulnerable people and the ecosystems in which they
live and on which they depend will bear the brunt of the impacts of climate change. In
both developing and developed countries, the impact of climate change can be much
greater for indigenous communities who rely most directly on their immediate
environments for subsistence and livelihood often living in the more remote and
ecologically fragile zone (UNFCCC, 2004). World Bank (2003) also mentioned that all
countries are vulnerable to climate change but the poorest countries and the poorest
people within them are most vulnerable. Similarly, a study carried out by Regmi and
Adhikari (2007) found that the impact of global warming is already being felt by the
most vulnerable-the world’s poorest people and countries and its impact is severe on
Nepal because of the geographical and climatic conditions, high dependence on natural
resources and lack of resources to cope with the changing climate. Climate change is
increasingly recognized as among the greatest challenges human society will face over
13

14. the coming century. While it will affect everything from basic ecosystem processes to
the spread of disease, some of the greatest impacts are anticipated to occur due to
increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, i.e. storms, floods,
droughts, etc.
Furthermore, the incidence and economic impact of climate related disasters has been
increasing over recent decades (World Meteorological Organisation, Co-operative
Programme on Water and Climate et al., 2006). As the Hyogo framework for Disaster
Risk Reduction (DRR) highlights, DRR is essential if the world is to succeed in reaching
the Millennium Development Goals (ISDR, 2005). Conceptually, reducing the risk of
disasters is closely associated to adaptation processes. What makes people vulnerable?
To most people today, this is an everyday question that is as simple as it is complex.
1.2 Climate Change in the Nepal's Context
Although Nepal’s total greenhouse gas emission share is negligible compared to global
community, Nepal has already encountered some of the negative impacts of climate
change. Studies made by Department of Hydrology and Meteorology show that
average temperature in Nepal is increasing approximately 0.06 degrees Celsius per
year. The temperature in the Himalayas, however, is increasing at a faster rate, which is
resulting serious impacts on the glacial lakes-the sources of water for Nepal. Many
glaciers are retreating at a faster rate and rapidly melting glaciers means more seasonal
variation in river flow resulting more floods and droughts in the country. Because
Nepal has a complex, mountainous landscape, floods and landslides have also become
more frequent and severe. The high dependence on natural resources for livelihood and
inadequate resources to cope with are other reasons. These factors collectively
contribute to result the vulnerable situation of the rural poor and excluded.
About 85.8 percent of the total population reside in rural areas of Nepal and meet their
energy demand from biomass combustion, particularly firewood, while about 15
percent of the total population living in urban areas is exposed to different levels of
concentration of gases, including greenhouse gases. The Himalayas constitute a
threatened ecosystem in the world. Himalayas in Nepal are geologically young and
fragile and are vulnerable to even insignificant changes in the climatic system. This
system is threatened through anthropogenic activities such as farming practices and
natural resource consumption patterns (Regmi and Adhikari, 2007).
The climate induced natural hazards such as landslides, floods and droughts affect the
livelihood of poor and excluded (Gautam et al, 2007). Analysis of existing temperature
records already shows an increasing trend in Nepal. This warming has been more
pronounced in the middle mountain and the high Himalayas than in the lower Tarai1
1 It is marshy ground or meadow. It is the flat area lying to the south of the Churia range and extending to the Indian boarder.
Geology and soil composition consists of recent alluvial plain, boulders, gravel sands, clay and fine loamy deep soils.
14

15. and Siwalik2. But its effects are seen in the low lying area, i.e. the Tarai also. The analysis
of climate data from four recording stations representing inner Tarai, mid mountains for
the periods of early 1970s to 2000 and one for High Mountain for the period 1988 to
2000 has shown that there has been a clear warming trend in Nepal (Chaulagain, 2006).
A number of possible climate change-related impacts on agriculture, horticulture,
livestock, human health, water resources, forest resources and bio-diversity affecting
the poor's livelihoods and the environment (Gautam et al, 2007).
Nepal signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) in Rio de Janeiro in June 12, 1992 and ratified it on May 2, 1994. It has been
regularly participating in conference of parties (COPs) and other subsidiary meetings
and it also became party of Kyoto Protocol by submitting its instrument of Accession.
So far, Nepal does not have any specific policies on climate change (more of which is
discussed later); but it has some policies and programs to promote clean energy and
energy efficiency. It is therefore, there is a need of comprehensive, multilateral response
to climate change.
In Nepal, the impact of climate change is not experienced in the same manner by the
different groups of people. The poor communities are at the hardest hit by the climate
change. In the rural area of Nepal, the livelihood of the poor and excluded is entirely
dependent upon agriculture, livestock, water, forest resources and biodiversity
resources. The changes in these sectors as a result of climate change have affected
directly lives and livelihood of these rural poor. Particularly, women are more
vulnerable due to climate change. Similar findings are recorded from studies carried out
by Mitchell et al (2007) and Gautam et al (2007). According to these studies, climate
change is affecting everybody, regardless of caste, ethnicity, sex, race or level of income
but women and poor are at the worst hit. Women make up for 70% of the world’s poor.
They have less access to financial resources, land, education, health and other basic
rights than men, and are seldom involved in decision making processes. They are,
therefore, less able to cope with the impact of climate change and are less able to adapt.
The same studies also found that women in poor areas have started to adapt to a
changing climate and can clearly articulate what they need to secure and sustain their
livelihoods more effectively. Their priorities include a safe place to live and store their
harvest and livestock during the monsoon season, better access to services such as
agricultural extension, training and information about adaptation strategies and
livelihood alternatives, and access to resources to implement effective strategies and
overcome constraints. Among the many areas, the impacts of climate change are clearly
observed by poor and excluded on agriculture, livestock, human health, water, forest
resources and biodiversity.
2 The first range arising north of the Indo-gangetic plain, up to 1000 m, geology and soil composition consists of clay stone,
sandstone, conglomerate and loamy skeletal. The term Siwaliks is used throughout the Himalayan region. Churia (or chure) is a
Nepali word for Siwalik range. Locally, the word chure is used to describe a single hill crest, and Churia to describe a group or a
range of hill crests
15

