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- 1. National Human Development Report 2008 United Nations Development Programme
- 3. Rezultati istraživanja javnog mnijenja Hrvatski građani i građanke vjeruju da su klimatske promjene ozbiljan problem. Posebno oni koji žive u obalnom području gdje se očekuje da će učinci biti izraženiji. Što znamo o klimi koja se mijenja ? Izvješće o društvenom razvoju - Hrvatska 2008 .
- 4. ...rezultati istraživanja javnog mnijenja Većina hrvatskih građana tvrdi da su već poduzeli neke aktivnosti sa ciljem očuvanja okoliša i da su spremni i dalje poduzimati nove akcije, uključivši i plaćanje dodatnog iznosa na cijenu struje i za promet koji bi bio manje štetan za okoliš . Izvješće o društvenom razvoju - Hrvatska 2008 . Što znamo o klimi koja se mijenja ?
- 5. Klimatska predviđanja za razdoblje do kraja stoljeća - Općenito, u Hrvatskoj će biti toplije i sušnije, posebice ljeti . - Sniježni pokrov zimi u sjevernoj Hrvatskoj bit će neizvjesniji . - Očekuje se smanjena vlažnost tla u proljetnom razdoblju . Očekivana promjena ljetnih temperatura za razdoblje 2040-2070 . Izvješće o društvenom razvoju - Hrvatska 2008 . Što znamo o klimi koja se mijenja ?
- 16. Ublažavanje klimatskih promjena i smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova: Bogate zemlje moraju smanjiti emisije za 30% do 2020. i za 80% do 2050. godine. Što Hrvatska može učiniti kako bi promijenila klimu ? Izvješće o društvenom razvoju - Hrvatska 2008 .
- 18. Izvješće o društvenom razvoju - Hrvatska 2008 . Što Hrvatska može učiniti kako bi promijenila klimu ? Troškovi smanjenja emisija i ublažavanja klimatskih promjena Projekcije ukupnih troškova za različite vrste mjera za 2020.
- 21. Za kraj, poruka glavnog tajnika UN-a povodom Svjetskog dana okoliša: Izvješće o društvenom razvoju - Hrvatska 2008 . “ The economic and financial turmoil sweeping the globe is a true wake-up call, sounding an alarm about the need to improve upon old patterns of growth and make a transition to a new era of greener, cleaner development. The theme of this year’s World Environment Day – “Your planet needs you” – is meant to inspire all of us to do our part…. ... The world also needs a “Green New Deal” focused on investing in renewable sources of energy, eco-friendly infrastructure and energy efficiency. This will not only create jobs and spur recovery but also help tackle global warming. If we invest even part of the substantial new economic stimulus packages in the green economy, we can turn today’s crisis into tomorrow’s sustainable growth… ... On this World Environment Day, I encourage all people to take concrete steps toward making the planet greener and cleaner. Switch off the lights. Take public transportation. Recycle. Plant a tree. Clean up your local park. Hold corporations responsible for their environmental practices. And urge your government r epresentatives to Seal the Deal in Copenhagen.”
- 22. National Human Development Report 2008 United Nations Development Programme Zahvaljujem na pažnji ! www.undp.hr
Notas do Editor
- Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen and dear guests . I am pleased to have an opportunity here to present to you the 2008 Human Development Report for Croatia – A Climate for Change: The Socio-economic impacts of climate change in Croatia. I will present to you some of the findings of this extensive report which I believe represents an important step in understanding and addressing the impacts of climate change in Croatia. Respecting the work of Milutin Milanković and all the complexity of the climate change phenomena, I would not argue why and how climate is changing. I would rather focus on it’s impacts that we already experience in Croatia and on the fact that we need to work together to reduce the damage. This report is among the first of its kind in the world and in the region. We hope that it will deepen further cooperation with the Government of Croatia in working towards reducing emissions and at the same time working to address vulnerability to climate and mitigation of climate change effects. It is an attempt to make scientific information and climate models available to the wider public and start a debate in society. It is by nature conservative and does not make sensationalist claims. It is a call for further analysis, debate and action and it offers options. T his is only a beginning – we stand ready to work together on detailing such issues as mitigation and costing, if the government wishes it so.
- The report sets out to answer three questions: What do we know about the changing climate? i.e. What the Croatian people know about climate change, what do they think needs to be done, and what are they willing to do. What changes to climate in Croatia are expected in the next 20, 30, 40, 80 years due to climate change if global emissions are not decreased. What would climate change affect in Croatia? This question addresses: Aspects of the Croatian economy and environment that will be affected by a changing climate. What can Croatia do to change the climate? What can Croatia do to reduce its emissions? How much will this cost and what is necessary in terms of institutional capacity to carry this out?
