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Global Energy Challenge
1. Energy Challenge
Group C
Aditya Kumar | Amit Sonwani | Bhagyasree Dhawan | Dipak Senapati |
Gaurav Pilania | Karthick Sharma K | Keshav Sodhi |
Malini Aishwarya B | Nimish Shridhar Ambokar | Piyush Sontakke |
S C Chakravarthi V | Valavala Sai Sravya
2. Total World Production and Consumption
Oil and Natural Gas Production and Consumption
Coal Production and Consumption
Hydro and Nuclear Energy
Consumption of the energy resources
Global Current Energy Trends
ENERGY CHALLENGE 2
3. Total World Production and Consumption
ENERGY CHALLENGE 3
REGIONAL SHARE PRODUCTION
Asia
China
Non OECD Europe and
Eurasia
Middle East
OECD
Total 13113 MTOE
TOTAL FINAL CONSUMPTION
OECD
China
Asia(Excluing China)
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
Africa
Non-OECD Americas
Middle East
Bunkers
TOTAL FINAL CONSUMPTION(FUEL)
Oil
Electricity
Natural Gas
Biofuels and Waste
Caol/Peat
Other
TOTAL ENERGY PRODUCTION
Biofuels and waste
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Total 13113 MTOE
4. Oil Production and Consumption
ENERGY CHALLENGE 4
13.10% 12.60%
9.30%
5.00% 4.50% 4.40% 3.90% 3.90% 3.70% 3.60%
36.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
Saudi Arabia Russian
Federation
US China Iran Canada UAE Venezuela Kuwait Iraq Others
CRUDE OIL PRODUCERSTotal 4142 Mt
353
247
122
121
11410893
89
82
79
574
NET EXPORTERS
Saudi Arabia
Russian Federation
Iran
Nigeria
UAE
Iraq
Venezuela
Kuwait
Total 1982 Mt
NET IMPORTERS
USA
China
Japan
India
Korea
Germany
Italy
France
Total 2079 Mt
5. Natural Gas Production and Consumption
ENERGY CHALLENGE 5
19.80% 19.10%
4.70% 4.60% 4.60% 3.30% 3.10% 2.80% 2.30% 2.20%
33.50%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
USA Russian
federation
Qatar Iran Canada Norway China Saudi Arabia Netherlands Indonesia Others
NATURAL GAS PRODUCERSTotal 3435 bcm
Net exporters
Russian Federation
Qatar
Norway
Canada
Algeria
Turkemenistan
Indonesia
Netherlands
Total 829 bcm
Net importers
Japan
Germany
Italy
Korea
Turkey
USA
France
UK
Total 827 bcm
6. Coal Production and Consumption
ENERGY CHALLENGE 6
NET EXPORTERS
USA
Russian federation
Qatar
Iran
Canada
Norway
China
Saudi Arabia
Total 1168 Mt
NET IMPORTERS
USA
Russian federation
Qatar
Iran
Canada
Norway
China
Saudi Arabia
Total 1188 Mt
45.30%
11.90% 7.60% 5.70% 5.40% 4.50% 3.30% 2.50% 1.80% 1.60%
10.40%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
China USA India Indonesia Australia Russian
Federation
South Africa Germany Poland Kazakhstan Others
COAL PRODUCERS
7. Hydro and Nuclear Energy
ENERGY CHALLENGE 7
NUCLEAR POWER PRODUCERS
USA
France
Russian Federation
Korea
Germany
Japan
CanadaTotal 2584 TWh
79.40%
46.30%
29.80%
19.00% 18.90% 17.90% 14.70% 9.80%
1.80%
11.50%
PERCENTAGE OF NUCLEAR IN TOTAL DOMESTIC
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
Hydro power producers
China
Brazil
Canada
US
Russia Federation
India
Norway
Total 3566 TWh
95.30%
80.60%
68.60%
59.00%
44.30%
15.90% 14.80% 12.40% 8.70% 7.90% 13.60%
PERCENTAGE OF HYDRO IN TOTAL DOMESTIC ELECTRICITY
GENERATION
8. Consumption of the energy resources
ENERGY CHALLENGE 8
Production of biofuels and waste is high
Other energy sources are being used extensively for
electricity generation
Efficiency of the other energy sources is low
Coal and natural gas major chunk is being used for
industrial use
Transport also uses a major chunk of the energy
Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, electricity and heat, etc.