16. 1.3 Plans and Policy Initiation by Nepal for Environment and Climate Change Issues
Various proven studies including Regmi and Adhikari (2007) suggest that Nepal has
started some initiative for environmental protection and management since 1990s. The
debates on the issues of climate change have even been started. The following sections
highlighted some of the initiatives that Nepal has taken for environmental and climate
change sectors.
• The Eighth Plan ((1992-1997): During this period, two major works were carried
out by the then HMG/Nepal. These included the formulation of enactment of
Environment Protection Act (1996) and Promulgation of Environment and
Protection Regulations (1997) which helped to start the debate and discourse in
environmental issues.
• The Ninth-Plan (1997-2002): The plan had prioritized agriculture,
industrialization and tourism development through environment management
intending to contribute to poverty reduction.
• The Tenth-Plan (2002-2007): The plan acknowledged the importance of weather
for economic performance but was almost silence in climate risks issues.
• Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF): This framework included
some ideas on impacts of weather and climate. (Shardul et al, 2003) finds that it
discusses vector-borne disease control and emergency preparedness and disaster
management, mitigation of floods and erosion in cultivated areas, and water
harvesting to provide year-round water supply for irrigation. In addition to
these, MTEF paid some attention on climate-related risks. But the framework is
almost unspoken about relation of hydropower plants due to the variability in
runoff, floods (including GLOFS), and sedimentation. The same situation was
also observed in road sector. It did not discuss flood and landslide risks, water
supply and sanitation, irrigation sectors due to climate risks.
• The National Conservation Strategy (NCS): NCS was a major step to
systematically develop an appropriate strategy for environment and resources
conservation in Nepal.
• Nepal Environmental Policy and Action Plan (NEPAP): After the UN
Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio, HMG/N
established the Environmental Protection Council (EPC) under the chairmanship
of the Prime Minister in 1992. Thereafter, NEPAP 1993 was introduced to carry
out sustainable management of natural resources; to address the issues of
population, health and sanitation, and poverty alleviation; to safeguard national
heritage; to mitigate adverse environmental impact and to support in legislation,
institutions, education and public awareness.
• United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD): Nepal
signed the International Convention to Combat Desertification and ratified it in
1996. Nepal took active part in the UN Conference on Desertification (1977), and
in the formulation of the UN Plan of Action to combat desertification for
addressing impacts of desertification, land degradation, and climate change in an
16

17. integrated way. Many of the responses to desertification, such as integrated
watershed management and community-based soil and water management,
would also enhance Nepal’s resilience to disasters and adaptive capacity to
climate change.
• Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD): Nepal signed the CBD in 1992, and
ratified it in 1993. The Country’s Biodiversity Strategy (2002) was prepared
under the UNDP/GEF Biodiversity Conservation Project. It listed several
climate-related risks, such as flooding and sedimentation, as threats to
biodiversity.
• World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD): Nepal’s National
Assessment Report for the WSSD (2002) recognized the links between climatic
circumstances and land degradation, erosion and landslides. It also recognized
the increase in landslide risks due to the effects of paddy cultivation and
livestock grazing in the hills and mountains. However, adaptation to climate
change was not specifically addressed.
• Sustainable Development Agenda for Nepal (SDAN): The SDAN listed Nepal’s
vulnerability to climate change, natural disasters and environmental degradation
among the constraints facing Nepal’s sustainable development. Though it did
not mention climate change explicitly, there was a specific section on protection
of the atmosphere.
• National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA): Nepal has prepared the
project document to initiate the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA)
with participation from a multi-disciplinary team, coordinated by Ministry of
Environment, science and Technology (MoEST).
• Major Policies of Nepal in Environmental Sectors: National Wetlands Policy
(2003), National Biodiversity Strategy (2002), Master Plan for the forestry sector
(1988), National Parks & Wildlife Conservation Act (1973), Forest Act (2049),
Forest Regulation (2051), Lake Protection Act (2053), Environmental Protection
Regulation (2054), Buffer Zone Regulation (2052), Convention on Biological
Diversity (1992), Aquatic Animals Protection Act (1961), Soil and Watershed
Conservation Act (1982), Water Resources Act (1992), Environment Protection
Act (1996), Environment Protection Rules (1997), and Ozone Depleting Substance
Consumption (Control) Rules, 2001 are the major policies in Nepal with the
objective of maintaining a clean and healthy environment by minimizing adverse
impacts in the pursuit of economic development.
• Local Self-Governance Act, 1998: It empowered the local bodies such as DDC,
VDC and the municipalities by outlining their environmental functions
comprising of local-level planning of the environment, forest and bio-diversity
conservation and use, and pollution control etc.
• National Agricultural Policy 2004: It emphasized to increase productivity rate
and to protect and promote natural resources to utilize them in the interest of
farmers.
17