- For the report, UNDP carried out a public survey of 1000 Croatians. The vast majority of Croatians are very concerned about the environment and climate change – 96% think climate change is either a problem or a serious problem. Well over half of Croatians believe that climate change will have an impact on their own lives. In the regions where the economy depends more on climate – especially on the Adriatic Sea – people are more concerned.
- A pproximately 90% of Croatians believe that Croatia should be doing on reducing it’s emissions as much or more than the average EU or developed country Croatians also expressed a willingness to act and pay to reduce emissions. In fact, Croatia’s citizens are more willing to pay extra for energy such as solar and wind power which produces fewer emissions than the average EU citizen. In addition, Croatians express a strong willingness to act to reduce emissions related to their own behavior.
- This Human Development Report also examines what changes in climate are expected in Croatia. But on this, I would not say any more then what has already been said by our respected colleauges and scientists from The Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ)
- I would rather focus the section of the Report, which analyse the probable impacts of climate change – both positive and negative – on various sectors of Croatia that are affected by climate. We collected data on already experienced damages and consequences of varaibility in climate in the recent past. And we tried to make linkages between various impacts and multiplying effects on economy and society. Further, we explore d what information is necessary to better adapt to climate change and we made some recommendations for “no regrets” measures for adaptation – “No regrets” measures are those that would help aid in human development regardless of climate change. This are the economic sec tors we looked at: Tourism Coastal resources – especially related to sea level rise Health Fresh-water resources Agriculture and Fisheries/ mariculture I will present today just a few of the findings.
- Already, climate is integrally linked to human development in Croatia. Severe weather events such as heat waves and droughts have already shown that Croatia is vulnerable to what we call “climate variability” For example, in August of 2003, a heat wave – which was exceptionally strong throughout Europe – is estimated to have increased mortality in Croatia by 4%. In the same year, because of drought, hydro-electric production was reduced. Estimates using the relative costs of electricity show that this probably cost Croatia an extra 40 million Euros to compensate for the lost electricity produced. More was lost due to the drought in 2007. Additionally, climate variability has had severe effects on agriculture. In the period from 2000-2007, the average amount of damage claimed in agriculture was 176 million Euros per year – which is 25% more than the entire amount of direct subsidies in the sector.
- In focusing on the potential impacts of climate change on specific sectors, we started by looking at tourism. As we know, the Tourism sector is critical in Croatia – providing a huge portion of the jobs in Croatia and accounting for around 20% of GDP. The Croatian tourism sector is characterised by lots of small entrepreneurs making a living off of visitors – primarily to the coast – during the peak summer season. 67% of all of the capacity to host tourists is in private homes and camp-sites. Not hotels. Therefore, a change in the number of tourists during the peak seasons and re-distribution of visits throughout the year could have a dramatic impact on the middle class in Croatia. Because climate creates nature, it is integral part of tourism in Croatia. Most people come to Croatia for its natural beauty and to enjoy the climate. If the summers will become drier and hotter, the turist offer should be much more diversified and based on attaractions other the beach tourism. Croatia already started to work on improving it’s tourism product, potential impact sof climate change are many more additional reasons to continue and increase supporting those initiatives. Many of Croatia’s natural wonders – such as Plitvice National Park – could potentially be altered due to climate change. But adaptation means what it says – maybe we need to plan for two tourist seasons – one in the spring and one in early autumn.
- Another sector I would stress is the a griculture sector , which is important due to its overall value in terms of resources and its impact on food security, vulnerable populations, and the employment it generates. In the last few years, climate variability (and perhaps this is actually climate change) has already had a significant impact on agriculture. Extreme weather events – especially droughts and heat waves - have resulted in average losses of EUR 176 million per year during 2000-2007 – 0.6% of national GDP, and almost 10% of the value generated by the agricultural, forestry and fisheries sector. Much of this damage has resulted in economic hardship for farmers.
- Looking at the future effect of climate change, there may be both positive and negative impacts. Looking at the likely impacts on maize alone, the lost revenue due to climate change is expected to be EUR 6-16 million in 2050 and EUR 31-43 million in 2100. However, there is little information – such as crop models or agricultural sector economic models – that would help the sector understand current or future vulnerability due to climate change.