80.7%
4.3%
0.4%
14.6%
COAL
Industry Non-Energy use
Transport Other
62%17%
9%12%
OIL
Transport Non-energy use
Industry Other
37%
12%7%
44%
NATURAL GAS
Industry Non-energy use
Transport Other
43%
1%
56%
ELECTRICITY
Industry Transport Other
Supply and
Consumption
Coal/peat Oil products Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro
Biofuels and
Waste
Other
Production 3850.54- 2805.35 674.01 300.17 1310.64 128.08
Imports 696.75 1077.39 865.3 - - 13.89 55.78
Exports -726.24 -1164.02 -861.72 - - -11.64 -55.82
Stock changes -44.99 3.05 -21.98 - - -0.74 -
TPES 3776.06 -83.58 2786.95 674.01 300.17 1312.15 128.04
Transfers -0.34 195.38 - - - 0.02 -
Statistical diff. -143.75 3.52 10.31 - - -0.08 -1.74
Electricity plants -2075.41 -203.82 -711.28 -670.42 -300.17 -81.07 1624.79
CHP plants -180.77 -25.55 -313.98 -3.57 - -42.75 329.47
Heat plants -109.45 -11.71 -92.93 -0.02 - -10.82 189.23
Blast furnaces -190.85 -0.61 -0.08 - - -0.06-
Gas works -6.32 -3.82 3.18 - - -0.03 -
Coke ovens(b) -59.09 -2.61- - - -0.02 -
Oil refineries - 3989.31 -0.85 - - - -
Petchem. plants - -31.81 - - - - -
Liquefaction plants -17.55 - -10.74 - - - -
Other transf. -0.06 -2.79 -3.59 - - -54.63 -0.35
Energy ind. own use -85.43 -206.71 -267.51 - - -10.77 -207.25
Losses -3.42 -0.69 -18.97 - - -0.19 -173.79
TFC 903.62 3614.51 1380.51 0 0 1111.75 1888.4
Industry 728.93 312.48 506.38 - - 198.15 800.14
Transport(c) 3.41 2265.21 92.52 - - 58.61 25.16
Other 132.05 435.55 610.23 - - 854.99 1063.11
Non-energy use 39.22 601.27 171.36 - - - -
9. Current Energy Trends
ENERGY CHALLENGE 9
Hydraulic fracturing and other
unconventional technologies has led
to to oil and gas boom
Unconventional sources are poised to
be risky as requires continuous
investment in drilling new wells
Demand to actually decrease due to
improved energy efficiency
Massive deep-water oil resources
unearthed by new seismic
technologies making sixth largest
producer by 2035
Government drive to promote sugar
ethanol making it least carbon
intensive
World’s only source of low cost oil, to
remain unchallenged by 2020
Will account for 10 percent of growth
in energy demand through 2035
Two-thirds of world energy demand
growth will come from Asia
China will remain Asia's biggest
market, but the volumetric growth in
Indian demand is larger than that of
China
Hope to replicate US success but legal
environment and oil service industry
capacity
The burden of costly fossil fuel imports
will fall heavily on the European Union
in the years ahead
The price of natural gas in the EU is
now triple the price in the United
States; Japan is paying nearly five
times as much
Due to highly subsidised fossil fuels the energy mix to remain same
Trucks, not cars, are behind the growing consumption of oil, so diesel demand to
grow three times faster than demand for gasoline
10. Population
Living standards / per capita consumption
Industrial changes - coming up , growth
Price changes
ENERGY CHALLENGE 10
11. Population
7.1 Billion
(in 2012)
8.3 Billion
(in 2030)
1.2 Billion new
energy users
India takes over China to be the most populous country,
after 2025
India’s population exceeds 1.5 Billion in 2035
Africa sees the fastest rate of growth
Russia is the only major non OECD country that sees a
decline in its population
Population growth and income growth directly impacts energy use by effecting size and composition of energy demand and indirectly impacts it through its effect on economic growth
Demand for energy will increase by approx.50% due to increase
in the global population and the consumption patterns of an
expanding middle class
Share of the world’s population increases from 82% in 2010 to
85% in 2030 (in the developing countries)
People in Urban areas use more energy
GROWING WORLD POPULATION
INCREASING URBANISATION
60 % of the world’s
population will live in cities
AGING SOCIETIES
The median age will
increase to 34 years
INCOME GROWTH
The world income is
expected to double the
2011 levels in real terms
Energy consumption increases by
1.6% p.a. adding 36% increase to
global consumption by 2030
ENERGY CHALLENGE 11