18. Among the country’s global environmental commitments, climate change is yet to be
internalized by Government of Nepal (GoN). The climate change has yet to make its
way into country’s major planning documents. It has also been left out of the Nepal
Environment Policy and Action Plan. At the national level, meanwhile, Nepal has no
specific policy documents dealing with climate change. The preparation of the NAPA is
the first official initiative for mainstreaming adaptation into national policies and
actions for addressing adverse impacts of climate change and reducing vulnerability to
climate stimuli including extreme events. Nepal has prepared the project document to
initiate the NAPA with participation from a multi-disciplinary team, coordinated by
Ministry of Environment, Science, and Technology-MoEST (Alam, 2004).
18

19. Chapter 2
Nepal and the study area
This chapter is broadly categorized into three parts. Nepal’s introduction with its
different ecological regions is discussed in the first section followed by the socio
economic profiles of the study area. In the third section, a brief introduction on weather
characteristics of Banganga river basin has been discussed.
2.1 Nepal
Nepal is a land-locked country located in South Asia between India and China. It is
situated between latitudes of 26022' to 30027' north and between longitudes of 8004' to
88012' east. The east-west length of the country is about 800 km, and the average north-
south width is 140 km. Within the Box 1: Description of Ecological Regions of Nepal
147,181 km2 area of the country, A. Tarai: This is the southern part of Indo-Gangetic plain. It
physiographic regions range from extends nearly 800 km from east to west and about 30-40 km
from north to south. The average elevation is below 750 m. It
tropical forests in the south to the also covers Bhavar and Inner Tarai. The temperate is usually
snowy Himalayas in the north. high.
Nepal has a very diverse B. Siwalik: It is commonly called as Churia. Its elevation
ranges from 700 to 1,500 m. Due to its poor geology as a result
environment resulting from its of loose friable nature and extensive deforestation in past
impressive topography (please refer decades, landslides are the common phenomenon which
box 1). A cross-section of the country caused large sedimentation in the rivers that passes from
Churia. The temperate is moderate.
reveals that the topography C. Middle Mountain: It is also popularly termed as
generally progresses from altitudes Mahabharat. Its elevation is ranges from 1,500 to 2,700 m.
of less than 100 m in the southern These mountains are the first great barrier to monsoon clouds
and the highest precipitation occurs on the southern slope of
Tarai plain, up to more than 8,848m this range. The climate is moderate in this region.
peaks in the north. It has extreme D. High Mountains: High Mountains range from 2,200 to
spatial climatic variation – from a 4,000 m. This region consists of phyllite, schists and quartzite
rocks, and the soil is generally shallow and resistant to
tropical to arctic climate with a span weathering. The climate is cool.
of about 200 km. E. High Himalaya: Ranges from 4,000 to above 8,000 m
dominate the High Himalaya. The climate is of alpine type and
the snowline lies at 5,000 m in the east and at 4,000 m in the
Nepal has five ecological regions viz west. The area lying to the north of the main Himalayan range
Tarai, Siwalik, Middle Mountain, is the Trans-Himalayan region, which restricts the entry of
High Mountains and High Himalaya monsoon moisture and therefore the region has a dry desert-
like climate.
(please refer to box 1). This study only
covers two ecological regions i.e. Tarai and Siwalik.
2.2 Socio-economic profiles of study area
This study was commissioned in Banganga River basin of Arghakhanchi and
Kapilvastu districts of Western Development Region of Nepal. This study includes a
total of 6 Village Development Committee (VDCs). Subarnakhal and Simalpani VDCs
were selected from Arghakhanchi while Motipur, Banganga, Kopuwa and Niglihawa
VDCs were chosen from Kapilvastu. Out of the six VDCs under study, two are in the
upper catchments whereas four are in the lower catchments of the Banganga River
19