- Another sector the Report examined was fishing and mariculture. The fishery and mariculture sector in Croatia accounts for a small portion of the GVA – an average of 0.25% or around EUR 56 million in 2003 and 2004, but it plays an important role in the socio-economic status of a large number of people. Climate change and increasing temperatures may result in important impacts in the near future that will continue to challenge this industry. It appears that climate change is already having an impact on fish populations. They are already showing significant fluctuation s. Climate change is likely to have positive impacts on species in mariculture off the Croatian coast because of a longer growing season and shorter rearing cycles. Climate change will probably also result in new species in the region which can be economically beneficial or cause serious problems. Ecologically, invasive species could be highly problematic.
- Fresh water is one of the most critical resources for Human Development. It is important for drinking, agricultural use, sustains wetlands which then provide services such as cleaning the water and providing wood and habitats for animals. In Croatia 50% of electricity produced comes from hydroelectric energy. Croatian fresh-water resources are abundant - among the richest in Europe. Croatia uses only about 1% of the water resources available. However, there are some issues. For example: A large amount of pumped water (45%) is wasted, which leads to lost revenue of up to EUR 286 million per year and more emissions because of increased electricity use.
- Because climate change is expected to lead to a Croatia that is drier and hotter, there may be problems with sustaining wetlands, supporting agriculture, and – perhaps most likely – producing hydro-electric energy. The amount of rainfall is directly connected to the amount of electricity produced by hydro-electric dams. Most studies predict a drop between 10-50% in hydro-electric production in the region. This would cost Croatia in terms of energy security, and because hydro-electric power is cheaper than all of the other options for electricity. A drop in hydro-electric production would mean that millions of additional EURO would need to be spent to either import electricity or produce it from more expensive sources like natural gas, coal, nuclear, or renewable energies such as wind and solar power. Our analysis shows that already, drought years such as 2003 and 2007 probably cost HEP – and then consumers – significant amounts of money – perhaps 100 million Euros in 2007 alone
- Health impacts were identified in the public survey as a particular concern among the population. Events such as heat waves have already had an impact on Croatians. E.g. 2003 heat wave caused an estimated 185 additional deaths in Croatia. These heat waves are likely to increase in frequency due to climate change. The impacts on human health could be both good and bad. These impacts would include: Cardiovascular risks Increased frequencies of heat stroke Increased allergic reactions from pollen Increase in the vector-borne illnesses, water borne diseases, bacterial growth in food and new unknown sicknesses are very likely. Decreased death rates and illnesses during winter months due to less severe cold spells.
- In concluding the discussion on „What would climate change affect in Croatia?“ it is especially important to note the probable impact of climate change on vulnerable groups within the population. Though climate change is a global problem, it will not affect all people equally. Poorer communities have limited adaptive capacities and are more dependent on climate-sensitive resources. The elderly – who are disproportionately poor – are likely to face more severe consequences related to health impacts in addition to economic impacts. A dditional vulnerability where weather-dependen t industries form the primary source of jobs in certain regions (e.g. fishing/ tourism on the coast, farming in rural areas). In designing and carrying out climate adaptation programs, policy makers must especially consider vulnerable people and regions in Croatia.
- The last section of the report focuses on climate change mitigation – or reduction of the Greenhouse gases that cause global warming. On this, we have also already heard today from dr. Ružinski and from Mrs. Nećak, so I am not going into many details. I would just stress several really important issues and facts: According to the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, in order to prevent dangerous climate change of over 2 degrees Celsius: Overall, global emissions must be cut by 50-80% by 2050 – Because of population growth, this would mean reducing emissions to 2 tonnes per person. This will require massive cuts by both developed and developing countries. Already, many developed countries – especially the EU are moving forward to cut their emissions from 1990 levels by 20% by 2020. Croatia has already committed to cutting its emissions by 5% under the Kyoto Protocol, and will be a part of the EU effort to curb emissions in the near future. Current discussions at the international level are focused on 2020 as the next target date. Over the course of this year culminating in Copenhagen at year-end, there will be a continued push to reach a global consensus about how to move forward with reducing emissions and facilitating development in the coming decade and beyond.
- Croatia is a relatively small emitter of Greenhouse Gases – though emissions have been growing and are expected to rise significantly by 2020 if actions are not taken. Croatia currently emits approximately 7 tons per person per year - with most emissions coming from the energy sector, agriculture, and industrial processes such as cement and fertilizer production. This is approximately the global average. This report used analysis from various studies carried out to present a general idea of how much it would cost Croatia to reduce its emissions by 2020. In looking at the potential for reduction of Greenhouse Gas emissions, it appears that there is quite a bit that can be done to reduce emissions in Croatia. I’m not going to go into detail into all of the measures, but I will mention a few. By far, the most economically effective way to reduce emissions is through energy efficiency – by making transportation more efficient, buildings more efficient, and industries more efficient. Increased efficiency means money saved which can be used for other purposes. UNDP’s analysis shows that Croatia spends almost 20% of its GDP on Energy over 6.8 billion Euros – and energy efficiency could, in an ideal scenario, save over 1.4 billion Euros each year with better efficiency. Efficiency measures in energy and in other arenas could help Croatia get close to stabilizing its emissions by 2020.