12. Living standards / per capita consumption
Per capita energy demand would be much higher in developed
countries as per the projections
Average per-capita energy demand in the OECD countries drops by 7%
between 2010 and 2035, while it increases by 25% in the rest of the
world
INDIA
Fastest increase occurs
reaching 1.0 toe per person in
2035, still less than one-
quarter of the current OECD
average
USA
7.0 toe per person in 2010 to
5.8 toe per person in 2035
CHINA
Sees a large increase, rising to
2.8 toe per person in 2035. Its
demand rises by 60% between
2010 and 2035
*OECD – Organisation for Economic Co=operation and Development
*toe – tonne of oil equivalent – unit representing energy generated by burning tonne of oil equivalent
World primary energy demand per unit of GDP and per capita in the New Policies
Scenario in major countries
*Source : World Energy Outlook 2012 – International Energy Agency
ENERGY CHALLENGE 12
CONSUMPTION
NON OECD
Low and medium income economies – 90% of population growth
Due to rapid industrialisation and urbanisation
Contribute to 70% of global GDP growth and over 90% 0f global energy Demand
OECD
Shrinking Middle Class – Emergence of winner-takes-it-all economies
Per capita income rises in lower-income countries than the high- income
countries see only a marginal growth
NON OECD
Accounts to almost 93% of the energy consumption growth
In 2030 energy consumption is 61% above the 2011 level
Growth averages to 1.5% p.a. per capita which accounts for
65% of world consumption over 53% in 2011
OECD
In 2030 energy consumption will be just 6% higher than in
2011
It will decline in per capita terms (-0.2% p.a. 2011-30).
13. Industrial changes - coming up , growth
0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50%
BulkChemical
Industry
Energy
intensive
Industry
Non-Energy
intensive
Industry
Non-
Manufacturin
gIndustry
Industry Wise energy
consumption
ENERGY CHALLENGE 13
Energy consumption grows by 1.2% a year in Non-manufacturing industries like
agriculture, construction, and mining
The energy intensity decreases in agriculture and construction industries
The intensity increases in the mining industry due to its shift towards
energy intensive resources
Energy consumption in Non-energy intensive industries:
Grows by 1.11% a year in the period 2012 to 2040
The growth is more rapid in the period 2012 to 2025 (1.3% per year) than
in the period 2025 to 2040 (0.8% per year)
Energy consumption in Energy-intensive industries:
Grows by 0.7% a year in the period 2012 to 2040 with most of the growth
occurring in the period 2012 to 2025
Industry types - Refining, food, paper, bulk chemicals, glass, cement and
lime, iron and steel, and aluminum industries
Energy consumption grows by 0.87% a year in Bulk chemical industries which
use liquid feedstock as energy
HGL feedstock consumption grows by 0.73%
Petroleum feedstock consumption grows by 2.51% a year from 2012 to
2040
14. Price changes
ENERGY CHALLENGE 14
Oil Prices
•After the financial
crises of 2008, a
general upward
trend has been
seen
•As existing fields
are depleted, the
cost will rise to
satiate the demand
Steam Coal Prices
•Domestic prices
depend on indigenous
production costs
•Coal prices fall sharply
in the energy efficient
scenario because of
policy actions to reduce
CO2 emissions
Natural Gas Prices
•Hub based pricing in some
countries
•Oil price indexation remains a
predominant method in many
countries
•In some areas like the Middle
East and Russia, it is subsidised
•Depends on competition with
coal in power sector
CO2 prices
•Through Cap Trade Programs or Carbon
Taxing
•EU Emissions Trading System is
currently the largest
•New Zealand, Australia and California
also have such programs
•Korea plans to start it by 2015 and
China included these plans in its 12th
five year plan
16. Geopolitical Scenario
ENERGY CHALLENGE 16
Increase in oil & natural
gas production in US
Attractive location for
major Oil companies
Major supplier of energy
to Europe
Shifting its focus to East
Asia
Supplies to Japan & china
Decline in Exports to US
Increasing capacity
outside borders