20. Basin. The VDCs selected from Arghakhanchi fall in Siwalik region while the VDCs
from Kapilvastu fall in Tarai region. The climatic conditions are hot tropical (sometimes
temperature reaching 420C to temperate.
Table 1: Population by VDCs
VDCs Total Population
2.2.1 Population HHs Male Female Total
The total number of HHs in the study VDCs Subarnkhal 585 1539 1710 3249
is 8,930 and average HHs size is 5.6. The Simalpani 1080 3023 3120 6143
population of study VDCs is 50,811 in which Motipur 2048 5312 5561 10875
Banganga 1942 5252 5438 10690
male and female population is 24,893 and Kopuwa 1661 4773 5005 9778
25,916 respectively. The VDC wise total HHs Niglihawa 1614 4994 5082 10076
with gender disaggregated population is Total 8930 24893 25916 50811
Source: CBS, 2001
given in table 1.
2.2.2 Caste composition
The caste composition in the Table 2: Major Cluster and Caste by VDCs
study area includes Brahmin, District VDCs Clusters Dominant
caste groups
Chhetri, Dalit, Tharu, Rana, Subarnkhal Chhetri Tole Brahmin, Chhetri
khanchi
Magar, Tarai non-dalit3, Mager tole Magers
Argha
Tarai-dalit4 and Mushlim. In Simalpani Simalpani Brahmin, Chhetri
Arghakhanchi, Brahmin, Pawora Magers
Motipur Balapur Hill migrants
Chhetri, Dalit, Rana, Magar Gheruwa Tharu
are in majority whereas Tharu Banganga Uptaha Hill migrants
and hill migrants Brahmin Sukumbasi Tole Tharu
Kapilvastu
Kopuwa Loharibagiya Hill migrants
and Chhetri in are in majority
Bankasiya Tharu
in Kapilvastu (Please refer table Niglihawa Jarlaiya Tarai caste people
2). Harnampur Tharu
Source: Field Study, 2007
2.2.3 Language
Nepali language is mostly
Table 3: Means of Livelihood in Studied VDCs
spoken in Arghakhanchi while VDCs Sources of livelihood (in percentage)
Tharu is the major language Agriculture Seasonal Service Business
spoken in Kapilvastu. Apart /livestock labour
from Nepali language, some Subarnkhal 86 6 5 3
Simalpani 91 6 2 1
people use their mother tongue
Motipur 78 4 9 9
within their families and
Banganga 72 5 12 11
societies. Kopuwa 76 6 10 8
Niglihawa 81 5 6 8
2.2.4 Livelihood pattern AVR % 80.6 5.3 7.3 6.6
The livelihood of majority of Source: FGDs, 2007
the population depends upon
3 Tarai Non Dalit includes Maurya, Yadav, Thakur, Mishra, Rad/ Kurmi, Gupta, Gosain, Kumhal, Kandu, Gadariya, Sahani/
Mahi/ Godiya, Sonar, Mali, Bhujwa.
4
Tarai Dalit includes Bhangi, Pasi, Luniya, Dhobi, Lohar, Bishwakarma, Baskhor, Chamar, Badhahi, Bahi, Bari, Khatik,
Kalwar and Gaddi.
20

21. agriculture/livestock (80.6%) followed by seasonal labour (5.3%) and GOs and NGOs
services (7.3%) and business (6.6%). The VDC wise means of livelihood is given in Table
3.
Majority of the people depend upon agriculture and livestock to run their livelihood.
Seasonal labour, services and business are other sources of livelihood.
2.2.5 Food sufficiency status
The level of food sufficiency is very miserable. In an average, only 23% HHs have food
sufficiency for the year round and 18% HHs
have no food sufficiency even for 2 months Table 4: Well-being ranking
VDCs Food sufficiency months (in %)
(Please refer table 4). The food sufficiency
12 and 6-11 2-5 > 2
months are decreasing with the increasing more
flooding and inundation problem. The level of Subarnkhal 15 16 43 26
food sufficiency is worst among the farmers Simalpani 17 21 44 18
Motipur 28 34 24 16
who reside along the Banganga riverbank Banganga 30 36 28 6
because of increasing events of flood every Kopuwa 26 30 27 17
year. Niglihawa 22 28 23 27
23 27.5 31.5 18.3
Source: Field Study, 2007
2.2.6 Seasonal migration pattern
In search of alternative employment opportunities many people mostly youth are
forced to go outside the village, mostly nearby cities within Nepal and India, leaving
women, children and elderly people at home alone. In such a situation, left over people
are becoming further vulnerable from disaster because of their poor coping capacities.
Seasonal migration normally peaks during November to January, after harvesting of the
paddy fields and broadcasting of the winter crop mostly wheat, mustard and maize.
Some go even early before the paddy plantation. As far as possible, male family
members opt to stay at home to attend to rebuilding and securing their housing before
the seasonal migration (Marcus Moench and Ajaya Dixit, 2007).
People started to migrate seasonally in Table 5: Trends of seasonal migration by VDCs
seeking alternative income source VDCs Seasonal migration (in percentage)
> 2 1-2 Only one Occasionally
since the cases of hazards are in Yrs Yrs season
increasing trends. It was also observed Subarnkhal 12 35 45 8
that seasonal migration is far and Simalpani 8 37 49 6
Motipur 3 56 32 7
wide. In every HH, one or more family Banganga 7 49 28 16
members are away for earning some Kopuwa 14 43 34 7
income during some period of the year Niglihawa 4 16 62 18
(please refer table 5). The income secures AVR % 8 40 42 10
Source: Field Study, 2007
a certain level and therewith food
security but the earning even does not become sufficient to pay back loan and to run the
family and house reconstruction (ibid). The main reasons for the seasonal migration as
shared by the community are as follows:
21

