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Global gateway to export
2015
Morten Granzau 09. Juni 15
How does the future look for manufac-
turing in Denmark?
Morten Granzau Nielsen
Director of Business Economics
Confederation of Danish Industry
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
Challenges for doing business in
Denmark - identified by DI-members
2
• Inadequate access to labour with the right skills
• Slow growth in productivity and innovation
• High level of cost in Denmark
• A challenged public sector
• Unused opportunities in a global world
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
Political agreements has improved
the conditions of doing business…
• Tax Reform in 2012
• Labour Market reforms (Disability pension, cash benefit, students
grants)
• Growth Plan DK (Vækstplan DK)
• Growth Package 2014
3
… but more needs to be done
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
Productivity is moving in slow motion
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5
Italy
Luxembourg
Mexico
Belgium
Denmark
Spain
Norway
Netherlands
Switzerland
Canada
France
Germany
Portugal
New Zealand
Israel
United Kingdom
Japan
Austria
Finland
Greece
Australia
Sweden
USA
Hungary
Iceland
Czech
Ireland
Turkey
Chile
Slovak republic
Poland
Korea
Labor productivity
Average growth in GDP per hour worked (1995-2013), per cent
Source: OECD
4
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
Denmark has a low growth-potential
5
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
Productivity on the political agenda and on
DI’s agenda…
The Governments Productivity Commission
DI’s Productivity Panel
6
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
… and recently production or manufactu-
ring has received well deserved attention
The Governments Productivity Commission
DI’s Productivity Panel
The Governments Production
Council
7
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
Danish manufacturing employment
has declined significantly
8
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Denmark Germany Holland Finland Sweden Norway
Employment in manufacturing in selected countries
Index 2000=100
Source: Eurostat
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
The Production Council
• Niels B. Christiansen, Danfoss A/S (chairman)
• Peder Holk Nielsen, Novozymes A/S
• Peder Tuborgh, Arla Foods
• Gitte P. Aabo, LEO Pharma A/S
• Helle Vingolf Larsen, FiberVisions A/S
• Jesper Kryhlmand, KMD A/S
• Jacob Himmelstrup, Linimatic A/S
• Birthe Skands, Bryggeriet Skands A/S
• Anne-Lise Høg Lejre, Teknologisk Institut
• Claus Jensen, CO-industri
• Mads Andersen, CO-industri
9
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
The Production Council
• Niels B. Christiansen, Danfoss A/S (chairman)
• Peder Holk Nielsen, Novozymes A/S
• Peder Tuborgh, Arla Foods
• Gitte P. Aabo, LEO Pharma A/S
• Helle Vingolf Larsen, FiberVisions A/S
• Jesper Kryhlmand, KMD A/S
• Jacob Himmelstrup, Linimatic A/S
• Birthe Skands, Bryggeriet Skands A/S
• Anne-Lise Høg Lejre, Teknologisk Institut
• Claus Jensen, CO-industri
• Mads Andersen, CO-industri
10
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
The Production Council had three
objectives:
• Ensure that it continues to be attractive to invest in Denmark.
• Ensure good conditions for development and competitive
production.
• Ensure more competent employees for production.
11
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
Motivation: Manufacturing is
important for the Danish Economy
12
• Jobs with high value-added
• High level of growth in productivity
• A driver for jobs in other sectors
• A main contributor of R&D and Danish exports
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
The Production Councils recommend-
dations from May the 13’th
13
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
My favorites
• Lower and uniform capital gains tax and equity income tax
• Continued competitive corporate tax
• Increased public investments in technological research as well as
business-oriented natural science and health science
• Continued reduction of administrative and economic burdens on
businesses
• Increased focus on production, technology and natural science in
primary and lower secondary school
• Better framework for the recruitment of highly qualified or
specialised foreign labour
14
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
Better conditions are needed for
manufacturing in Denmark
15
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
Denmark has a stronghold in
advanced manufacturing
16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Greece
Spain
Portugal
Belgium
Italy
Netherlands
UK
Finland
Austria
France
Sweden
Germany
Denmark
Luxembourg
Ireland
Per centNote: Export of goods excl. mineral products
Soruce: Eurostat Comext and DI
Up market products share of total export of goods (note), 2013
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
Diversity is a strength
17
Manufacture of food products,
beverages and tobacco
13%
Pharmaceuticals
10%
Manufacture of plastic,
glass and concrete
5%
Basic metals and
fabricated metal products
6%
Manufacture of electronic components
and electrical equipment
12%
Manufacture of
machinery
16%
Other manufacturing
23%
Other sectors
15%
High quality in all parts of Danish manufacturing
Danish up.market export in different sectors, 2013
Source: DI and Statistics Denmark.