Rift between OPEC
nations
Focus on Indo-pacific
region
Large dependence on
middle east
Efforts to develop
unconventional source
of energy to meet
future uncertainty
Future ties with Russia
India has a major reliance on
Middle east for supply of crude
Need to develop internal resources
to meet rising demand
By 2030, India will have the
greatest demand for energy
surpassing China
17. Incentives given by Governments
Tax Incentives
Rebates
Early Retirement Programs
Indirect Subsidies
Subsidized Loans
Property Accessed Clean Energy (PACE) financing
On-Bill Financing
Incentives given by
governments
across the globe to
promote Clean
and Efficient
Energy Usage
19. Researches and New Technologies
Oil & Gas
ENERGY CHALLENGE 19
OIL FROM BITUMINOUS SANDS SHALE GAS
Key success Factors
Improved Drilling Techniques
No of patents doubled from 2005-2010
On going research on biofuels from algae
Innovation in safety in deep sea drilling
Natural Gas storage for vehicular consumption
Minimizing the consequences of pipeline failures
Investments
• More than $1600 billion in 2013
• $130 million to improve efficiency
• Investment in renewable sources of energy
increased from $60 billion in 2000 to $250 billion
in 2013
• By 2035
• Investment required to meet world’s
energy: $2000 billion
• Investment to improve efficiency: $550
billion
2X time
2000Indian Scenario
Doubling the gas price
Deregulation of petroleum
Short-term
measures
Reserve to Production ratio: 20 years
Gas reserves hit by fall in production at KG-D6 basin
Only 22% of basinal area is well explored
Expecting a boost in oil reserves with the implementation
of OLAP
21. Centralized utility grid includes large scale power generation, its transmission
and distribution
Proposed Model: Distributed generation focusses on generating power near to
the point of consumption
ENERGY CHALLENGE 21
22. Centralized utility grid includes large scale power
generation, its transmission and distribution
ENERGY CHALLENGE 22
Source:http://www.roymech.co.uk/Related/Electrics/Electrical_transmission.html
CURRENT CENTRALIZED UTILITY GRID
Large scale power generation plants set up near the
source of energy resources
Requires high investment but provides advantage of
economies of scale
Non renewable resources are still major sources of
electricity production
ISSUES WITH CENTRALIZED UTILITY GRID
Transmission and distribution losses are very high
Limited presence and costly extension of grid has
resulted in 22% of world population with no electricity
Load shedding and breakdown in grids result in power
outages which cause economic losses
Depletion of non renewable energy resources is a
growing concern
23. Proposed Model: Distributed generation focusses on
generating power near to the point of consumption
ENERGY CHALLENGE 23
DEFINING DISTRIBUTED GENERATION
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distributed_generation, http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/distributed-energy-disrupting-the-utility-business-
model.aspx, http://fresh-energy.org/2011/10/energy-101-what-in-the-world-is-distributed-generation/
Distributed generation is also called on-site generation, dispersed
generation, embedded generation or decentralized generation
Power generation is done near or at the site of consumption
Distributed power systems may be off-grid or connected to the grid
Both renewable and non renewable sources of energy can be used
for power generation
The scale can vary from being a micro grid to supply power to a
medium sized society or a stand alone system for a single residence
Can be used to provide continuous, intermittent, peak or even
back-up power
The size of a DG system typically ranges from less than a kilowatt to
a few megawatts
# Combined Heat and Power
#
Income Growth - Size of the “global middle class” will increase from 1.8 billion in 2009 to 3.2 billion by 2020 and 4.9 billion by 2030
The bulk of this growth will come from Asia: by 2030 Asia will represent 66% of the global middle-class population and 59% of middle-class consumption, compared to 28% and 23%, respectively in 2009