22. • Flooding, inundation and sedimentation cause the failure of crop production.
• With the population pressure, land is fragmented. The small plot of land is not
sufficient to produce adequate grains for the family.
• Inadequate opportunities of on-farm and off farm labour within the village.
• Loss of livestock due to out break of diseases.
• Low interest in agriculture due to continuous distress and trauma from
landslide, flood, and sedimentation.
Though people use indigenous knowledge about the flood forecasting, but they are not
able to escape the impacts of flood always. With several cloudbursts in the upper
catchments, people assumed there is a possibility of heavy rain. With this other
precautionary measures are taken.
2.2.6 Land tenure system
The land tenure system includes the categories of farmers in terms of having their own
land; own land plus sharecropping, landless plus sharecropping, and landless plus
rented others land, etc. The overall scenario of the land tenure system by VDCs is given
in table 6.
Table 6: Land tenure system by VDCs
VDCs Land tenure system (in percentage)
Own land Own land plus Landless plus Landless plus rented others
sharecropping sharecropping land
Subarnkhal 88 12 0 0
Simalpani 81 11 6 2
Motipur 72 16 7 5
Banganga 74 16 6 4
Kopuwa 63 15 15 7
Niglihawa 62 19 16 3
AVG % 73 15 8.5 3.5
Source: Field Study, 2007
From the table, it is clear that about 73% families cultivate their own land by
themselves. Likewise, 15% families run their livelihood by cultivating their own land
along with cultivate others land by sharecropping, and so forth.
2.3 Weather Characteristics of River Basin
Banganga river basin is an umbrella in shape and is extended from the north of the
East-west Highway to trans-boundary region of Indo-Nepal in the south. It extends in
between 270 41’ 30” to 270 54’ 07” North latitude and 800 04’ 22” to 800 18’ 56” East
longitudes.
Most of its part extends over the east-south part of Arghakhanchi district. The southern
depositional zone is called fan (Bhavar/inner Tarai) and it lies in northern side of
22

23. Kapilbastu. The total area of the basin is about 210 Km2, out of which around 85% lies in
the hill slope and the valley and the rest in fan and Tarai region (Please refer the map 1).
The altitude of basin varies from 125m in the south to 2256 m in the north. The average
slope of the basin is 28o. The basin has high potential to erosion and mass wasting varies
from place to place (Ghimire, 2001). The Banganga River and Dhunger Khola and their
tributaries are the major river draining in the Banganga basin. The Banganga River
originates from the southern slope of the Mahabharat Range in the northwest and flows
towards the south and then towards the east and join with Dhungre khola flowing from
southern slope of the Mahabharat Range in north east side. The average drainage
density of the basin is 3.8 km/km2.
A study carried out in 2001 shows that the agricultural land is increased by 85% from
1954 to 1990 whereas the forest land is decreased by 13.25% in the basin (Ghimire, 2001).
This massive
Map 1: Location Map of the Banganga River Basin
alteration in
cultivated land and
forest coverage Location
Banganga watershed
N
reflects into adverse S
#
Badachour
Jaluke
S
#
Ghartisara
impacts on the
S
# S
#
Pakri Khola
S
#
Amja
S
#
Thada S
# Rajausa
S
#
hydrological and
Mandre S
#
S
#
S
#
Kudapani
Subarnakhal Halde
S
#
Bahune Khola S
# S
#
S
# Ghorli_Khola Simle
Malarani
environmental
S
#
S
# Bharatpur Patuwachour
Bhedamare S
#
Dangre S
#
S
#
processes in the
Bahunkharka S
#
Neta_kharka S
#
Tallo Gangakhola S
#
Bhakari Dhunga
S
#
Panidanda
basin.
S
#
S
#
Khursane Sattyawati
S
# S
#
Simalpani Gandi
S
#
Karechuli S
#
Dhungri Kholagau
The distribution of Nepal
soil and rock types S
#
Boundary
that determines the
Pawara
Rivers or streams
Trails
potential of the S
# Village
hazards
geologically is S
#
Udayapur 2 0
Scale
2 4 Kilometers
shown in the table
S
#
Nanda_Nagar
S
#
S
# S
#
Logai Bairiya
7. Map 1 Source: Topsheets, scale 1:25,000; Topographical Survey Department, 1993
The VDCs of the lower catchments are suffering from several water induced disasters
like flood, inundation, and epidemic whereas landslides and bush fires are other
hazards in the upper catchments. Monsoon rainfall is the primary cause of flooding.
23

24. Table 7: Rock and soil types in the watershed
Rock or soil types Area (ha) Percentage
Alluvial fans, talus, colluviums 1133.2 5.5
Alluvium deposited or reworked by rivers 1774.85 8.4
Upper Siwaliks 1091.66 5.3
Middle Siwaliks 5707.35 27.5
Lower Siwaliks 4882.67 23.6
Bhaiskotta khola Sand stone and Shale 2424.29 11.7
Black and Carboneous shale 214.68 1.0
Ridhhkhola-Dhatibang Dolomities 932.45 9.3
Supa Khola Purpule shale 1602.03 7.7
Total 20733.18 100
Source: Aryal (1978)
24