- After the “no regretts” measures with net-benefit, comes a set of measure that are likely to be cost-neutral, then a set of measures that are likely to be cost-effective with a certain, relatively high price of carbon on international market – wind energy and improvement of the electricity grid are good examples of this. In the end, there are more expencive measures. As you can see, it is likely that there would be a net economic benefit for reductions due to energy efficiency and some of the “cost neutral” options. Eventually, though, the costs of some of the more expensive options would end up increasing costs for Croatia and its citizens. This report estimates that reductions are possible for relatively small costs, but it will require some capital, significant political will, and a great deal of institutional capacity and public involvement.
- Finally, the report also looked at the institutions involved with mitigation efforts and found that, in general: T he Government has sent a clear message that energy efficiency, renewable energy and reduced emissions are important. For example, this picture shows the mayors and various government representatives at a conference where 127 towns and 20 counties committed to increasing energy efficiency and reducing emissions. A fair amount of technological capacity exists for mitigation. This includes expert knowledge of energy efficiency and interest on the part of businesses. Opportunities for financing emissions reductions exist and are increasing. This is likely to continue to grow as Croatia moves towards EU accession. In particular, the introduction of a carbon fee for Greenhouse gas pollution and a supportive scheme for renewable energy are both big positive steps forward emissions reduction.
- The Report spells out in very clear terms a number of conclusions and recommendations. Here are a few of the main points Current climate already is linked to human development and has large risks in Croatia- Croatia needs better information about how to prevent the huge losses of over 170 million Euros per year in the agriculture sector due to natural disasters. Croatia should do better at being efficient with water resources – over 280 million Euros per year pay for water that does not even make it to the drain, much less go down it. The tourism industry – which makes up 20% of Croatian GDP is directly linked and dependent on climate as a variable. More and better information is necessary to adapt to current climate variability and future climate change. Economic information and understanding of the various sectors in this study is sorely lacking or not publicly available – this includes basic information about the value of agricultural products, tourist preferences, and others. Further, information about the physical impacts of climate change are not known for Croatia as a whole and particular important places such as Plitvice National Park, the coast, etc. Croatia must continue to become more efficient with its use of energy to reduce emissions and reduce costs. The “low range estimates of this report suggest that, with more efficient buildings, more efficient vehicles, better transport and urban planning, hundreds of millions of Euros annually can be saved which would then be available for other purposes. New ways of mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions can help with adaptation and reduce net emissions. Working to improve farming practices and improve methodologies for counting the emissions soaked up by wetlands and forests could have tremendous impacts on the emissions from Croatia – perhaps up to 10 million tons of emissions reduced each year which is about one third of Croatia’s current emissions. A Climate for Change is necessary Croatia has the potential to move towards a lower carbon economy and to adapt to climate risks. However, this will require continued political will, improved organisational capacity and coordination of the various sectors – especially sectors which have not been engaged in these issues, such as agriculture, transport, physical planning, and tourism The challenge of climate change will also require efforts to facilitate public action towards reducing their emissions and ensuring that human development in Croatia continues to improve in the coming century regardless of the impacts of climate change.
- For the end, let me read parts of the message of United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, on the occasion of the world Environment day that is on week from now , on June 5th . He says: “ The economic and financial turmoil sweeping the globe is a true wake-up call, sounding an alarm about the need to improve upon old patterns of growth and make a transition to a new era of greener, cleaner development. The theme of this year’s World Environment Day – “Your planet needs you” – is meant to inspire all of us to do our part…. ... The world also needs a “Green New Deal” focused on investing in renewable sources of energy, eco-friendly infrastructure and energy efficiency. This will not only create jobs and spur recovery but also help tackle global warming. If we invest even part of the substantial new economic stimulus packages in the green economy, we can turn today’s crisis into tomorrow’s sustainable growth… ... On this World Environment Day, I encourage all people to take concrete steps toward making the planet greener and cleaner. Switch off the lights. Take public transportation. Recycle. Plant a tree. Clean up your local park. Hold corporations responsible for their environmental practices. And urge your government r epresentatives to Seal the Deal in Copenhagen.” UNDP hopes to continue to cooperate with all of the stakeholders involved in this process. We aim to work towards a Croatia whose development is not undermined by climate change and who is a part of the global solution to this issue.
- Thank you once again… For more information and the report please visit our web-site