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
Diversity is a strength
Top 10 danish up-market products in 2014
Billion DKK
1
Medicaments consisting of mixed or unmixed products for therapeutic or
prophylactic purposes, put up in measured doses
15,8
2 Haemoglobin, blood globulins and serum globulins 9,1
3 Raw furskins of mink, whole, with or without heads, tails or paws 7,7
4 Frozen boneless meat of domestic swine (excl. bellies and cuts thereof) 5,9
5 Insulin and its salts, used primarily as hormones 3,6
6 Hearing aids (excl. parts and accessories) 3,4
7 Waste and scrap of iron or steel, not fragmentised "shredded", not in bundles 2,5
8 Articles of plastics etc. 2,3
9
Diagnostic or laboratory reagents on a backing, prepared, and certified reference
materials
2,3
10 Cultures of micro-organisms (excl. yeasts) 2,2
Eurostat and DI calculations
18
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
And a bettering of companies
competitiveness will help
19
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Per cent
Wages Productivity Exchange rate Relative unit labor costs
Relative unit labor costs, manufacturing
Unit labor costs relative to abroad, changes since 2000
Note: Abroad consists of: Belgium, Czech, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Hungary, Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Finland,
Sweden, UK, Norway, USA and Japan. * 2015 only contains changes in the exchange rate.
Source: Eurostat, BEA, Macrobond, CAO, Danmarks Nationalbank and DI
*
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
However - Bottlenecks in the Labour-
market is not far away
20
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
Conclusion: So how does the future
look for manufacturing in Denmark?
• A little better
• But important to maintain focus – especially if things really are
improving
• A lot still needs to be done - from recommendations to policy
• And initiatives to increase the supply of labour with the right skills
21
Global gateway to export
2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau
22
DI’s 2020-plan “The Road to Higher
Wealth and Prosperity”
An open and prosperous society
with growth and in balance
Increase sales and investments in Denmark and abroad
Danish companies among the most productive and innovative in
the World
Adequate access to world class labour
A public sector in balance, which is smaller and more productive
Vision
A competitive level of cost
Global gateway to export
2015
Morten Granzau 09. Juni 15
How does the future look for manufac-
turing in Denmark?
Morten Granzau Nielsen
Director of Business Economics
Confederation of Danish Industry

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Morten Granzau Nielsen, Dansk Industri

  • 1. Global gateway to export 2015 Morten Granzau 09. Juni 15 How does the future look for manufac- turing in Denmark? Morten Granzau Nielsen Director of Business Economics Confederation of Danish Industry
  • 2. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau Challenges for doing business in Denmark - identified by DI-members 2 • Inadequate access to labour with the right skills • Slow growth in productivity and innovation • High level of cost in Denmark • A challenged public sector • Unused opportunities in a global world
  • 3. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau Political agreements has improved the conditions of doing business… • Tax Reform in 2012 • Labour Market reforms (Disability pension, cash benefit, students grants) • Growth Plan DK (Vækstplan DK) • Growth Package 2014 3 … but more needs to be done
  • 4. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau Productivity is moving in slow motion 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 Italy Luxembourg Mexico Belgium Denmark Spain Norway Netherlands Switzerland Canada France Germany Portugal New Zealand Israel United Kingdom Japan Austria Finland Greece Australia Sweden USA Hungary Iceland Czech Ireland Turkey Chile Slovak republic Poland Korea Labor productivity Average growth in GDP per hour worked (1995-2013), per cent Source: OECD 4
  • 5. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau Denmark has a low growth-potential 5
  • 6. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau Productivity on the political agenda and on DI’s agenda… The Governments Productivity Commission DI’s Productivity Panel 6
  • 7. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau … and recently production or manufactu- ring has received well deserved attention The Governments Productivity Commission DI’s Productivity Panel The Governments Production Council 7
  • 8. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau Danish manufacturing employment has declined significantly 8 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Denmark Germany Holland Finland Sweden Norway Employment in manufacturing in selected countries Index 2000=100 Source: Eurostat
  • 9. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau The Production Council • Niels B. Christiansen, Danfoss A/S (chairman) • Peder Holk Nielsen, Novozymes A/S • Peder Tuborgh, Arla Foods • Gitte P. Aabo, LEO Pharma A/S • Helle Vingolf Larsen, FiberVisions A/S • Jesper Kryhlmand, KMD A/S • Jacob Himmelstrup, Linimatic A/S • Birthe Skands, Bryggeriet Skands A/S • Anne-Lise Høg Lejre, Teknologisk Institut • Claus Jensen, CO-industri • Mads Andersen, CO-industri 9