25. Chapter 3
Objectives, Methods and Outline of Report
This chapter briefly discusses the overall objective of the study and the methodology
used during its different phases. The chapter later gives the general outline of the
report.
3.1 Objectives of the study
The overall objectives of the study are to:
• Identify how climate changes are noticed or observed by poor and excluded
communities over a period of time particularly in the sectors like: agriculture,
livestock, health, water, forest and biodiversity, and
• Look at the impacts and effects made by these changes in the communities and
their community based adaptation strategies.
3.2 Methodology used
The broad framework for analysis was to assess the status and situation on each of the
key areas outlined in the terms of reference. The Participatory Vulnerability Analysis
(PVA) was the main guiding tool to collect field level information.
3.2.1 Review of Relevant literature and Information
In order to broaden the ideas and concept about the study, relevant reports and
documents were reviewed. In addition to these, study reports, reports of other
organizations related to DRR, climate change, climate change adaptation, and existing
policy and strategy related to DRR were also reviewed to understand the issues and
concerns of risks and vulnerabilities.
Consultation meeting with Women in
As part of the review of secondary Upstream VDCs
information collection, climatic related data
like temperatures and rainfall of the relevant
stations within the basin were collected from
DoHM of GoN. A very less number of
stations lie in the basins. Stations of Index are
0715 at 1760 amsl in Arghakhanchi district,
0721 at 200m amsl and 0716 at 90m amsl were
chosen for Kapilvastu for this study.
The length of records of rainfall data from
these stations is good in climatic analysis because it insufficient to make such climatic
analysis if the data availability is for less than 30 years, But a length of record of
temperature in climatic station (Index 0721) is not significant for the climatic analysis;
since it is only available for 20 years. The records of temperature data especially daily
minimum temperature for most of the years are not available at the climatic stations in
25

26. the basin. However, the trend of temperature around the region of the basin was
attempted from different literatures. Risk-Vulnerability Mapping of Upstream VDCs
And the maximum temperature trend
based on 20 years data of Index 0721 has
also been analyzed. The temporal
variations of annual rainfall at each
selected stations were plotted and
studied separately. The mean monthly
rainfall has been performed for all those
selected stations. To do this, statistical
analysis of rainfall, ‘EXCEL’ from the
Microsoft Office Software has been
used.
3.2.2 Round table discussion
Several round table interaction meetings were organized between NDRC team and Sr.
Theme Leader, EDM/ActionAid Nepal (AAN) to understand key issues related to
study and its outputs. These interactions meetings were helpful in finalizing the study
design and field work for team.
3.2.3 Building Rapport with local level stakeholders
Preliminary meetings were
Risk-Vulnerability Mapping of Downstream VDCs
organized with local level
stakeholders to share the purpose of
the study. It was useful to select the
study VDCs and clusters within the
VDCs. The meeting decided to
choose two VDCs from
Arghakhanchi and four VDCs from
Kapilvastu district as sampled
VDCs. Then, request letters were
received from these VDCs to carry
out this comprehensive study.
3.2.4 Modality of the selection of VDCs
River basin concept was used while selecting the study VDCs. The diversity in terms of
caste, ethnicity, hill migrants and indigenous Tharu and Madhesi communities was
taken while selecting the clusters within VDCs. It has helped to explore the perspectives
and issues of different people on climate change, its impacts in peoples' lives and
livelihood and associated adaptation strategies.
3.2.5 Design Instruments, Checklist and Guide Questions
The NDRC team then prepared the checklists and guide questions to collect primary
26

27. information from the field. Through the induction meeting, those checklists were
shared with AAN partners in Kapilvastu like Sahaj Nepal and Siddartha Community
Development Centre along with the overall concept of the study. Amendments on the
checklists and guide questions were made on the basis of their feedback and
suggestions.
The checklists and guide questions
were then tested in the field in Time line and trend analysis of downstream VDCs
order to make them more realistic, Date Disaster Effects Trends
simple and to overcome (BS)
2019 Flood 26 houses were collapsed, 68 I
duplication before commissioning bigha of land was eroded by river
in the real fieldwork. 2028 Flood 10 bigha of land I
2031 Flood 15 bigha of land I
2030 Fire 2 houses (Bhusal and Pokhrel) I
3.2.6 PVA at Community Level 2032 Flood 1 house was collapsed, 30 bigha I
In order to examine and map out of land was eroded by river
the climate change adaptation by 2033 Flood 35 houses were collapsed, 25 I
poor, women, and excluded bigha of land was eroded by river
2034 Hailstone Damage of crops D
communities focusing DRR, 2041 Cold Damage of winter crops, losses D
various tools and techniques of wave of livestock, 2 children were died,
PVA were used. The team of elderly people were in difficult
situation
NDRC stayed 7-8 days in each 2055 Flood 5 kathha of land was eroded by I
VDC and the community to collect river
primary information using PVA 2057 Flood 8 kathha of land was eroded by I
river
tools, which are discussed here
2058 Drought Outburst of epidemic, I
under. production reduced by 70%
2059 Flood 10 kathha of land was eroded by I
a. Transects walks river
2061 Drought crop reduced by 45% I
These walks were also organized to 2060 Flood 5 kathha of land was eroded by I
familiarize with the area and the river
people that were mostly affected 2062 Flood 15 kathha of land was eroded by I
river, erosion of nursery
from the flood, landslides, fire,
Source: Field study, 2007
droughts, epidemics, etc. This
exercise was also useful to assess
the changes in land use pattern of the study clusters.
27

28. b. Vulnerability and hazard mapping
Vulnerability and hazard mappings exercise was found useful to know the context of
people's vulnerabilities from climate change perspective and their adaptation strategies.
In the exercise, people were requested to show the social infrastructures along with
major vulnerabilities to disasters, the most affected areas from climate change, etc by
sketching the village map in the ground. The discussion was then focused on the impact
of climate change on agriculture land, grazing fields, community ponds, forest, water
resources etc in the map. Before that, role was divided among the NDRC study team to
act as facilitators, recorders and observers. The symbols were made on the basis of
agreed consensus of the people.
Once the mapping was made on Time line and trend analysis of
the ground, it was copied in the Upstream VDCs
Date Disaster Effects Trends
large sheet of paper. The map was (BS)
again presented in the mass and 2029, Landslide 14 ropani of land damaged I
necessary corrections were made. 30
2032 Landslide 34 ropani of land damaged I
2032 Landslide 4 houses were collapsed, 12 I
c. Timeline and Trend Analysis ropani of land damaged
Communities in each VDC were 2033 Landslide 12 houses were collapsed,
I
asked about the major 23 ropani of land damaged
2035 Hailstone Damage of wheat crops
D
phenomenon including history of 2044 Cold Damage of winter crops and
D
area in terms of the disasters wave losses of livestock
occurrence, the experiences of the 2055 Landslide 34 ropani of land damaged
I
climate change, etc. The purpose 2057 Landslide 5 ropani of land damaged
I
2058 Drought Outburst of epidemic,
I
was to see and to explain the production reduced by 70%
causes and consequences of climate 2059 Landslide 42 ropani of land damaged
I
change and adaptation strategies of 2061 Drought Crop reduced by 60 %
I
2060 Landslide 58 ropani of land damaged
I
local people. Local people shared 2062 Landslide 9 ropani of land damaged
I
the dates and the type of disasters
that have occurred and the corresponding results/impacts. Elderly people contributed
the information from decades back. The following process was used to explore the
timeline and time trends.
• Initially, the purpose of the exercise Venn diagram of Downstream VDCs
was shared. Once the people knew
about the purpose of information
collection, they selected the elderly
and knowledgeable people both men
and women to list out the major
events, their effects and trends.
• In case of confusion of years, agreed
communities benchmarks were
established that were later verified
from other knowledgeable people. Source: Field study 2007
• The role played by the communities
28

29. during each disaster event was also recorded. The climate change phenomenon
and its impacts were discussed. Their increasing and decreasing trends were also
discussed.
• At the end of the exercise, the lead person
shared the timeline and trends to the Venn diagram of Upstream VDCs
community for the purpose of
verification.
The major disaster events and their correlation
with climate change were located with the time
line of the disasters and from some informal
meetings and interviews; a trend analysis of
these disasters and their impacts on climate
change was also carried out. This information
provided an opportunity to make further Source: Field study, 2007
analysis and to recommend the measures at the
end.
d. Venn Relationship
Venn diagrams were prepared sitting with the community members based on different
information on the existing support of various institutions. The following process was
used to assess the Venn relationships:
• The participants listed down the major organisations working in the VDCs with
their detail information.
• Discussion was made on how the Seasonal calendar of downstream VDCs
absence of effective Major Months
organisation/institution further Incident 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
promoted people's vulnerability to Flood
River Cutting
impacts of climate change. Fire
• The participants were requested to Starvation
identify the most important, least Loan
Diseases
important, the more accessible and Fetching
least accessible institutions at the time firewood
of people's need to reduce the effects Thunderbolt
Inundation
of climate change.
Freed animal
• Further, they were asked to place Snake bite
institutions based on their Cold wave
interrelationship (one way and two- Encephalitis,
Malaria
way relationship, near and far, more Eye disease,
access and less access etc). dysentery
• The institutional mapping (Venn Source: field work, 2007
diagram) was then later presented in the mass for its verification.
29

30. e. Seasonal Calendar
Seasons are the integral parts of people's lives and they exert an important impact upon
the livelihood of the local people. In these sites, the calendar reflected the perceptions of
the local people regarding seasonal variations in the various aspects and their
relationship in climate change. It helped to identify heavy workload periods, periods of
relative ease, credit, diseases, food security, wage availability and possibility of
occurrence of some disaster like fire, thunderstorm, flood, landslides, experience of
climate change impacts, etc. It also
established the pattern of crop Seasonal calendar of upstream VDCs
cultivation and vulnerability, crop Major Incident Months
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
diversification and changes in Landslide
climate. It helped the community River cutting
to identify the most vulnerable Fire
Starvation
group according to seasonality. For Loan
this, the following process was Diseases
adopted. Fetching firewood
• People were asked to list Thunderbolt
Snake bite
down the major events of Cold wave
the year and then fit it in to Encephalitis, Malaria
calendar. Eye disease, cholera,
dysentery
• It was discussed that how Source: field work, 2007
seasonality propagated
vulnerabilities and how people coped with such vulnerabilities.
• At the end of the discussion, the calendar was shared in the mass for the purpose
of triangulation.
f. Problem Tree for Casual Analysis
Casual analysis was very important to know the types of problems and their underlying
causes and effects of climate change. The participants were mobilised to identify major
problems and their cause and effects. For this, pair wise ranking was made to identify
the most crucial problems for climate change. For clarity, the facilitators drew the sketch
of tree by showing its three parts: the root, stem and branches. The stem was
symbolised as problem, roots as causes and branches as effects.
This exercise was able to analyse the level of awareness of the people at one hand and
on the other hand to identify the areas for interventions for the community actions to
ensure that proper DRR interventions are implemented in the community.
g. Focus Group Discussions (FGDs)
The FGDs were organized to find potential areas where the communities needed to
focus in the coming days for DRR and climate change adaptation. The objective of this
exercise was to find out the current practices and plans of making communities safer
from climate change adaptation perspective.
30