  • 10. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau The Production Council • Niels B. Christiansen, Danfoss A/S (chairman) • Peder Holk Nielsen, Novozymes A/S • Peder Tuborgh, Arla Foods • Gitte P. Aabo, LEO Pharma A/S • Helle Vingolf Larsen, FiberVisions A/S • Jesper Kryhlmand, KMD A/S • Jacob Himmelstrup, Linimatic A/S • Birthe Skands, Bryggeriet Skands A/S • Anne-Lise Høg Lejre, Teknologisk Institut • Claus Jensen, CO-industri • Mads Andersen, CO-industri 10
  • 11. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau The Production Council had three objectives: • Ensure that it continues to be attractive to invest in Denmark. • Ensure good conditions for development and competitive production. • Ensure more competent employees for production. 11
  • 12. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau Motivation: Manufacturing is important for the Danish Economy 12 • Jobs with high value-added • High level of growth in productivity • A driver for jobs in other sectors • A main contributor of R&D and Danish exports
  • 13. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau The Production Councils recommend- dations from May the 13’th 13
  • 14. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau My favorites • Lower and uniform capital gains tax and equity income tax • Continued competitive corporate tax • Increased public investments in technological research as well as business-oriented natural science and health science • Continued reduction of administrative and economic burdens on businesses • Increased focus on production, technology and natural science in primary and lower secondary school • Better framework for the recruitment of highly qualified or specialised foreign labour 14
  • 15. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau Better conditions are needed for manufacturing in Denmark 15
  • 16. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau Denmark has a stronghold in advanced manufacturing 16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Greece Spain Portugal Belgium Italy Netherlands UK Finland Austria France Sweden Germany Denmark Luxembourg Ireland Per centNote: Export of goods excl. mineral products Soruce: Eurostat Comext and DI Up market products share of total export of goods (note), 2013
  • 17. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau Diversity is a strength 17 Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco 13% Pharmaceuticals 10% Manufacture of plastic, glass and concrete 5% Basic metals and fabricated metal products 6% Manufacture of electronic components and electrical equipment 12% Manufacture of machinery 16% Other manufacturing 23% Other sectors 15% High quality in all parts of Danish manufacturing Danish up.market export in different sectors, 2013 Source: DI and Statistics Denmark.
  • 18. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau Diversity is a strength Top 10 danish up-market products in 2014 Billion DKK 1 Medicaments consisting of mixed or unmixed products for therapeutic or prophylactic purposes, put up in measured doses 15,8 2 Haemoglobin, blood globulins and serum globulins 9,1 3 Raw furskins of mink, whole, with or without heads, tails or paws 7,7 4 Frozen boneless meat of domestic swine (excl. bellies and cuts thereof) 5,9 5 Insulin and its salts, used primarily as hormones 3,6 6 Hearing aids (excl. parts and accessories) 3,4 7 Waste and scrap of iron or steel, not fragmentised "shredded", not in bundles 2,5 8 Articles of plastics etc. 2,3 9 Diagnostic or laboratory reagents on a backing, prepared, and certified reference materials 2,3 10 Cultures of micro-organisms (excl. yeasts) 2,2 Eurostat and DI calculations 18
  • 19. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau And a bettering of companies competitiveness will help 19 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Per cent Wages Productivity Exchange rate Relative unit labor costs Relative unit labor costs, manufacturing Unit labor costs relative to abroad, changes since 2000 Note: Abroad consists of: Belgium, Czech, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Hungary, Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Finland, Sweden, UK, Norway, USA and Japan. * 2015 only contains changes in the exchange rate. Source: Eurostat, BEA, Macrobond, CAO, Danmarks Nationalbank and DI *
  • 20. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau However - Bottlenecks in the Labour- market is not far away 20
  • 21. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau Conclusion: So how does the future look for manufacturing in Denmark? • A little better • But important to maintain focus – especially if things really are improving • A lot still needs to be done - from recommendations to policy • And initiatives to increase the supply of labour with the right skills 21
  • 22. Global gateway to export 2015 09. Juni 15Morten Granzau 22 DI’s 2020-plan “The Road to Higher Wealth and Prosperity” An open and prosperous society with growth and in balance Increase sales and investments in Denmark and abroad Danish companies among the most productive and innovative in the World Adequate access to world class labour A public sector in balance, which is smaller and more productive Vision A competitive level of cost
  • 23. Global gateway to export 2015 Morten Granzau 09. Juni 15 How does the future look for manufac- turing in Denmark? Morten Granzau Nielsen Director of Business Economics Confederation of Danish Industry