31. h. Key informant interview
These interviews were made with Teachers, ex-VDC representatives, social elites,
mother groups, local NGOs and CBOs representatives, saving and credit groups, water
users association and community forest user's group representatives. They provided
key information and shared their reflections about climate
Problem tree: Upstream
change and the adaptation approaches to reduce its impacts. VDCs
FGDs were organised with male, female and mixed groups
taking both hill migrants and indigenous Tarai people
separately. The gender, social inclusion and different
occupations were kept in mind while selecting the
participants for FGDs. The key findings arrived from KIIs
and FGDs were later shared in the same mass meeting in
order to ensure authenticity of the information, its reliability
and validity.
3.2 7 Meeting with Government Stakeholders
The perspective of different stakeholders on disaster risk
reduction and climate change adaptation was important to know. Therefore, meetings were
organized with district level stakeholders such as Agriculture Service Centre, Livestock Service
Centre, Forest Range Post, Sub-health Post, and some non-government organisations
(NGOs)/Community Based Organisation (CBOs) and ex-Village Development Committee
(VDC) officials. The main purpose of these meetings was to record the perception and views
on the climate change impacts and adaptation strategies to
Problem tree: Downstream
reduce the risks.
VDCs
3.2.8 Reporting back to the Communities
Once the information and data were collected through
varieties of tools and techniques in the presence of small
groups as well as at the individual interview, mass
meeting was organized at the end of PVA exercise to
present all the PVA findings in each VDC. The purpose of
this exercise was to share main findings about the causes,
effects, impacts of climate change and their adaptation
strategies adopted by the communities and to motivate
the communities in the various aspects of climate change
adaptation process.
3.2.9 Analysis the Vulnerabilities
In order to arrive into specific conclusion, the information gathered from various
sources was synthesized, categorized and analyzed before final write up of report. All
issues related to climate change, its causes, effects, impacts and adaptation strategies
31

32. adopted by the communities especially, poor, women, excluded explored from PVA
process were categorized in to various forms in order to derive key findings, conclusion
and to make major recommendations.
3.3 Outline of the report
The report is organized into seven sections. The first section provides the scenario of
climate change in global and national context and introduction of Nepal and study area
with the second section. The third section covers objectives and methods while the
climatic change trends in Nepal and study area is discussed in the fourth section. The
impact of climate change in different sectors and adaptation strategies adopted by local
people is discussed in fifth section. Conclusion and recommendation is given in the
sixth section. The last section of the report presents the annexes.
32

33. Chapter 4
Climatic Change Trends in Nepal and the Study Area
This chapter mainly focuses the climatic change trends in Nepal and study area in terms
of temperature and precipitation and changes in these two factors. With the thorough
informational and analysis, the chapter at its later part gives the information on
unpredictable weather events like flood, droughts and thick fog (pala) and its
relationship in climate change.
4.1 Temperature
Tarai belt is the hottest part of the country where the extreme maximum temperature
reaches more than 45ºC. The highest temperature ever recorded was 46.4ºC in
Dhangadhi, a town in far western Tarai, in June 1995 (MoPE, 2004). Similarly, 1990s was
the warmest decade and year 2005 was the warmest year on record, followed by 1998
and 2002. The same types of information are also observed by the Department of
Hydrology and Meteorology (DoHM).
The annual mean temperature is however around 15ºC, and increases from the north to
the south with exceptions in the mountain valleys. The temperature differences are
most pronounced during the dry winter season, and least in the middle of the monsoon.
Analysis of recorded temperature and precipitation data in Nepal are limited. One of
the reasons behind this is relatively short length of records of about 30 years. From
available studies, it has been found that temperature in Nepal is increasing at a rather
high rate. The warming seems to be consistent and continuous after the mid-1970s. The
average warming in annual temperature between 1977 and 1994 was 0.06ºC/yr
(Shrestha et al. 1999).
Changing rainfall patterns and higher temperatures have forced people to shorten the
growing season and switch to more expensive hybrid crops. Frequent droughts and
floods are eroding community's assets and people's indigenous knowledge and leaving
people more vulnerable to disaster.
The warming is found to be more pronounced in the high altitude regions of Nepal
such as the middle Mountain and the high Himalaya, while the warming is significantly
lower or even lacking in the Tarai and Siwalik regions. High increase in summer river
flow provides further evidence that high summer temperatures are leading to fast
glacial melt in the Himalayas. Further, warming in the winter is more pronounced
compared to other seasons. In this sense, the trends in observed data are in agreement
with projections made by climate models. It can be seen that there is a general
resemblance between these two series: the generally decreasing trend from the 1940s to
the 1970s and the continuous increasing trend thereafter. This suggests that the climatic
variations in Nepal are closely connected to global climatic changes.
33